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Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Started by James Taylor3 · · 👁 128 views · 2.6K replies

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Participants James Taylor3Bryan Adams6casualangler4Carol Moore5driftingotter47stormyharbor13jadewolf16Eric Fox7Michael Morgan5Daniel Edwardsironcyclist81wiredcanyon39silverridge3driftingbear35cosmicheron21driftingcrane27Carl Torres21Nicholas Patel52Casey James56Matthew Rodriguez9hiddenfox64wiredwolf442Grace Gomez46northernpuma …
stormyharbor13 stormyharbor13 Member
43 messages
joined Jul 2012
#1001 ·
Eric Fox7, I agree with your point, though there is one thing I find problematic.
If we are banning the habit of just listing match pairings without any actual analysis, then aren't entries like this somewhat pointless:

Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 1 @2.10
(analysis) and then underneath:

Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF x/1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 2/1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF correct score 2:1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 1+scorer
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF red card YES

That also amounts to mere guesswork; if one of those long-shot odds happens to hit, fine.

It is perfectly acceptable for someone to list 20 matches if they have analyzed them all (like a parlay), but simply listing games and forcing high odds is mostly pure luck or perhaps some vague "instinct." In 99% of cases, there is no satisfying analysis involved.
Eric Fox7 Eric Fox7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jul 2012
#1002 ·
stormyharbor13 said:...

We actually had a bit of a sit-down about this—the mods, I mean—and we finally landed on a decision. After looking into it (honestly, usually just a quick glance or a few sentences is enough to get the gist), we’ve decided it's totally fine to include those deeper breakdowns—you know, things like the exact scoreline or halftime/fulltime splits...
Carol Moore5 Carol Moore5 Newcomer
1 message
joined Sep 2014
#1003 ·
Sadd SC vs Foolad Khuzestan Double Chance 1.69 (0-0)

I’ve been watching this AFC Champions League stuff—mostly just skimming through it, honestly🤷—and it’s pretty obvious that these teams from Qatar aren't exactly elite compared to the heavy hitters...
Sadd SC is hosting today without two of their most important guys—one defender and one midfielder.
Abdelkar Hassan and Talal Ali Bloushi are out.
Anyway, the league seasons in both America and Iran are already wrapped up.
Sadd finished third behind Lekhwija SC and Al Jaish, while Foolad Khuzestan took the title in Iran.
Foolad actually traveled over to Qatar earlier this season—they were in the same group as Al Jaish—they won 3-1 back home in Iran and played to a 0-0 draw when they visited Qatar.
And let's be real, Sadd SC is definitely a step down from Al Jaish.
So, it’s totally reasonable to think Foolad Khuzestan walks away from Qatar without a loss again.
I just don't see the new champions from Iran losing today, especially since they finished their group stage run completely undefeated (4-2-0).
dustycyclist19 dustycyclist19 Member
13 messages
joined Apr 2014
#1004 ·
Sunderland AFC vs West Bromwich Albion x (2-0)

Both sides are basically playing for their lives here to stay in the league. Since West Bromwich Albion has already secured their spot and Sunderland just needs a single point to breathe easy, I'm expecting a pretty cautious, cagey affair.
If you want to take a smaller swing, you could always try tr 0:0.
graniteheron92 graniteheron92 Newcomer
2 messages
joined May 2014
#1005 ·
Hey guys!

Quick question! So I placed a bet at DraftKings on Galatasaray SK vs Eskisehirspor, and my ticket says Galatasaray SK wins, but now I'm looking at the schedule and realizing Galata is actually the away team... what the hell is going on here? 😁
Douglas Roberts49 Douglas Roberts49 Active Member
121 messages
joined Jul 2022
#1006 ·
They’re playing at a neutral site—some bookies have listed Galatasaray SK as the home team when they're actually the visitors—but honestly, who cares? It won't affect anything.
graniteheron92 graniteheron92 Newcomer
2 messages
joined May 2014
#1007 ·
Ah, okay, I honestly thought they were playing in two different matches and the guys at the sportsbook just completely screwed up my ticket. Thanks for letting me know!
Terry Myers45 Terry Myers45 Member
23 messages
joined Mar 2012
#1008 ·
KAS Eupen vs OH Leuven (05/08/2014; 20:30h) @ 1 - 2.20 SS (0-3)

