Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

bluemason3 said:There are definitely plenty of other variables at play here. For instance, take the United Kingdom—as an island nation and former maritime power, they naturally over-invest in their navy relative to their size. Russia has its own set of unique circumstances. But you have a point: they likely have fewer people and more high-tech assets. On the flip side, even though Russia has a large population, they aren't paying for all of them, and their production costs might be lower too. Then there's the matter of how budgets are actually structured. I think Perun on YouTube put out a solid video on this exact topic. Some countries fold their coast guard or even territorial forces into the main military budget, while others keep them separate. Plus, if a country has its own defense industry, they’re essentially reinvesting a huge chunk of those costs back into themselves.

In the end, for those of us playing military analyst, we're left with nothing but impressions. Before this war started, most would have bet on the Russian side, though that really depends on which military sentiment you subscribe to. Nowadays, the smart money would probably go toward the United Kingdom. Who knows how much of any of this is actually accurate?

Look, I know it's not some exact science, but just thinking through the logic of it...

-How many people or pieces of tech do you actually need to secure your borders?
-How much aviation is required to cover the entire airspace?
-How much air defense do you need to protect the whole territory?
-And how much of the budget has to be carved out just for logistics to make sure everything stays supplied across a massive protected area if things ever truly hit the fan?

Just looking at those points, the UK seems to have a massive advantage over a crazy-sized place like Russia, even when you're looking at similar budget levels. And that's not even accounting for any money getting lost to corruption.

The navy has always been a major strength for Great Britain, but from what I can tell, the Russian fleet isn't exactly nothing in terms of pure numbers either...

I've been sitting here thinking about this move Putin just made

Honestly, I feel like Europe, the US, and everyone else in NATO really need to kick weapon production into high gear right now.
Just so we're actually ready if things start escalating.

William Cooper11 said:According to Wikipedia, the population in Alaska is only about a million people. It looks like Putin is driving them straight into a demographic death spiral with this mobilization, and I honestly wonder who’s going to be left to guard the border against China after he's done.

They're basically just mass-gathering cannon fodder out in the Pacific Northwest—keeping it all out of sight and away from anyone with a functioning brain.

Anchorage

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...72105867874304

Portland

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...18790060298241

A small town near Seattle

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...20395308519425

Zabaykalsky Krai (bordering Mongolia)

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...34135542206466

There’s some activity coming out of DC too, but it doesn't even come close to the scale of what's happening in those remote areas.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...81395022303233

The Dagestanis are complaining at every single turn; they've already paid their blood tax to the leader in DC right alongside the Buryat folks.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...66979937386498

This guy is well on his way to turning Ukraine into the biggest slaughterhouse we've seen since World War II.

hollowdriver13 said:They're basically just mass-gathering cannon fodder out in the Pacific Northwest—keeping it all out of sight and away from anyone with a functioning brain.

Anchorage

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...72105867874304

Portland

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...18790060298241

A small town near Seattle

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...20395308519425

Zabaykalsky Krai (bordering Mongolia)

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...34135542206466

There’s some activity coming out of DC too, but it doesn't even come close to the scale of what's happening in those remote areas.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...81395022303233

The Dagestanis are complaining at every single turn; they've already paid their blood tax to the leader in DC right alongside the Buryat folks.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...66979937386498

This guy is well on his way to turning Ukraine into the biggest slaughterhouse we've seen since World War II.

And then you've got these idiots who are thousands upon thousands of miles away from UA, acting like they need to fly in to "liberate" them. Honestly, they are just brain-dead.

Disturbing.

Italian news just reported that 10,000 people have already volunteered, yet the protests aren't letting up. Anyone caught by the police during these demonstrations is being forcibly conscripted...

Meanwhile, Lavrov is rambling on about how this is an intervention against the fascist-Nazi regime in Kyiv that the West is backing.

China is pushing for a diplomatic solution, insisting that humanitarian organizations must be granted safe access to help the population and that exports of Ukrainian and Russian grain must be guaranteed.

Sandra Harris2 said:Disturbing.

Italian news just reported that 10,000 people have already volunteered, yet the protests aren't letting up. Anyone caught by the police during these demonstrations is being forcibly conscripted...

Meanwhile, Lavrov is rambling on about how this is an intervention against the fascist-Nazi regime in Kyiv that the West is backing.

