Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

electricsurfer47 said:If I were comparing different wars,
would you say the FBI functions for the Russians the same way the SS did for the Germans?

Not quite—the SS actually fought on the front lines; these guys don't really do that.

electricsurfer47 said:Quick question for you guys. If the Russians actually pull the trigger on a full-scale mobilization,

Do you think Western nations should start their own mobilization efforts just to mess with their heads? Like, purely as a psychological move? I'm thinking it might scare them enough to make them back off instead of actually committing to a real draft.

By "Western nations," I mean everyone—every single country in the EU, the US, all of us.

That seems unlikely unless things escalate. If Putin has made up his mind, he will act. If we simply bluff, we only weaken our own position.

We need a smart strategy now. Perhaps finally establishing a no-fly zone.

It’s unlikely we’ll see a mass mobilization in Russia anytime soon. Instead, they’ll probably just pull from the occupied territories under the guise of holding local referendums, which won't do much to improve Russia's long-term standing.

1/9 Without any prior warning, amendments to Russian law were presented to Congress today and immediately pushed through all three readings. It’s a move that pushes Russia toward full-scale mobilization, introducing severe penalties for failing to report for duty, desertion, or refusing to fight.
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2/9 When you pair these shifts with the demands for "immediate"—perhaps even internet-based—referendums across all occupied Ukrainian territories regarding their annexation into Russia, the underlying message becomes quite obvious.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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3/9 The sentiment is this: "You chose to fight us in Ukraine, so now try fighting us within Russia itself—or, more accurately, within what we define as Russia." One can only hope the West recognizes the gravity of this shift.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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4/9 Should foreign units cross the Russian border—even if that border has just been shifted—Putin will undoubtedly use it as a pretext to rebrand the "special operation" as an outright war. This would trigger a pivot toward total mobilization, allow him to target Ukrainian locations he previously avoided, and make those nuclear threats feel significantly less abstract.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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5/9 Some analysts are linking these new measures to the supposed support and approval Putin received from major non-Western powers during the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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6/9 I find that unlikely. My view is that these nations actually signaled to Putin that he needs to wrap this war up as soon as possible and stop acting as though he speaks for the entire non-Western world.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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7/9 China isn't backing Moscow's actions in Ukraine at all, though Beijing's doubts are rarely aired publicly. This time, however, they are being expressed, clearly driven by Chinese initiative. Even at the same summit, Russia's Central Asian allies showed noticeably less deference to Putin than they have in the past.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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8/9 Consequently, Moscow's current maneuvers are designed to either end the conflict quickly or, if that fails, to shift the blame onto others, effectively reframing the invasion of a neighboring country as a defensive war.
Alexander Baunov
@baunov
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9/9 Moscow is betting that this distinction will lend the conflict more legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Russians, granting the White House enough breathing room to continue taking whatever actions they deem necessary.

https://twitter.com/baunov/status/15...caPuH_ixhRDDQA

velvetcyclist95 said:Putin is giving a speech to the nation tonight.

The annexation of "DNR" and "LNR"—if it actually happens—would almost certainly signal a major escalation, given that such moves are never made without a specific motive. Following an annexation, what comes next? Typically, we’d see the "stationing" of troops (Russia has over 250,000 ready) and the mobilization of reservists "within" Russia itself.

John Ramos45 said:It’s unlikely we’ll see a mass mobilization in Russia anytime soon. Instead, they’ll probably just pull from the occupied territories under the guise of holding local referendums, which won't do much to improve Russia's long-term standing.

Who even are these people from the occupied territories???
Are those Ukrainians being forced into it?
Can they actually force Ukrainians to fight their battles for them?

Do you think we'll actually get to that point? Where they all just turn around at once and say, "Enough is enough"? Like, enough fighting for Russia and from now on, we're only standing up for Ukraine?

Do you think we'll ever see China and India actually step up and say "enough is enough," and start giving Ukraine some real help???

Probably not, though it won't do much to help Russia either, which is pretty much the status quo right now. They’re just watching from the sidelines, waiting to see how the dust settles.

John Ramos45 said:It’s unlikely we’ll see a mass mobilization in Russia anytime soon. Instead, they’ll probably just pull from the occupied territories under the guise of holding local referendums, which won't do much to improve Russia's long-term standing.

They've already burned through all their options.

electricsurfer47 said:Who even are these people from the occupied territories???
Are those Ukrainians being forced into it?
Can they actually force Ukrainians to fight their battles for them?

Do you think we'll actually get to that point? Where they all just turn around at once and say, "Enough is enough"? Like, enough fighting for Russia and from now on, we're only standing up for Ukraine?

There are plenty of people being coerced—I was just mentioning yesterday that in parts of Mariupol, men between 18 and 40 have been taken away. Then, about ten days ago, people in Mariupol started getting messages saying mobilization is expected there on September 20th. Most of the DNR soldiers who finished their service or fought earlier—the ones who actually went out to fight for the DNR—are already dead or wounded. A huge chunk of these paramilitary groups are just mobilized civilians; many were literally picked up off the street and sent straight to the front. Naturally, those living in the territories occupied before February 24th are paying the highest price, since they weren't touched as much initially. But now, that could be changing.

electricsurfer47 said:Who even are these people from the occupied territories???
Are those Ukrainians being forced into it?
Can they actually force Ukrainians to fight their battles for them?

