Sanctions on Russia

Paul Anderson7 said:I agree that we can't just stop buying oil and gas overnight, but we really need to go all-in on developing alternative sources and keeping our imports from Russia at the absolute bare minimum.
We also shouldn't cave to the idea of paying in Rubles; if Russia decides to cut us off because we won't play that game, then fine, let Putin be the one to make that move.

As it stands, the current energy bans aren't doing much to provide immediate relief for Ukraine, and honestly, they might actually end up hurting public sympathy and the overall sense of unity within the European Union.

Regarding that whole Ruble payment issue? It’s useless to them. Seriously, absolutely nothing. The Russians can't go out and buy anything with it anyway. Even their friends in China aren't going to swap Rubles for hard currency.

That's why I think Putin’s little decision was actually aimed at something else entirely—basically squeezing his own oligarchs. He's making them illiquid.

Their Dollars and Euros are frozen, and frankly, Ruble nobody cares about.

George Robinson43 said:In two years, gas will only be a necessity for Germany and Austria. Other nations will have transitioned by 2023. Of course, Canada has already made its choice to stand with Russia.

What about Slovakia?

stormygardener15 said:What about Slovakia?

https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22849352/...s-for-now.html

In response to the increasing tensions, Slovakia has also started importing liquefied gas by tankers, the first of which should arrive in March with enough gas to cover Slovakia's needs for One Week.

So, they basically need one tanker a week (shipped via Poland), though they could always link up with other Baltic projects via pipelines starting in 2023. They import roughly 3.5 billion cubic meters, which isn't an impossible amount to replace.
Their real headache is oil. Slovnaft is entirely owned by MOL, which acts as a Russian outpost in Central Europe.
I was just reading about how the Czech government wants to take a stake in a Polish LNG terminal to aggressively invest and boost capacity.
At the end of the day, the Poles and Lithuanians were the true visionaries here. They built massive terminals and are constructing pipelines toward the North Sea. They cut ties with the Russians and pivoted straight to deals with Equinor.

stormygardener15 said:What about Slovakia?

We can't survive without Russian gas, so if they turn off the tap, everything goes to hell.☕

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idAFL2N2W10HE

Putin is hitting back. 😬

In retaliation for the sanctions, Russia is now restricting visas for citizens from certain "unfriendly" European Union nations, as well as for people from Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, and Iceland.

Russia imposes visa restrictions on citizens of 'unfriendly countries'

Also: following the events in Bucha, Macron is calling for even tougher sanctions against Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that more sanctions on Russia were needed after Ukraine accused Russian forces of The Killing of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

rustywalker82 said:That's just pure hallucination. Germany is actually one of the biggest donors to Ukraine. Not only that, but they’re a massive contributor to those trillions from the European Union funds—money the EEC clearly didn't just dump into decarbonization or cutting down on Russian oil and gas consumption. Instead, they used it to boost standards for personal cars, build highways, and other stuff that basically ends up indirectly funding Russia.

On top of that, Germany has been a huge advocate for Ukrainian sovereignty and was a co-author of the Minsk agreements. For nearly eight years, they kept pushing for those deals to be honored, even right before the full-scale Russian invasion when the German Chancellor traveled to meet Zelenska, urging him to finally implement those key parts of the agreement.

The real hallucination here is thinking that sausage makers are filling the Russian budget with billions? Wow, if anything is a delusion, it’s your refusal to face reality.

Germany is essentially the chief benefactor of a mirage; what they've given to Ukraine is mere pocket change, a desperate attempt to wash their dirty conscience because they are actually the primary financiers of Russia. The Russian war machine is running on German money. 🙂 In practical terms, Germany has financed this entire aggression. 🍿

Justin James10 said:The real hallucination here is thinking that sausage makers are filling the Russian budget with billions? Wow, if anything is a delusion, it’s your refusal to face reality.

