Sanctions on Russia

wiredseal7 said:It looks like Lithuania's recognition of Russian sovereignty essentially guaranteed they'd allow the free flow of people and goods between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia:
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...X1ttu3MQAvLAZw

The politicians over there act like toddlers—we saw that clearly with those unprovoked spats with China.
Plus, they can't really do much damage to Kaliningrad anyway, since cargo will just head out by sea through that narrow corridor in international waters between Finland and Estonia—nobody has the right to shut that down.

Dmitry Rogozin😂

At the end of the day, they got exactly what they asked for. They were the ones who first suggested pulling back the recognition of sovereignty, so now even the flow of goods doesn't count for much.
Even though Kyiv totally played them—by pulling that document about Prince Volodymyr founding Moscow, which technically means Moscow doesn't even exist as an independent city anymore—they still fell for the trolls hook, line, and sinker.☕

William Anderson5 said:So you think Russia is feeling less of the squeeze? Are you actually considering the tech blockade they're facing?

Europe might deal with higher energy costs, but the Russians are looking at more than just price hikes—they're looking at a total shortage of cars, trucks, machinery, and spare parts. And that's not even mentioning the aviation sector...
That's just the tip of the iceberg.

The European Union will have to struggle with energy and inflation, while the Russians will be dealing with a massive collapse across almost everything else.

Take a closer look at where your tech actually comes from—TVs, computers, washing machines, microchips, phones, car components, aircraft parts, and so on.

What does the label say? "Made in the USA"? No. Most of them are labeled PRC (People's Republic of China). China has been supplying the West for decades, yet they aren't the ones facing these sanctions.

We have a situation where an energy superpower and an economic powerhouse have formed a military-political alliance (alongside India), yet you’re still peddling these fairy tales told by little EU bureaucrats.

It's pure idiocracy. They are completely dependent on everyone and everything. This entire system would literally vanish tomorrow if their main suppliers decided to slap them with sanctions. They think they can actually threaten or dictate terms to anyone!?

It's a tragicomedy. 🤣

It’s just one of those things... Asks:
Take a closer look at where everything actually comes from—your TVs, computers, washing machines, chips, phones, or even the parts used for cars and planes...

What does it actually say on them? Is it marked "Made in the EU," or is most of it just PRC? Honestly, they've been importing from China for decades now, but I doubt anyone's going to hit them with sanctions over it...

So you end up in a situation where the energy and economic superpowers have decided to join forces... A military-political alliance... (Plus India), and you’re still sitting here spinning fairy tales about those little nobodies in the European Union...

It’s a total idiocracy, completely dependent on everyone and everything else. They’d effectively vanish overnight if their main suppliers decided to slap them with some sanctions. And they actually think they can go around threatening people and barking orders?...

A tragicomedy... 🤣

That’s exactly it. China stays afloat by selling to Western markets. If you took away that access to Western capital and consumers, they’d be sliding right back into the Middle Ages. Both the Chinese leadership and their people know this, which is precisely why they avoid direct conflict with the West. That is the inherent weakness of an export-driven economy—you’re ultimately beholden to the people who pay the bills...

All this talk about military and political alliances is honestly just child's play. For an alliance like that to actually work, you need shared values and a foundation of mutual trust. That’s something that will never exist between Russia and China. And frankly, I don't know how you managed to wedge India into that equation, considering they are such a major geopolitical rival to China...

It's...
China would almost certainly lose its status as an economic powerhouse if they lost access to Western markets...
Then we could just trade toys to the Russians in exchange for oil... sounds like a perfect world...

Manufacturing migrated from the West to places like China or India simply because of market forces—specifically cheap labor and the lack of strict environmental regulations...
What remains in the West is high-profit production where margins are thick, mostly driven by brand power or extreme technical sophistication, where the actual cost of manufacturing matters much less...
As the standard of living rises within China, those specific market advantages start to evaporate. If China were to enter an economic war with the West, they’d essentially be set back 50 years... For the West, the fallout would mean consumer goods become harder to get (though we'd quickly stabilize production for essential items) and a forced reduction in our already excessive consumerist culture...

