Posts by Lawrence Vaughn3

Hey everyone 🙂
My gut tells me we're looking at Philly and the Hornets...

I’m holding out hope for a little shock from the Hornets tonight... maybe even seeing Gordon clear those 20 points 🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:Golden State is just incredible—pure, high-octane basketball that’s a joy for us neutral fans to watch. Ellis absolutely dismantled the New York Knicks in that final quarter, whereas Melo was practically invisible... expect to see him struggle again tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers.

I heard a rumor that Melo might be dealing with an injury... though I'm not certain about Ellis.😁

Keith Moore21 said:1527 Orlando-New Jersey Nets Fri 01:00 1.15 18.0 5.40 1.07 4.15
1528 Houston-San Antonio Spurs Fri 02:00 2.00 13.0 1.90 1.70 1.65
1529 Oklahoma City-Dallas Mavericks Fri 02:00 1.45 16.0 2.80 1.35 2.35
1530 Portland-Denver Nuggets Fri 04:00 1.50 15.0 2.60 1.40 2.25
1531 Sacramento-Chicago Bulls Fri 04:00 3.60 16.0 1.30 2.90 1.20
1532 L.A. Lakers-New York Knicks Fri 04:30 1.65 14.0 2.30 1.50 2.00

Hey everyone...
Looking at the slate today, Oklahoma City and Portland seem like the logical plays...

Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 2 @1.70
The Golden State Warriors just took down Chicago—honestly, I think they’ve collected enough big scalps to last the week. As for the New York Knicks, I've been keeping an eye on them and it feels like we finally have a solid squad... though, we're definitely dealing with some issues regarding our Players. Hopefully, there won't be too many TOovs on the floor tonight. We aren't exactly expecting anything out of the park from Douglas or that little Chinese kid either...

Sorry, I didn't quite catch what you meant by "we have a good squad"... were you only referring to the Knicks? My bad, I totally missed that part. 😢

Bryan Adams6 said:Does nobody else think these guys at $2.4M look tempting enough for the Clippers? 😕

The Clippers
Miami
Atlanta

that’s basically how the main rotation looks right now...

I personally have the Clippers, Indiana, and the Hornets on my list...🙂

1 X 2 1X X2
1484 Toronto-Indiana Pacers sri 23:55 2,30 14,0 1,65 2,00 1,50
1485 Charlott-Miami Heat čet 01:00 4,60 17,0 1,20 3,60 1,10
1486 Atlanta-Washington Wizar. čet 01:30 1,25 17,0 4,00 1,15 3,20
1487 Detroit-Cleveland Caval. čet 01:30 1,45 16,0 2,80 1,35 2,35
1488 NewOrlea-Boston Celtics čet 02:00 2,30 14,0 1,65 2,00 1,50
1489 Memphis-Oklahoma City T. čet 02:00 2,00 13,0 1,90 1,70 1,65
1490 SanAnton-LA Clippers čet 02:30 1,60 14,0 2,40 1,45 2,00
1491 Denver Nuggets-Utah Jazz čet 03:00 1,20 17,0 4,60 1,10 3,60
1492 Phoenix-Philadelphia 76ers čet 03:00 2,00 13,0 1,90 1,70 1,65
1493 GolState-New York Knicks čet 04:30 2,25 13,0 1,70 1,90 1,50

Here is today's main slate... do with it what you will 🙂 SS

James Castillo8 said:Kobe Bryant was sitting at 26 yesterday😁 watching the Milwaukee Bucks blow a nearly 20-point lead—absolute disaster. Meanwhile, Kevin Love had 20 rebounds... what an absolute king.

What’s the move on taking the Clippers at +2?

Personally, I’d take them... they look a bit more polished than the San Antonio Spurs

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Hawks vs Wizards 1 @1.25
It’s enough to say the Hawks dismantled the Nets—the same squad that managed to flip the script on Washington earlier (just paying the price for inexperience, as I mentioned before). They played far too well, and they generally tend to take most of their games at home anyway...

