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Sanctions on Russia

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 645 views · 9.5K replies

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Jonathan Martinez11 Jonathan Martinez11 Newcomer
7 messages
joined Jul 2022
#5441 ·
electricsurfer47 said:to say sanctions don't work... well, Russia wouldn't keep bringing it up if they didn't. They mention it constantly. That's a sign they're working.

Of course they work. You can already feel certain products running low, and some regions have already started imposing sales restrictions. It's like one Russian economist pointed out—sure, we could probably find replacements for something like McDonald's, but how on earth are we going to replace critical components for airplanes, or parts for ships, or even something like Ikea?
electricsurfer47 electricsurfer47 Active Member
177 messages
joined Jun 2018
#5442 ·
Jonathan Martinez11 said:Russia thought they could just steamroll through Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, while the West assumed sanctions would crush Russia just as quickly. I guess both sides were wrong. Nothing happens overnight. It’s a massive lie to suggest that sanctions only hurt us and don't impact Russia at all. Right now, the Russians are basically running on old stockpiles—raw materials, spare parts, and whatnot. The real trouble starts once those reserves run dry. The Russian economy looks stable for the moment because they have cash on hand and certain supplies, but I suppose problems will likely hit this fall or winter when those stocks are gone. Once citizens burn through their emergency savings, things change. Actually, Russia is way more dependent on the countries imposing sanctions than it is the other way around. Once the European Union finds a workaround for raw materials, they won't need Russia anymore. Meanwhile, Russia needs so many things from the nations that sanctioned them. According to recent Russian polling, 60 percent of citizens feel their financial situation
has worsened, and about 65 percent think it’s only going to get worse. The Russians aren't crashing as fast as some people predicted, but they are sliding downward, slowly but surely. Independent Russian economists seem to think that if this war drags on and sanctions stay put—especially if the European Union drastically cuts back on Russian energy—the Russian economy could end up right back where it was after the collapse of the USSR in 1990. There is one big difference this time, though; Russia actually has a middle class now, and they know they deserve better. For now, everything in Moscow seems mostly fine, but the first cracks are showing in smaller towns and rural areas, and even in Saint Petersburg. Bigger issues are expected when people in Moscow start running out of things too. Maybe we'll see an uptick in car thefts again since there won't be any new ones available, and parts will be a nightmare. You'll see it with aviation, shipbuilding, and so on. So, I guess we are looking at a very turbulent and difficult fall and winter. I doubt Russians will starve, and certainly not Americans, but it won't be easy for a lot of people, I suppose.

Also,

Russia knows they're sinking; only Putin knows just how deep it goes. I honestly think he's planning to cut off gas and oil right before winter hits. He's probably calculated that that's the best way to squeeze Europe the hardest.

But Europe isn't doing nearly enough to prepare for that.

I don't hear anything being said publicly about how we're actually replacing the gas supply. Why aren't they giving people tax breaks or subsidies to buy wood stoves and firewood?? I know, I know, it's not the "green" solution. But wood has always been, and will continue to be, cheaper than gas.

Plus, it would take the pressure off the gas demand, which could then be used to produce synthetic fertilizer that we're going to desperately need next year. If anyone is actually planning to react, they need to do it right now.
hiddeneagle98 hiddeneagle98 Regular
300 messages
joined Nov 2023
#5443 ·
Kate Lewis3 said:Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if some big shot at the top has shady ties to Russia and intentionally made the company reliant on a single supplier—especially since they aren't even a major player in global titanium production anyway (African nations are leading the pack; South Africa exports nearly 700 times more kilograms than Russia does).

egzekli
hiddeneagle98 hiddeneagle98 Regular
300 messages
joined Nov 2023
#5444 ·
electricsurfer47 said:Also,

Russia knows they're sinking; only Putin knows just how deep it goes. I honestly think he's planning to cut off gas and oil right before winter hits. He's probably calculated that that's the best way to squeeze Europe the hardest.

But Europe isn't doing nearly enough to prepare for that.