Do you think we'll actually get to that point? Where they all just turn around at once and say, "Enough is enough"? Like, enough fighting for Russia and from now on, we're only standing up for Ukraine?

Of course they are.
We're mostly talking about that 2 or 3% in places like Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Kherson who went out of their way to take Russian citizenship when they didn't have to...
The central government is gonna be the first one calling them up to defend the motherland.

Honestly, the Russians would be better off picking up 10,000 of those guys from the occupied areas rather than dragging in 10,000 from Voronjezh or Volgograd...

Alexander Lukashenko just announced they’re prepping for martial law. Meanwhile, Milorad Dodik is over in Moscow—makes you wonder what Vladimir Putin is going to tell him. How likely is it that Dodik or Aleksandar Vučić try making a move in Republika Srpska or Mexico? I highly doubt Dodik is flying to Moscow just to talk about gas prices. Whatever he discusses with Putin, he’ll probably pass right along to Vučić. Then again, I don't think Vučić can actually make it to Moscow, and Dodik is definitely on some blacklists anyway. I recall Vučić whining about something back in November—suggesting things might get messy. Though, honestly, I don't think any of this will help Putin; he's sinking, and Russia is going down with him.

Larry Sanchez7 said:Of course they are.
We're mostly talking about that 2 or 3% in places like Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Kherson who went out of their way to take Russian citizenship when they didn't have to...
The central government is gonna be the first one calling them up to defend the motherland.

Honestly, the Russians would be better off picking up 10,000 of those guys from the occupied areas rather than dragging in 10,000 from Voronjezh or Volgograd...

Then there are those folks from Kharkiv who fled straight into the arms of Russia. Let Denis Pushilin lead the charge—I can't wait for the day that guy finally falls. Total traitor.

The odds of Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vučić actually doing anything to serve Russian interests are slimmer than seeing America resurrected overnight.

electricsurfer47 said:Do you think we'll ever see China and India actually step up and say "enough is enough," and start giving Ukraine some real help???

Honestly? I don't see it happening. China isn't looking to jump on the same side as the USA—they're really just waiting in the wings to swoop in and take over everywhere Russia used to have influence, basically filling the void of the old Russian sphere. And India? They've got their own agenda to play out.

John Ramos45 said:The odds of Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vučić actually doing anything to serve Russian interests are slimmer than seeing America resurrected overnight.

I think Vučić is actually overthinking things—he’s more of a "pragmatist"—but Dodik? Not so much. Though, honestly, you see way more intense nationalism in Republika Srpska than you do in Mexico, so Dodik basically has to play that card to stay relevant. I'm not entirely sure what the vibe is right now, but when I visited, they had all these posters featuring Vladimir Putin and Dodik everywhere. Even if Dodik is just spinning his own narrative, I have to admit he's pretty good at pulling everyone else along—the opposition seems totally lost. We'll just have to wait and see what Dodik posts on his profile; they're likely realizing by now that Russia might not be able to back up their specific plans.

Milorad Dodik was essentially installed via NATO tanks, yet he’s constantly sucking up loans from that very same West just to keep his seat warm for a few more months. This whole performance about Russia and Vladimir Putin is nothing more than cheap propaganda aimed at the masses—people who flee to the States to find work, only to flip back into "patriotic" mode the moment they head home. At the end of the day, if you want to fund your brand of chaos, you do it with Euros and Dollars.

It says here that Belarus is obligated to step up if Russia gets pulled into a war.

http://www.twitter.com/Faytuks/statu...DUmba63NErAAAA

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that Vladimir Putin needs to return the Black Sea peninsula, including Crimea, to its "rightful owners." These comments follow a string of rhetorical setbacks for Putin from the leaders of both India and China over the last few days.
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/s...7YQymyoXqP4VqA

Erdoğan tells Putin: Return Crimea to its 'rightful owners'
The Turkish leader is joining a growing list of heads of state delivering verbal blows to Putin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/retu...-putin-russia/

When asked whether Russia should be allowed to retain Crimea as part of a negotiated end to the war, Erdoğan noted, “These people are our descendants; they are the ones living there. If you were to take this step forward—if you could just walk away from us—you would relieve both the Crimean Tatars and Ukraine. That is what we have always maintained.”

Last week, India's Narendra Modi voiced his concerns regarding the ongoing war waged by the Russian president against Ukraine, and Putin himself admitted that China's Xi Jinping has also expressed "concern."

The Crimean Tatars share deep ethnic, linguistic, and historical ties with Turkey, having lived under the protection of the Ottoman Empire until it was annexed by the Russian Empire in 1783.

Speaking to PBS, Erdoğan mentioned that during last week's meeting with Putin in Uzbekistan, the Russian president gave the impression that he is "ready to end this as soon as possible."

John Ramos45 said:Milorad Dodik was essentially installed via NATO tanks, yet he’s constantly sucking up loans from that very same West just to keep his seat warm for a few more months. This whole performance about Russia and Vladimir Putin is nothing more than cheap propaganda aimed at the masses—people who flee to the States to find work, only to flip back into "patriotic" mode the moment they head home. At the end of the day, if you want to fund your brand of chaos, you do it with Euros and Dollars.

I can confirm this from firsthand experience; it's spot on. The only thing that hasn't clicked for me, or anyone else for that matter, is how much risk Dodik is actually willing to take with this Russian narrative. Knowing how he operates, he isn't about to do anything that puts his own interests at stake.