Sanctions on Russia

Aeroflot Boeing 777 seized in Sri Lanka
https://simpleflying.com/aeroflot-a3...-in-sri-lanka/

Joshua Wilson17 said:If I'm hearing you right, you're saying we shouldn't bother with sanctions against Russia just because fuel is cheaper? It doesn't matter if an invasion is actually happening. After all, Putin claims Ukrainians aren't even a real nation and have no right to their own country.
What if someone said something similar about Americans and the United States? Would you change your mind then? Or would the price at the pump still be more important...

Could you provide a link to a reliable source actually confirming that Putin said that?

rowdymaker17 said:India and Japan have officially decided to sit out the NATO sanctions regarding the halt of Russian oil and gas purchases. India made it quite clear that they aren't interested in anything other than the direct interests of their own citizens, arguing that an embargo on Russian raw materials serves absolutely no purpose for the American-style consumer stability they prioritize; naturally, the USA and the EU have responded by labeling them hypocritical and arrogant. Meanwhile, Japan stated they have spent far too many years working on bilateral agreements with Russia to simply throw it all away now, and they have zero intention of imposing sanctions on Russian oil and gas. In fact, both nations have actually ramped up their imports of Russian energy because they can secure it at such significantly lower prices right now. It appears the EU is the only group of fools blindly following the lead of the USA. And looking at the current trajectory, it seems we are watching European economies slowly wither away one by one as Russia shuts off the valves and redirects its oil and gas toward the East, Latin America, and Africa. We can all look forward to a very pleasant winter. 👍

If the EU economy isn't capable of replacing the energy it imports with its own domestic supply, then maybe it really should just shut down...

rowdymaker17 said:Could you provide a link to a reliable source actually confirming that Putin said that?

Go ahead and look it up—it’s incredibly easy if you actually bother to try... Just find that Hitlerian speech delivered right before the criminal invasion of Ukraine. You’ll find all your answers and the absolute confirmation you need right there.

lp

Joshua Wilson17 said:If I'm hearing you right, you're saying we shouldn't bother with sanctions against Russia just because fuel is cheaper? It doesn't matter if an invasion is actually happening. After all, Putin claims Ukrainians aren't even a real nation and have no right to their own country.
What if someone said something similar about Americans and the United States? Would you change your mind then? Or would the price at the pump still be more important...

It isn't about that, rather I find this level of hypocrisy and these shifting double standards absolutely nauseating.

Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, and as a direct result, massive amounts of weaponry are being funneled into the country.

Meanwhile, when NATO went into Libya under the guise of "bringing democracy," there weren't any sanctions imposed for that aggression, yet the arms embargo on Libya was actually extended.

The UN Security Council has extended the arms embargo on Libya for another year.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...cyId7LlrmnB6Qg

Noah Diaz said:Not quite, my friend. It doesn't just happen instantly or overnight. We all know perfectly well that sanctions take some actual time before they start having an impact.😁

It might sound like some wild conspiracy theory, but honestly? I wouldn't be shocked if those clowns in the EU were actually working for Russia.
They're basically just impoverishing their own people and driving their economy straight into a recession.

rowdymaker17 said:India and Japan have officially decided to sit out the NATO sanctions regarding the halt of Russian oil and gas purchases. India made it quite clear that they aren't interested in anything other than the direct interests of their own citizens, arguing that an embargo on Russian raw materials serves absolutely no purpose for the American-style consumer stability they prioritize; naturally, the USA and the EU have responded by labeling them hypocritical and arrogant. Meanwhile, Japan stated they have spent far too many years working on bilateral agreements with Russia to simply throw it all away now, and they have zero intention of imposing sanctions on Russian oil and gas. In fact, both nations have actually ramped up their imports of Russian energy because they can secure it at such significantly lower prices right now. It appears the EU is the only group of fools blindly following the lead of the USA. And looking at the current trajectory, it seems we are watching European economies slowly wither away one by one as Russia shuts off the valves and redirects its oil and gas toward the East, Latin America, and Africa. We can all look forward to a very pleasant winter. 👍

🙏🙏

Famine is already breaking out, and you've got Europeans looking at wealthy Indians with envy, thinking, "Man, I wish I had the lifestyle of an average Indian." In other news, apparently the Sun has turned green and the ocean is purple now. ☕

urbanotter said:It isn't about that, rather I find this level of hypocrisy and these shifting double standards absolutely nauseating.

Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, and as a direct result, massive amounts of weaponry are being funneled into the country.

