Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

So Vlad, who wanted to play big shot, is out here waving a tiny little lightning bolt (this mobilization nonsense) to try and scare the West, while simultaneously offering a pathetic olive branch with his left hand through prisoner swaps.

I think the bluff was called. Honestly, thank God that at least some of our heroes from Azovstal are safe now.

Kate Lewis3 said:For Ukraine, it doesn't matter. For the European Union, it’s a massive headache because even today, ethnic Russians are causing trouble in the Baltic states. It's a huge political mess.

If we were living in a different era—back when people would have been kicked straight back to Russia for marching with a "Z" symbol—things would be simple. But now? They’re shielded by modern minority rights laws. So, the European Union either has to ditch its core principles (which basically turns into ethnic cleansing) or just accept having a fifth column living right inside its own borders.

Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Honestly, it would be much smarter if they focused on mobilizing those dissatisfied folks who might actually cause trouble later, rather than just trying to churn out more fighters. 😁

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

I’m not super active here, but I lurk enough to give you my two cents on this, since I think a lot of other people feel the same way.

The whole thing isn't about whether Putin has more guys to call up, it's about trying to stir up a massive group of pissed-off people who might start protests or riots or some kind of revolution. If they can't get out of Russia, they’ll either take to the streets or risk their lives at the front. If they flee, whatever, they're gone—but that leaves plenty of others left to go fight in Ukraine.

And yeah, there's definitely a security issue too. In times like these, how are you even supposed to know who's coming through the door and what their actual intentions are?

Later

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Of course not, but you’ve gotta realize this whole thing is a double-edged sword for everyone involved. Letting people flee across the border means Putin has fewer bodies to throw into the meat grinder—though honestly, looking at Russia's population, maybe he won't even blink—but on the flip side, keeping those people trapped inside is a massive headache for him. It creates friction, potential protests, unrest, and general pressure right on his doorstep.

Think about it: if one guy flees toward the Baltics or wherever, even if he gets drafted later, what’s the actual gain versus the potential damage he could do in some trench? In a weird way, letting huge numbers of people cross the border actually ends up helping the regime in the long run.
I get that we're talking about people just trying to dodge a war, and yeah, there's a moral component to it, but it isn't quite as black-and-white as you're making it out to be.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Russia has about 24 million people eligible for military service.
Even if 100,000 or a million of them manage to flee to the States or somewhere else, it doesn't change the math.
They'll just mobilize someone else.


this guy is seeing the exact same thing you are—those folks who were walking around acting all tough with their Z symbols on their chests are the first ones looking for an exit ramp now that mobilization is actually happening.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Just jumping in to build on what my colleague said. Honestly, people who used their influence to put this specific clique in power—and then kept them there by giving 70% of their backing to the war in Ukraine—don't belong in Europe. It feels like these are the types of people who only know how to leave a trail of chaos in their wake.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Seriously though, how many Russians actually have to flee for Putin's plans involving 300k reservists to fall apart?

It’s not even about "cheering" for Ukraine, it’s more about the fact that you guys as a nation really need to wake up and realize what this madman is doing to you as a people (not you personally, 😉) and the total disaster he's leading you toward in the coming years.

Every single dissatisfied person who flees to the States is just one less person who could have made up that critical mass needed to spark your own version of a Maidan.

But hey, I get that it’s probably asking way too much right now, since most of the population hasn't quite been pushed into a corner enough to reach that breaking point yet...

As far as I'm concerned, I'm not against joining the European Union if you follow the rules, apply for a Visa, and then—if it actually works out—just head on in.☕

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

Look, the European Union is just this bloated, slow-moving bureaucratic mess that takes forever to react to anything.

And now we've got this sudden "surge" of Russians arriving, and honestly, nobody knows what their real intentions are. It's a massive security risk—kind of like what happened over in Albania.

Germany already pulled the highway cameras online in the east—they aren't even accessible on the web anymore—basically so people wouldn't see how much traffic is heading toward Poland. And now we're supposed to just let some Russian guy wander in with a smartphone? Great idea.

If you want a real solution, you'd have to set up internment camps for every Russian trying to defect. But that requires massive logistics and extra spending, which is a tough pill to swallow during a recession.

Plus, for certain countries, that kind of thing carries some pretty dark historical baggage.

So, the easiest fix? If you can't make it into the European Union, go to Georgia or Kazakhstan instead.

Kate Lewis3 said:Look, the European Union is just this bloated, slow-moving bureaucratic mess that takes forever to react to anything.

And now we've got this sudden "surge" of Russians arriving, and honestly, nobody knows what their real intentions are. It's a massive security risk—kind of like what happened over in Albania.

Germany already pulled the highway cameras online in the east—they aren't even accessible on the web anymore—basically so people wouldn't see how much traffic is heading toward Poland. And now we're supposed to just let some Russian guy wander in with a smartphone? Great idea.

If you want a real solution, you'd have to set up internment camps for every Russian trying to defect. But that requires massive logistics and extra spending, which is a tough pill to swallow during a recession.

Plus, for certain countries, that kind of thing carries some pretty dark historical baggage.

So, the easiest fix? If you can't make it into the European Union, go to Georgia or Kazakhstan instead.

Man, you're totally missing the point here... seriously, get real. The European Union is already crawling with Russian mercenaries and "spies" or informants. It's not like they need some random Russian guy filming highways... that info is probably already gathered and delivered before he even hits the road.

This whole thing is just a way to pressure Russia—trying to stir the pot domestically to ramp up the heat on Putin and his regime... nothing more than that.