Charlotte Bobcats vs Miami Heat 2 @1.20
I’m skipping this bet because of the home team, but rather focusing on the visitors; they've matured, they have a solid rookie in the mix, and frankly, it feels like their time has come to start taking over the NBA...

Warriors vs Knicks 2 @1.70
The Warriors beat Chicago, so maybe they’ve picked up enough big scalps for one week. Meanwhile, I’ve been watching the Knicks and I think we finally have a decent roster—though we're dealing with some issues regarding the Playmakers, let's just hope there aren't too many TOovs. I'm certainly not expecting anything out of the ordinary from Douglas or that little Chinese kid (whatever he's called)...

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder over 194.5 @1.85
This bet is just calling to me. Both teams are offensively explosive right now, and I don't see much defense being prioritized. Honestly, though, this pick is more of a gut feeling than a deeply calculated analysis...

@4.71

I'm still weighing whether to go after player points. The overs on Kevin Garnett, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Manu Ginobili look promising enough...

the Golden State Warriors playmaker is Stephen Curry http://www.nba.com/playerfile/stephe....html?nav=page
it seems to me that Golden State expects quite a lot from him...

New Orleans Pelicans vs Boston Celtics: 1 @ 2.30
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: 2 @ 1.90

Total odds: 4.37 via DraftKings
Just a modest little play... nothing crazy, just enough to get something on the board 🙂

What are your thoughts?

analoghound21 said:I mean, honestly—if you already had that hunch, I really hope you didn't end up putting money on it in the end... 🤷

In any case, the guy laid out his thoughts pretty thoroughly—backed up by actual facts, too—but hey, things just played out the way they did in the end... I don't see much point in dragging him for it now. He'll do better next time... 😉

I respect what he wrote—those are just facts... but if he’s averaging 8.9 points against the Miami Heat, that doesn't mean he's actually going to drop nine...
I just wanted to say—I had this gut feeling it was going to clear the 16.5 line, and I actually put it down in writing...

I told you guys all along that Rondo would clear his 16.5 line—yet I had five different people here trying to convince me there was absolutely no way he’d go over...

Nicholas Chase34 said:The fact that Paul Pierce might be out—meaning it’s not even confirmed he won’t play—doesn't change much.
A player being absent from the lineup doesn't automatically guarantee an over for someone else. You have to look at the specific role and mindset of the player involved... Rondo is a point guard, and his primary job is to facilitate and dish out assists. When it comes to his offensive capabilities, they're pretty thin—his perimeter shooting is subpar, so he really relies on layups. He had a bit of a "flash" during the game against the New York Knicks, though that was largely thanks to the Knicks' interior defense allowing him to score 16 points on layups in just 10 attempts(shooting 8-10), plus he picked up some easy buckets in transition because their transition defense was basically 0.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIoXD2THO8I 🤦 Zero defensive presence there.

Now, looking at today's opponent, the Miami Heat, who are arguably the main title contenders this season. Miami boasts a very solid interior defense—they were among the best last season, holding opponents to about 58% accuracy. The Heat will undoubtedly prepare for this matchup, and they'll almost certainly focus their attention on Rondo and his drives to the rim. Last season against Miami, Rondo averaged 8.9 points over 9 games (4, 8, 11, 7, 8, 20, 6, 10, 6). As you can see, he had that one outlier performance; without it, his average would be even lower than 8.9.
Regarding the 16.5 line... that’s a threshold Rondo cleared 15 times in 77 games last season, and we can certainly guess which teams those were against. At first glance, it looks like a "low" line—especially given his performance against the Knicks—so most people will naturally be drawn to the over. But I wouldn't call it that; for a playmaker with Rondo's specific skill set, this is actually quite a high bar. Sure, he could clear it, but the crux of the matter is that number: 16.5 (value) ☕

👍

I think Rondo scored 22 points, which is over 16.5 😉

Arthur Hill2 said:What really stood out to me about the Minnesota Timberwolves was Ricky Rubio—a true, classic floor general.

