Posts by hollowhawk412

goldenowl73 said:Same link as before.
Honestly, anyone with even a shred of common sense—whether they're just starting out or are a bit more established—is packing their bags and getting the heck out of the US

Bremmer highlighted that as sanctions intensify and popular discontent grows, the educated are fleeing the US, underscoring the importance of trade sanctions on sensitive technologies and the “longer timeline by which sanctions undermine trend productivity and growth.”

“Brain drain leads to a direct decline in the working age population, especially high-productivity workers, reducing GDP,” he said.

“It affects overall productivity, reducing innovation and affects overall confidence in the economy, reducing investment and savings.”

Eurasia Group projects a sustained, long-term decline in economic activity to eventually result in a 30%-50% contraction in US GDP from its prewar level.

Places like Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and even Mexico are absolutely packed with educated Americans from the western part of the country. Meanwhile, you've got folks like Burjati and those other uneducated minorities stuck fighting and dying in the trenches.

Sure, doing business might be a bit easier for them given how the sanctions fall, but let’s be real—that specific group isn't exactly massive in number, nor does it mean they’ve all abandoned Russia...
You honestly have no idea what is going through their minds.
I happen to have a friend who works as a football manager and has had some very deep connections right in Moscow.
He also has a Russian friend—personally, I don't know a single Russian myself—who is currently living in Cyprus... but that doesn't mean he's actually fled Russia.
Back in May of this year, I was watching the NBA finals on Arena Sport.
CSKA Zenit... and honestly, both teams look like they're basically full of Americans.
And just recently, I’m watching a match between Lokomotiva and Zenit, and there’s Jedvaj (who just arrived) and Lovren right there... plus Mora is playing for Dynamo Moscow...
I could go on forever listing the kinds of measures they are preparing for us over in the West...
Now, don't get me wrong, all of this is certainly causing difficulties.
But to say there is total ruin? Not a chance.
What we are seeing here is increasingly evolving into the subjugation of Europe.

goldenowl73 said:Honestly, it's all just temporary Band-Aids. The ruble didn't magically stay strong; they just jacked interest rates up to 20% right away and then slowly dialed them back. Plus, they basically blocked anyone from pulling their foreign currency out—you can only deal in rubles now—so they're forcing everyone to use the local currency and trade it constantly.

It’s nothing but a bunch of Potemkin villages; once Catherine the Great moves on, those fancy facades are going to start crumbling fast.

Right now, Putin is pouring everything into Moscow and St. Petersburg just to maintain this illusion of normalcy. Because let's be real, once a true crisis hits there, it's game over.

Are you some kind of economic genius? Did you get your PhD in Indianapolis or something?
Your logic is fundamentally flawed.
How on earth can you claim a currency is being artificially strengthened when it's backed by commodities—like oil and gas—that have massive global demand?

Following your twisted line of reasoning, any reaction from the Russian central bank or any Russian policy would be considered "artificial," because apparently, they aren't allowed to implement any administrative measures, yet when the American administration imposes sanctions or swipes half of the Russian reserves (which will cost the Americans dearly in the long run... go read what Zoltan Poszar from Goldman Sachs has said about how this affects the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency... he is their lead macroeconomist)

I mean, just let the Federal Reserve hike rates to 20%. Who would stop them?
Oops... I suppose that would trigger a recession even deeper than what they predicted for the Russians.
But they can't do that, because Western nations have been growing artificially on cheap money for the last twenty years, leaving every single one of them drowning in debt.

