Paul Anderson7 said:If there's one lesson we've learned, it's that you can't trust Russians. You certainly can't trust Vladimir Putin. There are no such things as security guarantees that Russia will actually honor; they'll promise you the moon while they're busy prepping for the next round of conflict and territorial expansion behind the scenes. The only real security guarantee would be a broke Russia without a modern military. Personally, I wouldn't even sit at a table with them unless they agreed to give up their nuclear arsenal. If they ever get the bright idea to invade a neighbor again, they should have to deal with the fact that they won't have nukes to hide behind.
Russia obviously isn't going to agree to that, so any discussions that leave them with a military capable of attacking someone else are basically pointless. We need to realize who we're dealing with here; it's pretty obvious they've been setting the stage for this for decades, bribing EU politicians to create openings so they can carry out their terror in Ukraine without consequence. The real question is how many more targets they had on their list and how fast they intended to hit them.
We've already seen them calling for NATO members to revert to the status quo of the nineties, so it doesn't take much to figure out how much they want to grab.
Beyond that, you only have to listen to their diplomats and the hacks on their state TV to see how they think. It's hard to reach an agreement with people like that, especially since they clearly have no intention of keeping their word.
As for the grain shortages, it'll be short-lived. Right now, nations around the globe are realizing that Russia isn't a reliable partner and they need to find new suppliers. Sure, certain players in Asia are going to profit from this because they can pick up Russian goods at a discount, which they've always been able to do. But the West and parts of the Arab world will have to hunt for other sources. It’s a headache in the short term, but it's totally doable within two or three years. Despite all the talk about the world starving because "all" the grain comes from Russia and Ukraine, that's just not how it works in reality. Until now, Russian grain was just the cheapest option. If that disappears, someone else will plant the crops, and eventually, the grain and everything made from it will just be more expensive.
But hey, I'd rather pay more for $5.00 bread and a gallon of gas for $6.75 than be sitting in a trench listening to artillery shells landing on my wife and kids.
Things will settle down eventually, and the countries most dependent on Russia will end up footing the biggest bill. Along with the poor, they’re going to get screwed, as usual—but that was already a given long before the pandemic, so nothing really changes for them.
No, Russia didn't promise NATO wouldn't expand east, Russia didn't station missiles in Poland or Romania, Russia didn't lie about Iraqi WMDs, and Russia didn't back the main factions in Syria.
And they certainly weren't the ones organizing coups in the American neighborhood or installing neo-Nazis to burn people out.
That was the West, and the West is the party you can't trust.
The West loved the Chechens when they were busy killing Russians and leveling buildings in Moscow; back then, streets were named after Dudayev and Zakayev was given asylum. Now, everyone is panicking at the mere mention of Chechens.
It's precisely because you aren't willing to face reality that this is happening in Ukraine.
The world understands that Russia remains a desirable partner because they control the grain, the fertilizer, and the energy—exactly what everyone needs.
Let's be real: you can live without fancy makeup, a new car, or designer clothes. Living without flour and electricity is a much harder sell.
