Sanctions on Russia

analogbear5 said:Can you drop a source on why there won't be any meds available? Just curious about the reasoning.

We’re already seeing shortages. Getting supplies in via plane is nearly impossible right now, and shipping by sea is just as much of a headache. Nobody wants to risk sailing toward Russia or anything near their territory.
Russian trucks aren't allowed into the EU, and the EU isn't sending much back to Russia, even though things like food and medicine technically can move. But the border crossings are completely backed up. It's hard to find drivers willing to deal with that kind of hassle when there are much easier routes out there.
https://www.businessinsurance.com/ar...s-jams-borders

Joshua Myers432 said:Russia likely thinks Europe is bluffing, and honestly, they aren't wrong. Europe can't function without Russian gas and oil, and Russia can't survive without the European market. At least not in the short to medium term. Long-term, Europe can find new suppliers and Russia can find new buyers, but building out all that new infrastructure and making those investments takes massive amounts of time and money.

It looks like two cars barreling toward each other at full speed, both waiting to see who blinks first and swerves. Sanctions hit Russia harder, but their population is tougher. Sanctions hit Europe less, but their people are incredibly spoiled.

Europe could probably hold out for a few months before Putin actually runs out of cash.

It’s a tricky balance—you have to prep for winter, but if we're going for total sanctions, the sooner the better.

If the Russians manage to oust Putin, things might get back to normal pretty fast.
I mean, we aren't expecting some miracle or a complete 180 in Moscow's policy—plus, you've still got the whole aftermath between Ukraine and Russia to deal with. Not to mention the reconstruction.

There are plenty of scenarios. etc.

Thomas Nelson25 said:Europe could probably hold out for a few months before Putin actually runs out of cash.

It’s a tricky balance—you have to prep for winter, but if we're going for total sanctions, the sooner the better.

If the Russians manage to oust Putin, things might get back to normal pretty fast.
I mean, we aren't expecting some miracle or a complete 180 in Moscow's policy—plus, you've still got the whole aftermath between Ukraine and Russia to deal with. Not to mention the reconstruction.

There are plenty of scenarios. etc.

It makes little sense for the Russian Federation to replace Putin only to maintain the exact same trajectory. So, if he is actually removed—I'm betting on a genuine policy pivot. It wouldn't be their first time pulling a hard U-turn like that.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Sanctions are basically a boomerang that Europe is choosing to take hits from for a while. But looking at the big picture? Russia is getting technologically gutted. Planes won't fly, medicine will run dry, telecom networks will fall apart... you name it. The fallout is going to be massive, and honestly, hard to even wrap your head around.

We're talking a 10-15 year window here. It took Russia an entire decade—from 1999 to 2009—just to jump from $1,000 per capita to $15,000. Who knows where they'd be today if they hadn't occupied Crimea? Most people forget one crucial thing: Russia is energy independent.

A bit of a heavy question here

Ever since the pandemic hit, we've been dealing with this massive chip shortage. I was just sitting here wondering... how is this actually going to play out for Russia versus the rest of the world? Like, if those sanctions on Russia really tighten up, does that mean there's suddenly more supply heading toward the EU?

electricsurfer47 said:A bit of a heavy question here

Ever since the pandemic hit, we've been dealing with this massive chip shortage. I was just sitting here wondering... how is this actually going to play out for Russia versus the rest of the world? Like, if those sanctions on Russia really tighten up, does that mean there's suddenly more supply heading toward the EU?

Barely

https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/biden...ussia-ukraine/

According to the CIA, Russia accounts for only 0.1% of global chip purchases. Research firm IDC estimates the Russian chip market is worth $50 billion in trade out of a $4.5 trillion global industry.

Arthur Miller7 said:So here's the real question: just how soft is the American public? You hear all this talk on the news and online about how once shortages actually start hitting, people will be out in the streets protesting everything under the sun, but I'm not so sure. Look at COVID—we were locked down for two years and it wasn't like there were massive riots or governments collapsing or wars in the streets... plus, we know exactly who to blame for that mess. In my opinion, more people have probably shown up to support Ukraine than actually went out to protest during those two years of lockdowns.

It’s hard to compare the two, especially since we’ve essentially layered a new economic disaster—sanctions against Russia—right on top of the economic wreckage left by COVID. For those who lean toward conspiracy theories, the timing and the coincidence are certainly interesting.😉

Thomas Nelson25 said:Europe could probably hold out for a few months before Putin actually runs out of cash.

It’s a tricky balance—you have to prep for winter, but if we're going for total sanctions, the sooner the better.

If the Russians manage to oust Putin, things might get back to normal pretty fast.
I mean, we aren't expecting some miracle or a complete 180 in Moscow's policy—plus, you've still got the whole aftermath between Ukraine and Russia to deal with. Not to mention the reconstruction.

There are plenty of scenarios. etc.

The real question is how spoiled the Russians have become over the last 20 or 30 years. If the propaganda machine in Europe works this hard, imagine what it’s like in Russia. Brainwashing is incredibly effective for 95% of the population; just look at North Korea.

The big question remains: which side will the sanctions cripple first, Russia or the US/Europe?
Sure, Putin might be removed, but who steps into his shoes? And why would you assume they'd be any better than Vladimir? Vladimir isn't even close to being the worst ruler Russia or the USSR has seen in the last century, so I wouldn't get too optimistic.