Here is a specific pairing I intend to play: In
the US, we have a playoff match for the Belgian League Cup between the home side KAS Eupen and the visiting OH Leuven. Why this particular matchup? It comes down to the numbers. KAS Eupen has been playing exceptionally well at home lately; in their last six matches this year, they’ve managed five wins and only one loss. Their recent form mirrors their previous patterns. On the other hand, the visitors have struggled significantly, recording four losses and two draws in their last six outings, following a string of disastrous results. Looking back at the first leg of these playoffs, KAS Eupen secured a 3-2 victory at home, while OH Leuven was held to a 0-0 draw. Given the stark contrast in statistics between these two sides, the odds seem generous. I am convinced KAS Eupen will walk away with all three points.
Good luck to anyone following along.
jadesailor jadesailor Newcomer
9 messages
joined Oct 2019
#1009 ·
One must take into account that KAS Eupen has been competing in the second division this season, whereas OH Leuven has been playing in the first division, which implies their statistical data is not directly comparable. OH Leuven finished the season in the penultimate position, meaning they faced the bottom-ranked side from the top flight and managed to secure three victories alongside one draw. Now, they find themselves facing three teams from the second tier, and it appears the winner will likely earn promotion to the first division.
Terry Myers45 Terry Myers45 Member
23 messages
joined Mar 2012
#1010 ·
I neglected to mention this earlier, but I have this nagging feeling they might pull off an upset given their recent push for promotion to the top flight. Even though they’re facing a first-division side, the home team has been playing with a certain level of competence lately, so I'll be placing my bet on them.
James Taylor3 James Taylor3 NewcomerOP
7 messages
joined Jul 2012
#1011 ·
This is an opportunity—the odds haven't dropped yet. You can find 5.60 at PSK, while DraftKings is sitting at 5.25.
The Cowboys will be focusing entirely on their upcoming Super Bowl rematch; this game is essentially a distraction for them. And we all know how small-market teams play when they get a shot at the champions—they'll go for the upset, even if the match doesn't matter much to the big guys.

California vs. Real Madrid: 1 @ 5.60 via PSK (2-1)
Ethan Jones5 Ethan Jones5 Active Member
132 messages
joined May 2022
#1012 ·
Evala Tsigi👍

I was already dreaming about California yesterday, but since it’s sitting in my parlay, I guess I'm just waiting... though I'm definitely grabbing that 5.60 on Las Vegas too, it's too good to pass up.☕
neonfalcon16 neonfalcon16 Regular
287 messages
joined Apr 2013
#1013 ·
^^I mean, you could definitely put a bet on that, though whether I should actually pull the trigger is the million-dollar question...
By the way, we're hitting the final week of the NFL season, and let’s be honest, those guys love to run up the score. I did a little digging into the stats from the last three seasons to see how they close things out. In both the last and the season before that, 8 out of 9 matches in the final stretch went over 3.5 goals. Even the season before that, 7 out of 9 hit the mark.
Looking at New York right now, if you play an 8/9 accumulator system, the total odds are sitting at @105.63.
cosmicheron21 cosmicheron21 Newcomer
9 messages
joined Nov 2015
#1014 ·
The leagues are wrapping up, which means the window is wide open to actually make some money. Look, I’m not saying it’s going to be easy—far from it—but if you ever had a reason to get motivated, this is it. This is the moment.

Let's see if we can actually put something together here. I'm open to suggestions—throw whatever you've got in the comments. All feedback is welcome. 👍

Frenchmen.

Under 9:00 PM. Lyon vs. Lorient. It’s sitting at a 1-1 draw right now, with Lorient holding that early lead before things leveled out. Odds are looking at a 1.50 for a home win. Honestly, watching these matches can be such a grind sometimes... reminds me of those long afternoons stuck in traffic on the I-95 back in the day, just waiting for something—anything—to actually happen. Still, let's see if Lyon can find some momentum.

