Posts by James Taylor3

Lawrence Castillo76 said:They probably bumped up the lines—it was still at 187.5 earlier if you're looking to take that.

No thanks—I've already got too much exposure on the Indiana Pacers to touch that.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Hey NBA fans. Just dropped two singles on the Clippers -3.5 against Dallas at 1.85
and the over 187.5 in Sacramento at 1.85. Good luck.

Isn't the over for Sac-Ind actually 190.5? 🤷

Indiana is one of the better teams in the East—currently sitting at 4th with a solid 9-3 record. They possess an excellent, well-balanced roster where even 7 ( 😲 ) players are averaging double digits. Their perimeter game is strong, potent, and shows real promise. You have Collison, George, and Granger, who is finally finding his rhythm—perhaps finally playing up to expectations.
Indiana’s primary strength lies in the 4 and 5 positions, where they feature several quality players—most notably David West, who arrived from New Orleans and is settling in nicely. He’s backed up by Hansbrough, a high-energy player who leaves everything on the floor and continues to improve. At center, Roy Hibbert has been looking increasingly sharp this season. The Pacers' bench is reliable enough.
Sacramento boasts a young, promising squad, but they are also highly problematic. The duo they are building around—Cousins and Evans—are essentially "problem children" whose off-court issues make them a poor fit for the league.
The rest of the roster includes Thornton, a decent shooter; Hickson, an athletic youngster; and rookie Fredette, who is still adjusting to the pace and remains inconsistent. Sacramento's bench is quite thin due to center Hayes being sidelined with an injury—they lack depth, as Outlaw and the rest simply aren't high-level contributors.
Defensively, Sacramento is the worst in the league, surrendering an average of 101.79 points per game. In contrast, the Pacers boast one of the top defenses, allowing just 88.92 points—the 4th best mark in the league.
Furthermore, Sacramento lacks offensive efficiency, ranking 25th out of 30 teams. Their interior defense is also abysmal—the loss of a defensive anchor like Dalembert last year is clearly felt—leaving them as the worst unit at protecting the paint, giving up a massive 50.1 points in the paint per game. It explains why they are near the bottom of the West with a 4-10 record.
Given that Indiana’s core strength is in the frontcourt, Sacramento will struggle to defend them tonight.
Another key factor: Indiana had 4 days of rest heading into this matchup—significant, especially given this season's dense schedule. Meanwhile, Sacramento had only one day of rest, during which they played twice and lost both convincingly.

Indiana is undoubtedly the superior team. All signs point toward another victory, so I'm taking this handicap with a moderate stake.

Arthur Hill2 said:Fair point—you've got the top seed in the league facing off against the absolute cellar dweller. Honestly, even a 10.5-point spread feels a bit generous. 😬

Man, just be careful not to bet against the superstars here. ☕

Eric Fox7, thanks for the tip. 😁

I’m thinking the Indiana duo is a solid bet.

Sacramento seems to be leading the league in points allowed in the paint—and Indiana's whole game is built around size.

Eric Fox7 said:Just caught the Miami vs. San Antonio highlights.

That third quarter from Miami was something else. 🙏

Third quarter. 😬

Bryan Adams6 said:What's the word on Paul? Is he definitely out tonight? And how many in a row for the Clippers—is this their third or fourth?

wiredcanyon39 said:@Bryan Adams6/">@@Bryan Adams6, this is the second one in a row for the Clips.

No idea if Paul is playing—he wasn't there last night. We'll likely know by the late afternoon injury reports.

If I recall correctly, this is the third straight for the Clippers—they played the Nets the night before last, and they aren't sure who they're facing tonight. 😁

Houston did exactly what you'd expect—they dismantled them—but that’s mainly because the Clippers looked completely broken. 🙂

Doesn't matter—it’s still a marginal win in my book. 😬

Woke up early specifically to catch the second half of the Jazz-Clippers game.
I have to admit, the Jazz surprised me—their defense was solid—though the Clippers certainly didn't help by playing such sloppy ball and struggling from deep.

stormyseal9 said:James Taylor3—not sure if you’re following the trends, but Utah has taken the last 18 home games against the Clippers. People are overhyping a mediocre squad like LA🤷; they struggled against a Nets team missing their best player yesterday, whereas Utah is clearly a tier above New Jersey—especially at home🤷. Anything other than a Jazz win would surprise me, though anything can happen in sports
.

I get it—I just read that the Clippers haven't won in Salt Lake City since way back in 2003. But let's be real: the Clippers have been struggling for years, while the Jazz were a legitimate playoff team led by Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer.

