Sanctions on Russia

Hannah Williams8 said:

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

At those prices, who am I even supposed to sell this to?

Carl Lee27 said:What we're looking at here is a drop in production. That's not the same thing as a drop in exports, which is probably even steeper. A dip in production is a massive tell—it means they've filled up their storage tanks and are now starting to slowly shut down the wells. And they filled those tanks because they can't sell the oil even with a discount; at this point, a price hike doesn't mean a damn thing to them.

But look, the economy plays a massive role in wartime scenarios. This isn't just some brief skirmish in Ukraine; this is a much deeper clash between Russia and the West that's going to drag on for years, likely until the current top brass in Russia falls. Ukraine might just end up being one of many proxy wars, and honestly, this whole thing could easily stretch on for years. Just like how the USSR wasn't defeated purely on a battlefield, but was instead brought down by its own economic collapse, that's exactly how today's Russia is going to go down.
But fine, since you guys are all so annoyed by the economic analysts... does anyone actually have a suggestion for how to "militarily crush" a nuclear superpower while simultaneously making sure there's still a planet left to live on? Or do you seriously believe that losing an offensive in Donbas is going to flip the mindset of the Russian public, cause Putin to commit suicide, lead to the withdrawal of recognition for those republics, or see Crimea returned, and so on?

True enough, but that's a long game. If you want to crush an army in three days, you just load up some tractors and call it a day. Besides, economic sanctions often end up hitting the sender like a boomerang. That’s what Europe is facing. In my view, it would be great to take down Russia, but not by blowing ourselves up in the process.

Carl Lee27 said:What we're looking at here is a drop in production. That's not the same thing as a drop in exports, which is probably even steeper. A dip in production is a massive tell—it means they've filled up their storage tanks and are now starting to slowly shut down the wells. And they filled those tanks because they can't sell the oil even with a discount; at this point, a price hike doesn't mean a damn thing to them.

But look, the economy plays a massive role in wartime scenarios. This isn't just some brief skirmish in Ukraine; this is a much deeper clash between Russia and the West that's going to drag on for years, likely until the current top brass in Russia falls. Ukraine might just end up being one of many proxy wars, and honestly, this whole thing could easily stretch on for years. Just like how the USSR wasn't defeated purely on a battlefield, but was instead brought down by its own economic collapse, that's exactly how today's Russia is going to go down.
But fine, since you guys are all so annoyed by the economic analysts... does anyone actually have a suggestion for how to "militarily crush" a nuclear superpower while simultaneously making sure there's still a planet left to live on? Or do you seriously believe that losing an offensive in Donbas is going to flip the mindset of the Russian public, cause Putin to commit suicide, lead to the withdrawal of recognition for those republics, or see Crimea returned, and so on?

It’s tough to analyze or predict what's happening when we're looking at it from our Western perspective. We're dealing with a Russian people who have never actually known true freedom, transparency, or an independent press. So, how can we honestly expect them to just rise up and topple their government?
Are we really trying to project Western values onto a population that has only ever known autocratic rule? Isn't that a bit optimistic?

Arthur Watson4 said:At those prices, who am I even supposed to sell this to?

I haven't a clue, but it looks like oil and gas are still flowing into the European Union just like before. China is buying up plenty too.
The war has to be settled militarily—surely you realize that? It has to end with the aggressor losing.

Hannah Williams8 said:I haven't a clue, but it looks like oil and gas are still flowing into the European Union just like before. China is buying up plenty too.
The war has to be settled militarily—surely you realize that? It has to end with the aggressor losing.

You've got the oil situation wrong.

Hannah Williams8 said:I haven't a clue, but it looks like oil and gas are still flowing into the European Union just like before. China is buying up plenty too.
The war has to be settled militarily—surely you realize that? It has to end with the aggressor losing.

For the bold move, alright, don't mess around. Of course it's necessary—economic sanctions are part of the package.

You’re mistaken about the oil situation; they’re already facing major hurdles. They can't move their stock even with deep discounts, and to make matters worse, they're struggling with logistics whenever they actually manage to find a buyer.

Natural gas is a sought-after commodity regardless, but it’s being delivered according to pre-established prices and contracts.

Gas revenue also trails behind oil sales here.

Here’s the breakdown for Russian exports—using 2019 data.



China is running their own comparisons:

analogbear5 said:Gas revenue also trails behind oil sales here.

Here’s the breakdown for Russian exports—using 2019 data.



China is running their own comparisons:

Let's all have a little laugh together...

Next time the payment for Russian oil and gas comes due, let's just send them an email.

Dear Sirs,

We've redirected the funds for the delivered oil and gas to Ukraine to help rebuild a destroyed city.

🤣🎉🤦

Russia is going to pivot its oil and gas exports toward Asia. In the long run, that’s probably going to be way less profitable for them, but let’s face it—it’s not like the entire world is just going to slap sanctions on all Russian energy overnight.

Looking at the big picture, Western sanctions will eventually drag down Russian productivity because, over time, they're going to run out of the high-tech goods needed for efficient mining, manufacturing, and stuff like that, but...

