Posts by hollowdriver13

Carol Johnson21 said:It’s been a while since I’ve checked in here, and honestly, I barely recognized this place once I started seeing all these pro-Russian usernames popping up. 😬
Hope everyone is doing well!

I have a question for the group. I noticed that on CNN, whenever there's even a tiny bit of news about Ukrainian progress, they immediately bring on some military analyst to warn us about the lines in the Donbas and the potential for a Russian breakthrough. What exactly is going on over there?

Glory to Ukraine!

At a pace of maybe five meters a day and one village every three months, they might have a shot at reaching Bakhmut by the start of the 22nd century.

Anyway... it's weird how nobody's even mentioning that sellout mayor from Izyum. He basically just sat on his hands when it came to the UA defense, and that lack of backbone is exactly what let the city fall in the first place...

A Ukrainian MiG-29 just dropped a bomb on the Russians in the Kherson Region.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...67316246642689

Seriously though, what is the air defense even doing?

Andrew Miller102 said:They aren't retreating, and I’m not just talking about the territory they recently abandoned. I’ll say it again: you really need to look at where the second largest city in Ukraine is actually located.☕

Not quite the opposite; if you're planning on waging war without any constraints, that’s exactly how it’s done.I highly doubt you've actually forgotten about World War II or the sheer scale of what unfolded across the territories of Russia and Ukraine.

It’s the same old story: Putin can't even manage his own business, so he acts like he's Iron Man just to save face.😵Considering the kind of people he keeps in his inner circle—both within the military and the political establishment—you could arguably call him moderate, if that’s even the right word for it.

If Russia decides to declare an official state of war, we’re looking at a full-scale escalation, and then we'll just have to see how the dust settles.☕

Right now, they aren't even fighting; they're basically just playing airsoft.

Pro-Russian trolls online be like:

"They're only using 10% of their strength; just wait until they hit them with everything they've got."

"Reinforcements are heading toward Cleveland"....

"The Ukrainian forces walked right into a trap; now there's a counteroffensive moving toward Baltimore to wipe out the trenches."

Russian Ministry:
"We are withdrawing from the Kharkiv Region."

Cope harder. ☕

Drew Booth60 said:I honestly think they have their best shot right now, though it's still a massive gamble—especially if the USA actually steps in. I mean, the USA has the military muscle to stop the takeover of Taiwan, regardless of how strong the Chinese military is or their home-field advantage.

Even if there are some pretty terrible losses, if China pulls off taking Taiwan, they come out of the conflict even stronger than before—which would be a massive blow to American influence in the Pacific. On the flip side, a defeat would be a disaster for both the Party and the nation. That's why I lean more towards thinking there won't be any actual military action; the risk is just too high. Anything short of fully conquering Taiwan would count as a loss, and if they don't win, what's the point? Sinking half the American Navy and Air Force would just end up being a strategic failure and a catastrophe all over again.

Russia is right on the edge of facing that same scenario in Ukraine, except here there wasn't even a need for the USA to get directly involved—a proxy war was enough. From what you can see from the air now, the Americans could absolutely dismantle the Russians. Crimea and Syria didn't really show the true state of the Russian military, which has been hollowed out by corruption and crime.

The US actually admits through their own wargaming that defending Taiwan would cost them at least one carrier strike group, maybe even two, plus a third of the US Air Force. But once that's done, China would be looking at a level of chaos even worse than what the Russians are dealing with.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Europe actually needs Ukrainian heavy industry. Ukraine has this labor-intensive heavy sector that doesn't pack much high-end value but requires massive amounts of manpower. Meanwhile, Western nations lean on capital-intensive industries loaded with robotics and automation to churn out high-margin products.

Honestly, you can't sleep on their intelligence; they definitely know what they're doing. Take General Electric, for example—they're one of the biggest jet engine players out there, and even some Chinese companies are still struggling to catch up, sometimes even relying on Russian tech. That’s actually why there was such a push to try and buy out those major manufacturers from Ukraine a few years back.

