Posts by James Taylor3

Keith Moore21, my apologies regarding Denver last night—they really let us down. 🙂

Checking out today's lines now.

12w/16l ; -0,385 unitsa; ROI: -0,31 %

Denver - Utah

Pick: Denver -9.5

Odds: 1.855

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Wager: 4/10

Denver boasts significantly more depth than a Utah squad that—to everyone's surprise—has actually started the season decently. Still, Utah hasn't looked particularly convincing on the road; facing an elite home team like the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back is a tall order. Denver’s perimeter game is simply superior—Lawson, Afflalo, Fernandez, and Gallinari are too much for the Jazz wing players to handle, and I don't see Utah making up that deficit. As for the frontcourt, things are roughly even now that Mozgov has finally found his rhythm. I expect a comfortable Denver win—their 117-100 victory two weeks ago, where they held a 27-point lead, should serve as a good indicator.

Keith Moore21 said:Even those 40+ PPG scorers hover around 50% shooting—hardly a bad number.😁
It isn't just about Gasol or the rest of the big men—it's the perimeter. Aside from Kobe, they lack anyone capable of dropping 15 points on any given night... Kapono, Barnes, Artest... please. They're mostly veterans brought in for defense (Kapono barely even manages that), but offensively, they're extremely limited. They might have a flash here and there, but overall, it's subpar. In my view, the real issue is the lack of a true playmaker. Fisher is aging and can't hold his own on defense anymore, and Blake is more focused on scoring than facilitating anyway—plus, he's far from an elite shooter himself.

I completely agree. 👍

Man, Oklahoma barely scraped by with a +12 after hitting over +30 at the end of the third—talk about thin margins. 😁

Oklahoma is absolutely tearing it apart.
Up by 23 at the half. 🙏

11w/16l ; -5.06 units; ROI: -4.25%

Oklahoma vs. New York
Pick: Oklahoma -10.5

Odds: 1.935

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Stake: 5/10

Both rosters look enticing on paper due to their two superstars. However—aside from those four—the depth in Oklahoma far outclasses the Knicks. In the paint, we’ll see Chandler matched against Perkins; they are roughly comparable, so I don't expect much movement there. But the rest of the squad? Oklahoma holds the edge—they have a future All-Star in Harden, an elite rebounder and shot-blocker in Ibaka, a reliable floor spacer in Selofoshu, and a bench that actually produces. The Knicks, meanwhile, are struggling with a mediocre point guard in Douglas, an inconsistent Lanrdy Fields, a questionable bench, subpar defense, and a coach who hasn't quite won over the fan base. To make matters worse, New York is playing without Carmelo Anthony today—without him, they look like a group of amateurs, with all due respect to Stoudemire. Their rookie, Schumpert, is shooting wildly with zero shot selection—not a great look unless you happen to be Kobe Black Mamba. 😁
One final note—this is the Knicks' third game in four days; fatigue is a factor. They haven't been playing particularly well lately, whereas Oklahoma has had two days of rest and should be significantly fresher.
The line is a bit steep, but I think there's value here. Everything points toward a comfortable Oklahoma win.

Well, damn—what a night of results. 🙂

Indiana managed to pull off the win, and even Boston tried to claw their way back after falling behind—but they just couldn't complete the comeback before the buzzer.

Honestly, I have no one to blame but myself; I’ve been being foolish by forcing too many parlays.

Starting today, it’s one play a day—maybe two at most.

Sneaky little move by Ciro—clever, really. 👍

10 wins, 14 losses — plus 0.94 units. ROI sits at +0.90%.

Indiana vs. Toronto.

The pick: Indiana.

Odds: 1.25

Betting Site: DraftKings

Rating: 5/10

I’ll admit it—I underestimated the Raptors this season. Their defensive improvements have been immediate and tangible. I originally pegged them as one of the bottom-tier teams, but they're clearly positioned to climb several spots higher than last year. Ultimately, their success hinges on the duo of Bargnani and DeRozan. Bargnani is a solid asset—averaging 22.3 points on an impressive 48.9% shooting, alongside 6.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Had he landed with a more high-profile franchise, he’d be a legitimate All-Star candidate. However, he’s sidelined tonight due to injury—he missed the team shootaround this morning and looks unlikely to suit up against the Indiana Pacers. That leaves the heavy lifting to DeRozan, who has struggled significantly since the season opener. His production has dipped sharply compared to last year—specifically his scoring average and field goal percentage—and over the last five games, he’s averaged a meager 8.8 points (down from 14.2 on the season) while shooting barely above 30%. That is exceptionally poor.
With Toronto dealing with injuries to both Toronto and Bayless—their offensive options are looking pretty thin today. Sure, the defense has stepped up, but let’s be real: it’s far from perfect. Last season they were routinely giving up over 100 points, so this is progress, I suppose. As for the offense, the rest of the roster is fairly limited. It’ll be interesting to see how Kleiza handles things—he's a heavy ball user, and if he starts settling for contested threes, his shooting percentage could easily tank again.

