Sanctions on Russia

Now we’re getting to the real question:
Does America actually want a weak Russia, or is this all just Putin's spin?

wanderingmaker3 said:Now we’re getting to the real question:
Does America actually want a weak Russia, or is this all just Putin's spin?

Of course they do. And make no mistake, they are more than willing to cut massive checks to ensure that outcome becomes a reality.

Everyone seems to be rooting for a weakened Russia. In a perfect world, they’d just become some sort of massive demilitarized zone that focuses entirely on exporting raw materials and their agricultural goods. It would be a win-win for everyone involved, which is honestly the funniest part—even the Russians themselves would probably find that setup more appealing.

Paul Anderson7 said:Everyone seems to be rooting for a weakened Russia. In a perfect world, they’d just become some sort of massive demilitarized zone that focuses entirely on exporting raw materials and their agricultural goods. It would be a win-win for everyone involved, which is honestly the funniest part—even the Russians themselves would probably find that setup more appealing.

It’s a bit like those countries in Africa—everyone assumes they’re doing great just because they don't have a military worth mentioning and mostly just export their natural resources.

William Gonzalez3 said:It’s a bit like those countries in Africa—everyone assumes they’re doing great just because they don't have a military worth mentioning and mostly just export their natural resources.

And I guess just like those African nations try to boost their quality of life through the occasional genocidal war, it looks like the Russians decided to follow that exact same plan.

William Gonzalez3 said:It’s a bit like those countries in Africa—everyone assumes they’re doing great just because they don't have a military worth mentioning and mostly just export their natural resources.

We're jumping all over the place here, but Russia isn't even in the same league as Africa.
I sometimes find myself imagining what would happen if Western companies actually took over Russia—you know, stripped of all the oligarchs and the systemic corruption. Of course, I realize that’s never going to happen, but I honestly think the average person there would be better off than they are now.
You'd have a job, you could actually make a decent living, and you'd have the freedom to say whatever you wanted.

There’s this major phenomenon called the resource curse. It basically feeds into traditional culture—where anyone in the lower classes is viewed as a dangerous revolutionary threat, so they end up being kept stuck in or hovering right around poverty just to keep things stable.

A weakened, demilitarized Russia. In a nuclear world where only one nation holds total dominance, is that actually a smart move? Regardless of the circumstances.

Putin loves to brag about ushering in a multipolar era—now that China is in the mix.

The whole idea of a demilitarized Russia is pure fiction at this point, honestly more like a sci-fi novel than reality. Even if it happened, a country like that would just be waiting for the slightest hint of weakness from the West to start rearming again—it wouldn't take long. You'd end up with a situation pretty much like interwar Germany.

So, I was just reading that Germany is making some massive moves to cut their reliance on Russian gas down to just 10% by the middle of 2024. They're looking at rolling out four floating terminals over the next couple of years, and then they want to have two more permanent ones set up on land by 2026. It’s a huge pivot, honestly!
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...ating-lng-rush

analogbear5 said:Putin loves to brag about ushering in a multipolar era—now that China is in the mix.

The whole idea of a demilitarized Russia is pure fiction at this point, honestly more like a sci-fi novel than reality. Even if it happened, a country like that would just be waiting for the slightest hint of weakness from the West to start rearming again—it wouldn't take long. You'd end up with a situation pretty much like interwar Germany.

The proxy war in Ukraine between the West and Russia is eventually going to evolve into a full-blown proxy war for Russia between the West and China.
Ukraine is really just phase one. The actual "war"—hopefully just a figure of speech—over Russia's legacy will probably kick off once Russia suffers a military defeat in Ukraine.

von der Leyen is pushing for a total ban on Russian oil imports **

** Not right this second, but we're looking at about a six-month window...
*** Slovakia is using their opt-out clause, though...
**** And Canada is basically saying they don't want any part of this headache...

I’m honestly just sitting here wondering how the European Union is going to handle the fallout when those early November cold snaps start hitting and everyone starts cranking up the heat...

Is that what they call a total embargo—when Shell suddenly stops taking 49% of their Ural supply just to slap a "Made in the US" sticker on it instead? 🤣

Right now, this feels more like a bluff than anything else—just a warning shot. There’s this hope that things might actually shift for the better and that sanctions could start easing up within six months. If Russia doesn't pull the trigger on a full-scale mobilization and commit to a long-term war, we could realistically see Ukraine reclaiming a significant chunk of territory through both military gains and negotiations over that timeframe.

Honestly, it wouldn't be the worst thing if, once that happens, the European Union continues down the path of aggressively cutting back on all Russian oil and gas imports.

Russia turns to pirate movies after cultural export boycott
https://torrentfreak.com/russian-cin...rrents-220502/

Totally shocked by this news. 🙄
Sure, people are calling for a revolution because they can't stream the latest Netflix hits—but give it two or three months and everyone will be watching 4K rips anyway.

Does anyone happen to have a handle on the logic or the actual reasoning behind this massive surge in the ruble's official value?
From what I can gather—and I might be missing something here—the market is pretty tight, there isn't much foreign currency being traded, and their imports have absolutely plummeted... it seems like the official exchange rate is mostly just used to recalculate export revenues, which, since most of those exports are energy and raw materials, eventually just flow straight back into the federal treasury.

Wouldn't it actually make more sense for both the private companies and the government budget if the ruble were weaker, just so they could convert more rubles for every dollar or euro they bring in?

I mean, what other possible benefit could they be getting from pushing the ruble up to 66 against the dollar, whatever it is currently sitting at?

I'll be the first to admit I'm not exactly an expert when it comes to these complex economic machinations, so I'm having a bit of a hard time wrapping my head around the whole situation right now...

It would be entirely logical for the European Union to consider imposing sanctions on the Russian Orthodox Church, given that it serves as one of Putin's primary instruments for engineering the concept of the "Russian world."

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15217...bNAjsL6Di4ud-g

🤣
Fair enough. Since Notre Dame burned down, why not just seize a new one from the Russian Orthodox Church to outfit the French Legion?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexan...thedral,_Paris

The sanctions coming out of the European Union aren't just about slapping a ban on buying oil; they go way deeper than that, cutting through the entire value chain from top to bottom. We're talking everything from insurance coverage all the way down to technical and engineering support.
https://twitter.com/cbjom/status/152...jO4WiGXTw&s=19

And yeah, Shell has officially stopped buying oil from Russia. Meanwhile, you've got Canada and Slovakia together pulling in about 200,000 barrels a day—though, of course, the big question remains whether the Canadians are going to start "blending" their supply to skirt the rules.
There are also these heavy rumors swirling around secondary sanctions against Iran, mostly because people assume Iran is going to start selling Russian oil as if it were their own, essentially just continuing the same pattern where Russians have been helping out Iranians in the past.

Nathan Evans78 said:Is that what they call a total embargo—when Shell suddenly stops taking 49% of their Ural supply just to slap a "Made in the US" sticker on it instead? 🤣

Pretty much. It’s just like when the Americans bragged about switching from Russian supplies to German gas. We all know German gas is a myth.