Then you've got the Morozov technical Bureau and all those connected plants over in Chicago and so on.

The real issue for Ukrainians is just the corruption and the constant struggle with liquidity. If you look past that, they’ve always been a technically advanced nation; while half the North America was still catching up, these guys were already busy assembling tractors.

It’s funny how people go from calling for a total purge of Ukrainians because they're supposedly "dangerous Western Nazis," to suddenly pivoting to those super cheesy, "remember when we were all best friends?" vibes. Now they're acting like the good old days—when everyone was just singing songs together in both languages and holding hands—were somehow the peak of existence.

Andrew Miller102 said:Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

And what does changing that actually accomplish? A general mobilization?
Like, what about the gear? Food, body armor, helmets, transport, logistics—is that all just going to manifest out of thin air?
They can barely manage to properly equip the "professional" military currently in Ukraine, so how are they going to successfully mobilize the entire nation?
I mean, sure, they could try it using that old Soviet approach from WW2: just hand someone a Kalashnikov, throw them onto the front lines, and hope for the best while they're getting hammered by heavy machine guns. You just have to pray the West runs out of ammo before the Russians run out of people to draft.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Looks like Ural crude is sitting at $69 right now 🍿

analogbear5 said:They're already laying the groundwork to spin the losses—claiming it wasn't the Ukrainians who beat them, but the Americans.

As soon as the front line starts crumbling, everyone jumps straight to these wild delusions about how NATO special forces are secretly operating in Ukraine, supposedly just "on vacation" or something. 🙏🙏

Joshua Myers432 said:Two degrees colder, yet three times the cost. And what happens to the industrial sector? Some nations in Europe actually have a manufacturing base; they didn't build their entire economies around flipping burgers and catering to tourists.

I guess we'll just install methane digesters on all the cattle ranches—great for the environment, and even better for the gas business. 😬

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/sta...66376799444992



A new poll just dropped out of Germany, and it shows that 70% of the population still backs sending aid to Ukraine and keeping those sanctions on Russia alive—even with energy prices hitting the roof.

Just wanted to drop this here for all the pro-Russia folks who were busy complaining a few days ago about how Western support for Ukraine was supposedly crumbling.

It seems like Putin doesn't quite get that the West isn't some soft target like the propaganda from China and Russia tries to make us look. This invasion actually hit people right in the feels, and when that happens, people are willing to endure way more than you'd think.

Looks like it's gonna be raining bullets through the windows again... definitely the most dangerous thing ever built.

analogbear5 said:Humanity also came up with the idea that "beauty is in the eye of the beholder." Claiming that truth is also in the eye of the beholder is just a fast track to total nihilism—it sounds like something someone says when they've completely lost any sense of meaning in their lives.

👍

I’m 100% with you on that first part being true, but that second bit? Yeah, that’s pretty much rock bottom.

William Anderson5 said:Once again, you're demonstrating a fundamental lack of historical context, which makes it easy for Putin to sell you his Napoleon spin. You conveniently left out the fact that 13 and 7 years prior to those dates, Russian forces were pushing toward Paris during the Second and Third Coalitions, only to be halted in Switzerland and Austria. What exactly were Suvorov and Kutuzov doing with the Russian army in Italy and Austria? Taking a sightseeing tour, or were they actually on the march to Paris?...

Honestly, it’s the exact same vibe as the Russian spin claiming they’re all about peace while only Americans go around fighting globally—as if nothing has happened since 1991.

The Georgian Civil War
The Abkhazian War
The Transnistria conflict
The South Ossetia Tajik conflict
The Tajikistani Civil War
The First Chechen War
The Dagestan war
The Second Chechen War
The Russo-Georgian War
The Syrian war
The Central African Republic war
The Libyan war
The war in Ukraine.

The only real difference is that their economy and military are kind of a mess; otherwise, they’d probably be fighting way more than the Americans if they actually had the juice.