The situation with Russia is slightly different since they are primarily an exporter of raw materials...
Since global demand for commodities outstrips supply, Russian resources will always find a way to a buyer. The West will eventually pivot to sourcing materials from other places—offering higher prices than current buyers—which will consequently force the Russians to sell their goods in markets where those commodities are undervalued...
For the Russians, the real issue isn't the raw materials; it's the sanctions preventing them from buying Western goods and technology. They'll end up having to acquire that tech through intermediaries at inflated prices and in much smaller quantities...

Looking at all this, it's clear that in the long run, nobody is going to actually run out of anything (markets will eventually stabilize). Instead, what we'll see is a general rise in prices across the board. In the West, raw material costs will spike relatively more, while in Russia, the cost of everything else will climb significantly...

From the beginning, I've argued that we shouldn't impose any sanctions on the sale of Russian raw materials. Instead, we should hit those exports with heavy tariffs. This would incentivize buyers to seek out those same resources in cheaper locations, effectively forcing Russia to sell at a discount. Adjusting supply and demand would be easy enough just by tweaking tariff percentages...
On the flip side, we could heavily tax the sale of almost any product to Russia (except for medicine) and implement a total ban on technological products...
By doing this, we wouldn't trigger shortages, nor would we cause massive shifts in trade routes that—if traders are feeling greedy—result in uncontrolled price hikes for everyone...

At this rate, I might as well go ahead and apply for my Nobel Prize for this dissertation...

Anthony Moore15 said:It's...
China would almost certainly lose its status as an economic powerhouse if they lost access to Western markets...
Then we could just trade toys to the Russians in exchange for oil... sounds like a perfect world...

Manufacturing migrated from the West to places like China or India simply because of market forces—specifically cheap labor and the lack of strict environmental regulations...
What remains in the West is high-profit production where margins are thick, mostly driven by brand power or extreme technical sophistication, where the actual cost of manufacturing matters much less...
As the standard of living rises within China, those specific market advantages start to evaporate. If China were to enter an economic war with the West, they’d essentially be set back 50 years... For the West, the fallout would mean consumer goods become harder to get (though we'd quickly stabilize production for essential items) and a forced reduction in our already excessive consumerist culture...

The situation with Russia is slightly different since they are primarily an exporter of raw materials...
Since global demand for commodities outstrips supply, Russian resources will always find a way to a buyer. The West will eventually pivot to sourcing materials from other places—offering higher prices than current buyers—which will consequently force the Russians to sell their goods in markets where those commodities are undervalued...
For the Russians, the real issue isn't the raw materials; it's the sanctions preventing them from buying Western goods and technology. They'll end up having to acquire that tech through intermediaries at inflated prices and in much smaller quantities...

Looking at all this, it's clear that in the long run, nobody is going to actually run out of anything (markets will eventually stabilize). Instead, what we'll see is a general rise in prices across the board. In the West, raw material costs will spike relatively more, while in Russia, the cost of everything else will climb significantly...

From the beginning, I've argued that we shouldn't impose any sanctions on the sale of Russian raw materials. Instead, we should hit those exports with heavy tariffs. This would incentivize buyers to seek out those same resources in cheaper locations, effectively forcing Russia to sell at a discount. Adjusting supply and demand would be easy enough just by tweaking tariff percentages...
On the flip side, we could heavily tax the sale of almost any product to Russia (except for medicine) and implement a total ban on technological products...
By doing this, we wouldn't trigger shortages, nor would we cause massive shifts in trade routes that—if traders are feeling greedy—result in uncontrolled price hikes for everyone...

At this rate, I might as well go ahead and apply for my Nobel Prize for this dissertation...

I wouldn't go as far as calling it Nobel-worthy,
but I will point out that China produces about 500,000 engineers every year. They actively encourage their scientists to head to the West, and once those individuals implement Western technology abroad, the government offers massive incentives for them to return and work in Chinese labs and research institutes. Alongside their massive consumer goods industry, they are aggressively developing military, aerospace, and other high-tech sectors.