I don't hear anything being said publicly about how we're actually replacing the gas supply. Why aren't they giving people tax breaks or subsidies to buy wood stoves and firewood?? I know, I know, it's not the "green" solution. But wood has always been, and will continue to be, cheaper than gas.

Plus, it would take the pressure off the gas demand, which could then be used to produce synthetic fertilizer that we're going to desperately need next year. If anyone is actually planning to react, they need to do it right now.

We keep hearing our leaders claim the gas reserves are at 50% and that they have plans to hit 90% once deliveries arrive... but if I'm reading the situation correctly, those reserves might just be enough to limp through the season.

And while we're on the subject, I don't understand why we don't have adequate grain silos. Is it just that expensive, or is the return on investment not high enough for them? The government should be treating this as a matter of national security, even if it’s essentially a sunk cost. Otherwise, all this talk about banning grain exports is completely pointless... you can't actually enforce an export ban if you don't have the infrastructure to store the stuff.

In this new era, governments—actual administrations—have to step up and handle these fundamental necessities. You can't leave this stuff to profit-driven capitalism to solve. In fact, it's that exact obsession with the bottom line that creates these strategic vulnerabilities in the first place.
brightheron64 brightheron64 Regular
408 messages
joined Apr 2016
#5445 ·
hiddeneagle98 said:We keep hearing our leaders claim the gas reserves are at 50% and that they have plans to hit 90% once deliveries arrive... but if I'm reading the situation correctly, those reserves might just be enough to limp through the season.

And while we're on the subject, I don't understand why we don't have adequate grain silos. Is it just that expensive, or is the return on investment not high enough for them? The government should be treating this as a matter of national security, even if it’s essentially a sunk cost. Otherwise, all this talk about banning grain exports is completely pointless... you can't actually enforce an export ban if you don't have the infrastructure to store the stuff.

In this new era, governments—actual administrations—have to step up and handle these fundamental necessities. You can't leave this stuff to profit-driven capitalism to solve. In fact, it's that exact obsession with the bottom line that creates these strategic vulnerabilities in the first place.

But why would they bother? Do you truly believe anyone in this administration is actually thinking strategically or looking at the long term...

Just take a look at the prices for flour, bread, and pastries lately... meanwhile, farmers are being offered buyback prices as low as 2-$0.70 cents per pound (compared to the much higher rates on the European Union market).
Whoever owns the silos will just store their stock safely and wait out the harvest season, and once those prices skyrocket again... well, they'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

It’s also worth noting who actually controls the storage infrastructure (for instance, companies like PPK Valpovo—where 45,000 tons are held by Stipa Matić, the owner of M-san and King ITC).
Bryan Booth82 Bryan Booth82 Regular
483 messages
joined Feb 2024
#5446 ·
brightheron64 said:But why would they bother? Do you truly believe anyone in this administration is actually thinking strategically or looking at the long term...

Just take a look at the prices for flour, bread, and pastries lately... meanwhile, farmers are being offered buyback prices as low as 2-$0.70 cents per pound (compared to the much higher rates on the European Union market).
Whoever owns the silos will just store their stock safely and wait out the harvest season, and once those prices skyrocket again... well, they'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

It’s also worth noting who actually controls the storage infrastructure (for instance, companies like PPK Valpovo—where 45,000 tons are held by Stipa Matić, the owner of M-san and King ITC).

Is there really nothing to be done without a heavy hand...?
Best regards,
urbanotter urbanotter Regular
431 messages
joined Oct 2020
#5447 ·
crimsoncyclist71 said:
The cost of producing a single barrel of Brent crude oil came in at around $42 for Russian onshore projects, and $44 for offshore projects, IHS Markit estimated. That was more than twice the $17 per barrel production costs in Saudi Arabia — the cheapest in the world.

LINK

Oil production in Russia costs $42 a barrel. In Saudi Arabia, it's $17, which is the lowest. Where did you get that $7 figure from? Probably from the myths you're always spinning.

If you had actually taken the time to read the article through to the end, you might have realized that the actual cost of extraction is much closer to my initial estimate; instead, you jumped to a conclusion based solely on the first paragraph.