Joshua Myers432 said:True, and that's exactly what Putin says. Here they are again, knocking on our borders just like they did a century ago.🤣

Truth is in the eye of the beholder.

Honestly, that's one of the worst little phrases humanity ever cooked up.

To some people, it might sound deep or wise, but it couldn't be further from the reality of things. If "truth" was just whatever any single one of us perceived to be true, then truth wouldn't actually exist as a concept. Truth only exists because it stands in direct opposition to what is false. Think about it: if there were no lies, if everything were just inherently true, the whole distinction falls apart. You wouldn't have the contrast between good and evil, light and dark, or right and wrong. There would be nothing to define a "true" path. You wouldn't even need a preacher to preach or a teacher to teach.

So, I think all the ignorance we see in the world stems from this massive misunderstanding—we forget that our perceptions are basically just a gamble. We see something, we believe it, and then we fall in love with our own interpretation of it. Most of the time, we don't even realize we're interpreting anything; we just assume it’s objective reality.

Nathan Evans78 said:I mean, what’s the issue with comparing the economies of the "collective West" and the Russian Federation while they're locked in this conflict? It seems pretty obvious to everyone that Russia is headed for an economic meltdown, but honestly, no kidding, Sherlock. We’re already sitting here tallying up the losses on the Western side—losses that are already hitting hundreds of billions of Euros—and debating how we're even going to weather the storm. ☕

Look, what I'm telling you is that the United Kingdom's issues were already there before the war started. bluemason3 just avoided dealing with them because it was easier to pretend they didn't exist. All this conflict really did was shrink their breathing room. It cut off those extra few years they were using to dodge massive internal problems and basically forced them to face the music sooner rather than later.

Nathan Evans78 said:Liz Truss has put together a bailout package totaling nearly $220 billion. 🙏🙏

The US has its own set of headaches stemming from recent economic shifts and COVID-19 (not to mention Medicare was already struggling big time way before all this, so they've been dealing with these issues for ages), which are finally catching up to them now. Honestly, even without this war, they would have hit a wall eventually. The US had a laughably tiny share of Russian gas and oil in its total consumption (think North Sea imports) compared to mainland Europe, so trying to pin their domestic struggles on sanctions against Russia doesn't really make much sense.

bluemason3 said:How much were they pumping out before the sanctions kicked in? Maybe 100-200 units a year, right?

Apparently, all those high-tech weapons they have lack the production capacity needed to keep up with current combat maintenance. Plus, they supposedly struggle with scaling up or repurposing lines quickly enough.

The assembly line capacity should be sitting around 200 tanks per year. But, thanks to that legendary Russian corruption and all the headaches getting their hands on high-end Western tech (even though sanctions weren't really respected—I mean, clearly nobody was tracking who was actually buying what if you see footage of Raytheon thermal cameras from post-2014 being used in tanks that technically shouldn't have had them), they’ve only managed to push out about 120-140 units annually.

And keep in mind, those numbers include their export capacity, not just what they need for themselves. (Which would be roughly 90 tanks a year for export).

https://www.defensenews.com/land/201...r-t-90s-tanks/

View on twitter

So, Russia just announced they're building two new plants specifically to repair their armored divisions. They're already a few months behind schedule, and honestly, even if they actually manage to get them up and running... well, we'll see.

Now, if you want to be a total cynic, you could argue that all those claims about General Dynamics finishing up T-90s—you know, the ones they used to keep hidden under tarps around the factory grounds—were nothing more than pure propaganda. But then again, there's the other side of the coin: the reality that sanctions have seriously choked their production lines. Plus, you've got those satellite images and the breakdowns from Western military experts basically confirming what we suspected—that most of those "reserve" tank stocks sitting in military depots (which is really just a fancy way of saying scrap metal graveyards) are shot. Like, over 60% of them are probably beyond any hope of being fixed.

Just my two cents... 🕺