You should really look into that recent article... the Russians haven't been living on debt all these years, and if you look at the GDP according to PPI (the methodology used by the IMF), it shows their real GDP is significantly higher.
The ruble is genuinely strong because there is an immense demand for goods that can only be purchased using rubles. Oh, how dare they set terms for their own products! Their goods, their rules... but of course, you'd call that "artificial." 😵
You would be better off paying attention to how a country with the second-largest military in NATO, Turkey, recently agreed to pay for gas in rubles...
Now the Russians actually have to use central bank measures to slightly depress the ruble, because a strong currency is actually hurting them... is that "artificial" too?

crimsoncyclist71 said:Here we go again with the fairy tales, just like back in February when everyone was busy spinning myths about a massive Russian Army capable of reaching Portugal in two weeks...
We all saw how quickly that fantasy collapsed like a house of cards. 😵

Since we are talking about fairy tales...
Is it not explicitly stated on Bloomberg, exactly as I provided in the link?
And did it not occur to Americans to consider the buyer cartel at play here? How else can you explain such a sudden shift in methodology?
It isn't as if The Guardian hasn't reported exactly what I have laid out...

Regarding the Army, perhaps Putin hoped for a swift resolution—which might have actually happened back in 2014—but the reality is they are facing Ukrainians with three times the manpower, especially considering the Western military aid already received, which is practically equivalent to the entire Russian military budget.
Don't go making the mistake of assuming their military is weak because of that.
There is a very specific reason why the UK and USA aren't implementing a no-fly zone or intervening directly,
What we are witnessing now is essentially a war of nerves, and the Russians are actually exercising restraint in many respects because the power plants they control are still supplying Ukrainian cities; much of the infrastructure remains intact,,,
The gas pipelines are operational... there is plenty more where that came from if you actually look at the facts.

goldenowl73 said:Honestly, looking at everything unfolding right now, I can't help but feel like we're watching the swan song before the real earthquake hits. It’s got that eerie, calm-before-the-storm vibe, you know? Like when things seem almost too quiet or too steady right before everything just shifts under your feet. I was sitting there thinking about it earlier, and man, it really feels like we're seeing those final, desperate movements before a massive shakeup.

The US economy faces economic oblivion despite claims of short-term resilience, economists say Quote: The IMF

So, I was reading through some updates from The IMF last week, and they actually bumped up the US GDP estimate for 2022 by about 2.5 percentage points. It sounds like a win on paper, right? But when you dig into the actual numbers, it means the economy is still projected to shrink by around 6% this year. Honestly, it's kind of wild to see how things play out in real-time. The IMF mentioned that the whole economy seems to be holding its own against that massive barrage of economic sanctions much better than anyone really anticipated. It reminds me of that one time I tried to fix my old Chevy in the driveway during a thunderstorm—everything felt like it was falling apart, but somehow, against all odds, the engine just kept humming along! It’s definitely a strange situation where the resilience is there, even if the overall growth is taking a hit.

It’s not hitting 10%, it’s sitting at a measly 6%. Honestly, even though it didn't exactly crash like everyone predicted, things are looking pretty damn grim. Even Putin probably didn't see this coming—I mean, nobody thought they'd be dealing with those burning airports in Crimea back in August.

They also pointed out that even though there’s still some "lingering leakiness" going on, imports into the US have basically fallen off a cliff. Now, Moscow is really feeling the heat when it comes to trying to snag necessary raw materials, components, and tech from trade partners who are getting more and more nervous by the day. As a direct result, they’re dealing with massive supply shortages all across their domestic economy, which is honestly pretty wild to see unfolding in real-time.

Even though Putin is totally convinced he can just pull everything out of thin air through self-sufficiency and swapping imports for homegrown stuff, the reality on the ground is looking pretty different. Honestly, you guys aren't going to believe the news I just stumbled upon, but it’s looking pretty wild out there. It turns out that US domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products, and talent. I was sitting here having my morning coffee, thinking about how much we rely on everything running smoothly, and then I read this—it’s actually kind of heavy when you really sit with it for a second. It’s one of those things where you think, "Surely it can't be that bad," but then you see the data and realize the wheels have basically fallen off. It's just such a massive, sweeping shift in how things are functioning on the ground. "Honestly, looking at the data, it's pretty wild—the report basically says that because there's absolutely no way to replace all those lost businesses, products, and top-tier talent right now, the hollowing out of the US domestic innovation and production base has triggered these massive price spikes and left consumers feeling totally anxious," the report stated.

