Posts by neondriver5

You might end up with zero percent returns, but hey, you get a decorative pine tree and an extra layer of insurance for all the passengers and the cockroaches in the trunk

Which one of these hits closest to home for you?

A) lazy
B) a total slacker
C) terrified of hard work
D) the work isn't going anywhere, so why rush?

Denial is usually just the starting point.
Do you ever get that feeling like the whole world is out to get you?
Are you an animal lover?
Was your mother a good person?

Just say what's on your mind. This thread exists specifically for those kinds of issues.

Look, we’re talking about less than half a Dollar for a single gram. It’s practically pocket change.
It doesn't matter if it's a three percent swing over two days.

It feels like Charles knew something the rest of us didn't 🙂
what a total washout..

Where on earth are you guys pulling these weather timelines from?

Dennis Myers6 said:So, I guess even gold can't actually keep pace with this runaway inflation we're seeing?
Like, we're talking about the same gold that's supposedly worth five times more than the whole wheat-copper-zinc supply chain?
🙂

If I'm not mistaken, the whole point of saving isn't necessarily to outrun inflation. That would be nice, sure, but that's not really the objective here.

But wait, who actually said gold was a savings vehicle... hmmm.

I have to admit, some of the posts on this forum feel less like objective analysis and more like religious dogma or cultish chanting, much like what I've noticed before.
Gold is just as speculative as any stock—anyone who doesn't see that (and I'm talking about 2012 and beyond, not the Stone Age) simply isn't participating in the conversation.
The fundamental nature of gold is speculative. At least behind a stock, there's an actual company that might succeed or fail, execute acquisitions, or leverage its R&D department to launch a groundbreaking product the market will snap up... (just to be clear, I'm not a big proponent of stocks myself; I don't own a single one at the moment).

PS
Given all that, I'm a little... unnerved by what Goldman Sachs said regarding gold prices dropping in 2013. When they make calls like that, it genuinely makes me nervous.

Because if they're right, the exact opposite might happen. What do they know that we don't? Why is the outlook so bleak?

It looks like some kind of hunter hidden in the tall grass... based on the photo, it almost reminds me of freshly melted, engraved gold. I’ll give you a thumbs up on the concept, though. If I recall correctly, it isn't illegal, provided the actual gold purity matches what's stated on the hallmark (whether it's 14k, 24k, or whatever)

Honestly, this is one of the biggest loads of nonsense in this entire thread. People keep talking about "preserved value." Preserved value of what? If that "value" has to be converted back into paper currency just for it to mean anything, then what's the point? What can you actually do with that value if it’s just sitting there under a mattress? How is it even useful?

Value, my foot. Its value fluctuates on the stock market every single day. Even if it used to represent something tangible, today it has absolutely nothing to do with any kind of real-world worth.

I’m genuinely curious: how many people holding physical gold—or especially those holding paper gold—would actually keep it if its loyalty started dropping by 10%, then 20%, then 30%, then 40%, until it finally tanked to 90% of its current value?
Just a little thought on this so-called "value."

This thread hasn't seen anything fresh in about two years. We’ve got some guy tossing out mediocre forecasts, while Charles is out there successfully day trading—I have to hand it to him, because these gold speculators are just so painfully predictable. To be honest, I usually call the entry and exit points correctly in my head before anyone else even blinks. Then you have a few people posting just to hear themselves talk, and this one particular user who has been parroting the same lines for two years straight: that gold is the only real money and its ounce count is fixed, so the price can't drop. It's like listening to a broken record.

Is there going to be any actual refreshment here anytime soon?

I suspect we won't see much more of a dip anytime soon, so if you're looking to buy, now might actually be the sweet spot.
Between the physical market shifts and those aggressive speculators driving things up, 😁

? Quite the opposite, if you ask me. I’d bet two-thirds of those non-performing loans are still in their first third of repayment—meaning they’ve maybe cleared a fifth of the principal. They don't have much to liquidate because their debt levels remain essentially the same; maybe slightly lower, but certainly not enough to cover the gap.

I was just reading some articles today about those $40 billion in bad loans and debated whether to start a thread. Ultimately, I thought, why bother? Anyone with half a brain knows this is inevitable. If you don't see it coming, knowing that every other loan is delinquent won't change anything for you anyway (and by delinquent, I mean installments overdue by 90 days or more).

That’s the whole point I keep making to the "chicken hawks" out there: the banks did everything in their power to maximize short-term profits, but mid-term, this trajectory is unsustainable.
What kind of growth are we even talking about here? A massive influx of foreign capital? Please. You’re looking at 7% interest on savings accounts while practically paying 10-12% on everything else, like mortgages and auto loans. Meanwhile, property prices are sliding and unemployment is climbing.
The only way this survives is if someone invents an economic "magic trick." There is no other way.