China is pushing for a diplomatic solution, insisting that humanitarian organizations must be granted safe access to help the population and that exports of Ukrainian and Russian grain must be guaranteed.

A $1,700 bonus sounds tempting to most Americans. I’m just not sure what that money is worth when you're five feet under.
The bottom-of-the-barrel types being recruited from prisons might actually see it as an option. Those facing life sentences in some of the worst penitentiaries in the world might get lucky and swap a lifetime behind bars for six months of service. Even then, they're being told straight up that their survival odds are slim—but maybe dying in combat is better than rotting in a cell.

Sandra Harris2 said:Disturbing.

Italian news just reported that 10,000 people have already volunteered, yet the protests aren't letting up. Anyone caught by the police during these demonstrations is being forcibly conscripted...

Meanwhile, Lavrov is rambling on about how this is an intervention against the fascist-Nazi regime in Kyiv that the West is backing.

China is pushing for a diplomatic solution, insisting that humanitarian organizations must be granted safe access to help the population and that exports of Ukrainian and Russian grain must be guaranteed.

Lavrov let slip some nonsense about Nazis in Kyiv being supported by the West and stormed out of the session; now I see some folks here claiming we actually have to play nice with those kinds of assholes.
View on twitter

China's statement is interesting—they don't seem to view anyone as a Putin ally, even in their wildest rhetoric.

“Sovereignty and territorial integrity of All countries should be respected , ” Wang says about China's stance on the #warinUkraine.

gentlestag15 said:Lavrov let slip some nonsense about Nazis in Kyiv being supported by the West and stormed out of the session; now I see some folks here claiming we actually have to play nice with those kinds of assholes.
View on twitter

China's statement is interesting—they don't seem to view anyone as a Putin ally, even in their wildest rhetoric.

“Sovereignty and territorial integrity of All countries should be respected , ” Wang says about China's stance on the #warinUkraine.

I don't know why Americans have suddenly started poking the bear regarding Taiwan. It’s almost as if they’re intentionally pushing the public toward Russia's side.
They need to chill out and let China breathe so they'll actually align with the West.

Terry Green3 said:I don't know why Americans have suddenly started poking the bear regarding Taiwan. It’s almost as if they’re intentionally pushing the public toward Russia's side.
They need to chill out and let China breathe so they'll actually align with the West.

The escalation in that region has been going on for years now.

gentlerider7 said:Sure, but you actually have to be brave enough to pull it off; even nobody dared to take out Stalin.

Perhaps not, but they simply stood by and let him die. They didn't lift a finger to help when he was fading. In fact, maybe they even gave him a little nudge toward the exit.

Nathan Evans78 said:According to some folks on here, they can barely afford basic necessities in Moscow, yet they’re still busy spreading rumors about mobilizing a million people. I mean, seriously, hello? Who on earth is going to foot the bill for that? 🙂

Just look back at how things went during WWII. Supply trucks weren't carrying much besides fuel and ammo. They basically expected the soldiers to just "liberate" food from the locals to keep themselves fed.

Terry Green3 said:I don't know why Americans have suddenly started poking the bear regarding Taiwan. It’s almost as if they’re intentionally pushing the public toward Russia's side.
They need to chill out and let China breathe so they'll actually align with the West.

China is playing its own game here. They're balancing their interests between Russia and the West, but you can pretty much convince them to get fully on your side only if you hand Taiwan over on a silver platter—or threaten them with total sanctions, though God knows how that would actually play out.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Perhaps not, but they simply stood by and let him die. They didn't lift a finger to help when he was fading. In fact, maybe they even gave him a little nudge toward the exit.

Seeing how people ignored Joseph Stalin during the purges, or how they practically begged him to come back from his dacha after Barbarossa started, doesn't exactly give me much hope for seeing Putin replaced.
It’s just how some people are—stubborn and unapologetic, much like us Americans.

bluemason3 said:The UK and France have military budgets about four to five times larger than Poland’s, while Greece sits at roughly half of what Poland spends.

In terms of raw numbers, the UK and France look similar to Russia, or even Germany.

But looking at Germany—given everything we know about their current state—and the sheer dysfunction exposed in the Russian military, it’s clear you can't just trust the raw data. It all depends on how those budgets are reported, where the money actually goes, and how efficiently it's being spent.

If the UK and Russia had the exact same amount of cash to work with, I might have leaned toward Russia back in the day because of their lower overhead. But today? Given the blatant Russian corruption, their systemic dysfunction, and how far they've fallen behind technically and tactically, I’d take the UK's money any day.

