Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

rowdyraven112 said:Nobody’s sobered up about the war in Ukraine. Not the pro-Ukraine side, not the pro-Russia side. Everyone's just living by "Ignorance is Blessing." It’s going to come back to haunt them one day. ☕

You think so? Even now, when it’s their own skin on the line?
It’s one thing to listen to fairy tales about zombies from Ukraine and the West trying to destroy Russia while being protected by a professional military—the second greatest superpower on earth. It’s a completely different story when you find yourself on the battlefield after only a month of training.

If my memory serves me right, didn't the Russians send their soldiers out near Chernobyl "the other day" only to end up digging themselves into trenches, so I wonder if there's any sign of how those soldiers actually fared🤔

Matthew Young35 said:The perfect scenario would be if Russia stopped threatening nuclear escalation and NATO stepped in directly to push the Russians out of Ukraine entirely.
That isn't going to happen.
Ukraine simply cannot win this war on its own.
Despite how incompetent the Russian military has proven to be, they can still mobilize millions of soldiers without much trouble. They have the capacity to arm them, too.

The Ukrainians refuse to settle for anything less than the full restoration of their stolen territory, yet the Russians have absolutely no intention of giving any of it back. Especially not Crimea.
I struggle to see how this ends well.

If I were forced to search for a compromise, it might look something like this...
Russia could be granted significant autonomy within Ukraine specifically in the DNL and LNR.
Regarding Crimea, the Russians could lease it for 100 years—much like the British handled Hong Kong—with a guarantee that I'm always allowed to maintain a military base there.
In exchange, Ukraine would receive massive economic aid from the West.
Over time, fueled by that economic support, Ukraine could become strong enough that the people in the DNL and LNR wouldn't even want to be associated with Russia anymore. Perhaps not in five or ten years, but certainly in fifty.

The question, naturally, is whether anyone would ever actually agree to such a deal.

Have you been asleep for the last few years? Putin's greatest nightmare, along with his security elites, is seeing the LNR, the DNR, or even just Ukraine itself flourish thanks to Western funding.
They cannot afford to have a success story right on their doorstep that serves as proof to Russians that they can live better lives.

This compromise offers absolutely no guarantees to Ukraine.

Zachary Booth36 said:Have you been asleep for the last few years? Putin's greatest nightmare, along with his security elites, is seeing the LNR, the DNR, or even just Ukraine itself flourish thanks to Western funding.
They cannot afford to have a success story right on their doorstep that serves as proof to Russians that they can live better lives.

This compromise offers absolutely no guarantees to Ukraine.

I agree.
I was merely offering an example of what a compromise might look like.
To be honest, I'm not sure what any other kind of compromise could even look like at this stage.
Without some form of compromise, we're looking at a war of attrition until one side wins, carrying the terrifying risk of escalating into World War III.

Either way, it's a grim situation.

Henry Sullivan4 said:If my memory serves me right, didn't the Russians send their soldiers out near Chernobyl "the other day" only to end up digging themselves into trenches, so I wonder if there's any sign of how those soldiers actually fared🤔

I read somewhere they only had about two years left to live.

hiddeneagle98 said:That’s what I used to think too, but it turns out the Russians found ways to squeeze the French energetically speaking. From what I gather, they’re importing over 30% from Nigeria, and Nigeria is basically playing both sides and pulling them toward Russia... that puts the French in an even tighter spot than everyone else because replacing that much uranium isn't exactly a walk in the park. On top of that, half their nuclear plants are scheduled for major overhauls within the next year... things aren't looking pretty for Macron's administration.

First off, let's get the geography straight: learn the difference between Niger and Nigeria.

Second, importing over 30%? 🤔
Give me a break.
.... between 2005 and 2020, the 138,230 tons of natural uranium imported by France came mostly from just four countries:
Kazakhstan: 27,748 tons (20.1%);
Australia: 25,804 (18.7%);
Niger: 24,787 (17.9%) ;
Uzbekistan: 22,197 (16.1%).

Third, France doesn't just import; they export uranium too.

So, this whole idea about France being energy-dependent? You can only tell that story to total amateurs or Moscow psychopaths... definitely.

Anthony Hill5 said:Medvedchuk has been handed back to Russia as part of this prisoner exchange.

Viktor Medvedchuk, the most prominent captive released by Ukraine in a prisoner swap with Russia , is a close friend of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia Who Had acted as The Kremlin ’ sa primary agent of influence in Ukraine for years

As a high-level advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky Said on Wednesday , in exchange for more Than 200 Ukrainian fighters including commanders of The Azov Battalion , Who have been celebrated as heroes in Ukraine for their last-stand defense of Mariupol, Mr. Medvedchuk—a major political figure and oligarch—was released alongside various Russian pilots and senior military officials. Can we even begin to grasp the implications of such a move? This represents the single largest prisoner exchange seen during this entire seven-month conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/w...-released.html

I can't help but wonder what kind of deals they were making behind closed doors 🤷?