Only about half of the population is actually involved in the Chinese economic miracle, so there is absolutely no reason to believe they will run out of affordable labor. Furthermore, by incrementally raising wages and standards of living, China is essentially building its own massive internal consumer market.
China manufactures a vast array of sophisticated products, but you can't judge their entire economy by a single metric, nor can you expect to buy their most advanced tech at a bargain bin price.

urbanotter said:I wouldn't go as far as calling it Nobel-worthy,
but I will point out that China produces about 500,000 engineers every year. They actively encourage their scientists to head to the West, and once those individuals implement Western technology abroad, the government offers massive incentives for them to return and work in Chinese labs and research institutes. Alongside their massive consumer goods industry, they are aggressively developing military, aerospace, and other high-tech sectors.

Only about half of the population is actually involved in the Chinese economic miracle, so there is absolutely no reason to believe they will run out of affordable labor. Furthermore, by incrementally raising wages and standards of living, China is essentially building its own massive internal consumer market.
China manufactures a vast array of sophisticated products, but you can't judge their entire economy by a single metric, nor can you expect to buy their most advanced tech at a bargain bin price.

What kind of Chinese person working at a high-tech Western firm would actually consider moving back to China? Are you even grasping the sheer amount of money we're talking about here?...

I've been watching this video, and honestly, manufacturers aren't just hiking up prices... they've been playing games for the last two months.

It’s not just about the cost; they're actually shrinking everything. Shrinkflation is everywhere. A gallon of milk isn't really a full gallon anymore, but they keep the same size container so you don't even notice until you're pouring it.

They've even done it with butter—making the sticks smaller while raising the price. And because it's so expensive now, they've started putting the butter in those little plastic security boxes to stop people from shoplifting.

Then there's this other video where you can see how much color is missing from the packaging. Manufacturers are switching to plain white wrappers with fewer pictures and tiny logos just to save on ink.

Over in Russia, they still have American products and stuff from the European Union lying around, but that'll only last until the warehouses run dry. And you bet the prices are going up on whatever is left.

Every Russian in these videos knows the ruble is being artificially propped up; everyone realizes this kind of pricing can't last forever. Even the YouTubers there are walking on eggshells. They won't call the military operation what it actually is out of fear, so they use weird euphemisms like "the situation" or "that situation." Some are finally brave enough to call it a war, though.

Sent from my unknown using Reddit

William Anderson5 said:What kind of Chinese person working at a high-tech Western firm would actually consider moving back to China? Are you even grasping the sheer amount of money we're talking about here?...

Honestly, family ties in China run much deeper than most people realize... and that's not even mentioning what happens if someone hands you a blank check...

Just to show you how far off the mark you actually are:

Consequently, by 2017, a stock of 5.2 million Chinese had gone abroad and 3.1 million had returned; the return rate appears to be about 60.3 per cent. Taking into consideration that 1.45 million were still students, 83.7 per cent of those who had finished their overseas studies had returned.
https://academic.oup.com/spp/article/47/2/172/5658550

And in some cases, they were practically forced out, though...

Wernher von Braun: The man the US deported - Who then helped China into space
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-54695598

I can’t help but crack a smile every single time I read about how Russia and China have decided to join forces. 🤣🤣

Honestly, it sounds just like someone who has lost hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers, yet still insists they aren't actually in a war. 🤦

The only thing that would sound even more ridiculous is claiming that Germany and Bangladesh have formed a strategic alliance just to mass-produce... sneakers and T-shirts.
Best regards,

brightheron64 said:Honestly, family ties in China run much deeper than most people realize... and that's not even mentioning what happens if someone hands you a blank check...

Just to show you how far off the mark you actually are:

Consequently, by 2017, a stock of 5.2 million Chinese had gone abroad and 3.1 million had returned; the return rate appears to be about 60.3 per cent. Taking into consideration that 1.45 million were still students, 83.7 per cent of those who had finished their overseas studies had returned.
https://academic.oup.com/spp/article/47/2/172/5658550

And in some cases, they were practically forced out, though...

Wernher von Braun: The man the US deported - Who then helped China into space
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-54695598

Those are just students. We're talking about professionals in the high-tech sector who actually have the capacity to bring specialized expertise back to China. You don't pick up that kind of practical knowledge in a university lecture hall; you get it working at major private corporations...

