Sanctions on Russia

goldenowl73 said:By the way, did you catch that they're actually selling it for maybe $30 to $40 a barrel? It's not $80 like you mentioned. Once you factor in that $19 extraction cost plus the shipping to India—since there isn't a direct pipeline there—the margins look a lot different.

I haven't had a chance to read through this yet.

I’ve been looking closely at the recent shifts in the energy markets, and there is some pretty significant movement happening with Russian crude. It looks like they are offloading their raw oil at massive discounts right now—we're talking anywhere from $30 to $40 less per barrel than the standard market rates. It's one of those developments that really makes you stop and think about how much the global supply chain is being reshaped by these price gaps.When you take a look at how things stack up against those benchmark crude oil prices, specifically when BP is hovering somewhere between $110 and $120, you really start to see the broader economic picture shift. I remember back when I was working in logistics a few years ago, watching the ticker tape change in real-time; there’s always this specific kind of tension in the air when those numbers climb into that range. It's not just about the raw data on a screen, though—it's about how that volatility ripples through everything we touch. When you compare current market movements to that particular $110 to $120 window, you can see how much pressure it puts on the entire supply chain, making every decision feel a bit more heavy and deliberate. The price of oil per barrel saw a significant jump, largely driven by those heavy-hitting Western sanctions being leveled against Moscow following their invasion of Ukraine.

Look, man, you either missed the point entirely or you're having some serious trouble with your reading comprehension—or maybe just your English.

If you’re struggling that much, maybe just stick to using Google Translate, or find someone who can actually help you out with the reading and the math.

urbanotter said:I haven't had a chance to read through this yet.

I’ve been looking closely at the recent shifts in the energy markets, and there is some pretty significant movement happening with Russian crude. It looks like they are offloading their raw oil at massive discounts right now—we're talking anywhere from $30 to $40 less per barrel than the standard market rates. It's one of those developments that really makes you stop and think about how much the global supply chain is being reshaped by these price gaps.When you take a look at how things stack up against those benchmark crude oil prices, specifically when BP is hovering somewhere between $110 and $120, you really start to see the broader economic picture shift. I remember back when I was working in logistics a few years ago, watching the ticker tape change in real-time; there’s always this specific kind of tension in the air when those numbers climb into that range. It's not just about the raw data on a screen, though—it's about how that volatility ripples through everything we touch. When you compare current market movements to that particular $110 to $120 window, you can see how much pressure it puts on the entire supply chain, making every decision feel a bit more heavy and deliberate. The price of oil per barrel saw a significant jump, largely driven by those heavy-hitting Western sanctions being leveled against Moscow following their invasion of Ukraine.

Look, man, you either missed the point entirely or you're having some serious trouble with your reading comprehension—or maybe just your English.

If you’re struggling that much, maybe just stick to using Google Translate, or find someone who can actually help you out with the reading and the math.

Look, I'll admit if I missed something on my end—I was moving fast! But seriously, a 30 to 40 percent discount is still massive, especially when you factor in the shipping costs. And honestly, what do we think is going to happen to those discounts once oil prices tank down to $80 because of an upcoming recession?

analogbear5 said:Right now? Nobody has a clue. But it’s definitely coming—unless we all go up in smoke in some nuclear standoff, at which point stocks and gold won't mean squat compared to a can of beans.

It’s just like not knowing exactly when a massive asteroid might slam into Earth and finish us off just like the dinosaurs did.

Nobody knows the timing, but everyone knows it’s inevitable; it’s really just a matter of when.

Which means you either start building bunkers or head out to some remote hole in Alaska to set up a spot where you can survive for decades or even centuries.

Forgive me if I sound like a bit of a doom-and-gloom pessimist here, but I honestly just hope people can find a little bit of common sense
instead of letting themselves be driven purely by greed, vanity, and pure arrogance.

So how much have they actually managed to pull in lately? Is there enough to patch up the budget?

Mainly, I think the Russ will figure things out long-term—though it won't be easy—but in the short to medium term, they’re going to struggle quite a bit.

goldenowl73 said:Look, I'll admit if I missed something on my end—I was moving fast! But seriously, a 30 to 40 percent discount is still massive, especially when you factor in the shipping costs. And honestly, what do we think is going to happen to those discounts once oil prices tank down to $80 because of an upcoming recession?

Of course, it’s a huge discount, but we have to remember we're talking about prices inflated by speculators on the commodities exchanges.

An $80 per barrel price is essentially what the Russians were selling oil for before the war in Ukraine started and before the sanctions on Russia were implemented.