The thing is, Russia is massive, and their capacity to pull off an autarkic economic policy is huge. It’s honestly unrealistic to expect Americans to think that Russians will be starving or running out of basic raw materials after just a month or two. They've been insulating themselves since 2014 and don't rely on the outside world nearly as much as someone like China does.

Even Putin seems to have his head on straight in one specific way—he isn't micromanaging the economy too much. He lets the technocrats do their jobs without forcing them to resign, so instead of making wild, erratic moves, they’re mostly just managing the economic decline.

And when you consider the massive stockpiles of weaponry left over from the USSR, combined with some of their own domestic production, expecting them to just run out of ammo is also pretty unrealistic. The only things that will be hard to replace are helicopters and specialized tech, but they have plenty of those lying around.

Sanctions are good, and we should definitely support them, but keep in mind that the USSR was essentially under some form of sanctions for seventy years.
Russia is smaller than the old union, sure, but they don't have a planned economy anymore or a bunch of idiots running every single aspect of the economy.
It’ll get harder for them to pick up quality car tires or a decent laptop, but they aren't going to run out of food or basic, low-tech weaponry anytime soon.

At the end of the day, the only way for Ukraine to win is militarily; sanctions can only do so much to help that effort.

The heavy hitters are finally starting to move in: OnlyFans has officially pulled the plug on accounts based in Russia. Honestly, if you think about it, that’s probably enough to hit them for like 5-10% of their total revenue or something crazy like that.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...8BXJV5pDQ&s=19

Oracle is reportedly gearing up to pull out
https://news.sap.com/2022/04/sap-plans-russia-exit/

And it’s not just them—Kimberly-Clark, which owns brands like 7-Eleven and Charmin, is also making their exit
View on twitter

Then you've got Anheuser-Busch on the move too
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-1-billion-hit

Even SKF, those massive bearing manufacturers, are stepping away
https://www.skf.com/group/news-and-e...russia-4243410

There's even talk about cutting off GPS signals for everyone over there
https://avia-pro.net/news/ssha-rassm...e-gps-v-rossii

Plus, companies from India are starting to ditch or freeze ties with Russia as well—think U.S. Steel and Accenture
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/21/b...ntl/index.html

Now ExxonMobil is working on an exit strategy (which, let's be honest, basically means writing off every single asset and claim they have in Russia)
https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status...64711636353026

It looks like Russia’s membership in the WTO is probably on shaky ground at this point, too
https://www.investing.com/news/commo...-putin-2806972

South Korea 2 is basically in the making now. Congrats to the Russians.

Michael Davis9 said:Russia is going to pivot its oil and gas exports toward Asia. In the long run, that’s probably going to be way less profitable for them, but let’s face it—it’s not like the entire world is just going to slap sanctions on all Russian energy overnight.

Looking at the big picture, Western sanctions will eventually drag down Russian productivity because, over time, they're going to run out of the high-tech goods needed for efficient mining, manufacturing, and stuff like that, but...

The thing is, Russia is massive, and their capacity to pull off an autarkic economic policy is huge. It’s honestly unrealistic to expect Americans to think that Russians will be starving or running out of basic raw materials after just a month or two. They've been insulating themselves since 2014 and don't rely on the outside world nearly as much as someone like China does.

Even Putin seems to have his head on straight in one specific way—he isn't micromanaging the economy too much. He lets the technocrats do their jobs without forcing them to resign, so instead of making wild, erratic moves, they’re mostly just managing the economic decline.

And when you consider the massive stockpiles of weaponry left over from the USSR, combined with some of their own domestic production, expecting them to just run out of ammo is also pretty unrealistic. The only things that will be hard to replace are helicopters and specialized tech, but they have plenty of those lying around.

Sanctions are good, and we should definitely support them, but keep in mind that the USSR was essentially under some form of sanctions for seventy years.
Russia is smaller than the old union, sure, but they don't have a planned economy anymore or a bunch of idiots running every single aspect of the economy.
It’ll get harder for them to pick up quality car tires or a decent laptop, but they aren't going to run out of food or basic, low-tech weaponry anytime soon.

At the end of the day, the only way for Ukraine to win is militarily; sanctions can only do so much to help that effort.

That sounds great on paper, sure. Maybe a portion of the oil, yeah—if they increase what they're already sending to Asia by about 10-20%, they might break even.
But how do you actually shift 5 million barrels of oil a day over to Asia? Most of the tankers currently cruising the Mediterranean aren't even remotely capable of sailing past the Arabian Sea, and even then, it's a huge question mark. Plus, those tankers are Western-owned. If Russia wants to ship to Asia, they’ll have to use their own fleet or rely on Suezmax vessels from those Asian countries.

Basically, they’d need something like 6 tankers a day times 80...
meaning they’d have to source 480 to 500 Suezmax tankers.
And don't even get me started on the economics. You're looking at a 35-day haul to China loaded with oil, and then another 35 days sailing back empty. That’s a fantastic business model right there.