Meanwhile, when NATO went into Libya under the guise of "bringing democracy," there weren't any sanctions imposed for that aggression, yet the arms embargo on Libya was actually extended.

The UN Security Council has extended the arms embargo on Libya for another year.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...cyId7LlrmnB6Qg

Why didn't the Russians secure an embargo then? Not their fault if they're running a "special operation"—Ukraine has every right to get help, so keep whining.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...04777551421442

Hey, feel free to come over here and explain how Russia did everything for its own good and people just showed up to help them out.

But please, tell me more about NATO. There’s honestly nothing better than using Soviet-style whataboutism as a "valid argument."

Let me break it down for you:

"Whataboutism is a logical fallacy where you try to discredit your opponent by accusing them of hypocrisy instead of actually addressing their point."

urbanotter said:It isn't about that, rather I find this level of hypocrisy and these shifting double standards absolutely nauseating.

Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, and as a direct result, massive amounts of weaponry are being funneled into the country.

Meanwhile, when NATO went into Libya under the guise of "bringing democracy," there weren't any sanctions imposed for that aggression, yet the arms embargo on Libya was actually extended.

The UN Security Council has extended the arms embargo on Libya for another year.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...cyId7LlrmnB6Qg

Sanctions basically mean that civilized nations (the EU, or at least the Western side, the USA, and Japan) just don't want to do business with you.

The West can't exactly slap sanctions on itself, but nobody's stopping other countries from walking away from the table.

North Korea tried that little experiment... let them share what they learned.

Joshua Wilson17 said:If the EU economy isn't capable of replacing the energy it imports with its own domestic supply, then maybe it really should just shut down...

Well, Venezuela is blocked just like Iran is. The USA won't even let them sell their oil on the NATO market. If anyone actually believes that Saudi Arabia is going to step up and fill the gap left by Russian production capacity, they are dreaming. Just look at Slovakia—they declared an economic emergency yesterday, halting oil and gas deliveries to three different countries because they calculated there is absolutely no way they can finalize trade deals with Norway and Saudi Arabia before winter hits. They’re projecting they won't have enough to cover their own needs this season, and a slow-motion panic is already setting in. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems completely indifferent to any "humanitarian" gestures, especially since they've decided to pivot away from the dollar in their dealings with Asia, opting instead to pay in rubles and yuan while totally ignoring Biden. And if they do decide to export more to the EU, the price is going to be fucking astronomical because now the entire world can screw us over with pricing; we have no leverage and will be forced to buy the most expensive oil and gas on the planet. So much for the luxury lifestyle—the middle class is headed straight for the gutter. And who should we thank for having zero options? The USA and NATO. It wasn't Russia that slapped the embargoes on Venezuela and Iran; it was us.

It is quite evident that NATO has made a massive blunder here; first, they hit Latin America and the Middle East with embargoes, and now they've turned that same logic toward Russia. So, where exactly is the EU supposed to get its oil and gas? Does anyone else exist besides Saudi Arabia, the USA, and Norway? And keep in mind, Norway itself has stated that they couldn't replace the EU's requirements in their wildest dreams, nor do they intend to try. As for Saudi Arabia, they couldn't care less about the USA or its allies, given that their exports to Asian and African states have increased regardless. Even if they do decide to export extra to us, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and India will eventually surpass the entire EU in terms of trade volume and the purchasing power of their citizens. I realize people here want to cheer for our side, but I am telling you... we are going to be freezing this winter. 👍

Canada is becoming the main player within the EU; they've even managed to push America out of the competition and position themselves as a leading supplier of oil and gas. Regarding renewable energy sources, it will take at least twenty years to reach the level we currently enjoy with Russian oil and gas, and in the meantime, demand is only going to rise. We could argue that we will never reach a point where renewables can "finance" demand unless we destroy every bit of flora and fauna on the planet—honestly, I don't even know where we'll import food from once we've slapped sanctions on the world's largest food producers. Those delusional dreams coming out of Brussels will remain nothing more than dreams.