So, they are actually still making good money, and thanks to the sanctions, speculators have basically paved the way for India and China to make just as much profit.
To hell with Europe and everyone Putin labeled as an enemy of Russia.

Whatever, someone has to foot the bill for the costs of this war and the sanctions.😉

p.s.
I see everyone here is quite the expert, so perhaps someone can explain to me how much these sanctions actually impact shipping freight rates. Why did the cost of transporting a container from China to Europe skyrocket from roughly $2,500 per unit to nearly $20,000 per unit?
Some sailors I know have mentioned that Shanghai is absolutely choked with ships packed with containers just waiting to head to their destinations.
Is that happening because of the sanctions, or is there some other reason behind it??

If everything is going so smoothly for them, why the constant whining about sanctions? 🤔

analogbear5 said:So how much have they actually managed to pull in lately? Is there enough to patch up the budget?

Mainly, I think the Russ will figure things out long-term—though it won't be easy—but in the short to medium term, they’re going to struggle quite a bit.

I can't quite wrap my head around exactly what they think we're exporting.

It seems like your crystal ball might have lost its shine lately; perhaps it just got a bit clouded by all the constant media hype and noise.

I completely agree that things are going to get difficult, but I can't help but wonder who will actually feel the brunt of it—which side will truly suffer more from these sanctions in the long run?

crimsoncyclist71 said:If everything is going so smoothly for them, why the constant whining about sanctions? 🤔

It’s probably because Putin is sitting there all by himself, without any friends to cheer him on or toast with champagne every time they come up with yet another brilliant new round of sanctions.

The deglobalization everyone keeps dreaming about looks exactly like what you’re describing regarding Western economies. Next step—hopefully—is bringing some industrial capacity back from China, starting with chips.

De-dollarization is already creeping in, thanks to those frozen Russian reserves.

urbanotter said:Of course, it’s a huge discount, but we have to remember we're talking about prices inflated by speculators on the commodities exchanges.

An $80 per barrel price is essentially what the Russians were selling oil for before the war in Ukraine started and before the sanctions on Russia were implemented.

So, they are actually still making good money, and thanks to the sanctions, speculators have basically paved the way for India and China to make just as much profit.
To hell with Europe and everyone Putin labeled as an enemy of Russia.

Whatever, someone has to foot the bill for the costs of this war and the sanctions.😉

p.s.
I see everyone here is quite the expert, so perhaps someone can explain to me how much these sanctions actually impact shipping freight rates. Why did the cost of transporting a container from China to Europe skyrocket from roughly $2,500 per unit to nearly $20,000 per unit?
Some sailors I know have mentioned that Shanghai is absolutely choked with ships packed with containers just waiting to head to their destinations.
Is that happening because of the sanctions, or is there some other reason behind it??

I was watching a serious segment on HR1 recently where industry pros were explaining that, due to extraction technology, Russian oil becomes unprofitable below $100 a barrel, whereas Arabian oil sits around $70. Anything above that is profit; anything below is a loss.

Michelle Young50 said:I was watching a serious segment on HR1 recently where industry pros were explaining that, due to extraction technology, Russian oil becomes unprofitable below $100 a barrel, whereas Arabian oil sits around $70. Anything above that is profit; anything below is a loss.

That’s absolute nonsense—honestly pretty easy to debunk. I've heard numbers in the 60-80 range before, but $100? That's just laughable.

crimsoncyclist71 said:I honestly didn't expect a coherent response from you—considering you've spent the whole time spinning fairy tales. It’s just like how everyone was peddling those myths about Russia's military might right before the war in Ukraine kicked off. I still remember all that hype about their "unstoppable" army and state-of-the-art tech—only for them to struggle miserably while fighting literally 100 miles away from their own logistics hubs back in Russia.

I honestly can't wrap my head around how some people keep pushing so hard for fascist Russia. It's wild.
Look, you gotta remember that history is basically life's toughest teacher—and if there's one thing she's taught us, it's that fascism always ends up losing in the end. Period.

Polish Nobel laureate Czeslaw Milosz—who wrote "Grateful Mind," a book where he dives into how people navigated life in post-war Stalinist Poland—once described democracy as being like a raft, where everyone’s just paddling in their own direction. Authoritarian regimes, though? They're more like massive ships that occasionally smash into the rocks the raft is trying so hard to paddle past.

Michelle Young50 said:I was watching a serious segment on HR1 recently where industry pros were explaining that, due to extraction technology, Russian oil becomes unprofitable below $100 a barrel, whereas Arabian oil sits around $70. Anything above that is profit; anything below is a loss.

Either you didn't hear them clearly, or those weren't actually the experts you think they were.

