Sanctions on Russia

feralcanyon73 said:Is the dollar seriously still sitting at 250 rubles?

For exports and the budget to actually work, you'd want the rate sitting somewhere between 70 and 80 rubles per dollar.

Right now, it’s hit 66 rubles to the dollar—which basically means plugging the budget hole is taking priority over fighting inflation.

Noah Diaz said:What does a nation actually need to survive? Bananas, cocoa, and coffee?!!

Or is it perhaps more vital resources like energy, industrial capacity, weaponry, food, water, and so on?

And while we're on the subject of "chips"—what exactly has been going on over the last two years? Who is actually suffering from a chip shortage? 🤣

Russ.

mellowsurfer14 said:I’ve been reading that some of the smaller gas stations across the US are shutting down, leaving people stranded without diesel.

Oil prices have tanked; it hit $98 today. The last time crude was under $100 back in early April, fuel prices were $4.00 at the pumps. Now I can't even get by on $4.50?

It’s that old pattern where exchange prices climb and fuel follows, but when oil drops, they claim there isn't a direct link... 😁

One should also consider that ExxonMobil is seeing record profits this year. In the United Kingdom, they just announced a 25% windfall tax specifically targeting oil traders to recoup those massive gains.

Jack Hill2 said:Oil prices have tanked; it hit $98 today. The last time crude was under $100 back in early April, fuel prices were $4.00 at the pumps. Now I can't even get by on $4.50?

It’s that old pattern where exchange prices climb and fuel follows, but when oil drops, they claim there isn't a direct link... 😁

One should also consider that ExxonMobil is seeing record profits this year. In the United Kingdom, they just announced a 25% windfall tax specifically targeting oil traders to recoup those massive gains.

When prices spike, everything follows the Crude oil futures, but when it’s time for them to drop, they start trading based on whatever is happening in the "Mediterranean market."

hollowdriver13 said:When prices spike, everything follows the Crude oil futures, but when it’s time for them to drop, they start trading based on whatever is happening in the "Mediterranean market."

That isn’t even the whole story. Prices for all construction materials have cratered. For instance, iron dropped from $2,100 down to $1,300 over the last few months, and aluminum is following suit...

Where are all those promises from developers about housing becoming more affordable? They claimed prices were spiking because "rebar costs went up"...

Now that costs have actually fallen, they just stay quiet and keep the prices high. It's classic greed... taking advantage of everyone else...

What’s the deal with the refineries in America? Are they shutting down or getting back online?

Bryan Booth82 said:I’m backed into a corner here. I can't bring myself to say exactly what Putin wants to hear, even if it feels like there's no other way out. People want to act like nobody is at fault—as if there should be no sanctions and no consequences. But how can we just look the other way while Ukraine is being absolutely decimated? We're talking about ten million refugees fleeing for their lives because of this madness. How can anyone sit there and claim there's no accountability when the devastation is this absolute?
Let’s get together and start trading.

It’s just not working anymore. We are at war.

lp

You see, Stern (along with a few others) actually thinks that while we should have slapped all sorts of sanctions on Russia, we really shouldn't have touched the oil and gas...

He even mentioned that while the sanctions hit Russia, they hit us much harder. "The mistake was deciding to sanction Russia on things the entire world relies on. The idea was to punish them where it hurts most, but in reality, it's us who are feeling the pain," he remarked.

And don't even get me started on those darker possibilities...

"That oil has been flowing up until now. If Russia limits its exports, oil could vanish from the global market, leading to scenarios I wouldn't even want to contemplate. Just yesterday, I saw warnings that in such extreme circumstances, oil could spike to $380 per barrel. That's three times what it is today. It would essentially mean a total collapse and a catastrophe for the global economy," Stern warns.

brightheron64 said:You see, Stern (along with a few others) actually thinks that while we should have slapped all sorts of sanctions on Russia, we really shouldn't have touched the oil and gas...

He even mentioned that while the sanctions hit Russia, they hit us much harder. "The mistake was deciding to sanction Russia on things the entire world relies on. The idea was to punish them where it hurts most, but in reality, it's us who are feeling the pain," he remarked.

And don't even get me started on those darker possibilities...

"That oil has been flowing up until now. If Russia limits its exports, oil could vanish from the global market, leading to scenarios I wouldn't even want to contemplate. Just yesterday, I saw warnings that in such extreme circumstances, oil could spike to $380 per barrel. That's three times what it is today. It would essentially mean a total collapse and a catastrophe for the global economy," Stern warns.

So now he’s calling for $380 per barrel while Brent has actually tanked 15% in a single month—we're looking much closer to a bear market than any kind of sky-high price spike.

hollowdriver13 said:So now he’s calling for $380 per barrel while Brent has actually tanked 15% in a single month—we're looking much closer to a bear market than any kind of sky-high price spike.

🤷 Look, I don't work in the oil industry, yet they seem to constantly drag him in to act as some sort of expert commentator...

My world revolves around semiconductors, and we're actually doing quite well (though I can only imagine how things look to the Russians 😁).
The other day, I checked in with the ExxonMobil office to see if we could secure a larger shipment of hardware—maybe a hundred units or so—and they told me "we can get them to you in 150 to 180 days!!!" 😵

boldbison40 said:Honestly, all this talk about oil prices skyrocketing is just pure nonsense. If prices spike too high, demand naturally craters, eventually forcing everything back to its baseline levels. Sure, we might see a recession, but that’s nothing new in the grand scheme of things...