rowdymaker17 said:Well, Venezuela is blocked just like Iran is. The USA won't even let them sell their oil on the NATO market. If anyone actually believes that Saudi Arabia is going to step up and fill the gap left by Russian production capacity, they are dreaming. Just look at Slovakia—they declared an economic emergency yesterday, halting oil and gas deliveries to three different countries because they calculated there is absolutely no way they can finalize trade deals with Norway and Saudi Arabia before winter hits. They’re projecting they won't have enough to cover their own needs this season, and a slow-motion panic is already setting in. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems completely indifferent to any "humanitarian" gestures, especially since they've decided to pivot away from the dollar in their dealings with Asia, opting instead to pay in rubles and yuan while totally ignoring Biden. And if they do decide to export more to the EU, the price is going to be fucking astronomical because now the entire world can screw us over with pricing; we have no leverage and will be forced to buy the most expensive oil and gas on the planet. So much for the luxury lifestyle—the middle class is headed straight for the gutter. And who should we thank for having zero options? The USA and NATO. It wasn't Russia that slapped the embargoes on Venezuela and Iran; it was us.

It is quite evident that NATO has made a massive blunder here; first, they hit Latin America and the Middle East with embargoes, and now they've turned that same logic toward Russia. So, where exactly is the EU supposed to get its oil and gas? Does anyone else exist besides Saudi Arabia, the USA, and Norway? And keep in mind, Norway itself has stated that they couldn't replace the EU's requirements in their wildest dreams, nor do they intend to try. As for Saudi Arabia, they couldn't care less about the USA or its allies, given that their exports to Asian and African states have increased regardless. Even if they do decide to export extra to us, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and India will eventually surpass the entire EU in terms of trade volume and the purchasing power of their citizens. I realize people here want to cheer for our side, but I am telling you... we are going to be freezing this winter. 👍

Canada is becoming the main player within the EU; they've even managed to push America out of the competition and position themselves as a leading supplier of oil and gas. Regarding renewable energy sources, it will take at least twenty years to reach the level we currently enjoy with Russian oil and gas, and in the meantime, demand is only going to rise. We could argue that we will never reach a point where renewables can "finance" demand unless we destroy every bit of flora and fauna on the planet—honestly, I don't even know where we'll import food from once we've slapped sanctions on the world's largest food producers. Those delusional dreams coming out of Brussels will remain nothing more than dreams.

Regarding that bolded part—you are sorely mistaken. The leadership in Saudi Arabia is directly dependent on the USA. They are acutely aware of that reality, and they will follow the guidance coming out of Washington precisely because of it.

This guy is straight-up making stuff up and building his own little universe, yet people are actually taking him seriously.

It’s impressive, though honestly a little concerning.

Just laying out the potential scenarios here

Oil reserves
Oil production

Gas reserves
Gas production

Nancy Gomez26 said:Regarding that bolded part—you are sorely mistaken. The leadership in Saudi Arabia is directly dependent on the USA. They are acutely aware of that reality, and they will follow the guidance coming out of Washington precisely because of it.

I am not sure if you are following the broader geopolitical shifts, but ever since the Saudi prince was convicted in absentia in the USA for the murder of an investigative journalist based on several counts in the indictment, Saudi Arabia hasn't given the slightest bit of damn about what the USA thinks, primarily because China and Russia are now presenting them with viable alternative options. This is precisely why they agreed to stop charging Asian nations in dollars and instead move toward using Asian national currencies, a move that infuriated Biden, who subsequently attempted to threaten Saudi Arabia, only to be completely ignored by the prince. They remain dependent on the USA only until they identify another power willing to step into the role of the American guarantor under terms that are more favorable to Saudi Arabia than their current arrangement with the USA. It all comes down to trade.

Regarding the relationship—see the article below:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-e...is-11646779430

Richard Wilson4 said:Sanctions basically mean that civilized nations (the EU, or at least the Western side, the USA, and Japan) just don't want to do business with you.

The West can't exactly slap sanctions on itself, but nobody's stopping other countries from walking away from the table.

North Korea tried that little experiment... let them share what they learned.

That whole "civilized" (LOL) minority looks a bit, I guess, like they've been totally reshuffled—kind of like how people say things go down in Mexico.

urbanheron4 said:Just laying out the potential scenarios here

Oil reserves
Oil production

Gas reserves
Gas production

None of that actually matters in the grand scheme of things. The only metric that carries any weight is the volume each nation exports, because export capacity represents the true surplus being pushed into the global market. Raw production figures are essentially a distraction; every major producer prioritizes their own domestic requirements and internal capacities first, and only then do they look at what's left. Furthermore, as market instability intensifies, we will inevitably see export volumes contract while prices climb accordingly. 👍

Donna Harris11 said:That whole "civilized" (LOL) minority looks a bit, I guess, like they've been totally reshuffled—kind of like how people say things go down in Mexico.