In reality, pulling oil out of the ground in places like Saudi Arabia costs roughly $9 per barrel, while American shale oil from fracking sits closer to $44 per barrel.

Maybe do a little more digging.

urbanotter said:Either you didn't hear them clearly, or those weren't actually the experts you think they were.

In reality, pulling oil out of the ground in places like Saudi Arabia costs roughly $9 per barrel, while American shale oil from fracking sits closer to $44 per barrel.

Maybe do a little more digging.

Different sources put it anywhere from $30 to $50, though $40–$45 is probably the sweet spot. Russian production runs at about $19—that’s just an average, obviously, since things vary based on the site, distance, and how tapped out the wells are.

The big question marks, though, are the capital expenditures and whether they can even keep pumping from the southern fields, given they were relying heavily on American tech and know-how.

urbanotter said:Drop the link. I don't care about myths. I breezed through those stories back in elementary school and actually liked them. I know plenty of their gods and heroes
from Heraclitus and Eddie all the way to Jason

But the topic here is sanctions Russia, not mythology.

The cost of producing a single barrel of Brent crude oil came in at around $42 for Russian onshore projects, and $44 for offshore projects, IHS Markit estimated. That was more than twice the $17 per barrel production costs in Saudi Arabia — the cheapest in the world.

LINK

Oil production in Russia costs $42 a barrel. In Saudi Arabia, it's $17, which is the lowest. Where did you get that $7 figure from? Probably from the myths you're always spinning.

Is anyone actually paying attention to the latest projections coming out of JPMorgan Chase? Seriously, does anyone else find these numbers absolutely staggering? I feel like we’re just watching a slow-motion train wreck unfold in real-time while everyone else pretends everything is perfectly fine. How can they look at the current volatility and still come up with these specific estimates? It feels less like a calculated forecast and more like they're reading from a script written in a vacuum. Are we really expected to take these figures at face value without asking what massive variables they’ve conveniently ignored? It’s infuriating! We need more than just high-level guesswork if we’re going to navigate this mess.
Is anyone else watching this unfold with a sense of absolute dread? Because I am. We are staring down the barrel of a massive retaliation from Russia, and if their plan to strike back at the West succeeds, we aren't just looking at a price hike—we’re looking at a total meltdown where a single barrel of oil could skyrocket to a staggering $380! Can you even wrap your head around that number? Does anyone truly understand the sheer chaos that would trigger in the American economy? We’re talking about a global energy landscape being weaponized in real-time. If they pull this off, the ripple effects will hit every single household from New York to Los Angeles. Are we actually prepared for the fallout of such a radical escalation? It feels like we are walking right into a storm that nobody wants to acknowledge.

The recent data coming out of the energy sector is nothing short of staggering, and frankly, it makes you wonder if anyone in the mainstream financial media is actually paying attention to the ground reality. We’re looking at figures that challenge everything we thought we knew about production efficiency and global market shifts. According to the latest estimates from IHS Markit, the numbers are eye-opening. Specifically, when you look at the sheer economics of extraction, the cost of producing a single barrel of Brent crude oil came in AT around $ 42 for Russian onshore projects. Think about that for a second. In an era where we talk constantly about inflation, rising overhead, and the massive capital expenditures required to keep the lights on, these figures suggest a level of operational efficiency that should be making every major Western energy player sweat. How is this even possible? How can these onshore operations maintain such low margins while the rest of the world struggles with skyrocketing costs and supply chain volatility? It raises a massive question: Are we truly prepared for what happens when these low-cost producers decide to flood the market? If these production costs remain this low, the traditional pricing models used by the big players in the West might be completely obsolete. We aren't just talking about a minor fluctuation here; we are talking about a fundamental shift in the global power dynamic of energy. If a producer can pull oil out of the ground at forty-two bucks a barrel, they have an incredible amount of leverage over the global economy. Is the West actually accounting for this level of competition, or are we all just sitting around waiting for the inevitable disruption? It seems to me that the "experts" are far too focused on short-term political maneuvering and not nearly enough on the brutal, cold math of energy economics. When the math doesn't add up, the market eventually forces the correction—and when that happens, it won't be pretty.

If Moscow were to pull a move like that, they’d essentially be triggering a full-blown economic catastrophe—but here’s the kicker: they actually have the capacity to weather the storm themselves. Wouldn't that be a nightmare scenario? They'd be setting the house on fire while standing perfectly fine in the middle of the flames.

Look, I’m no expert, but let’s call this what it is: incredibly naive.