Zachary Booth36 said:Have you been asleep for the last few years? Putin's greatest nightmare, along with his security elites, is seeing the LNR, the DNR, or even just Ukraine itself flourish thanks to Western funding.
They cannot afford to have a success story right on their doorstep that serves as proof to Russians that they can live better lives.

This compromise offers absolutely no guarantees to Ukraine.

👍. Exactly—Putin hated the idea of Ukraine joining the European Union because if Russians see that prosperity is possible, they won't buy into the nonsense being sold to them anymore.

Matthew Young35 said:I agree.
I was merely offering an example of what a compromise might look like.
To be honest, I'm not sure what any other kind of compromise could even look like at this stage.
Without some form of compromise, we're looking at a war of attrition until one side wins, carrying the terrifying risk of escalating into World War III.

Either way, it's a grim situation.

Europe lived through something similar—actually, much worse—for over 50 years. Everything the European Union represents today came about despite the actions of Nazi Germany and the USSR. We have everything we have because we didn't settle for "compromises."

The landings in Normandy, the burning of Dresden, and the reunification of Germany weren't "compromises." The collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR certainly wasn't either.

analogbear70 said:This guy hits the nail on the head:

It’s the same point I keep making: the West needs to dial back the rhetoric because Russia isn't going to budge. I'm convinced that de-escalating the tension could actually lead to somewhere productive. Look, let's be real—they have nuclear weapons, and that’s a reality that could end us all. Regardless of how you slice it, we need a voice of reason coming from the West, because right now, there isn't one to be found in Russia, and nobody there seems interested in finding it either.

Sure, assuming that "deal" looks like Putin sitting down with Biden and demanding that NATO pull back to its 1997 borders just because those other countries are in Russia's "sphere of influence." And then he demands that these newly formed banana republics be recognized by Ukraine, the UN, and every single member state. Oh, and while we're at it, he wants the USA to pull all its weapons out of Europe because they threaten Russia's existence... and Russia has nukes.

Matthew Young35 said:I agree.
I was merely offering an example of what a compromise might look like.
To be honest, I'm not sure what any other kind of compromise could even look like at this stage.
Without some form of compromise, we're looking at a war of attrition until one side wins, carrying the terrifying risk of escalating into World War III.

Either way, it's a grim situation.

A true compromise would involve restoring the status quo ante. Russia could maintain its presence in Crimea, while autonomy remains off the table entirely. NATO membership would also be out of the question.
However, Ukraine could still pursue integration with the European Union and other European institutions.

But that only holds water if we actually believe the Russian narrative—that they only care about Crimea and preventing NATO expansion.
The real objective behind the "special military operation" was something else entirely: expanding the Russian sphere of influence and demonstrating raw power. It is clear that certain actors, such as Viktor Orbán, were already poised to exploit the situation.

Kate Cook27 said:Sure, assuming that "deal" looks like Putin sitting down with Biden and demanding that NATO pull back to its 1997 borders just because those other countries are in Russia's "sphere of influence." And then he demands that these newly formed banana republics be recognized by Ukraine, the UN, and every single member state. Oh, and while we're at it, he wants the USA to pull all its weapons out of Europe because they threaten Russia's existence... and Russia has nukes.

Yeah, honestly, you really have to wonder how much Putin and his supporters think we're just idiots. Like, seriously, incredibly dumb. I mean, if you're literally waging an extermination war, why on earth would you be asking for the defensive alliance fighting your aggression to shrink? And let's not kid ourselves here—even Pravda was reporting that this is basically a war of annihilation against Ukraine (you know, the Final Solution to the Ukrainian question).
I guess the whole point of shrinking NATO would just be to pave the way for more conquest wars, moving Russian borders right up to NATO's doorstep—maybe even reaching Germany this time—so that "free Europe" ends up being just France and whatever is west of France. Russia really is acting like a fourth reich.

boldotter2 said:Europe lived through something similar—actually, much worse—for over 50 years. Everything the European Union represents today came about despite the actions of Nazi Germany and the USSR. We have everything we have because we didn't settle for "compromises."

The landings in Normandy, the burning of Dresden, and the reunification of Germany weren't "compromises." The collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR certainly wasn't either.

I mean, look, it was the Cold War, right? Even if things didn't actually get "hot" over in Europe back then, everyone pretty much knew exactly where one side's backyard ended and the other's began. It was all about those clearly defined spheres of influence.

