Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Kate Cook27 said:Alexander Lukashenko just announced they’re prepping for martial law. Meanwhile, Milorad Dodik is over in Moscow—makes you wonder what Vladimir Putin is going to tell him. How likely is it that Dodik or Aleksandar Vučić try making a move in Republika Srpska or Mexico? I highly doubt Dodik is flying to Moscow just to talk about gas prices. Whatever he discusses with Putin, he’ll probably pass right along to Vučić. Then again, I don't think Vučić can actually make it to Moscow, and Dodik is definitely on some blacklists anyway. I recall Vučić whining about something back in November—suggesting things might get messy. Though, honestly, I don't think any of this will help Putin; he's sinking, and Russia is going down with him.

John Ramos45 said:Milorad Dodik was essentially installed via NATO tanks, yet he’s constantly sucking up loans from that very same West just to keep his seat warm for a few more months. This whole performance about Russia and Vladimir Putin is nothing more than cheap propaganda aimed at the masses—people who flee to the States to find work, only to flip back into "patriotic" mode the moment they head home. At the end of the day, if you want to fund your brand of chaos, you do it with Euros and Dollars.

Chloe Jackson15 said:I can confirm this from firsthand experience; it's spot on. The only thing that hasn't clicked for me, or anyone else for that matter, is how much risk Dodik is actually willing to take with this Russian narrative. Knowing how he operates, he isn't about to do anything that puts his own interests at stake.

Joshua Myers432 said:What could those losers possibly attempt in Republika Srpska or Mexico? They're surrounded by NATO countries and bases. They'd be leveled to the ground before Putin even heard what happened.

Lukashenko might look dim, but the guy is just playing dumb. There is zero chance he gets dragged into a war with Ukraine. He didn't jump in back in February when Russia still looked like a serious military power.

Russia's only shot is if they have massive military reserves in the east or if China decides to step in with military aid. The latter sounds like science fiction. Maybe they squeeze out a bit more resource usage plus a mobilization to plug the holes in the front lines. Then they might try to secure those two Sao Paulo-style territories through a referendum or annexation, which would trigger total devastation for everyone involved if the Ukrainians push back. The real question is whether ordinary Russians actually want to die on that front. If they don't, Putin might as well just end it now.

Timothy Williams5 said:Putin (and maybe Shoigu?) are scheduled to address the nation tonight
Is a mobilization coming?
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...35qNUSUE8b7ucw

Chloe Jackson15 said:I can confirm this from firsthand experience; it's spot on. The only thing that hasn't clicked for me, or anyone else for that matter, is how much risk Dodik is actually willing to take with this Russian narrative. Knowing how he operates, he isn't about to do anything that puts his own interests at stake.

loneskipper3 said:The annexation of "DNR" and "LNR"—if it actually happens—would almost certainly signal a major escalation, given that such moves are never made without a specific motive. Following an annexation, what comes next? Typically, we’d see the "stationing" of troops (Russia has over 250,000 ready) and the mobilization of reservists "within" Russia itself.

The authorities in Moscow are essentially recruiting migrants to fight in Ukraine by offering them an expedited path to citizenship. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced that the infrastructure required "to assist the Department of Defense in organizing the enlistment of foreign nationals into military service" will be established at the Saharovo migration center.

Very soon, the Moscow government plans to set up a complete logistical framework at Saharovo to support the Department of Defense in processing foreign citizens for military service. According to Sobyanin’s own blog, city services will ensure that signing these contracts is made as "convenient as possible" for those involved.
On September 20th, the State Duma passed legislation through its second and third readings aimed at simplifying the process of obtaining citizenship. Under this new law, foreign nationals who sign a one-year contract to serve in the Russian Armed Forces can secure citizenship much faster, effectively bypassing the usual "long waits and bureaucratic hurdles."

Previously, the requirement for foreign nationals to qualify for this streamlined citizenship was a minimum three-year service commitment within the Russian Armed Forces.

Kate Cook27 said:It's basically threatening them with weapons just to get more credit lines😁. It's like, "Hey, give us more cash, or we'll start making threats because our people love hearing that stuff," but if the money stops flowing, they won't be able to control the crowds at home.😁

Kenneth Cruz67 said:In my humble opinion, Milorad Dodik could probably just declare independence whenever he felt like it without anyone lifting a finger. I suspect nobody would actually start a war over him; instead, it seems more likely that the Canadians and Americans would just end up bickering over whatever territory is left behind.

The Russian Stock Exchange faced a total meltdown following news and rumors regarding a fresh escalation in the war with Ukraine. Specifically, on Tuesday, September 20, the State Duma passed several wartime laws that tighten penalties for offenses committed during wartime or "military operations." Furthermore, terms like "mobilization" and "state of combat" have been formally integrated into the Penal Code. Investors viewed these legislative shifts, combined with statements from the "LDNR" authorities regarding upcoming referendums to join Russia, as the signal for a new phase of conflict.

The Moscow Exchange index plummeted by 10.5% at its lowest point, eventually clawing back about half of those losses to settle at 2300 points by 4:00 PM Moscow time—marking its first significant drop since August 30. Leading the charge in the sell-off were Polymetal, which tanked 21.05%, Tinkoff, down 15.27%, VK (formerly Mail.ru), shedding 15.3%, and Yandex, which slid 8.7%.

Major energy players weren't spared either, with heavyweights like Novatek falling 8.4%, Gazprom dropping 5.8%, and Rosneft losing 5.28%. Interestingly, the ruble actually moved in opposition to the market collapse, showing unexpected strength despite the chaos; usually, currency fluctuations tend to mirror these kinds of volatile market shifts.

At the opening of the trading session, 10 Chinese yuan were valued at 8,599 rubles, though by 4:00 PM Moscow time, they had drifted toward the 8,559 range. The dollar started the day at 60.3 rubles before settling near 60.16 by midday, while the euro opened at 60.4 rubles and dipped to 60.05 by the middle of the day.

mistyharbor13 said:A few years back, there was actually a simulation of this exact scenario. The American Army would have rolled into Banja Luka within two days, and they probably would have cut off that corridor near Brčko in just a matter of hours.

Timothy Williams5 said:What if these "referendums" are rigged from the jump, designed so the voters reject joining Russia, allowing them to wash their hands of this entire mess in a way that’s frankly laughable?
So, you decide to walk away from our affection and sign the divorce papers with a clear conscience. Then, you just pin all the blame on those puppets of yours out in the borderlands.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:In my humble opinion, Milorad Dodik could probably just declare independence whenever he felt like it without anyone lifting a finger. I suspect nobody would actually start a war over him; instead, it seems more likely that the Canadians and Americans would just end up bickering over whatever territory is left behind.

Timothy Williams5 said:What if these "referendums" are rigged from the jump, designed so the voters reject joining Russia, allowing them to wash their hands of this entire mess in a way that’s frankly laughable?
So, you decide to walk away from our affection and sign the divorce papers with a clear conscience. Then, you just pin all the blame on those puppets of yours out in the borderlands.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:Even if that happened, it still wouldn't settle the situation in Crimea, since it's already been annexed by Russia.

Larry Sanchez7 said:Honestly, it's a long shot, but I was sitting here thinking about this today...
Maybe it's what Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was getting at—that the little gnome is just looking for an exit strategy from this war.

How do you dodge a total defeat? You throw them a referendum, they "reject" the Russians (even though they would've rejected them regardless), and then you pull the troops back.

Save yourself and save Russia at the same time...

Btw, when they address the public, is there any live coverage?