Of course, as long as these conflicts are happening far away from home, I’d give the upper hand to whichever country is defending its own backyard.

The real question is simply how much of that military budget gets embezzled. In my estimation, the Russians are champions in that particular discipline, which makes a naked spending figure somewhat meaningless. One must also consider what kind of hardware is being purchased, who is doing the planning, and what motives drive those planners. The Russians opt for cheaper weaponry, but their fundamental issue lies in incredibly long development cycles; by the time their equipment reaches operational use and is deployed in sufficient quantities, it is already obsolete. Furthermore, the Russians rarely iterate on their designs. The West, conversely, is constantly refining and upgrading its systems, often to the point where early versions of complex combat platforms bear little resemblance to their later iterations.

Nancy Gomez26 said:The real question is simply how much of that military budget gets embezzled. In my estimation, the Russians are champions in that particular discipline, which makes a naked spending figure somewhat meaningless. One must also consider what kind of hardware is being purchased, who is doing the planning, and what motives drive those planners. The Russians opt for cheaper weaponry, but their fundamental issue lies in incredibly long development cycles; by the time their equipment reaches operational use and is deployed in sufficient quantities, it is already obsolete. Furthermore, the Russians rarely iterate on their designs. The West, conversely, is constantly refining and upgrading its systems, often to the point where early versions of complex combat platforms bear little resemblance to their later iterations.

I mean, sure, the French and the British probably skim some defense funds too, but we don't see all their generals living in massive ten-thousand-square-foot mansions or owning a dozen properties overseas and a car collection that even the guys on > haven't touched.

Terry Green3 said:Seeing how people ignored Joseph Stalin during the purges, or how they practically begged him to come back from his dacha after Barbarossa started, doesn't exactly give me much hope for seeing Putin replaced.
It’s just how some people are—stubborn and unapologetic, much like us Americans.

Those types of leaders surround themselves with sycophants. Anyone else would be far too dangerous to have near a "great leader." So, eventually, the old yes-men are swapped out for a fresh batch of cowards. These lackeys are useful—they follow orders without question or critical thought—and they fancy themselves "pillars of the system." But when you spend years surrounded by such people, you lose your grip on reality. A circle of bootlickers will always flatter the ego; they never offer any actual resistance to the leader's whims.

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, sure, the French and the British probably skim some defense funds too, but we don't see all their generals living in massive ten-thousand-square-foot mansions or owning a dozen properties overseas and a car collection that even the guys on > haven't touched.

I find that hard to swallow, though they certainly squander money in other ways. Take aircraft carrier development, for instance. Both France and the United Kingdom pour resources into developing their own carriers. It’s an astronomical cost, only for them to end up with maybe one or two vessels. In the US, development is just as pricey, but at least we produce a dozen ships over twenty or thirty years. Then you have the jet fighters needed for those carriers. Same story there—massive R&D costs—but they fare slightly better by producing about fifty units over the carrier's lifespan. A fortune is spent, yet the strategic impact remains marginal. Americans actually see a return on investment because we maintain actual scale.

Americans also have an edge when it comes to exporting aircraft (though not ships), which really helps drive down costs by boosting overall production capacity.

bluemason3 said:Americans also have an edge when it comes to exporting aircraft (though not ships), which really helps drive down costs by boosting overall production capacity.

Dobojska school of accounting.

Nancy Gomez26 said:I find that hard to swallow, though they certainly squander money in other ways. Take aircraft carrier development, for instance. Both France and the United Kingdom pour resources into developing their own carriers. It’s an astronomical cost, only for them to end up with maybe one or two vessels. In the US, development is just as pricey, but at least we produce a dozen ships over twenty or thirty years. Then you have the jet fighters needed for those carriers. Same story there—massive R&D costs—but they fare slightly better by producing about fifty units over the carrier's lifespan. A fortune is spent, yet the strategic impact remains marginal. Americans actually see a return on investment because we maintain actual scale.

Yeah, but what they're really "buying" is total control over the tech. It means they aren't stuck wondering if Americans will pull the plug on a sale or hit a red button to shut down a plane mid-flight if things go south. Actually, it's even better than that—since they make the missiles and gear they sell, they can basically cut others off whenever they feel like it, or just play nice to get what they want (like when the UK asked France to sabotage those Exocets during the Falklands).