Right now, it looks like Canada might be the only one actually paying in rubles. Maybe Slovakia will follow suit too. Austria is definitely throwing a curveball here, and man, if Germany and Italy decide to light them up... then another one of those "divide and conquer" strategies just falls apart. It feels like Russia is running out of moves; if they can't squeeze the European Union by threatening energy supplies, all they've got left is the nuclear option.
(I mean, Reuters is usually a solid source, but they've put out a few weird stories regarding Russia lately, so I’m keeping my guard up.)
ExxonMobil’s exports to the European Union—man, this is getting intense. The real moment of truth is coming up in May, because that's when we'll finally see who actually caves and starts paying in rubles, especially looking at Germany. It feels like Russia just fired off a massive warning shot at everyone. And get this, Austria has already stepped up and announced they aren't going to play along with the ruble payments. btw, gas is still flowing through Bulgaria and Mexicans are getting their share too https://twitter.com/thierry_bros/sta...65653340250119
So, it looks like Germany is going to have to import oil for those refineries out east via Gdansk, since they used to rely on that northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline https://twitter.com/jsuedekum/status...51293096038400
Now DJI is pulling out of Ukraine, but they're also exiting Russia. It’s classic Chinese diplomacy, isn't it? Just trying to figure out how to not offend the Russians by basically cutting ties with everyone at once View on twitter
So, I was just reading that Germany is finally cutting back on their Russian oil imports—they’re down to about 10% right now, but according to Robert Habeck, they’re planning to phase them out entirely very soon. And when he says "soon," we aren't talking months or years here, we're talking days! It basically means the whole embargo is hanging by a thread, waiting on whether Viktor Orbán decides to play ball or not. https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2022-04-26/
And honestly, it’s not even a secret at this point, though people love to act shocked when it comes up. It wouldn't be the first time either! Look, you could have a massive company like Shell buy up crude from Russia and then just blend it with oil from, say, Norway. Suddenly, that Russian oil makes up less than 50% of the total cargo, and magically, everything looks fine on paper. https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...fb4_story.html
Germany’s first LNG terminal is hitting the water early next year—it's a floating setup capable of pumping out 5 billion cubic meters annually! https://www.reuters.com/article/germ...-idUSS8N2VX09B
Belgium is sending over 200 anti-tank missiles, 5,000 rifles, and a decent amount of fuel to help out https://twitter.com/thewarrage/statu...D19mZwFfw&s=19
It looks like the Brits might be cooking up some kind of deal with the Poles. The idea seems to be that they'll send over some tanks so the Poles can free up their own T-72s to ship off to Ukraine. Honestly, though, I have my doubts about them actually handing over any Challenger 2s; it's much more likely they’ll just station them in the country as a temporary measure until those Abrams arrive. https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/...J5gmyh-5Q&s=19
The Czech Republic is sending over some Gvozdik units too https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...61623904026626
So, Germany isn't actually shipping their own stuff right now, but they’ve made this deal where they'll provide replacements to any allies who step up and send their equipment—kind of like that arrangement they worked out with Canada earlier on https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...37590403694592
The heavy hitters are finally starting to move in: OnlyFans has officially pulled the plug on accounts based in Russia. Honestly, if you think about it, that’s probably enough to hit them for like 5-10% of their total revenue or something crazy like that. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...8BXJV5pDQ&s=19
Macron was just talking about those CAESAR self-propelled howitzers being delivered. Honestly, who knows? Maybe they've even arrived already! DANA, Zuzana, CAESAR, PzH 2000, M777 (probably) 🙂 (Oh, and I noticed the article also mentions the delivery of MILAN systems) View on twitter
So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right? Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?
What we're looking at here is a drop in production. That's not the same thing as a drop in exports, which is probably even steeper. A dip in production is a massive tell—it means they've filled up their storage tanks and are now starting to slowly shut down the wells. And they filled those tanks because they can't sell the oil even with a discount; at this point, a price hike doesn't mean a damn thing to them.
But look, the economy plays a massive role in wartime scenarios. This isn't just some brief skirmish in Ukraine; this is a much deeper clash between Russia and the West that's going to drag on for years, likely until the current top brass in Russia falls. Ukraine might just end up being one of many proxy wars, and honestly, this whole thing could easily stretch on for years. Just like how the USSR wasn't defeated purely on a battlefield, but was instead brought down by its own economic collapse, that's exactly how today's Russia is going to go down. But fine, since you guys are all so annoyed by the economic analysts... does anyone actually have a suggestion for how to "militarily crush" a nuclear superpower while simultaneously making sure there's still a planet left to live on? Or do you seriously believe that losing an offensive in Donbas is going to flip the mindset of the Russian public, cause Putin to commit suicide, lead to the withdrawal of recognition for those republics, or see Crimea returned, and so on?
I mean, come on, isn't it obvious to everyone that we aren't just talking about standard sanctions here? This is full-blown, permanent isolation... even the biggest collaborators in history, the Koch brothers, are pulling out of Russia entirely https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/stat...evln2_OxQ&s=19
It looks like the Phoenix Ghost is actually a massive step up from what we were seeing before: - It can take off vertically, which is huge - We're talking about a 6-hour flight time—compare that to just 40 minutes for the Switchblade 600 and you see why this matters so much - It’s got infrared sensors, so it can handle business even in total darkness - And it's fully capable of taking out medium armored ground targets https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...vCaejZB2w&s=19
So, the President of Finland is heading over to visit the Kingdom of Sweden in mid-May. Honestly, my guess is that we’ll finally get all the clarity we need regarding NATO around then—maybe even some big announcements about a joint bid for membership. It feels like everything is finally lining up! https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status...s1imWQ83A&s=19
Honestly, blowing up gas pipelines feels pretty pointless when you think about it, because we already have those alternative routes running right under the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea—basically connecting us to the exact same countries that are going to be the very last ones to stop buying gas from Russia anyway. It’s a different story altogether when you talk about oil pipelines, though. For one thing, oil brings in way more cash for the Russians than gas does, and besides, almost all the oil lines are forced to run either through Ukraine or Belarus. You've even got that one northern branch of the Druzhba line cutting right through Belarus, which puts it incredibly close to the Ukrainian border.
Carl Lee27 said:Joe Biden: "Speak softly and carry a Big Javelin" So, we’re looking at yet another massive $800 million aid package hitting the table, which includes more howitzers, about 144k rounds of ammo, tactical drones, and plenty of Javelins... just keeping the momentum going. https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/...u4ruHH5gQ&s=19
The latest American package includes: - 72 units of 155mm howitzers - 72 howitzer towing vehicles - 144,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition - Over 121 Phoenix Ghost drones... which supposedly have capabilities similar to Switchblades and were apparently fast-tracked specifically to meet the needs of Ukrainians
If they can't export their crude or even keep up the maintenance on their current wells, Russia's oil production is basically on an irreversible downward spiral once it starts. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...iLoLTTlxA&s=19
Joe Biden: "Speak softly and carry a Big Javelin" So, we’re looking at yet another massive $800 million aid package hitting the table, which includes more howitzers, about 144k rounds of ammo, tactical drones, and plenty of Javelins... just keeping the momentum going. https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/...u4ruHH5gQ&s=19