Let’s say I’m out there playing in the big leagues of the oil industry, moving massive volumes... and then the Russians decide to slash their production just to squeeze my buyers, hit them where it hurts, and bleed them dry economically. What kind of move is that?🤔

a. I I'm in. Count me in. If we’re talking about this whole Russian vendetta, how on earth would that even play out? He’s completely alienated his own customer base. How can you claim to be building a business when you're actively driving away the very people who keep your lights on? It’s absolute madness.
bI’m ramping up production. How exactly does he plan on turning a profit?And he actually went ahead and gave his customers the power to... Is there any reason why I couldn't continue importing and buying in the future? Why should anyone assume the door is closed? Give me the damn oil!

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I don't know the first thing about economics, but what we're seeing here... a Honestly, it wouldn't benefit me one bit. Not even a little.🤔🤔

I'm still waiting for someone to actually address the core issue here! Does anyone even care about the fundamental mechanics of what we're discussing, or are we all just going to sit here and watch the chaos unfold without a single coherent thought? It feels like I’m shouting into a void. Where is the actual substance?

Topic: "sanctions Russia" ☕

urbanotter said:Of course, it’s a huge discount, but we have to remember we're talking about prices inflated by speculators on the commodities exchanges.

An $80 per barrel price is essentially what the Russians were selling oil for before the war in Ukraine started and before the sanctions on Russia were implemented.

So, they are actually still making good money, and thanks to the sanctions, speculators have basically paved the way for India and China to make just as much profit.
To hell with Europe and everyone Putin labeled as an enemy of Russia.

Whatever, someone has to foot the bill for the costs of this war and the sanctions.😉

p.s.
I see everyone here is quite the expert, so perhaps someone can explain to me how much these sanctions actually impact shipping freight rates. Why did the cost of transporting a container from China to Europe skyrocket from roughly $2,500 per unit to nearly $20,000 per unit?
Some sailors I know have mentioned that Shanghai is absolutely choked with ships packed with containers just waiting to head to their destinations.
Is that happening because of the sanctions, or is there some other reason behind it??

Much like inflation or fuel prices, that massive spike actually started well before any sanctions were even on the table, though I suppose it's easier to blame them if that fits your narrative.

It seems my crystal ball is equally blind to the past as it is to the future.

Russia thought they could just steamroll through Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, while the West assumed sanctions would crush Russia just as quickly. I guess both sides were wrong. Nothing happens overnight. It’s a massive lie to suggest that sanctions only hurt us and don't impact Russia at all. Right now, the Russians are basically running on old stockpiles—raw materials, spare parts, and whatnot. The real trouble starts once those reserves run dry. The Russian economy looks stable for the moment because they have cash on hand and certain supplies, but I suppose problems will likely hit this fall or winter when those stocks are gone. Once citizens burn through their emergency savings, things change. Actually, Russia is way more dependent on the countries imposing sanctions than it is the other way around. Once the European Union finds a workaround for raw materials, they won't need Russia anymore. Meanwhile, Russia needs so many things from the nations that sanctioned them. According to recent Russian polling, 60 percent of citizens feel their financial situation
has worsened, and about 65 percent think it’s only going to get worse. The Russians aren't crashing as fast as some people predicted, but they are sliding downward, slowly but surely. Independent Russian economists seem to think that if this war drags on and sanctions stay put—especially if the European Union drastically cuts back on Russian energy—the Russian economy could end up right back where it was after the collapse of the USSR in 1990. There is one big difference this time, though; Russia actually has a middle class now, and they know they deserve better. For now, everything in Moscow seems mostly fine, but the first cracks are showing in smaller towns and rural areas, and even in Saint Petersburg. Bigger issues are expected when people in Moscow start running out of things too. Maybe we'll see an uptick in car thefts again since there won't be any new ones available, and parts will be a nightmare. You'll see it with aviation, shipbuilding, and so on. So, I guess we are looking at a very turbulent and difficult fall and winter. I doubt Russians will starve, and certainly not Americans, but it won't be easy for a lot of people, I suppose.

Bryan Booth82 said:Let’s be real: sanctions work. No serious person could argue that being hit by them is some kind of win for the target.
The real debate, if you want to get into the weeds, is how much collateral damage they inflict on the ones imposing them.
As a general rule, you have a coalition of groups or nations aiming these measures at a single individual or entity, and usually, the ones with the most leverage are the ones pulling the strings.
Consequently, if these sanctions end up hurting the countries that implemented them, that burden gets spread out among the many. But the target? They can hardly "spread out" the damage they're taking. They bear the brunt of it alone.

Honestly, I’m convinced that sanctions are merely the opening move... in fact, I’d go as far as to say the second step should have already been taken by now.
Best,

to say sanctions don't work... well, Russia wouldn't keep bringing it up if they didn't. They mention it constantly. That's a sign they're working.