I think the Clippers can pull this one off tonight. They have more athleticism and can neutralize the Jazz's primary strength—their interior presence. Caron Butler is playing well, Foye had a solid game last night, and Billups is managing things intelligently in Paul's absence. It'll be a gritty, difficult matchup—that's exactly why I like the +5 spread on the Clippers. They should cover, maybe even win outright. Plus, there's always the wildcard factor of whether Chris Paul returns to the lineup tonight.

Keith Moore21 said:Howard is definitely out for Utah. Favors mentioned he’d love to play, but he won't decide until he hits the warmups—so, who knows. Here is the link: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...e-bit.html.csp

I’d still take the Jazz here regardless—the Clippers are missing Paul and Williams, Billups is playing 40 minutes despite back issues, and they had an unexpectedly grueling game against the Nets yesterday where almost all starters clocked over 35 minutes. Utah is rested and at home. Why wouldn't they win...

I’m actually leaning toward the Clippers. With Favors out, slow players like Jefferson and Milsap aren't going to handle the athleticism of Jordan, Griffin, and Evans—they could cause real trouble on the offensive glass and create extra possessions. If Utah shuts down the bigs, the Clippers should cruise, since Hayward, Miles, and the rest—aside from Harris—are mediocre at best. Besides, Chris Paul was excellent last night; he’s running the floor smart and hitting clutch threes and layups. I agree the Clippers are tired after yesterday, but they did have three days of rest before the Lakers game.
Mo Williams likely won't suit up, but I'm not so sure about Paul. Judging by these reports (it's only 11:30 AM in LA right now🙂), Paul might be good to go.

A few interesting stats:

The Clippers have lost four consecutive games to the Jazz, and 10 of 11. The Clippers last won in Salt Lake City on Jan. 22, 2003, by a score of 96-86. The Jazz started the season slowly but has won eight of its last 10 games.

Utah isn't as strong as their current record suggests—at least, that's my impression.
Not sure, I see the value at 2.50 on the Clippers at Pinnacle and +5 @ 1.84 there too.

My play:

Utah vs. LA Clippers
Pick: LA Clippers +5

Odds: 1.84

Stake: 4/10

George Morris3 said:I need an expert NBA opinion here.🤷
David Lee (Golden State) has been dropping 24-26 points over his last three games—does anyone know what Cleveland’s interior defense looks like at center? Can Lee actually exploit them? I noticed the odds for the under just dropped.😁

Looking for some insight. Thanks.😁

Not an expert, but here is my take:

James Taylor3 said:Check if Curry is playing tonight. Lee's recent numbers are largely due to Curry being out, which leaves him taking more shots. Plus, he'll be facing Varejao today—it won't be easy.

And it looks like Curry is indeed out tonight.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...SPV11MQ4SO.DTL

William Price66 said:Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets — 1

Milwaukee is your classic home-court team—they play one way at home and look like a completely different squad on the road. I caught the Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz game recently, and honestly, they looked lost. I can't tell if it’s just the road fatigue or if they simply had an off night, but either way, the Nuggets are the favorites here. Personally, I see some serious value in Milwaukee at 2.10.

Looking at the numbers—4-0 at home versus a dismal 0-8 on the road—it’s pretty clear that Milwaukee is strictly a home team.
I agree they struggle on the road—but I noticed that five of those eight away losses happened while Andrew Bogut was out. It’s hard to ignore that factor. He’s absolutely vital to them, both on the defensive end and in the offensive sets.

That's right—Denver is playing at home against the Utah Jazz. I know, I missed that myself. 😁

Michael Young2 said:James Taylor3, you catch this?

[Basketball] [NBA] [Game] Detroit Pistons vs Houston Rockets. All wagers placed on the [Total] between 1/17/2012 7:12:34 AM and 1/17/2012 7:12:37 AM have been voided—due to a typo in the original posting. We apologize for the slip-up.

I took the same -6.5 spread when the odds were sitting at 1.83.
Does that mean the spreads were voided too?

I hadn't quite grasped that—until you pointed it out.

And if he's saying "ALL BETS," I assume everything is fully settled then. 🤷
Look at whether you actually got your money back—that’s the only metric that truly matters.

I just placed my bet.

EDIT:

Here’s the latest on Rose for tonight:

Rose mentioned the team is leaning toward sitting him out for a second straight game—though, he added, the ultimate call rests with him.

He might suit up tonight, but I doubt it—why risk an injury for some meaningless game we can easily win without him?