They kept the Oklahoma City Thunder hanging on until the final minutes, but a little help from the refs and they cruised to the win... 👋

The Minnesota Timberwolves might actually make a run in the playoffs this year... they’ve got a young, talented roster on their hands.

wiredcanyon39 said:Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
Record: 7/10
0w/0l
The Minnesota Timberwolves have added two rookies this season—Ricky Rubio and John Wall—and honestly, they’re looking sharp. Ricky has been capturing everyone's attention lately, showing off that elite passing vision we've known about for ages... and then there's John Wall, who's solid in the post and hits the three well enough to space the floor for veterans like Kevin Love, John Wall, Luke Ridnour, and that newcomer from the Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Barea. It feels like enough depth to secure a win against the Bucks tonight, and I think that handicap is a safe bet. Meanwhile, Milwaukee hasn't really bolstered their roster—it's still mostly Monta Ellis and Andrew Bogut. Both teams are playing their second game in two nights, which is always a grind. The Timberwolves just came off a loss to one of the heavy favorites, the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the Bucks struggled through a rough outing against the Charlotte Bobcats. Even though they're at home, I don't see Milwaukee keeping pace with this Minnesota squad... they look like a legitimate threat for a deep run in a crowded Western Conference.

That's my play too... Minnesota takes it today. They just seem much more cohesive than the Bucks...

Bryan Adams6 said:@Keith Moore21/">@@Keith Moore21, take a look at the League Pass footage of the Brooklyn Nets against Washington, D.C. last night—specifically that first half... once you see how much of a mess that was, you won't be second-guessing whether to put money on Atlanta anymore... 😁

They were down by 37:45 at the half against a much weaker squad than Atlanta... honestly, I’d take the Brooklyn Nets over Atlanta any day, but reality is hitting hard here—it's a 2-point spread and even then, the odds are sitting at 1.55...

Nicholas Chase34 said:Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Rajon Rondo
pick: under 16.5 points @ 1.85 DraftKings ☕

Pierce isn't in Boston tonight... I have a feeling they'll push past 16.5 regardless—probably landing closer to 20...

Here is what I'm looking at today: Deron Williams over 22.5 @ 1.85
Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves spread -2 - 1.85
Grevis Vasquez under 18.5 @ 1.85

James Taylor3 said:You're talking nonsense here. Sure, it's possible Deron Williams might score more than he did in previous seasons—but don't you think the oddsmakers will just adjust the lines to match his actual production?

No player ever hits the over in 90% of their games... and Deron certainly won't be the exception. ☕

And besides, a player can hit the over on points, but they aren't going to hit the over on the odds themselves.

I know they'll adjust... but even if he drops thirty-plus in two straight games, they aren't just going to set his line at 29.5... and as for that bit about the odds, yeah, I messed that one up. 😢
As for that 90% thing, I was thinking about the stretch before Brook Lopez returns... so maybe something like 15 games...

Honestly, this season, Deron Williams is going to hit the over on his point totals about 90% of the time... I don't see anyone else on that roster capable of carrying the scoring load—he’s basically going to have to drag the whole team along on his back just to stay competitive.

Brian Campbell36 said:Since the era of Michael Schumacher, no one has swept the competition quite like this.
If Sebastian Vettel manages to secure a third consecutive title, then we must extend our utmost respect to Red Bull and the tactical genius pulling all the strings behind the scenes.
While watching the rest of the field battle for a podium finish can be engaging, my true interest lies in observing how the drivers contend for those crucial 25 points at the top spot.
In this scenario, Vettel takes pole position (though even if he starts second in a worst-case case, Mark Webber would likely drop three spots 😕)
Between DRS (which essentially facilitates artificial overtaking) and the Goodyear tires, we should see a much more intense struggle for first place. However, I find myself agreeing with your thesis: who can blame them if they simply failed to harness the absolute potential of their cars?
The "big teams" have been complaining about "excessive front wing flexibility," but a master craftsman, finely tuning his craft, simply engineered it to perform at its peak.

If the rules hadn't shifted in 2009... if they hadn't introduced those cost-cutting measures... Red Bull might have been lucky to settle for third at best. It would have just been a straight fight between Ferrari and McLaren...