William Anderson5 said:Those are just students. We're talking about professionals in the high-tech sector who actually have the capacity to bring specialized expertise back to China. You don't pick up that kind of practical knowledge in a university lecture hall; you get it working at major private corporations...

Well...
Technology isn't built by students; it's grown by scientists who act like mushrooms, sprouting up overnight. And while we sit here debating it, others are out there actually doing the work...

It’s certainly not something that makes me happy—in fact, it’s quite disheartening because, based on these trends, we're basically stuck in nowhere... But look, this isn't some tabloid rag from yesterday, either; it's a legitimate professional journal:

Scientific American is the membership magazine of The Institute of Physics, one of the largest physical societies in the world. It is an international monthly magazine covering all areas of physics, pure and applied, and is aimed at physicists in research, industry, physics outreach, and education worldwide
Corporation: IOP Publishing
Country: United Kingdom.

China overtakes the US in research quality, finds study
22 Mar 2022 Laura Hiscott
The quality of China’s scientific research output exceeded that of the US in 2019. That is according to a new analysis by researchers in the US, which also found that China had already overtaken the EU in research quality by 2015.
https://physicsworld.com/a/china-ove...y-finds-study/

But hey, if you still want to keep blowing your own trumpet, be my guest...

These aren't sanctions; they're a specialized financial operation.

Steven Kim35 said:These aren't sanctions; they're a specialized financial operation.

Exactly, because let's be real, the goal isn't to actually wreck Russia—it's just to cut off their access to cash.

electricsurfer47 said:I've been watching this video, and honestly, manufacturers aren't just hiking up prices... they've been playing games for the last two months.

It’s not just about the cost; they're actually shrinking everything. Shrinkflation is everywhere. A gallon of milk isn't really a full gallon anymore, but they keep the same size container so you don't even notice until you're pouring it.

They've even done it with butter—making the sticks smaller while raising the price. And because it's so expensive now, they've started putting the butter in those little plastic security boxes to stop people from shoplifting.

Then there's this other video where you can see how much color is missing from the packaging. Manufacturers are switching to plain white wrappers with fewer pictures and tiny logos just to save on ink.

Over in Russia, they still have American products and stuff from the European Union lying around, but that'll only last until the warehouses run dry. And you bet the prices are going up on whatever is left.

Every Russian in these videos knows the ruble is being artificially propped up; everyone realizes this kind of pricing can't last forever. Even the YouTubers there are walking on eggshells. They won't call the military operation what it actually is out of fear, so they use weird euphemisms like "the situation" or "that situation." Some are finally brave enough to call it a war, though.

Sent from my unknown using Reddit

The ruble story is more complicated than it looks. Russia has frozen stock sales for foreigners, banks are limiting foreign currency withdrawals to tiny amounts, and export corporations are forced to convert 80% of their inflows into rubles.
The big thing to understand is the gap between the buy and sell rates—it's massive. If someone in Russia wants to buy rubles, they might hand over a dollar and get 60 rubles. But if they try to go the other way? The ruble is worthless. First off, there's basically no foreign currency available due to the reasons I mentioned, and even if they offered 200 rubles for a dollar, who's actually going to part with that single dollar?

Nobody’s really broken down why Russia would want such a rock-solid ruble when their whole economy lives or dies by exports—logic says a weaker currency would be much better for them.

It's the same deal in the US—an overpowered dollar eats into profits, so it’d actually be a win if it weakened a bit.

Bryan Booth82 said:I can’t help but crack a smile every single time I read about how Russia and China have decided to join forces. 🤣🤣

Honestly, it sounds just like someone who has lost hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers, yet still insists they aren't actually in a war. 🤦

The only thing that would sound even more ridiculous is claiming that Germany and Bangladesh have formed a strategic alliance just to mass-produce... sneakers and T-shirts.
Best regards,

Modern China was built on Western dependency and it’s going to stay tethered to the West. Look at Apple leaving the Russian market—other corporations that rely heavily on Western business won't tie themselves too closely to the Russians, otherwise they'll get crushed by sanctions and lose their future entirely.
Modern Russia was also developed using dollars and Western tech; without that, I don't see any way for Russia to actually move forward. No country can pull that off—unless, maybe, the East builds its own separate financial system. If that happens, the real question is whether the West will bother keeping factories in China, especially since the Chinese economy is sitting on $35 trillion in debt anyway.

analogbear5 said:Nobody’s really broken down why Russia would want such a rock-solid ruble when their whole economy lives or dies by exports—logic says a weaker currency would be much better for them.