The figures I cited were gathered from Dekanić or Štern, both of whom I consider to be among the premier experts on the oil business in America. I'd give the edge to Štern, given he spent his entire professional career working directly in operations.

As for the rest of the article, there is this specific passage:

Differences in production costs don't just depend on how easy it is to extract the resource or the project's location, but also on the taxes levied by governments in various jurisdictions. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that operating costs without taxes would sit around $32 per barrel in Russia, according to reports from RBC.

To be clear, I never claimed the cost was $7 per barrel; I said it was $9 in Saudi Arabia and $19 in Russia.

It stands to reason that pulling oil out of the harsh conditions in Siberia is going to be significantly more expensive than extracting it in many other parts of the world.

I won't go down that rabbit hole here because I know I'm being watched quite closely as it is,

but I simply wanted to point out that even with sanctions in place, Russia is still making a massive profit at $80 a barrel. Since the major oil companies there are state-owned, an enormous amount of cash flows directly into the national budget, providing Russia with the funds necessary to finance the war despite all the sanctions.

Keep in mind that the extraction cost per barrel in Russia is merely an estimate from IHS Markit, just as that $32 figure is just an estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau.

So, despite the sanctions, Russia continues to export oil with healthy margins to Sika, where it gets refined into derivatives and shipped globally, essentially serving as Indian products and derivatives.

The sanctions have been a massive failure for the West. Looking at the big picture, it isn't just self-inflicted damage; it’s an assault on all the postulates and ideals that the West and America have clung to for years, treating them like sacred dogmas.

But that is a much larger topic, and I see the moderator has already turned red and warned us to stick to the subject matter.
It is actually quite difficult to stay on track when sanctions are so deeply intertwined with strategic shifts in the global landscape, and drifting away from the core topic is incredibly easy to do.
bluerider63 bluerider63 Regular
382 messages
joined Jan 2013
#5448 ·
electricsurfer47 said:to say sanctions don't work... well, Russia wouldn't keep bringing it up if they didn't. They mention it constantly. That's a sign they're working.

Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.
Melissa Rivera5 Melissa Rivera5 Regular
432 messages
joined Jun 2024
#5449 ·
brightheron64 said:But why would they bother? Do you truly believe anyone in this administration is actually thinking strategically or looking at the long term...

Just take a look at the prices for flour, bread, and pastries lately... meanwhile, farmers are being offered buyback prices as low as 2-$0.70 cents per pound (compared to the much higher rates on the European Union market).
Whoever owns the silos will just store their stock safely and wait out the harvest season, and once those prices skyrocket again... well, they'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

It’s also worth noting who actually controls the storage infrastructure (for instance, companies like PPK Valpovo—where 45,000 tons are held by Stipa Matić, the owner of M-san and King ITC).

I guess we technically have strategic reserves, but the real question is what’s actually inside them. A few years back, it came out that everything had been looted and ended up funneled into Agrokor. I really hope the idiots don't pull the same stunt this time, because if things get desperate, people are gonna be calling for heads to roll.
brightheron64 brightheron64 Regular
408 messages
joined Apr 2016
#5450 ·
Bryan Booth82 As expressed by:
It really feels like nothing can ever truly get done without a firm hand at the helm...
I suppose we should probably get started on this, though I can't say I'm entirely sure where we're headed yet...

If only people could learn to look just a little bit further than what’s right in front of their own faces...

red_shrike As expressed by...
Well, we technically have strategic reserves, but the real question is what’s actually sitting in those warehouses... A few years back, it all came to light that everything had been pilfered and funneled straight into Agrokor, which was just devastating. I really, truly hope the idiots haven't pulled the same stunt this time around, because if they have, and things get desperate, there might actually be some people looking for a reason to see them face real justice at the end of a rope...

We’re actually producing more wheat than we could ever possibly need, but then again...

This is quite a disappointment... Looking back at everything from last year, back in 2021... And then we have the usual case of "discovering something that was already obvious to everyone else"...

