Sanctions on Russia

It’s honestly hilarious when people try to paint this Russia-China alliance as some kind of balanced partnership.

China is a heavyweight player with actual credentials—they managed to climb from being one of the poorest nations on Earth to an industrial superpower in just a few decades.

And Russia? Just a massive, insecure joke.

analogbear5 said:It’s honestly hilarious when people try to paint this Russia-China alliance as some kind of balanced partnership.

China is a heavyweight player with actual credentials—they managed to climb from being one of the poorest nations on Earth to an industrial superpower in just a few decades.

And Russia? Just a massive, insecure joke.

Just your run-of-the-mill gas station.

Rachel Turner2 said:Just your run-of-the-mill gas station.

"Russia is never as strong as it seems, and never as weak as it appears" - Metternich

Rachel Turner2 said:Just your run-of-the-mill gas station.

I’ve been to plenty of gas stations—nothing ever felt aggressive. Honestly, the service is usually pretty professional enough.

Amanda Allen4 said:What on earth is actually happening with this supposedly "limitless" Russia-China friendship that Putin just went and announced?

Look, Russia isn't just Putin—it’s a whole entity—so it is entirely possible that the Chinese might also want him gone if it serves their own interests better.

And honestly? The most effective way to make that happen right now would be for him to lose the war in Ukraine.

But let's be real, even a "no limit" partnership has its boundaries. For China, overseas trade is infinitely more vital than any exchange they have with Russia. China absolutely needs unrestricted access to international waters for pretty much everything—from shipping out their exports to bringing in massive amounts of energy. Not to mention feeding their own people! Having hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens facing food shortages is definitely not worth maintaining a "no limits alliance" with a second-tier military power.
The Russians can't even come close to replacing the volume of goods moving through global ports. There just isn't the infrastructure across Alaska to make it work. And there is zero chance they can replace China's exports to the West. It's honestly kind of sad.

analogbear5 said:It’s honestly hilarious when people try to paint this Russia-China alliance as some kind of balanced partnership.

China is a heavyweight player with actual credentials—they managed to climb from being one of the poorest nations on Earth to an industrial superpower in just a few decades.

And Russia? Just a massive, insecure joke.

...which also happens to have enough nukes to wipe out the world several times over.☕

David Torres2 said:...which also happens to have enough nukes to wipe out the world several times over.☕

Venezuela with nukes ☕

analogbear5 said:It’s honestly hilarious when people try to paint this Russia-China alliance as some kind of balanced partnership.

China is a heavyweight player with actual credentials—they managed to climb from being one of the poorest nations on Earth to an industrial superpower in just a few decades.

And Russia? Just a massive, insecure joke.

The difference is China played it smart and stayed open; otherwise, they'd be stuck just like Russia.

David Torres2 said:...which also happens to have enough nukes to wipe out the world several times over.☕

Look, there isn't a single weapon or piece of tech on this planet capable of actually destroying the entire world. Even if you went out and targeted every single nuclear plant and uranium mine across the US, it wouldn't even scratch the surface of the planet, let alone kill off all the vermin living on it.

David Torres2 said:...which also happens to have enough nukes to wipe out the world several times over.☕

By the time the Russians get used to the taste of uranium and plutonium, it won't really matter how much they have.

If they can't export their crude or even keep up the maintenance on their current wells, Russia's oil production is basically on an irreversible downward spiral once it starts.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...iLoLTTlxA&s=19

Since we’re talking oil and gas, why don't the Americans just convince Ukraine to blow up those pipelines? While Europe wastes time debating, time is slipping away... Maybe the US could just compensate Ukraine for the lost revenue from those transit fees.

Carl Lee27 said:If they can't export their crude or even keep up the maintenance on their current wells, Russia's oil production is basically on an irreversible downward spiral once it starts.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...iLoLTTlxA&s=19

Gary Johnson6 said:Since we’re talking oil and gas, why don't the Americans just convince Ukraine to blow up those pipelines? While Europe wastes time debating, time is slipping away... Maybe the US could just compensate Ukraine for the lost revenue from those transit fees.

Why on earth would Ukraine want to blow anything up when they can simply shut off the valve?

It’s pretty obvious that it’s in Ukraine's best interest for that gas to keep flowing; if it wasn't, they would have turned off the tap a long time ago.

Honestly, blowing up gas pipelines feels pretty pointless when you think about it, because we already have those alternative routes running right under the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea—basically connecting us to the exact same countries that are going to be the very last ones to stop buying gas from Russia anyway. It’s a different story altogether when you talk about oil pipelines, though. For one thing, oil brings in way more cash for the Russians than gas does, and besides, almost all the oil lines are forced to run either through Ukraine or Belarus. You've even got that one northern branch of the Druzhba line cutting right through Belarus, which puts it incredibly close to the Ukrainian border.

Michael Davis9 said:Why on earth would Ukraine want to blow anything up when they can simply shut off the valve?

It’s pretty obvious that it’s in Ukraine's best interest for that gas to keep flowing; if it wasn't, they would have turned off the tap a long time ago.

Ukraine makes money on those transit fees.

Fine, let's just shut down the pipelines first. At least the ones feeding those refineries in Canada and Slovakia. They claim they can only process Russian crude, right? A total win-win. We shut them down, and suddenly they won't just be processing at the refinery in Corpus Christi, they'll have to open the one in Topeka too... I just don't get it. If the Canadians are complaining they can't stop buying Russian oil because their refineries are built specifically for it, then where exactly are they processing our stuff?
Either way, oil is easy to swap out.
That’s going to hurt the Russians, and likely the Asians and Canadians too.

I mean, come on, isn't it obvious to everyone that we aren't just talking about standard sanctions here? This is full-blown, permanent isolation... even the biggest collaborators in history, the Koch brothers, are pulling out of Russia entirely
https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/stat...evln2_OxQ&s=19

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

Hannah Williams8 said:

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

It’s honestly pretty sad how little people actually understand the world they live in.

Hannah Williams8 said:

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

What we're looking at here is a drop in production. That's not the same thing as a drop in exports, which is probably even steeper. A dip in production is a massive tell—it means they've filled up their storage tanks and are now starting to slowly shut down the wells. And they filled those tanks because they can't sell the oil even with a discount; at this point, a price hike doesn't mean a damn thing to them.

But look, the economy plays a massive role in wartime scenarios. This isn't just some brief skirmish in Ukraine; this is a much deeper clash between Russia and the West that's going to drag on for years, likely until the current top brass in Russia falls. Ukraine might just end up being one of many proxy wars, and honestly, this whole thing could easily stretch on for years. Just like how the USSR wasn't defeated purely on a battlefield, but was instead brought down by its own economic collapse, that's exactly how today's Russia is going to go down.
But fine, since you guys are all so annoyed by the economic analysts... does anyone actually have a suggestion for how to "militarily crush" a nuclear superpower while simultaneously making sure there's still a planet left to live on? Or do you seriously believe that losing an offensive in Donbas is going to flip the mindset of the Russian public, cause Putin to commit suicide, lead to the withdrawal of recognition for those republics, or see Crimea returned, and so on?