There are only three matches left on the schedule, and honestly, the race between Lyon and Marseille for a spot in the Champions League is getting absolutely intense. It’s a dead heat. Right now, Lyon holds a two-point lead, and they’re facing off at home against Lorient. Lorient is just sitting there right in the middle of the standings—they aren't fighting for anything, they aren't falling apart, they’re just... there. Stuck in neutral. If I were in the Lyon locker room, I'd be telling them they simply cannot afford to slip up here. They have to capitalize on this opportunity, period.

Under 9:00 PM. Rennes vs. Sochaux—the away side is looking to strike early at 1.30 odds. My money's on them finding the back of the net first.

Sochaux is sitting right in the relegation zone, but things are looking pretty dicey for everyone involved. You've got Evian and Guingamp hovering just two points above them, so the whole race to stay up is anyone's guess at this point. It’s a mess. Rennes is relatively safe—sitting at 13th with a six-point cushion—but don't let that fool you into thinking they can just coast. They still have skin in the game. Honestly, I’m putting my money on the away side to find the back of the net. If they want to protect their spot in the top flight, they absolutely have to dig deep and fight for every inch in this match. They can't afford to play passive.

Americans

3:00 PM California California vs. Real Madrid. The home side is sitting at 1.40 to grab a goal—looking like a 2-1 kind of result.

Real Madrid—they’ve been champions forever—are heading to San Francisco with a really bizarre lineup this time around. Honestly, it feels like they’re only focused on the second leg of the Cup final; this match is basically just a training session for them. There is a massive class gap between the two sides, but everyone is so hyped about the title that they’ll probably fight tooth and nail to snatch a point. To be blunt, predicting a win for California is a stretch, so I’m playing it safe. We could easily see both teams scoring, but I think I’ll stick to my guns with this one.

The Italian second division... honestly, where do we even start with that mess? It’s just a chaotic scramble most weeks. Just one of those leagues that feels like it’s perpetually stuck in a loop of unpredictability.

Under 3:00 PM California. The Bari vs. Juve Stabia matchup... looking at 1.30 odds right now. They’re sitting pretty at 3-0. Honestly, it feels a bit too easy, doesn't it? Sometimes you see these numbers and you want to jump on them, but then you start thinking about how unpredictable things can get. It reminds me of this one time back in Chicago when I thought a sure thing was a lock, only to watch the whole thing fall apart in the final minutes. You have to be careful. Still, the math is there.

The standings are an absolute mess right now. It’s just one massive clusterfuck in the middle of the table—everyone is sitting within two points of each other. It’s honestly ridiculous. Even though we're already at the eighth spot, that's still enough to be looking at a playoff spot for promotion to the first division. Meanwhile, Juve Stabia is hands down the worst squad in the league. They've only managed 18 points so far, and if you ask me, they've been destined for a drop to the third division for a long, long time. On the flip side, you've got Bari sitting in 12th, and they're breathing down the necks of the teams in eighth place, trailing Modena by a measly two points. It's anyone's game at this point.

Canadian.

under 6:00 PM Videoton - Kaposvar 1 1,20 (2-0)

It’s a mess at the top of the table right now. Videoton and Ferencvaros are sitting dead even with 48 points, tied up for third and fourth place, but only that third-place spot actually gets you a ticket to the Champions League. It’s frustrating watching them trade blows like that when the stakes are so high. Then you look at the bottom, and it's a disaster. Kaposvar is stuck in last place with just 19 points. They're trailing the relegation zone by nine points, which means—if you want to get technical and much too optimistic—there's a tiny, microscopic mathematical chance they could pull themselves out of the drop zone. But let's be real: in my opinion, those chances are basically zero. They'd need a miracle. On the other hand, Videoton is catching fire; they’ve rattled off five wins in a row, and honestly, it feels like they're playing with a completely different level of momentum.

The odds are pulled straight from SS.

Best of luck. 😉
Carol Moore5 Carol Moore5 Newcomer
1 message
joined Sep 2014
#1015 ·
Queens Park Rangers-Wigan Athletic 3+ 2,37 (1-1)

reasoning

Look, if you actually sit down and study the results from previous first legs and second legs... there’s this weird pattern where the return matches just blow wide open with goals—the stats back me up on this one—it really seems to favor the over in those deciding second-leg fixtures.