Precisely. Japan has made its stance clear: they aren't imposing an embargo on Russian raw materials because their entire economic engine is fundamentally dependent on them, and since both Japan and Korea sit in a region notoriously starved of natural resources, their entire technological productivity relies heavily on securing cheap supplies from Russia.

The Japanese Foreign Minister essentially told the USA and the EU that they shouldn't even bother asking Japan to follow suit, because, as I have pointed out before, Japan has spent far too many decades negotiating and stabilizing trade terms with Russia to suddenly dismantle everything they have painstakingly built. But then again, the EU will likely decide to sever all ties with Russia overnight simply because the USA is feeling aggressive and seems hellbent on provoking a conflict with Russia.

rowdymaker17 said:None of that actually matters in the grand scheme of things. The only metric that carries any weight is the volume each nation exports, because export capacity represents the true surplus being pushed into the global market. Raw production figures are essentially a distraction; every major producer prioritizes their own domestic requirements and internal capacities first, and only then do they look at what's left. Furthermore, as market instability intensifies, we will inevitably see export volumes contract while prices climb accordingly. 👍

Sure, but just because export levels were high in the past doesn't mean they'll stay that way. The rules of the game are shifting. Previously, those export volumes were dictated by price points and demand. Maybe some countries couldn't justify producing extra for export back then because competition made contracts impossible to swing. But that landscape is changing.
As for the EU, I honestly think Qatar is their best bet. You can actually strike a political deal with them, which is a hell of a lot easier than dealing with the neighbors. The only real headache is the lack of pipelines, so for now, they're stuck relying on LNG and tankers.

Does anyone actually know how much the EU has been hit by the sanctions against Russia compared to the USA?

urbanheron4 said:Sure, but just because export levels were high in the past doesn't mean they'll stay that way. The rules of the game are shifting. Previously, those export volumes were dictated by price points and demand. Maybe some countries couldn't justify producing extra for export back then because competition made contracts impossible to swing. But that landscape is changing.
As for the EU, I honestly think Qatar is their best bet. You can actually strike a political deal with them, which is a hell of a lot easier than dealing with the neighbors. The only real headache is the lack of pipelines, so for now, they're stuck relying on LNG and tankers.

I am in agreement there. However, one must consider that increased logistics inevitably lead to higher costs. Furthermore, if tanker traffic increases within enclosed waters, we can expect the seas to become polluted, effectively killing off any hope of tourism in coastal areas like the Florida Keys or the Pacific Northwest; you can practically anticipate a revolt from the local coastal counties. These coastal regions are our most profitable areas, and tourism revenue accounts for a full quarter of our entire budget.

A secondary issue is that the US possesses the largest charter fleet in the world, yet without fuel, those tourists have nothing to sail on. It is a classic Catch-22.

Consequently, I suspect the following sequence of events will unfold:

1. Germany will eventually concede to paying Russia for gas on Russia's own terms, allowing Nord Stream 2 to come online, while Canada remains exempt from embargoes and continues its business with Russia.
2. Germany will step in as the primary hub and main supplier of Russian gas for Europe, effectively replacing Ukraine. They will collect the transit fees that Ukraine used to pocket, but only after Ukraine decided to shoot itself in the foot by demanding that EU members stop buying Russian raw materials. Ukraine becomes irrelevant. Most likely, the Ukrainians themselves will eventually turn on Zelenskyy and his administration, leading the group to flee either to the United Kingdom or the USA.
3. Canada will emerge as a major supplier of Russian oil for Europe, collecting transit fees just as Germany does. Meanwhile, all the other EU nations will boast about how they aren't buying Russian raw materials, even though they are actually purchasing them through Germany and Canada—who buy them from Russia—making everyone feel satisfied on a pro-forma basis. Canada, alongside Germany and France, will solidify itself as one of the three dominant powers in the EU.
4. America will be left as a non-entity, an insignificant nation where corrupt politicians failed to play their once-in-a-lifetime hand because sucking up to Brussels idiots and the USA was deemed more important than positioning ourselves as serious trading partners.

That is my assessment. We shall see what happens after the winter passes. Those who survive the season will be the ones left to talk. For instance, Austria—which gets 80% of its raw materials from Russia—is in a total mess right now, as are the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Slovakia. One must also account for the fact that pollution levels will spike drastically as people pivot toward rigid derivatives like wood, briquettes, and pellets. In short, massive deforestation is imminent before winter hits.