Donna Harris11 said:I just think people in the Donbas should be able to live their lives, and I hope for peace in Canada.

Most folks from Donbas actually want the Russian occupiers out so they can finally return home and live normal, peaceful lives. And honestly? Anyone who loves Russia so much can just head over there. Most people in Donbas are just waiting for the day the Ukrainian flag flies over Donetsk again—hoping that day eventually comes. They’re also hoping there won't be any deals made with local traitors—no more listening to people suggest Ukrainians should be hung in Times Square or shoved into basements in Donetsk. They just want an end to criminals coming in from Russia, breaking into homes, and kicking families out to make room for themselves. Back in 2019, about 60% of those living in occupied areas wanted Donbas to remain part of Ukraine. As for the arrogant types filled with hate for Ukraine and Ukrainians? They can all just head back to "Mother Russia."
But hey, I fully expect these referendums to show 150% wanting to join Russia. If we could actually count everyone who was killed or driven from their homes, it would probably be 500%.
I don't even know why we're wasting paper here—the results are already scripted. It's just like 2014, where they roll in with guns and force people to vote. 🤔? Or maybe they threaten people with losing their jobs? Or taking away their kids? Meanwhile, the ones being handed food aid are the ones getting off easiest. And of course, you get to vote while standing next to two guys with rifles. Go ahead, check the box saying you *don't* want to be part of Mother Russia. But don't worry—there will be observers from Belarus, Syria, South Korea, and Republika Srpska to ensure everything is "perfectly legal."

Zachary Booth36 said:A true compromise would involve restoring the status quo ante. Russia could maintain its presence in Crimea, while autonomy remains off the table entirely. NATO membership would also be out of the question.
However, Ukraine could still pursue integration with the European Union and other European institutions.

But that only holds water if we actually believe the Russian narrative—that they only care about Crimea and preventing NATO expansion.
The real objective behind the "special military operation" was something else entirely: expanding the Russian sphere of influence and demonstrating raw power. It is clear that certain actors, such as Viktor Orbán, were already poised to exploit the situation.

If you look at this from the Russian perspective, this isn't a compromise. It's a total defeat.

gentlerider7 said:I mean, look, it was the Cold War, right? Even if things didn't actually get "hot" over in Europe back then, everyone pretty much knew exactly where one side's backyard ended and the other's began. It was all about those clearly defined spheres of influence.

Well, there was World War II too. People were making all these compromises with Hitler throughout the 1930s, and yeah, that turned out pretty badly. I guess the absolute worst compromise from that whole era had to be Stalin.

Matthew Young35 said:If you look at this from the Russian perspective, this isn't a compromise. It's a total defeat.

That’s exactly why the goal has to be making sure that when all this is finally over, nobody even gives a damn about how things "look" from the Russian side of the fence.

And honestly, despite all the loudmouths yapping on this forum (and in politics, looking at you, Joe Biden and his crowd), it’s totally doable. In fact, I'm betting it’s actually going to happen. Whether it happens through military force or if the internal power struggles within Russia itself take care of it... who knows? But it’s almost a certainty.

Russia needs to lose... it would be the best outcome for everyone involved, including the Russians themselves (and by that, I mean the actual citizens, obviously, not the regime).

jadetinker85 said:So, did that neighbor you were walking the dog with finally sober up regarding the war in Ukraine?

I honestly have no clue. I’ve actually stopped heading down to that local dog park lately, mostly just to avoid getting provoked by the pro-Putin crowd and having them report me. I’m already sitting on one police warning, so the next time I run into trouble, I could very well end up behind bars🙄
But, considering most of the guys hanging around there are essentially the first ones lined up for mobilization—and none of them exactly look like software engineers—I suspect their enthusiasm for the conflict isn't quite as fiery as it used to be.

Brenda Murphy3 said:That’s exactly why the goal has to be making sure that when all this is finally over, nobody even gives a damn about how things "look" from the Russian side of the fence.

And honestly, despite all the loudmouths yapping on this forum (and in politics, looking at you, Joe Biden and his crowd), it’s totally doable. In fact, I'm betting it’s actually going to happen. Whether it happens through military force or if the internal power struggles within Russia itself take care of it... who knows? But it’s almost a certainty.

Russia needs to lose... it would be the best outcome for everyone involved, including the Russians themselves (and by that, I mean the actual citizens, obviously, not the regime).

There is a difference between what would be ideal and what is actually realistic.

Matthew Young35 said:If you look at this from the Russian perspective, this isn't a compromise. It's a total defeat.

Well, yeah. I guess. ☕