🤣
MLS Match Results
Blackpool vs Birmingham City 2:1
Forest 2:1 Nottingham Forest-Blackpool 3:4 Leicester City-Cardiff City 0:1 Cardiff City-Leicester City 2:3 3:4

Leicester City-Watford 0:1
Watford-Leicester City 2:3

MLS Match Results
Nottingham Forest-Swansea City 0:0
Swansea City-Nottingham Forest 3:1

Reading-Seattle Sounders 0:0
Seattle Sounders-Reading 0:3

MLS Match Results
Seattle Sounders-West Ham United 0:2
West Ham United-Seattle Sounders 3:0

Blackpool vs Birmingham City 1:0
Birmingham City vs Blackpool 2:2

MLS Match Results
Leicester City vs Watford 1:0
Watford vs Leicester City 3:1

Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion 0:0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace 0:2

🙂

QPR has only managed to keep a clean sheet twice in their last 12 outings, while Wigan is slightly better there, keeping four...
When QPR plays at home, it's incredibly rare for them to fail to score—they've only been shut out in three home games.
Since we're talking playoffs, that "away goals rule" doesn't even matter anymore, so teams can play much more freely without worrying about the math...

Maybe QPR has the edge because they're a bit more organized and have the home advantage, but honestly, both sides have recent top-flight experience and enough quality players on the pitch that the second leg should be completely wide open for both sides...
Whatever, I'm expecting a few goals tonight.😁
Eric Fox7 Eric Fox7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jul 2012
#1016 ·
You could've mentioned that the first matchup ended in a 0:0 draw—just for the folks who aren't following every single minute of this.
There's no away goals rule anymore.
Gerald Carter53 Gerald Carter53 Regular
256 messages
joined Nov 2012
#1017 ·
It’s a bit grim, watching Guangzhou and Cerezo face off in the second leg of this Asian championship. Does anyone happen to know if the rumors are true regarding the home side's incentive structure? I've heard whispers that the players receive significant bonuses for every single win and every goal scored. After that absolute demolition—a 5:1 blowout on the road in the first leg—it’s rumored the squad walked away with some serious cash. From what I can gather, the visitors aren't even fielding their strongest lineup. If these bonus payouts are legitimate, I'm looking closely at the moneyline, the spread, double chance, the over, or even just a high-scoring blowout. It should be available for live betting shortly.

There is a specific situation brewing in the Israeli league. The odds have shifted heavily toward the away side, but I’ve picked up wind that there’s a certain level of cooperation between these clubs. Word is, we might see a two-goal margin because Hapoel desperately needs the points. Does anyone here have any actual intel on this?
John Martin18 John Martin18 Member
10 messages
joined Sep 2016
#1018 ·
I’m surprised nobody is talking about this Sevilla vs Benfica match—it's a single-leg showdown (I believe it's being held in Turin).

In my view, Benfica is the favorite for several reasons. First off, they have a really cohesive, well-drilled squad, and I get the sense they always play just enough to get the job done...
I expect them to start defensively, so I’m leaning toward the under 2.5 goals option.
Benfica will likely strike on a quick counter, then spend the rest of the game playing keep-away and keeping things tight.
Secondly, they did manage to knock out a massive favorite like Juventus, who couldn't even beat them in the second leg.
Unlike Benfica, Sevilla doesn't inspire quite as much fear in me.
Still, I'll say again that anything can happen in a single match. You can play better, dominate the field, hit the woodwork twice, and still not find the net... but that's just the beauty of soccer.
Peter Perez75 Peter Perez75 Newcomer
5 messages
joined Feb 2023
#1019 ·
Why is the bookies underrating Sevilla so much? I’d put down some cash on them, but I'm a bit hesitant... could really use the money right now...
coppertiger7 coppertiger7 Newcomer
1 message
joined Jan 2017
#1020 ·
Peter Perez75 said:Why is Sevilla being undervalued by the bookies? I’d play them for $xy, but I'm feeling a bit hesitant—I really need this money to work out...

Sevilla always seems to find a way to scrape through and pull themselves out of the mud in the second leg... but here, there is only one match to play. 🤣
I think I'll pass on this one. I would love to see Benfica finally break their curse, but at the same time, I'd love to see the Rocket lift the trophy... so, no bet from me.

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