“We’re importing wheat while sitting on a massive domestic surplus, and it makes you wonder... why exactly are Americans going to end up paying more for their bread?
To put it simply, American farmers actually produce far more wheat than we could ever consume domestically, yet we end up exporting most of it because we just don't have the local processing infrastructure to handle the sheer volume...
"We’ve finally broken through that million-ton wheat milestone after so many years, and now the Department of Agriculture is looking to pour investments directly into processing and expanding our local capacity, so we can keep as much of that harvest right here in America as possible," says Tugomir Majdak, a State Secretary at the Department of Agriculture...
Until we finally get those production facilities up and running, we're essentially stuck relying on imported wheat, which usually ends up being lower quality and costing us a whole lot more than it should....
The rising cost of bread is becoming an unavoidable reality for families across America, and honestly, it’s starting to feel like we’re caught in a perfect storm of global logistics and local supply chain hiccups... It seems that because the price of grain and essential ingredients is climbing on the international market, the loaves sitting on our grocery store shelves are getting more expensive by the day. We are seeing this ripple effect where even basic staples are hitting the budget harder than most people anticipated, especially with the way energy costs have been fluctuating lately... It really makes you wonder how much longer the average household can absorb these incremental hikes before it starts affecting everything else in the pantry...

It’s also worth noting that, from time to time, things can get a little murky around here, and you might run into some shady dealings that just don't sit right...
It really makes you wonder about how much grain used to disappear from the Midwest heartland... back when those massive shipments would just seem to vanish into thin air without anyone asking too many questions...
The recent reports coming out of the agricultural sector regarding the instability at companies like Agrokor have really hit home for anyone following our domestic food security, and frankly, it feels like we're seeing a pattern emerge that should make us all a bit more cautious about how much influence these massive conglomerates hold over our local supply chains... It’s one thing to talk about market fluctuations in abstract terms, but when you realize that a single entity can destabilize an entire region's economy, it becomes much more personal. I was reading through some analysis on how the Department of Agriculture might need to step in to provide more oversight, especially given the way these large players manage their debt and assets, and it just makes me wonder if our current regulatory framework is actually robust enough to handle a crisis of this magnitude... There seems to be a growing tension between the push for massive industrial consolidation and the need to protect the smaller, independent producers who are the actual backbone of the American heartland. If we don't find a way to balance these interests, we might find ourselves in a position where a few boardroom decisions in a skyscraper could leave grocery store shelves empty in small towns halfway across the country... It's a delicate dance between efficiency and resilience, and right now, it feels like we're leaning far too heavily on the former without considering the devastating cost of losing the latter...

No, the real blow hasn't even landed yet...

It feels like we’re watching history unfold right before our eyes... starting in 2023, the gates are finally opening for foreign investors to start snapping up our affordable farmland, and honestly, I can already see the stampede coming. It looks like we're about to see a massive influx of buyers, particularly from the Netherlands, who seem to have developed this incredibly "clever" little strategy to get their hands on our soil...
The latest reports regarding the recent developments at the Department of Agriculture have certainly caught my attention, especially given how much weight these decisions carry for our local producers... It seems like there’s a growing tension between the regulatory shifts coming out of Washington and the actual day-to-day realities faced by folks working the land in regions like the Midwest. You have to wonder if the policymakers truly grasp the ripple effects these changes will have on small-scale operations versus the massive conglomerates that seem to benefit from every new mandate... It feels like we’re watching a slow-motion collision between traditional farming values and a very modern, highly bureaucratic approach to food security, and I can't help but feel a bit uneasy about where this is all heading...
swiftjackal11 swiftjackal11 Regular
271 messages
joined May 2018
#5451 ·
bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

Sure, Russia is making bank right now, but this isn't sustainable long-term. Once you spread today's profits over the next decade, we'll probably end up footing the bill from our own paychecks just to make up the difference.
urbanotter urbanotter Regular
431 messages
joined Oct 2020
#5452 ·
Even though this isn't strictly on topic, I thought I should mention it

At 5:05 PM today, you can catch one of fifteen interviews where Oscar winner Oliver Stone sat down with Putin. It’s quite striking because they didn't shy away from any subject; there really wasn't anything off-limits during their conversation.