Indiana is a solid squad—top 6 in the East, in my estimation. They possess a balanced roster and decent depth. Their interior presence is formidable, anchored by West and Hansbrough at the four and Hibbert at center. Their star, Granger, has finally found his rhythm, and with a reliable shooter like George in the rotation, they have Collison running the point. They defend well and have plenty of offensive options—I think they actually take this Toronto team. It's worth noting they've already faced them once this season, right here in Toronto, and walked away with a 90-85 win. Back then, Bargnani and Bayless were in the lineup and combined for 34 of the Raptors' 85 points—21 from Bargnani and 13 from Bayless—shooting a collective 54%. Neither of them is in the picture today.
Look, it’s their fourth game in five days here in Toronto—it's going to be a grind.

Boston vs. Chicago. A classic matchup.

Boston.

Odds: 2.18

The sportsbook: Pinnacle.

Rating: 3/10

The Celtics haven't exactly hit the ground running this season—they're sitting at 9th in the East with a 4-5 record. However, Paul Pierce is back. He isn't quite at peak fitness yet, but the man lives for high-stakes matchups like tonight’s clash against the Bulls. This is an older roster—a group of veterans who entered the season with that specific "diesel" build—so we'll have to see if they can actually ramp up as the playoffs approach. Ray Allen's shooting has been sharp this year, and Rajon Rondo has officially ascended to superstar status; he’s playing elite ball, evolving from a pure facilitator into someone who actually takes responsibility for scoring. Kevin Garnett had a sluggish start, but he’s finally waking up and finding his rhythm. With Brandon Bass, the Celtics have secured a legitimate spark plug off the bench—certainly a step up from what Big Baby offered. Their glaring weakness remains the glass and the center position. The Celtics are currently 29th out of 30 teams in rebounding, while the Bulls are among the league's best, sitting at second.
Chicago is looking at a shaky Derrick Rose situation—he missed the last one, and while he’s slated to play tonight, he isn't exactly at 100%. On the other side, Rajon Rondo is a savvy defender who can sense blood in the water. If he manages to force Rose into some contested shots, Boston's win probability climbs significantly. Interestingly, Rose has put up monster numbers against Boston, but that's strictly a home-court phenomenon; his production tends to dip once he steps into their arena. Joakim Noah is also nursing a minor injury, though he's expected to suit up. As for Bobby Boozer, he's hit a bit of a slump after a strong start to the season—we'll see how he handles Kevin Garnett tonight, especially since Garnett will undoubtedly be getting in his head during their matchups. 😁

I think the Celtics have the win in them tonight—the odds should be much closer than they are, so I'm taking Boston to win.

New Orleans vs. Minnesota

Pick: New Orleans

Odds: 2.05

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Unit: 6/10

Both teams sit at an identical 3-7 record right now.
That said, New Orleans deserves more credit—they have a solid, balanced roster. If their core stays healthy through the season, they could easily flirt with a .500 winning percentage. Of course, that depends entirely on avoiding long-term injuries, particularly for their star, Gordon, who has always been injury-prone. He’s out again tonight for that very reason. On the other side, the Timberwolves might see a returning Trevor Ariza. With Okfor, Kaminsky, and Landry providing significant size in the paint, Kevin Love won't have to fight quite as hard for positioning under the rim. Jarrett Jack could also cause some serious headaches for them.

Minnesota is dealing with their own injury issues—they'll be without two key pieces, Barea and Beasley, leaving the load squarely on Love and Rubio. Coach Wolves' coach, Adelman, is even considering a three-man rotation change in the starting lineup, though we'll have to see if he actually pulls the trigger on that.

New Orleans looks like the better bet here. They're playing at home, their defense should be able to stifle Minnesota, and given that Minnesota's defense isn't exactly elite, this is the perfect matchup for the Pelicans to finally get a win on the board.

