Sanctions on Russia

Jeremy Turner9 said:In reality, this isn't a genuine bankruptcy, occurring because Russia finds itself unable to service its debts simply because its central bank and most of its commercial banks have been severed from the payment system and SWIFT...

I suspect this entire maneuver is merely a pretext to seize Russian assets that have been frozen...

It appears that the West is actually the one facing bankruptcy...

The West isn't bankrupt, it's just showing everyone how things really work
That whole Western mantra about how property rights—whether we're talking real estate, gold, cash in the bank, you name it—are sacred? It isn't worth the toilet paper used to wipe Joe Biden's ass.

So, get this—the Chinese phone giant Honor just pulled the plug on their sales over in Russia.

#Chinese smartphone manufacturer #Honor, which used to be part of #Huawei, has officially halted all device shipments to the #Russian market, according to #Russian media outlets. https://t.co/uUEJxDMRui

Car production in Russia plummeted by 97% this May compared to last year.
I’m no economist, but to me, that looks like a total meltdown. 🤔

That isn't particularly significant.

Exactly. Who actually gives a damn about domestic industrial manufacturing when you're sitting on a massive surplus like Russia does?
Just buy everything you need from someone else!
Oh wait...

Zachary Jackson4 said:That isn't particularly significant.

Not really, at least not until people start missing spare parts for the cars they're driving right now. Then it becomes a problem, I guess.

And honestly, everyone over in Russia is just driving German, French, or Japanese cars. They aren't exactly picking up Chinese or Indian models.

We went through our own weapons import embargo back in the nineties. We spent about three or four years arming ourselves to the teeth because, much like how Russia was struggling back then, we basically needed to be ready to march on Stalingrad all over again.

So, you can take those sanctions and shove them. Sure, it’ll get harder to source certain parts, but if those sanctions were actually enforced strictly, at least half the cars in Russia would be dead in the water within a year or two due to the part shortages. It's not that simple...

boldotter2 said:Not really, at least not until people start missing spare parts for the cars they're driving right now. Then it becomes a problem, I guess.

And honestly, everyone over in Russia is just driving German, French, or Japanese cars. They aren't exactly picking up Chinese or Indian models.

The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

urbanotter said:The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

I mean, that’s probably just because you've clearly never seen one of those Chinese cars sitting at an American mechanic shop. It’s not "just" a flaw that they’re cheap; the real issue is that they’re basically junk heaps compared to anything else—like, a Dacia would look like a spaceship next to them. The welding is terrible, they rust way faster than an old Chevy, and I bet the safety ratings for the driver and passengers are pretty sketchy.

urbanotter said:The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...mersant-a78055

Honestly, someone needs to go sit down with that Russian reporter from Kommersant and walk them through the actual math, because their claims about Chinese car sales and parts skyrocketing are totally disconnected from reality. It’s like they’re reading from a script written in a fever dream rather than looking at the data. If you actually look at the import numbers coming out of China, it's a complete freefall. We saw $190 million in imports in March, then it plummeted to $84 million in April, and by May, it had crashed all the way down to $32 million. You can't just ignore a trend that steep and pretend everything is booming. ☕

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, that’s probably just because you've clearly never seen one of those Chinese cars sitting at an American mechanic shop. It’s not "just" a flaw that they’re cheap; the real issue is that they’re basically junk heaps compared to anything else—like, a Dacia would look like a spaceship next to them. The welding is terrible, they rust way faster than an old Chevy, and I bet the safety ratings for the driver and passengers are pretty sketchy.

Of course, people assume you can just flip a switch and start mass-producing something as complex as a modern vehicle—and I'm not talking about some boutique Tesla operation making two cars a year. This Chinese scrap metal only looks modern because they shamelessly ripped off the styling. Copying a silhouette is easy; try copying what's actually under the hood.

Then there are the ones who genuinely believe China is going to churn out ten aircraft carriers tomorrow and kick Americans out of the Pacific Ocean. 🤦 They might build ten ships and slap an "aircraft carrier" label on them, but the US has a century of expertise and institutional knowledge on this. We're looking at a gap that won't be closed for at least another twenty years.

urbanotter said:The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

And yet, you literally said the exact opposite just six posts ago...

goldenowl73 said:So, get this—the Chinese phone giant Honor just pulled the plug on their sales over in Russia.