14w/17l ; +4,994 units; ROI: +3.62%

Houston vs. Detroit
Pick: Houston -7.5

Coefficient: 1.962

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 5/10

Both teams have been running a grueling schedule lately. For Houston, this is their sixth game in eight days—Detroit is facing their fifth in that same span. It’s early in the season, so fatigue isn't a massive factor yet, but the workload is heavy. Houston is riding momentum with three straight wins; tonight's victory would bring them to a .500 record, which is essential if they want any shot at the playoffs in a brutal, crowded West.
The main engines here—Kevin Martin and Luis Scola—are playing high-level ball and carrying the load, bolstered by Kyle Lowry, who has been electric recently. The rest of the Rockets roster holds up well. Budinger is in decent shape and consistently converts open looks created by the starters. Their new center, Samuel Dalembert, provides much-needed interior toughness on defense, but he’s also been productive offensively with rebounding and finishing lately. While the Houston bench isn't spectacular, they should be able to outmatch a Detroit squad that's struggling significantly. The Pistons currently sit at 3-10, having lost seven of their last eight. They did manage to scrape a win against a similarly lackluster Charlotte side a few days ago, but overall, they aren't clicking. Detroit's defense is porous in the paint, which should leave plenty of lanes for Lowry and Scola to exploit. Furthermore, Detroit possesses one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging just 85.4 points per game. I also read this morning that they are among the teams taking the fewest shots and converting at one of the lowest rates in the league (http://nbacro.com/clanci/pogled-kroz...calderon-13309). Houston has been averaging 108 points over their last three outings and could easily keep that triple-digit scoring streak alive tonight.
Additionally, Detroit is statistically the worst rebounding team in the league. They look exhausted, and they're playing with a roster of veterans who seem to be coasting toward retirement, given that a playoff run is virtually impossible for this club.
On the injury front, Detroit is still without Carlos Villanueva and potentially Andrew Bynum, while Houston's status for Lee remains uncertain, though he might see some minutes.
One more complication for Detroit: a stressful travel day. A hydraulic issue forced their plane to make an emergency landing, requiring them to switch to a taxi to reach a different airport just to continue the trip to Houston.

Jesse Wright68 said:Looking at the over 22.5 line for Lee @2.05. There’s some value there—his last six scores were 15, 13, 20, 25, 24, and 24. He's hovering right near that margin, but I’m going to ride this trend at these odds.

Make sure to check if Curry is playing tonight. A lot of Lee's recent production comes from having more shot attempts while Curry is out. Plus, he'll have Varej shadowing him today—it won't be an easy night.

First bet is the spread on the Rockets and the under for Cleveland vs Golden State.

I'll need to look closer at those numbers this afternoon.

That was way too close—it started off so promisingly. 😁

They just wasted half an hour of my life. 🙂

Gregory Cooper5 said:Exactly—three minutes left and two possessions... they might scrape out an 8 or 9 point lead, but what about the next three games? Expecting 2, 1, 1...?

I'm not sure—the Timberwolves aren't exactly a powerhouse, and I don't trust the odds enough, even if they should win. Kobe Bryant will definitely force shots against the Dallas Mavericks; if his jumper isn't falling—say, if Shawn Marion plays him tight (which he can)—the LA Lakers could easily lose this despite their massive advantage in the paint.

Joshua Garcia8 said:That was intense. 😬

loneharbor34 said:Just barely missed a 10-point lead. 😁

Too close for comfort, but fine, it's over. 😁

I actually went in with an 8/10 confidence level—I was certain. 😬

Come on, don't mess with me.

Come on, LA Clippers—don't go throwing away everything you built during this game...

12w/17l ; -4,383 units; ROI: -3.43%

LA Clippers vs New Jersey Nets
Pick: Clippers -7.5

Odds: 1.847

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 7/10

The Clippers are significantly more talented than the visitors—even without Chris Paul, who might sit tonight. If he does suit up, things look even worse for the Nets. The Clippers boast an excellent starting five: Paul, Billups (who provides quality backup if needed), Butler, Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Their bench offers some depth, though the rest isn't particularly deep. Playing at home, the Clippers are dominant with a 5-1 record, whereas the Nets aren't much of a squad; without Deron, they’d likely be the worst team in the league. DeAndre Jordan and Evans are elite rebounders and shot-blockers, so the Nets won't find easy paths to the rim—meanwhile, there is simply nobody capable of stopping Griffin. The Clippers hold a clear advantage at every position except point guard, where they face two of the best floor generals in the league. However, unlike Paul, who knows when to stop settling if his shot isn't falling, Deron doesn't have that luxury. With this roster, he’s forced to shoot regardless of whether he's hot or not—which, lately, has been a frequent issue.

Since Rose is out, my bet is on:

Memphis vs Chicago 1 2.15 3/10

Last minute decision.

Spot on, Keith Moore21. 😁

Solid picks for today—I like the direction you're taking.

By the way, could someone double-check the matchups for Deron and Paul? I feel like I read somewhere last year that Deron absolutely tears into CP3 during their head-to-head games—supposedly he puts up massive averages there. 🤷