rustywalker82 said:Look, a total cutoff of Russian gas is only going to happen if Russia pulls the trigger themselves (since the West doesn't have any rubles to play with). This wouldn't be some big move by Europe; it’d be a Russian move.
And honestly? Gas wouldn't get cheaper. It’d stay way more expensive than it was before the crisis or the war started. We'd still be importing from Russia because, let's face it, they're basically irreplaceable right now (plus, we'd be scrambling to fire up old coal or fuel oil plants that have been sitting cold for years).
There's just no easy way to swap out major suppliers—especially when you're looking at places halfway across the world—without both the old providers and the new ones, along with the logistics companies, hiking up their rates.
There are definitely ways to seriously cripple the Russian economy without all this nonsense about people shooting themselves in the foot (which would just cause a crash even harder than the one the Russians are facing).
Everything has a solution, especially if we start from the premise—the actual fact—that there is enough gas to go around.
First off, (setting Russia aside for a moment), the goal of oil and gas producers isn't necessarily to drive energy prices so high that they suffocate the economies of those who depend on their fuels.
The logic is straightforward: you want to make a healthy profit from production, which ensures you have a reliable customer for your energy.
If I slash my production and spike energy costs, you end up making less money, which means you have less capital available to buy my energy. It's basic math!
Specifically, Putin issues an order to stop supplying gas to the West (Germany is currently bracing for this exact scenario; their minister just officially declared an "emergency plan" today)... In theory, this could weaken the Western economy, leaving them with less cash to buy gas and oil from other producers, and even less money to buy processed goods from China.
China and the major global oil and gas producers (aside from Russia) aren't exactly thrilled with the Russian decision either. (Just like the West, Russia stands to lose here).
Possible solutions? Other producers who rely on selling gas and oil are ramping up production and working alongside the West to find ways to replace Russian gas, simply because they are worried about their own sales volume...
China, being a massive consumer of Russian gas, actually prefers that the West keeps buying products from them; weakening the Western economy is absolutely not in their interest.
No matter how you slice it, the big players... purely out of self-interest... are not on Russia's side. So, it is entirely possible that in the end, the Russians will be the only ones left holding the bag.
Best regards,