What you're saying makes zero sense; there's absolutely no tactical need for it from the Russian side...
For God's sake. There are probably at least five or six idiots on this forum right now who would happily print out whatever the Russians asked them to... it's not exactly high-level intelligence work to think they need thousands of Russians for infiltration.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

My position is clear: I want the Putin regime to collapse and for Russia to establish some semblance of a normal government. However, that remains science fiction, and the responsibility lies primarily with you—the citizens of Russia. Only you possess the power to change your leadership through legitimate means.
In practical terms, only a relatively small number of people will manage to evade mobilization by fleeing to a safe haven where the authorities cannot reach them without them being labeled refugees. Putin can easily replace those individuals—specifically those who receive a summons and simply vanish—by issuing additional drafts.
As long as the masses choose to run from their problems instead of confronting them and resisting political authorities, there will be no change in policy or governance in Russia. It was the same story in Ukraine until the people rose up en masse against the government during the Maidan; prior to that, the authorities were merely striking out on their own, ignoring the citizens and their demands. (We see a very similar issue here in America, where people are equally reluctant to protest, especially since the risks associated with dissent are virtually non-existent—people have become complacent). It was only the popular uprising in Ukraine that forced a significant shift. Without such action, there was no progress in Ukraine, nor in Russia—and it appears there won't be any meaningful change in America either, unless there is at least some minimal civic action on the streets.

analogbear70 said:This guy hits the nail on the head:

It’s the same point I keep making: the West needs to dial back the rhetoric because Russia isn't going to budge. I'm convinced that de-escalating the tension could actually lead to somewhere productive. Look, let's be real—they have nuclear weapons, and that’s a reality that could end us all. Regardless of how you slice it, we need a voice of reason coming from the West, because right now, there isn't one to be found in Russia, and nobody there seems interested in finding it either.

No, quite the opposite. The West needs to go to DEFCON 1,
beef up support for Ukraine, and immediately ship out a few thousand tanks, artillery pieces, and the latest high-tech weaponry.

electricstag9 said:https://twitter.com/Noel_dotsol/stat...95671446327297
It’s blindingly obvious that a major prisoner exchange has been brokered here. On the flip side, people like Medvedchuk and those Wagner mercenaries have been sent back to Russia...

The pressure from those within Russia who actually value the Wagner lot and Medvedchuk is clearly outweighing Putin's own willpower.

analogbear70 said:This guy hits the nail on the head:

It’s the same point I keep making: the West needs to dial back the rhetoric because Russia isn't going to budge. I'm convinced that de-escalating the tension could actually lead to somewhere productive. Look, let's be real—they have nuclear weapons, and that’s a reality that could end us all. Regardless of how you slice it, we need a voice of reason coming from the West, because right now, there isn't one to be found in Russia, and nobody there seems interested in finding it either.

Yeah, right. Like they'll just head to the negotiating table tomorrow. ☕

Jessica Peterson2 said:Oops, I seem to be experiencing a bit of cognitive dissonance.
Wasn't this entire forum cheering for Ukraine from the very beginning, demanding that the European Union step up and provide support to the Ukrainians?
Am I interpreting this correctly? Are we now pivoting to cheer for more reservists staying behind in Putinistan just so they can be mobilized later?

John, people don't actually know who's stepping up.
It's safe to assume there are plenty of folks who generally align with Putin's policies, just not enough to risk taking a bullet.
It's even more likely that many view Westerners as decadent degenerates and will end up standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the far-right at future protests.
The Baltic states are particularly vulnerable here given their large Russian minorities.

How on earth does it make sense that people aren't fleeing to friendly nations like China, Iran, Venezuela, or North Korea? You could probably just walk right in without any issues at all. 🤔

analogbear70 said:This guy hits the nail on the head:

It’s the same point I keep making: the West needs to dial back the rhetoric because Russia isn't going to budge. I'm convinced that de-escalating the tension could actually lead to somewhere productive. Look, let's be real—they have nuclear weapons, and that’s a reality that could end us all. Regardless of how you slice it, we need a voice of reason coming from the West, because right now, there isn't one to be found in Russia, and nobody there seems interested in finding it either.

So, the suggestion is to just cave to a liar who's playing dumb.

And it goes on like that forever. No. We cannot afford to miss this opportunity to kick him while he's down.
Both Mandic and Tonči Tadić—who, in my view, are far more reliable than Ogorec (who has been practically worshiping Russian strength from the start)—are claiming that Putin is bluffing again, purely for the sake of his domestic audience.

Carol Johnson21 said:So, the suggestion is to just cave to a liar who's playing dumb.

And it goes on like that forever. No. We cannot afford to miss this opportunity to kick him while he's down.
Both Mandic and Tonči Tadić—who, in my view, are far more reliable than Ogorec (who has been practically worshiping Russian strength from the start)—are claiming that Putin is bluffing again, purely for the sake of his domestic audience.

And there won't be any leniency. The European Union is moving forward with tougher sanctions and ramping up weapons shipments.

rowdytiger13 said:John, people don't actually know who's stepping up.
It's safe to assume there are plenty of folks who generally align with Putin's policies, just not enough to risk taking a bullet.
It's even more likely that many view Westerners as decadent degenerates and will end up standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the far-right at future protests.
The Baltic states are particularly vulnerable here given their large Russian minorities.

Exactly this. The Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands all implemented bans on tourist visas for Russians just two weeks ago.
Now, the Finns are the ones in the crosshairs.

Christian Torres3 said:MBS isn't even the main point here. Putin just wants a tiny win in the West—some "humanitarian" gesture or whatever—so he can sit at the table. Why not just release Denis Prokopenko and the rest of the Azov guys already?

Wait, hasn't he already let them go?

I haven't been glued to the news the last few days, but if I remember right, the guy was included in that group released in Turkey.