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s hard to compare the two, especially since we’ve essentially layered a new economic disaster—sanctions against Russia—right on top of the economic wreckage left by COVID. For those who lean toward conspiracy theories, the timing and the coincidence are certainly interesting.😉

The real question is how spoiled the Russians have become over the last 20 or 30 years. If the propaganda machine in Europe works this hard, imagine what it’s like in Russia. Brainwashing is incredibly effective for 95% of the population; just look at North Korea.

The big question remains: which side will the sanctions cripple first, Russia or the US/Europe?
Sure, Putin might be removed, but who steps into his shoes? And why would you assume they'd be any better than Vladimir? Vladimir isn't even close to being the worst ruler Russia or the USSR has seen in the last century, so I wouldn't get too optimistic.

This isn't even a debate if you aren't some die-hard fan or trying to play "neutral."

fadedjackal8 said:This isn't even a debate if you aren't some die-hard fan or trying to play "neutral."

Which guy are you talking about? I see two people here, so I'm not quite sure what you mean.
And from what I can tell, the Germans don't agree with you—they probably side with that Easterner instead.

boldbison40 said:Barely

https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/biden...ussia-ukraine/

According to the CIA, Russia accounts for only 0.1% of global chip purchases. Research firm IDC estimates the Russian chip market is worth $50 billion in trade out of a $4.5 trillion global industry.

Economic superpower 🤦

analogbear5 said:Gas revenue also trails behind oil sales here.

Here’s the breakdown for Russian exports—using 2019 data.



China is running their own comparisons:

Offtopic

Look, I know Wiki has stuff for every country, but you have to dig through individual country pages to find it.

Is there somewhere that just hosts all these charts for every country in one spot?

Just saying—if anyone actually wanted to build a treemap for that country for a specific year, you could just whip it up from some raw data in Excel.

Here’s the category over on Wikimedia Commons where they have it filed away.

Richard Wilson4 said:Offtopic

Look, I know Wiki has stuff for every country, but you have to dig through individual country pages to find it.

Is there somewhere that just hosts all these charts for every country in one spot?

https://oec.world/en/home-a

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa

you could honestly spend days playing around with this site

Found an interesting page tracking gas inventory levels across Europe here: Gas Reserves

Peak demand hit 8.7 TWh/day.
Right now, storage sits at 350 TWh—which means we’ve technically got enough to cover about 2 or 3 months if we were heading straight into the fall-winter stretch.
Storage is currently at 32%, with daily fluctuations between +0.35% and 0.50% (depending on which country you look at).
I have a feeling Germany is dragging its feet on sanctions just to make sure their reserves are topped off first—they even passed that minimum capacity law. Honestly, that little gremlin emptied out the Russian firms' storage right before the invasion, but now the Germans have stepped in to take control of those facilities. At this rate, it'll take them maybe 3 or 4 months to hit that 85-90% sweet spot (once they factor in LNG).
My money is on them reaching some kind of agreement regarding sanctions on Russian gas within the next 4 months, tops.

casualtiger2 said:Found an interesting page tracking gas inventory levels across Europe here: Gas Reserves

Peak demand hit 8.7 TWh/day.
Right now, storage sits at 350 TWh—which means we’ve technically got enough to cover about 2 or 3 months if we were heading straight into the fall-winter stretch.
Storage is currently at 32%, with daily fluctuations between +0.35% and 0.50% (depending on which country you look at).
I have a feeling Germany is dragging its feet on sanctions just to make sure their reserves are topped off first—they even passed that minimum capacity law. Honestly, that little gremlin emptied out the Russian firms' storage right before the invasion, but now the Germans have stepped in to take control of those facilities. At this rate, it'll take them maybe 3 or 4 months to hit that 85-90% sweet spot (once they factor in LNG).
My money is on them reaching some kind of agreement regarding sanctions on Russian gas within the next 4 months, tops.

The Germans screwed themselves big time by becoming needlessly dependent on Russian gas. On the flip side, the Russians completely botched this invasion of Ukraine. Now, both sides are desperately scrambling to find a way out of the massive mess they've created.
Someone is going to have to swallow their pride and admit defeat.

Germany’s first LNG terminal is hitting the water early next year—it's a floating setup capable of pumping out 5 billion cubic meters annually!
https://www.reuters.com/article/germ...-idUSS8N2VX09B

With Ukraine heading toward the EU and NATO, Russia becomes more or less irrelevant to them.

As for the Russians—well, they really blew it. They either miscalculated their strength or underestimated the consequences, and now they’re facing a very real possibility of being forced back into the economic Stone Age.

So, there's this WION reportage over on Gravitas plus talking about how Western countries—mostly folks in Europe—are allegedly making these secret deals to buy energy from Russia. Honestly, I’m not sure if everything they’re claiming in the segment is 100% accurate or not. Remember, WION is an Indian news agency, so take it with a grain of salt. But anyway, the gist is that they're saying Russian oil gets rebranded as something else entirely before it even hits the docks in places like the Netherlands or Romania...

Gravitas plus : is The West Trying to Hide Russian oil imports

And honestly, it’s not even a secret at this point, though people love to act shocked when it comes up. It wouldn't be the first time either! Look, you could have a massive company like Shell buy up crude from Russia and then just blend it with oil from, say, Norway. Suddenly, that Russian oil makes up less than 50% of the total cargo, and magically, everything looks fine on paper.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...fb4_story.html

It’s getting to the point where we might actually see Asia trading oil with Russia using rubles, which would basically be the final nail in the coffin for the petrodollar.
I mean, look at the Rosneft auction for oil priced in rubles—literally zero buyers showed up.