Michael Davis9 said:Russia is going to pivot its oil and gas exports toward Asia. In the long run, that’s probably going to be way less profitable for them, but let’s face it—it’s not like the entire world is just going to slap sanctions on all Russian energy overnight.

Looking at the big picture, Western sanctions will eventually drag down Russian productivity because, over time, they're going to run out of the high-tech goods needed for efficient mining, manufacturing, and stuff like that, but...

The thing is, Russia is massive, and their capacity to pull off an autarkic economic policy is huge. It’s honestly unrealistic to expect Americans to think that Russians will be starving or running out of basic raw materials after just a month or two. They've been insulating themselves since 2014 and don't rely on the outside world nearly as much as someone like China does.

Even Putin seems to have his head on straight in one specific way—he isn't micromanaging the economy too much. He lets the technocrats do their jobs without forcing them to resign, so instead of making wild, erratic moves, they’re mostly just managing the economic decline.

And when you consider the massive stockpiles of weaponry left over from the USSR, combined with some of their own domestic production, expecting them to just run out of ammo is also pretty unrealistic. The only things that will be hard to replace are helicopters and specialized tech, but they have plenty of those lying around.

Sanctions are good, and we should definitely support them, but keep in mind that the USSR was essentially under some form of sanctions for seventy years.
Russia is smaller than the old union, sure, but they don't have a planned economy anymore or a bunch of idiots running every single aspect of the economy.
It’ll get harder for them to pick up quality car tires or a decent laptop, but they aren't going to run out of food or basic, low-tech weaponry anytime soon.

At the end of the day, the only way for Ukraine to win is militarily; sanctions can only do so much to help that effort.

Yeah, sure. Not until they build out massive pipelines from their current reserves that feed China instead of Europe.

The only way Ukraine wins is through military means; sanctions can only help facilitate that.

Duh. That’s been obvious from second one.

Liveuamap Middle East:
Turkey just shut down its airspace to any Russian civilian or military flights moving troops into Syria, apparently after giving Moscow a heads-up, according to the Turkish Foreign Minister.

The Wall Street Journal: Russia is withholding economic data to mask how much Western sanctions are actually hitting them

I guess this isn't just some North Korea situation anymore, it's gonna be a total USA-level North Korea nightmare

wearytrucker22 said:That sounds great on paper, sure. Maybe a portion of the oil, yeah—if they increase what they're already sending to Asia by about 10-20%, they might break even.
But how do you actually shift 5 million barrels of oil a day over to Asia? Most of the tankers currently cruising the Mediterranean aren't even remotely capable of sailing past the Arabian Sea, and even then, it's a huge question mark. Plus, those tankers are Western-owned. If Russia wants to ship to Asia, they’ll have to use their own fleet or rely on Suezmax vessels from those Asian countries.

Basically, they’d need something like 6 tankers a day times 80...
meaning they’d have to source 480 to 500 Suezmax tankers.
And don't even get me started on the economics. You're looking at a 35-day haul to China loaded with oil, and then another 35 days sailing back empty. That’s a fantastic business model right there.

Russia likely thinks Europe is bluffing, and honestly, they aren't wrong. Europe can't function without Russian gas and oil, and Russia can't survive without the European market. At least not in the short to medium term. Long-term, Europe can find new suppliers and Russia can find new buyers, but building out all that new infrastructure and making those investments takes massive amounts of time and money.

It looks like two cars barreling toward each other at full speed, both waiting to see who blinks first and swerves. Sanctions hit Russia harder, but their population is tougher. Sanctions hit Europe less, but their people are incredibly spoiled.

Joshua Myers432 said:True enough, but that's a long game. If you want to crush an army in three days, you just load up some tractors and call it a day. Besides, economic sanctions often end up hitting the sender like a boomerang. That’s what Europe is facing. In my view, it would be great to take down Russia, but not by blowing ourselves up in the process.

Sanctions are basically a boomerang that Europe is choosing to take hits from for a while. But looking at the big picture? Russia is getting technologically gutted. Planes won't fly, medicine will run dry, telecom networks will fall apart... you name it. The fallout is going to be massive, and honestly, hard to even wrap your head around.

Can you drop a source on why there won't be any meds available? Just curious about the reasoning.

Joshua Myers432 said:Russia likely thinks Europe is bluffing, and honestly, they aren't wrong. Europe can't function without Russian gas and oil, and Russia can't survive without the European market. At least not in the short to medium term. Long-term, Europe can find new suppliers and Russia can find new buyers, but building out all that new infrastructure and making those investments takes massive amounts of time and money.

It looks like two cars barreling toward each other at full speed, both waiting to see who blinks first and swerves. Sanctions hit Russia harder, but their population is tougher. Sanctions hit Europe less, but their people are incredibly spoiled.

So here's the real question: just how soft is the American public? You hear all this talk on the news and online about how once shortages actually start hitting, people will be out in the streets protesting everything under the sun, but I'm not so sure. Look at COVID—we were locked down for two years and it wasn't like there were massive riots or governments collapsing or wars in the streets... plus, we know exactly who to blame for that mess. In my opinion, more people have probably shown up to support Ukraine than actually went out to protest during those two years of lockdowns.