Eric Fox7 said:🤣
Give me a break—the value is clearly on the over at @ 1.05 ☕
: rofl:

They probably had some people betting it just to drive the odds up. 😁

I forgot to place my bet on the way home from work—now I can't be bothered to head down to the local lottery outlet.

Eric Fox7 said:They dropped the under on Kobe to @ 5.80 🤣

Everyone is forcing the under. 😬

Thanks, Terry Cook48. 🙂

The Lakers should probably take down Cleveland, but -11.5 feels a bit steep—I assume that’s just due to how they’re setting the lines for certain teams.

I'm liking the Dallas unit, and the odds against New Orleans aren't bad either.

I'll dive deeper into the matchups this afternoon.

I’m probably starting to bore myself—let alone all of you—but regardless, I’d like to request some NBA odds. 😍

No need for anything too granular; just the basics and the total points should do fine. 😁

Terry Cook48 said:then we’re thinking along the same lines... after all those massive scoring bursts, he could easily dip below 19.5—maybe let him cool off for a bit or just have an off night and there you go...😁

We'll give it a shot...

Yeah, after two games where he cleared 40 points ( 🙏 ), things might settle down today. His average won't take too much of a hit if he lands somewhere in the 16-17 range. 😁

Terry Cook48 said:NBA
19.5/Bryant K. (LAL vs CLE) 7.75 1.05
19.5/Holiday J. (NOP vs WAS) 1.25 3.35

Can they not set decent lines and odds? Seriously... what is wrong with these people?🙂🙂 🙂

What nonsense. 🙏 🙏 🙏

They aren't sane. 🙄

Actually, betting on Kobe under 19.5 might be worth it—the odds are solid. 😲

The Lakers will likely dismantle the Cavs. Kobe might see less minutes—plus, looking ahead, the Lakers have that LA derby against the Clippers tomorrow. They’ll definitely want to make up for those two preseason losses and prove who really runs Los Angeles. 🤷
True, Kobe is in incredible form—scoring like crazy—but given his injury history, he probably needs to pace himself in games like this. The Lakers can likely cruise to a win without him carrying the full load. Between Bynum and Gasol, they have enough firepower to handle a weak Cavs squad—especially since they played last night and won't be rested.

If this line holds until 4 PM, I might toss a few bucks on it. 😁

Well, that was a close one—nearly missed the under. 😂

Lucky the stake was low.
Noticed there's a heavy slate of games today; might be worth putting something together.

Eric Fox7, thanks for the detailed breakdown, but I just wrapped up work—missed the window. 😁

My slate for today:

10w/13l ; +3.94 units; ROI: +3.86%

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons

Pick: Under 177.5 total points

Odds: 1.971

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Unit Size: 3/10

No time for a deep dive, so here's the quick version. Both squads are struggling—slow, inefficient offenses. Milwaukee's defense holds up well, and Detroit is decent enough. I expect a low-scoring affair; the under feels right even with such a low line. Minor injury concerns on both sides—nothing game-altering. Didn't have time for a full scouting report, hence the low unit size.

Eric Fox7, nice work on those wins—I see you’ve got a few more winning tickets on the board. Kudos. 🙏

As for me, I caught two last night and missed two—ended up down 0.5 units.

Can someone post today's slate, including the spreads and totals?
Noticed the schedule looks a bit light today.

Michael Stewart3 said:On DraftKings, the over for Denver vs. New Jersey (194.5) dropped to 1.7.

The money is moving. 🤣

Also, the under for New Orleans was shaved down to 1.60. 🤣

wiredcanyon39 said:James Taylor3—I’m leaning toward the under 92.5 for the New Jersey game. I took that same line against a local college squad recently. Sure, Denver plays at a frantic pace and tends to give up points, but let's be real—the Nets are just plain bad. Even if they end up at 103-92, everyone walks away happy. 😁

That’s pretty much how I see the final score landing—111 to 90.