The real question is—how do we play this? Let’s assume we have some cash on hand and zero debt. What’s the move?
I highly doubt any loans will be forgiven. We aren't in the South, so trying to short the market on that assumption isn't going to work.

Since most of these non-performing loans are held by corporations, I doubt we'll see some massive stampede of real estate hitting the market. I don't know.

I wasn't looking to short the market at all; if anything, I’d be leaning toward a long position once the timing felt right.
Honestly, I appreciate the support from everyone here. If I wanted to be told "just let it go, leave it to the big players," I could have just stayed home and listened to my girlfriend.

Anyways, if anyone knows of any US brokers that allow for live gold trading, please let me know!

Honestly? I’ve been looking abroad, but nothing really inspires any confidence in me. If I had my way, I wouldn't bother traveling to those parts at all...

I have to say, I really respect how Charles handles things.
The percentage might seem small, but it’s steady progress, step by step, and the profits are starting to show.
If I had the financial cushion to do it, I’d be following his lead.

analogharbor44 said:Man, you're probably the only sane person on this entire board. You actually treat gold like a real commodity instead of some ancient relic. And you aren't even getting caught up in the 👍
hype. Everyone else is just busy arguing over nothing.

It’s the truth. This guy is the only one actually staying on topic here.
There’s a certain group of zealots who think they can go on shopping sprees whenever they feel like it because they have some gold tucked away during a total food shortage—which is pure stupidity. Then there are the realists laughing at them. Finally, there are the speculators. That’s where I land. Maybe the value will tick up speculatively, but that’s about it. At the end of the day, gold is just a physical stock; it's just as speculative and just as useless for anything else.

velvetwalker23 said:It’s not just an eBay thing; it applies to any kind of shipment. It’s never happened where two packages arrive at once, which makes no sense. If I order something from within the US, it shouldn't take weeks or months to get here, yet there are plenty of orders placed at the exact same time
I'll just ask him and be done with it.

p.s.
Seriously, all my packages aren't going to fit in that one bag.😁

Of course, you realize that one single package can be bulkier than three others combined. It's also common sense that it's much easier for the mail carrier to visit one address once every two weeks rather than driving to your place four times in those same two weeks—ringing the bell, looking for a porch, driving back and forth, and waiting around.

Maybe there's some other reason why he's so eager to stop by your place so often?

Andrew Barrett4 said:If you want my personal take on this... I guess it’s hard to say for sure without more data, but here's how I see things. I guess if... It’s really not even a question.

We’ve already touched on this topic before, I think. I find myself agreeing with the general sentiment, and I’ve basically positioned myself exactly how Mizuzul described—just sitting on the sidelines for now. To be honest, I haven't bought a single thing since this past summer; I'm just holding onto my cash. Part of that is a choice, I suppose, but part of it feels forced, given that the inevitable War of Ruza is looming over my household anyway. 😬 🤣)

From where I’m sitting, if 2011 turned out to be a profitable year, it probably didn't have much to do with things actually getting better on the ground. I suspect it was more about the fallout from those heavy budget cuts back in 2010 than any actual improvement in the general economy. Maybe it just felt like a relief after the squeeze, but I wouldn't go calling it a genuine recovery.

It’s not just a theory anymore; you can actually feel it happening. It's becoming palpable. And man, once it really starts to settle in... I’ve been looking over the latest numbers on industrial orders, and honestly, it’s hard to say much for certain without getting ahead of myself. Things feel a bit stagnant, I guess. There isn't a massive surge, but there isn't a total collapse either—it’s just that heavy, mid-cycle drift that makes you wonder where the momentum actually went. Maybe we're just seeing a temporary lull as companies wait for more clarity from the Fed, or maybe the appetite for large-scale capital expenditure is just cooling off across the board. It feels like everyone is holding their breath, waiting to see if the macro environment stabilizes before committing to the next big round of equipment buys. I don't know. It’s probably just one of those periods where the data sits in this grey area, neither signaling a boom nor a bust. Just a lot of quiet waiting around.I'm also keeping an eye on... The staffing industry. I guess you could call it what it is—just another cog in the machine. It’s a bit of a cynical way to make a living, really, just moving people around like pieces on a board to fill gaps for companies that don't want the commitment. Maybe it's necessary, maybe not, but it's definitely a strange corner of the economy. When it comes to those short-term gigs, the industry reacts incredibly fast. I guess what happens is that as soon as things start picking up, companies immediately flood the market with zero-hour contracts—you know the type, where they basically tell you, "we'll keep you around as long as we need you, but the second things slow down, you're out." It’s a bit of a revolving door. And it works exactly the same way in reverse; once the volume starts dropping, you see the layoffs hitting hard within a month. It’s just how the cycle goes.

Right now? Both are in a coma.

It's all pretty clear, I suppose.

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.

In my opinion, this is just a temporary rally. I expect it to slide back down toward the ~1520 level again.