The OPEC nations will go to any lengths to prevent prices from hitting the stratosphere, because they’re the ones who stand to lose the most if demand takes a massive dive.

But I have to wonder, what kind of magic tricks could actually cause such a drastic drop in oil demand? 🤔 Road transport doesn't even account for half of global consumption. Even if we entertained the idea of a world without cars, how on earth could we imagine one without heavy-duty trucks or massive transit buses?...

Just as a side note, last year's projections suggested demand would climb by 5% while production only grew by 2% through 2026. But now, with wars and sanctions thrown into the mix... well, only the folks in the Middle East (and Russia) truly know what actual production numbers will look like...

Look, folks... this stuff is just unreadable and (for the most part) totally off-topic. Just stop it already. ☕

brightheron64 said:But I have to wonder, what kind of magic tricks could actually cause such a drastic drop in oil demand? 🤔 Road transport doesn't even account for half of global consumption. Even if we entertained the idea of a world without cars, how on earth could we imagine one without heavy-duty trucks or massive transit buses?...

Just as a side note, last year's projections suggested demand would climb by 5% while production only grew by 2% through 2026. But now, with wars and sanctions thrown into the mix... well, only the folks in the Middle East (and Russia) truly know what actual production numbers will look like...

The economy tanks. Trading slows down, freight movement drops, industrial consumption dries up...

Jack Hill2 said:That isn’t even the whole story. Prices for all construction materials have cratered. For instance, iron dropped from $2,100 down to $1,300 over the last few months, and aluminum is following suit...

Where are all those promises from developers about housing becoming more affordable? They claimed prices were spiking because "rebar costs went up"...

Now that costs have actually fallen, they just stay quiet and keep the prices high. It's classic greed... taking advantage of everyone else...

Corona and then Ukraine were merely convenient excuses to jack up prices... Once people stop buying at these inflated rates, these companies will be forced to adjust. Every single one of these suppliers and retailers is currently operating on the mindset of "as long as Mike keeps paying, we keep charging."

Jack Hill2 said:Oil prices have tanked; it hit $98 today. The last time crude was under $100 back in early April, fuel prices were $4.00 at the pumps. Now I can't even get by on $4.50?

It’s that old pattern where exchange prices climb and fuel follows, but when oil drops, they claim there isn't a direct link... 😁

One should also consider that ExxonMobil is seeing record profits this year. In the United Kingdom, they just announced a 25% windfall tax specifically targeting oil traders to recoup those massive gains.

I mean, look, you gotta realize that if you grab some oil today, you aren't exactly getting to pump that cheaper fuel tomorrow, right?

klingonac_worf said:math is hard 😁

So, if you drop something by 60% from value X, then bumping up value Y by 60% gets you back to the same spot?😁

Simple math—let's say X=100 and Y=20

X minus 60% = 40. Y plus 60% = 32

yeah, no.

Exactly. That same article mentions exports to China jumped from 4.1 billion cubic meters to 10.39.

During that same window, Russian gas exports to Europe hit 150 billion cubic meters via pipeline, plus another 16 billion of Russian LNG.

On top of that:



Source: Why Nord Stream 2 is not a redundant pipeline, European gas hub

They might aim to ramp up exports to China to $60 billion, but they first have to connect that pipeline directly to the main fields while maintaining that exact same flow rate. We're likely looking at somewhere around 2030 before that happens.

The max capacity for that pipeline (Alaska) sits at 38 billion cubic meters per year.

analogbear5 said:Exactly. That same article mentions exports to China jumped from 4.1 billion cubic meters to 10.39.

During that same window, Russian gas exports to Europe hit 150 billion cubic meters via pipeline, plus another 16 billion of Russian LNG.

On top of that:



Source: Why Nord Stream 2 is not a redundant pipeline, European gas hub

And keep in mind, Angela Merkel negotiated it so prices follow market rates. So, there aren't these 10, 20, or 30-year fixed-price contracts—it’s just whatever the market dictates, I guess...
She also agreed that Germany has to pay for the gas even if they don't want to take it, which honestly puts the current administration in a pretty terrible spot.

Meanwhile, the price agreed upon with China was somewhere around 350-380 USD/m3.

brightheron64 said:But I have to wonder, what kind of magic tricks could actually cause such a drastic drop in oil demand? 🤔 Road transport doesn't even account for half of global consumption. Even if we entertained the idea of a world without cars, how on earth could we imagine one without heavy-duty trucks or massive transit buses?...

Just as a side note, last year's projections suggested demand would climb by 5% while production only grew by 2% through 2026. But now, with wars and sanctions thrown into the mix... well, only the folks in the Middle East (and Russia) truly know what actual production numbers will look like...

I still remember the lockdowns—demand cratered and we saw spot prices go negative. You remember that?

analogbear5 said:The max capacity for that pipeline (Alaska) sits at 38 billion cubic meters per year.

My mistake!
That 60 billion figure actually combines the current Alaska project with the planned expansion phase two.
Plus, we won't even hit that agreed-upon 38 billion mark for the first stage until 2025.

Gerald Torres84 said:Corona and then Ukraine were merely convenient excuses to jack up prices... Once people stop buying at these inflated rates, these companies will be forced to adjust. Every single one of these suppliers and retailers is currently operating on the mindset of "as long as Mike keeps paying, we keep charging."

With how much "enthusiasm" they're showing by claiming this is for some greater good, it'd almost be a shame not to rip them off a little.