It's the same deal in the US—an overpowered dollar eats into profits, so it’d actually be a win if it weakened a bit.

The ruble isn't "strong" at all—it's basically trash on the global market. Demand for dollars in Russia is totally choked because people can't even convert their savings.
A huge part of this is that interest rate sitting north of 10%—which is basically junk bond territory for a currency. That's just the interbank rate, too; rates for regular people and businesses are even higher. It's effectively a total freeze on investment.

I’m not even talking about how "strong" the ruble is—just how expensive it's become.

The Russian government recently pulled the plug on public reporting regarding foreign trade, tax revenue, and the national budget. What exactly are they trying to hide?

William Anderson5 said:

It’s just one of those things... Asks:
Take a closer look at where everything actually comes from—your TVs, computers, washing machines, chips, phones, or even the parts used for cars and planes...

What does it actually say on them? Is it marked "Made in the EU," or is most of it just PRC? Honestly, they've been importing from China for decades now, but I doubt anyone's going to hit them with sanctions over it...

So you end up in a situation where the energy and economic superpowers have decided to join forces... A military-political alliance... (Plus India), and you’re still sitting here spinning fairy tales about those little nobodies in the European Union...

It’s a total idiocracy, completely dependent on everyone and everything else. They’d effectively vanish overnight if their main suppliers decided to slap them with some sanctions. And they actually think they can go around threatening people and barking orders?...

A tragicomedy... 🤣

That’s exactly it. China stays afloat by selling to Western markets. If you took away that access to Western capital and consumers, they’d be sliding right back into the Middle Ages. Both the Chinese leadership and their people know this, which is precisely why they avoid direct conflict with the West. That is the inherent weakness of an export-driven economy—you’re ultimately beholden to the people who pay the bills...

All this talk about military and political alliances is honestly just child's play. For an alliance like that to actually work, you need shared values and a foundation of mutual trust. That’s something that will never exist between Russia and China. And frankly, I don't know how you managed to wedge India into that equation, considering they are such a major geopolitical rival to China...

I think China would handle losing a market of 500 million people much more gracefully than the EU could handle losing a market of 4 billion, especially with fossil fuel shortages and resource scarcity looming. In that scenario, the sheer idiocy of the EU would plunge them straight back into the Middle Ages overnight.

That’s exactly what happens when China launches a "special operation" to reclaim Taiwan and achieve unification. It isn't a matter of if it will happen—it's strictly a matter of when.

All this talk about military and political alliances is child's play. Real alliances require shared values and mutual trust. That kind of bond will never exist between Russia and China. And honestly, only you would try to wedge India into that equation, considering they are a geopolitical rival to China.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is essentially a massive geopolitical heavyweight sitting right at the heart of Eurasia. Think of it as a powerhouse bloc where major players like China, Russia, and India all sit around the same table to tackle everything from regional security to economic integration. It’s not just some casual club; it's a structured organization designed to bolster stability and cooperation across a huge stretch of territory. While its origins were rooted in border security and fighting against things like terrorism and separatism, it has evolved into a much broader platform for influence. It’s a fascinating look at how power dynamics shift when these massive nations decide to coordinate their efforts on the global stage.

Back in July 2015 in Ufa, Russia, the SCO made the call to bring India and Pakistan in as full members. They both officially signed the memorandum of obligations in June 2016 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, kicking off the formal process to join the group as full members. On June 9, 2017, during a summit held in Astana, India and Pakistan officially became full members of the SCO.

Look, those fierce rivals—India and Pakistan—stepped up at the exact same time. You want to know what they actually have in common? They’re both hell-bent on toppling American hegemony and knocking its allies off the global throne.