#Chinese smartphone manufacturer #Honor, which used to be part of #Huawei, has officially halted all device shipments to the #Russian market, according to #Russian media outlets. https://t.co/uUEJxDMRui

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAZP.ME/

Trading just kicked off for Gazprom shares on the Moscow Exchange today...

urbanotter said:The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

You clearly have a better handle on things than our neighbors over there 🤷
The collapse of the auto industry
In May, Russia produced only 3,700 cars—that’s a massive 97 percent drop compared to the same month last year, according to the national statistics bureau.

The Russophiles on this forum seem to think they know more than the Russians themselves.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, stated that sanctions against Moscow could be viewed as an "act of aggression and justification for war."

urbanotter said:The reality is that about half the components in those "sophisticated" Western cars are manufactured in China, and the relationship between Russia and China is actually improving.
People are already noticing that more and more Chinese vehicles are appearing on American highways, and honestly, they aren't any worse than the Western brands. Their only real "downside" is that they're cheaper.

Look, buddy, take a car and drive over to Germany. There are hundreds of companies in Bavaria that exist solely to serve BMW. You talk about the damn Chinese... if you head out into the countryside, you'll find at least one small shop producing some scrap metal for the auto industry. And they're all using the same German machinery—Bosch equipment, or heaven knows what else. This isn't about China; China has nothing to do with the core of the auto industry.
Then there's the other issue: where are these Chinese cars actually being serviced? Are you even aware that a car requires maintenance? Where are the supply chains for parts, or the network of authorized mechanics?
This transition is going to take years, if it ever actually happens...

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, that’s probably just because you've clearly never seen one of those Chinese cars sitting at an American mechanic shop. It’s not "just" a flaw that they’re cheap; the real issue is that they’re basically junk heaps compared to anything else—like, a Dacia would look like a spaceship next to them. The welding is terrible, they rust way faster than an old Chevy, and I bet the safety ratings for the driver and passengers are pretty sketchy.

If they can't buy Western vehicles because they're shutting down their own plants, what choice is left but to settle for Chinese scrap metal that falls apart after three years? Or perhaps more low-quality imports from India?
Think of the auto industry as merely the opening act. Soon, entire manufacturing sectors will shutter, replaced entirely by imports from China—provided anyone actually wants to buy them, since factory closures always lead straight to unemployment.

Joshua Myers432 said:Of course, people assume you can just flip a switch and start mass-producing something as complex as a modern vehicle—and I'm not talking about some boutique Tesla operation making two cars a year. This Chinese scrap metal only looks modern because they shamelessly ripped off the styling. Copying a silhouette is easy; try copying what's actually under the hood.

Then there are the ones who genuinely believe China is going to churn out ten aircraft carriers tomorrow and kick Americans out of the Pacific Ocean. 🤦 They might build ten ships and slap an "aircraft carrier" label on them, but the US has a century of expertise and institutional knowledge on this. We're looking at a gap that won't be closed for at least another twenty years.

I believe the Chinese could relatively easily construct ten aircraft carriers. It would take time, certainly, but they would eventually figure it out. What they lack is the jet engine capable of operating from such a platform. That is why they don't have the planes. They have engines, but they are limited by incredibly thin resources; materials science and precision manufacturing remain their Achilles' heel. They are weak there. Currently, they have no need for more than one carrier, as that single vessel likely serves only as a floating laboratory to develop functional procedures for when they finally possess a reliable engine and airframe. This ties back to their attempts to acquire Ukrainian engine technology. The Chinese are nowhere near having a functional aircraft carrier. I fail to see why they even bother; for them, it is nothing but a drain on both capital and time.

George Robinson43 said:If they can't buy Western vehicles because they're shutting down their own plants, what choice is left but to settle for Chinese scrap metal that falls apart after three years? Or perhaps more low-quality imports from India?
Think of the auto industry as merely the opening act. Soon, entire manufacturing sectors will shutter, replaced entirely by imports from China—provided anyone actually wants to buy them, since factory closures always lead straight to unemployment.

And it’s not just that. When you kill off the auto industry, you're basically killing all the local suppliers and small businesses that rely on them. It's going to leave so many families struggling just so Putin can go ahead and annex Ukraine.

Jesse Hughes6 said:And yet, you literally said the exact opposite just six posts ago...

Let's not go crushing our colleague's dreams quite so fast.
Just leave him be for a moment; let him enjoy his little fantasy regarding "Russian dominance" for a while longer.