Today’s slate is brutal—honestly, I’d love to just hammer every single game. 🙂

8w/11l ; +4.44 units; ROI: +5.35%

Denver - New Jersey

Pick: Over 194.5 total points

Odds: 1.85

Sportsbook: DraftKings

Stake: 4/10

Denver is one of the premier offensive units in the league—currently sitting second in scoring average (101.70). They play well; they have deep, balanced rosters, even if they lack a true transcendent superstar. They suffered an unexpected home loss to the Hornets the night before—their first home defeat this season—leaving everyone from the coach to the players frustrated. They’re looking to get back to business tonight. The Nets are the perfect morale booster here (though perhaps the Wizards would have been easier targets, but it doesn't matter). It's a weak squad—even Deron Williams can't do much with these amateurs; his numbers have dipped significantly compared to last season, clearly reflecting his frustration. The Nets simply won't have the firepower to resist a strong Nuggets team, who should win convincingly. Coach Malone has a full roster available, including Lawson, who noted: "It's all right. It's a little sore, but it should be better in a couple of days. I plan on playing on Wednesday." So, they are complete. Denver essentially has two balanced starting lineups, meaning fatigue shouldn't be an issue. Even their centers, Mozgov and Koufos, have started playing solidly. While Denver is elite offensively, their defense isn't anything special, so the Nets should manage around 90 points—which, in my view, is enough to clear this line. Furthermore, there's a good chance Denver runs away with it, which often leads to a more relaxed pace late in the game, potentially squeezing out extra points.
I almost took this over at Pinnacle where the line is 198.5, but since DraftKings is offering a much lower threshold, I'll take it there.

New Orleans - Oklahoma

Pick: Under 187.5 total points

Odds: 1.85

Sportsbook: DraftKings

Stake: 6/10

New Orleans boasts one of the best defenses in the league. They've seen significant roster changes this offseason. They traded away their top playmaker, Paul, and in return, landed two very solid pieces: center Kaman and one of the league's better shooters, Gordon. However, Gordon has been sidelined with an injury for a while and won't suit up tonight—he's typically their leading scorer. The Pelicans have a fairly balanced rotation now, featuring a surprisingly good Jarrett Jack, Italian shooter Bellinelli—who I'm not particularly fond of—solid Carl Landry, and centers Okafor and Kaman. Those two are quality players: one provides interior defense and rebounding, the other offers offensive presence. Their only major absence tonight is defensive specialist Ariza, but it shouldn't matter; New Orleans' team defense should be able to stifle Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is a legitimate title contender with an incredible roster. Durant, Westbrook, Ibaku, and Perkins need no introduction; they are top-tier talents at their positions and are rightful contenders for the championship, or at least the Western Conference title.
However, they’ve played three games in the last four days, and tonight marks their fourth game in five days. That is a grueling stretch. They also had a physical game against Memphis on the road last night. On top of that, backup guard Cook is injured, leaving the Thunder bench quite thin—essentially just Harden and Collison. It's a shallow rotation.
I believe New Orleans can contain Oklahoma, which likely means holding them under, say, 95 points. If that happens, my bet hits.

So, I'm taking the under, and I'll add this as a secondary play:

New Orleans - Oklahoma
Pick: New Orleans +6.5 spread
Odds: 1.98
Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10

Quite simply, this contra-handicap feels too high. New Orleans might be a mid-tier team, but they are tough at home and play disciplined defense. There's no reason they can't keep it within 6 points of Oklahoma.

Portland vs. Orlando

Pick: Portland

Odds: 1.45

Sportsbook: 스테이트 팜 (State Farm)

Wager: 5/10

Keith Moore21 laid it all out in his analysis—I agree with him completely. Portland is simply the superior squad here. Orlando relies almost entirely on Dwight Howard; the rest of them are just roster filler. Jason Richardson has been a disaster this season, Nelson offers nothing special, and while Turkoglu is marginally better than his abysmal run last year, Anderson’s three-point shooting is hit-or-miss at best. Glen Davis has been surprisingly decent, though. It’s obvious nobody can guard Howard effectively—it's a lost cause. However, Camby and Thomas are seasoned defensive centers; they know how to draw fouls and might just get under "Superman's" skin. Regardless of how he performs tonight, Orlando won't win unless his teammates actually show up. I think Portland has an answer for everyone. Nelson is mediocre compared to Felton in offensive matchups, Matthews can handle Richardson, and Wallace and Batum should neutralize Turkoglu. As for Aldridge and Smith, they’ll handle the heavy Davis. My only uncertainty is how the matchup against Anderson plays out—since he stretches to the four spot, the Aldridge-Anderson dynamic will be interesting to watch. I don't see Anderson causing much trouble for the Blazers.
Regarding Portland's offense—they're playing much faster this season, more efficient, and frankly, more entertaining to watch. They have plenty of scoring options, and the bench depth—featuring Batum, Crawford, Smith, and the rest—is solid. I expect the Blazers to take this because they are fundamentally more talented than the Magic, despite playing a game last night. Portland has two days of rest following this matchup, so they'll certainly bring their A-game to secure the win.