Germany is essentially the chief benefactor of a mirage; what they've given to Ukraine is mere pocket change, a desperate attempt to wash their dirty conscience because they are actually the primary financiers of Russia. The Russian war machine is running on German money. 🙂 In practical terms, Germany has financed this entire aggression. 🍿

The Germans finally realized they messed up, but you can't just fix structural issues overnight.
The German Defense Minister claims military aid is ramping up, though she's being tight-lipped about specifics to avoid making life easier for Russian spies.
Truth is, they don't even have much hardware ready to go—they're having to order straight from the manufacturers. In my opinion, instead of pouring everything back into their own military, they should be funneling a huge chunk directly into Ukraine (which is what the Swiss should be doing too, rather than buying useless jets for themselves).
Sanctions could definitely be tightened in certain trade sectors—especially tech—by leaning on non-EU countries to back them, using the threat of cutting ties if they don't.
The EU and the USA need to play the "we're the bigger, wealthier, and more secure market" card, especially when dealing with China or India...

The Board of Governors at the World Bank has officially sanctioned a series of aggressive measures against Russia and Belarus, effectively cutting off both nations from any access to their financing and technical expertise.

https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/st...BLVglXiAQ&s=19

Andrew Miller102 said:We can't survive without Russian gas, so if they turn off the tap, everything goes to hell.☕

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idAFL2N2W10HE

It isn't possible right now, but unlike Schwab, they can swap out their 3.5 billion cubic meters relatively quickly.
On the other hand, it's much harder for Schwab to replace their 50+ billion than it is for the Slovaks to find a substitute for their 3.5.
Oil is actually a far more pressing issue for them since they sold their supply to those strategically aligned with Russia, leaving decisions regarding oil entirely in the hands of Viktor Orbán and his crew.

Andrew Miller102 said:We can't survive without Russian gas, so if they turn off the tap, everything goes to hell.☕

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idAFL2N2W10HE

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2022-04-04/

Can someone drop that more recent article where the PM basically told them they can blow all they want, because there's no way they're seeing any payments in rubles.

Someone on another thread actually accused me of "swallowing everything Western media feeds them" just because I posted export data pulled straight from the UN, IMF, and OECD.

If you look at the Harvard atlas, you can see the visual and numerical breakdown of exports by sector. I didn't dive too deep into the weeds, but honestly, looking at the numbers, Russia looks unexpectedly pathetic—even for my low expectations.

atlas

For anyone who thinks comparing data is wrong, check out this comparison of exports between Russia, Spain, and Slovakia. It caught me off guard that Slovakia actually out-exports Russia in textiles, vehicles (that category covers land, water, air, motorized, and non-motorized, so don't get bogged down in details), machinery, and electronics.

US agriculture - $66bn, Russia - $39bn, Slovakia - $6
textiles - Spain - $26bn, Russia - $2.4bn, Slovakia - $4
chemicals - Spain - $52bn, Russia - $27bn, Slovakia - $6
vehicles - Spain - $63bn, Russia - $8bn, Slovakia - $32
machinery - Spain - $31bn, Russia - $9bn, Slovakia - $12
electronics - Spain - $18bn, Russia - $4bn, Slovakia - $13
bricks, blocks, stone - Spain - $2bn, Russia - $0.5bn, Slovakia - $0.2
ceramics - Spain - $4bn, Russia - $0.3bn, Slovakia - $0.08
glass - Spain - $1.5bn, Russia - $0.8bn, Slovakia - $0.5
metal processing - Spain - $27bn, Russia - $40bn, Slovakia - $8
rare metals and stones (unprocessed) - Spain - $1.5bn, Russia - $18bn, Slovakia - $0.4
minerals - Spain - $24bn, Russia - $230bn, Slovakia - $3

After that, I went digging through some Russian sources and stumbled onto even more interesting stuff. I’m using the websites of their major trade fairs as a reliable proxy for what's happening on their side.

Machinery and equipment average imports sit at 46%.

1
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Caterpillar – 95%
Drilling & boring equipment – 50%
USA – 50%
USA – 60%
John Deere – -57%
John Deere – -52%
John Deere – -51%
Cargill – -50%
Forage harvesters - -49%
Cultivators - -47%

And here is a bit from those Russian sources regarding where they stand with medical equipment and pharmaceuticals.
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Justin James10 said:The real hallucination here is thinking that sausage makers are filling the Russian budget with billions? Wow, if anything is a delusion, it’s your refusal to face reality.