It'll be airing on Discovery Channel at 5:05 PM.
Melissa Rivera5 Melissa Rivera5 Regular
432 messages
joined Jun 2024
#5453 ·
urbanotter said:Even though this isn't strictly on topic, I thought I should mention it

At 5:05 PM today, you can catch one of fifteen interviews where Oscar winner Oliver Stone sat down with Putin. It’s quite striking because they didn't shy away from any subject; there really wasn't anything off-limits during their conversation.

It'll be airing on Discovery Channel at 5:05 PM.

I caught the whole thing. Putin kept saying Russia doesn't stand a chance against NATO, but honestly, it was pretty obvious they were planning to hit Ukraine no matter what happens.
Jonathan Martinez11 Jonathan Martinez11 Newcomer
7 messages
joined Jul 2022
#5454 ·
bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

I guess we don't really know exactly how much Russia is pulling in right now, but they're definitely making plenty since the European Union is pumping up its stockpiles way more than they did this time last year. Who feels the squeeze first? Not the wealthy, obviously, just the poor. And there's already shortages of medicines and certain food items—I know someone in Siberia who mentioned they've been smuggling meds through Mexico. Everything has become incredibly expensive over there too, and their standard of living is much lower than people in the European Union. They basically tell us we'll manage somehow, but I wonder what happens to us, especially those folks out in Siberia. Even they're getting nervous about the Chinese, because the Russians have no idea just how many Chinese people are moving into Siberia.
Melissa Rivera5 Melissa Rivera5 Regular
432 messages
joined Jun 2024
#5455 ·
There’s a massive difference between Russia as a state and its actual citizens. Just because the central government is raking it in—though honestly, I guess even that’s debatable if they're selling oil at $30 a barrel—and the oligarchs are getting rich, that doesn't mean anything for the regular people.
mellowdrifter80 mellowdrifter80 Member
19 messages
joined Jul 2018
#5456 ·
Everything is just wonderful, isn't it? On June 30th, the Russian Prime Minister signed off on a legislative proposal that would grant the Government the authority to implement "special economic measures," effectively forcing private companies to comply with government orders for "counter-terrorism operations" conducted outside of Russia. To make matters even more delightful, the proposal includes provisions for work performed "outside of standard business hours"—meaning nights, weekends, and holidays are now officially on the table. They’re justifying this sudden grab for control by citing the ongoing "special operation" conditions and the pressure from imposed sanctions.

The full text of the proposal in Russian
https://sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/155680-8#bh_note

News report
https://www.akm.ru/eng/news/the-cabi...field-of-econ/
darkdriver darkdriver Active Member
153 messages
joined Jun 2022
#5457 ·
bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

Honestly, I bet like 90%—maybe even more—of the crews looking at that PDF don't even care about the fuel prices. It could be anything, really... $10As far as they're concerned...
urbanotter urbanotter Regular
431 messages
joined Oct 2020
#5458 ·
Melissa Rivera5 said:I caught the whole thing. Putin kept saying Russia doesn't stand a chance against NATO, but honestly, it was pretty obvious they were planning to hit Ukraine no matter what happens.

It honestly feels like we weren't watching the same interviews.☕
urbanotter urbanotter Regular
431 messages
joined Oct 2020
#5459 ·
darkdriver said:Honestly, I bet like 90%—maybe even more—of the crews looking at that PDF don't even care about the fuel prices. It could be anything, really... $10As far as they're concerned...

I suppose they're all just cruising around on electric scooters instead.😁
urbanotter urbanotter Regular
431 messages
joined Oct 2020
#5460 ·
bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

Unless the federal government steps in with more intervention,

we really shouldn't forget that there is no such thing as a "free lunch."

The administration doesn't have a "money printer" like some people might think; they can only take from one pocket to pay another.

And as far as I know, they haven't quite mastered what the ancient alchemists spent centuries chasing—trying to turn lead into gold.🤔

p.s.

Or, following the old tradition, they could just go deeper into debt.

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