Sanctions on Russia

Nancy Gomez26 said:The logic behind sanctions is to inflict more damage on the target than on the entity imposing them. But looking at the big picture, sanctions tend to hurt everyone involved. Generally speaking, these measures only carry weight when implemented by an economically superior power. In this instance, it isn't really about whether 'only' 35 nations are participating; it’s about the actual economic muscle behind those specific countries. Once you weigh their combined financial power, you get a much clearer idea of who is actually pulling the strings and how far their reach extends.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Everything you just laid out implies that, for investors, this is precisely the moment to pick up stakes in Nord Stream 2 (assuming, of course, the price is right and fits one's tolerance for the very real risk and uncertainty involved). My view is that gas from the Russian Federation remains—technologically speaking—the most cost-effective energy source for the foreseeable future. Since the only way to deliver it without losing its primary advantage is via pipeline, now is the window to invest. You buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive. While many see today's situation as a living hell due to the war, others may see it as a compelling investment opportunity. It simply requires capital, vision, and a certain level of nerve. Who dares, wins.

hollowdriver13 said:It's not Bolsonaro's lapdog barking because of your precious Putin; they're barking to protect themselves and their own regime. Tough times ahead for those wannabe dictators.

steelfox98 said:You completely missed the point that 160 other nations are acting and thinking the exact same way. But sure, let's pretend we're incredibly special and that nobody else's opinion matters. The fact that no one outside our little chosen club wants to join us? Pure coincidence, clearly. 🤣

hollowdriver13 said:Nord Stream 2 is dead in the water. Between Europe cutting ties and the status of Nord Stream 1, Yamal, Brotherhood, and Soyuz, there is zero chance Nord Stream 2 ever becomes profitable again.
Its only purpose was to further tighten Europe's reliance on Russian gas.

slyfox43 said:I mean, I get it. It’s just pretty amusing to watch a colleague—who wasn't exactly a huge fan of Bolsonaro a while back—suddenly trying to find "fundamental differences" with his new moral compass, Maduro.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It isn't just that those pipelines will return to full capacity—new ones will likely be built because current supply won't cut it. Biology always wins in the end; wars eventually cease, and life moves forward regardless. It might be hard to wrap your head around right now, but it's inevitable. The only variable left is how long it takes. Given how deeply ingrained these habits are and the universal drive for comfort... it probably won't be a long wait.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It isn't just that those pipelines will return to full capacity—new ones will likely be built because current supply won't cut it. Biology always wins in the end; wars eventually cease, and life moves forward regardless. It might be hard to wrap your head around right now, but it's inevitable. The only variable left is how long it takes. Given how deeply ingrained these habits are and the universal drive for comfort... it probably won't be a long wait.

feralnomad35 said:I mean, seriously, what reason would there be for Europe not to slash its reliance on peak Russian oil & gas?

feralnomad35 said:I mean, seriously, what reason would there be for Europe not to slash its reliance on peak Russian oil & gas?

Nancy Gomez26 said:The cost of the LNG technological process. At the end of the day, everything boils down to money. Look, I’ve always been an advocate for diversifying supply channels for all raw materials and fuels—that’s just sound policy. You can't afford to be in a position where you depend on a single supplier; if you do, you're finished, regardless of who that supplier happens to be. Sure, gas from Russia is likely the cheapest option, but only if you have a backup plan tucked away somewhere—like a minimum number of functioning LNG terminals. Once a Rus (or anyone else) realizes they can hold you hostage through supply, you've already lost. The Russians are decent partners, in a sense; they start squeezing you the moment they spot your dependency. Others might let you drift too far out before pulling the plug, making it impossible to return, but not them. They make sure to remind you, quite conscientiously and right on schedule, that relying on them isn't worth the price. Some would call them impatient or greedy. I simply say they are diligent when pointing out your own weaknesses.

George Robinson43 said:Returning to Russian energy would essentially mean the leadership in the European Union is suffering from severe cognitive decline.
It isn't enough to just diversify supply and cut ties with Russia; they absolutely must initiate a strategic repatriation of industries from the East back into the European Union.
Just twenty years ago, the current situation would have been unthinkable, as those currently acting so boldly on the world stage lacked any real capital—wealth only began flowing to them once the West stopped investing heavily and moved production overseas.
If this doesn't serve as a wake-up call for the West, then I truly don't know what it will take for them to realize that others are going to use their own money to devour them.

slyfox43 said:If you had written this, say, six months ago, it might have carried some weight. Honestly, even then it would have been a stretch, but at least you'd be in good company with those assessments.

Since then, the Russians have... how should I put it?... diversified their methods of extortion.

So... calculating the true "price of cheap" requires a bit more time and depth than this. This is really just one dimension of a much larger problem.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That group—those who had nothing and then grew wealthy off gas and oil—has developed a taste for luxury. They won't walk away from it easily. It would be far simpler for the European Union to abandon Russian gas than it would be for those people to give up the money constantly flowing into their pockets (since, theoretically, the European Union has alternatives). Let's take a moment to remember where and how that money was spent and invested... Essentially, they sold resources to the West and then turned around and reinvested that cash right back into the West. What could be better for the West? This entire situation is merely a passing storm—a miscalculation, an ego trip—but it will pass. Gas and oil will flow again under even more favorable terms, and everything will return to its status quo. Perhaps there will be more caution next time, and everyone will be satisfied. Civilization is built on cheap energy; there is simply no alternative.
Had they invested their resource profits into their own nation, they probably wouldn't be at war right now. Even if they had gone to war, they might have actually won if they had believed in themselves and their own state. But they didn't. They invested in the West—which is now investing in the very people who attacked them.

George Robinson43 said:To put it plainly, dumping all that money into Western ventures did very little for society at large—unless you consider oligarchs buying luxury toys like soccer teams or renting out mega-yachts to be "useful" for the West.
The idea that things will simply revert to the old status quo is becoming a fantasy, especially now that countries like Poland and the Baltic states have already begun pivoting toward LNG to replace Russian gas entirely.
Then you have Germany, Austria, and little Canada, which will likely remain beholden to Russian energy producers even after the European Union officially breaks ties, simply because that’s what the boss in the Kremlin demands.
Don't forget that half of the European Union—everything west of Germany—has long since rejected Russian gas and halted any possible pipeline construction heading toward their borders.

Paul Anderson7 said:I was wondering how Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium are currently handling their gas imports from Russia.

Paul Anderson7 said:I was wondering how Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium are currently handling their gas imports from Russia.