Germany is essentially the chief benefactor of a mirage; what they've given to Ukraine is mere pocket change, a desperate attempt to wash their dirty conscience because they are actually the primary financiers of Russia. The Russian war machine is running on German money. 🙂 In practical terms, Germany has financed this entire aggression. 🍿

Germany helped Ukraine move toward peace by mediating through the Minsk agreement.
But nothing is set in stone. If someone doesn't want peace, they aren't going to get it.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Putin is hitting back. 😬

In retaliation for the sanctions, Russia is now restricting visas for citizens from certain "unfriendly" European Union nations, as well as for people from Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, and Iceland.

Russia imposes visa restrictions on citizens of 'unfriendly countries'

Also: following the events in Bucha, Macron is calling for even tougher sanctions against Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that more sanctions on Russia were needed after Ukraine accused Russian forces of The Killing of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

He won't be getting any sleep tonight worrying about those sanctions of his. 🤣

Besides, trying to economically corner a superpower and bleed it dry through sanctions usually ends badly. Just ask the people in Hawaii back in 1941.

rustywalker82 said:Germany helped Ukraine move toward peace by mediating through the Minsk agreement.
But nothing is set in stone. If someone doesn't want peace, they aren't going to get it.

What fools the Ukrainians were. Germany essentially handed them everything on a silver platter by trading away territory to Russia in exchange for mere cubic meters of gas and a fleeting illusion of stability, yet they managed to squander every bit of it.

All hail Germany!!!

rustywalker82 said:Germany helped Ukraine move toward peace by mediating through the Minsk agreement.
But nothing is set in stone. If someone doesn't want peace, they aren't going to get it.

Oh, so now the Ukrainians are the ones at fault? I suppose they just decide to shell themselves and slash their own tires for fun, right, sweetheart?

Germany basically helped fund the Russian military, yet here we are with people acting like they can't possibly accept any loss of territory. You really hit the nail on the head there, rustywalker82.

Look, let's be real, the Minsk agreement was basically just a way to hand over territory.
Now they’ve got total freedom to move however they want...🙏

The whole world was begging them to actually follow through on it, but honestly, nobody cared. They weren't even paying attention to the actual logic being discussed over on Reddit. 🙂

Sam Alvarez4 said:Putin is hitting back. 😬

In retaliation for the sanctions, Russia is now restricting visas for citizens from certain "unfriendly" European Union nations, as well as for people from Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, and Iceland.

Russia imposes visa restrictions on citizens of 'unfriendly countries'

Also: following the events in Bucha, Macron is calling for even tougher sanctions against Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that more sanctions on Russia were needed after Ukraine accused Russian forces of The Killing of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

I truly feel for the Scandinavians and the Swiss. They will simply have to settle for vacations on the French Riviera, Miami, Mykonos, San Francisco, or some other trivial destination. The dream of visiting the Soča remains nothing more than a distant fantasy.

rustywalker82 said:Look, let's be real, the Minsk agreement was basically just a way to hand over territory.
Now they’ve got total freedom to move however they want...🙏

The whole world was begging them to actually follow through on it, but honestly, nobody cared. They weren't even paying attention to the actual logic being discussed over on Reddit. 🙂

So, what you're saying is they basically brought this on themselves, right? 🙂

rustywalker82 said:Look, let's be real, the Minsk agreement was basically just a way to hand over territory.
Now they’ve got total freedom to move however they want...🙏

The whole world was begging them to actually follow through on it, but honestly, nobody cared. They weren't even paying attention to the actual logic being discussed over on Reddit. 🙂

Perhaps you should actually educate yourself on what Minsk truly meant for the future of Ukraine before you start lecturing me about what the "entire world" thinks. It is patently obvious that the rest of the world couldn't care less about Ukraine, provided their own comfort and cheap energy supplies remain undisturbed—not that any of them would ever be willing to sacrifice a single thing of their own.

For Ukrainians, Minsk represented the abandonment of their very future and freedom, essentially forcing them to accept a subservient, vassal-like status toward Russia.

Justin James10 said:So, what you're saying is they basically brought this on themselves, right? 🙂

Exactly. Germany is totally on themselves here for forcing Ukraine into giving up territory under the Minsk agreement and essentially killing any shot they had at a real future.