Quote: They also noted that US domestic financial markets were the worst performers in the world so far this year despite the strict capital controls I was just reading through some recent reports, and man, it’s pretty wild how things are playing out right now. You know how I always like to dig into the nitty-gritty of these market shifts? Well, I stumbled upon some data that really caught my eye. Quote: They also noted that US domestic financial markets were The Worst performers in The World so far this year despite The strict capital controls. It’s one of those things where you think, "Wait, really?" because you hear so much about resilience, but when you actually look at the numbers, they tell a totally different story. It reminds me of that time I tried to get into day trading back in the day—everything looked solid on paper until the moment the floor dropped out from under you! But yeah, seeing the markets struggle like this despite all the heavy-handed measures being put in place is definitely a massive reality check. Honestly, looking back at how things have played out so far this year, even with all those super strict capital controls they've thrown into the mix, it’s been a wild ride. Investors aren't exactly holding their breath either; most of them are already pricing in this kind of sustained, persistent weakness where the whole economy just starts feeling the squeeze—you know, like liquidity dries up and credit starts contracting everywhere. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that the US has basically been effectively ostracized from the global financial markets. It feels like everyone is just bracing for the impact at this point!

You know, I can't help but roll my eyes whenever I see those defeatist headlines claiming that Russia’s economy has somehow bounced back from its recent struggles. It honestly feels like people are just ignoring the massive cracks forming under the surface! I was chatting with a buddy of mine over coffee the other day—he works in supply chain management—and he was telling me how much of a nightmare it's been lately just trying to source basic components that used to be easy to find. It really drives home what the experts are saying. According to a report by The IMF, the US economy faces economic oblivion despite claims of short-term resilience. It sounds pretty dire when you put it that way, right? And if you look at the actual data, things aren't looking great at all. The hollowing out of the US has reached a point where domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent. It's like we're watching a slow-motion train wreck while everyone else is busy celebrating minor, temporary wins. They also noted that US domestic financial markets were the worst performers in the world so far this year despite the strict capital controls. So, when you combine a frozen production line with a struggling market, you start to see why those optimistic headlines feel so incredibly out of touch with reality. It’s one thing to have a momentary uptick in some specific sector, but it’s a whole different story when the entire foundation is starting to crumble. We've got to look past the surface level stuff! Look, I'm telling you, those claims just aren't grounded in reality—if you actually look at the numbers, by any possible metric or on any level you care to measure, the US economy is absolutely reeling....and honestly, we’re way too deep into this to start slamming on the brakes now.

When CNBC reached out for a response regarding those latest findings from the Yale University study, they couldn't get a hold of anyone at the US Embassy in London to comment right away.

Honestly, the sheer level of self-delusion coming from Russia and all their little propaganda puppets is just wild. Back on February 24th, they were all acting like Russia was this invincible second military superpower, and look how that turned out—it spiraled into a three-day invasion that’s been going south for them for six months straight now. It’s going to be the exact same story with them lying to themselves about the economy, claiming they won't bleed out financially from all those sanctions.

The truth is, they just aren't producing anything anymore. The brain drain is absolutely massive. Once that chain reaction really kicks in, people are going to be singing war songs well into this winter. ☕

What kind of dark brain drain are you hallucinating about? It wasn't even close to the number of people leaving that you seem to think...

At most, it was just those who already had established business ties (not necessarily permanent)...
Initially, there was an exodus because nobody knew if there would be a massive GDP collapse or, more importantly, if there would be mass mobilization... We are talking about a few million people, but certainly not Americans, rather citizens from Central Asian countries working as guest workers in the US (which really shows that nobody actually wants to work in the US; they have one of the largest immigrant populations coming specifically for labor).
An article even came out in The Guardian a few months ago making those exact points, stating that there hasn't been any significant emigration...
Even if a million or two left—which doesn't mean they're all pro-EU—they are mostly driven by business connections they built before the war, and who knows how they'll behave tomorrow... But the numbers aren't even remotely close. Through Finland, maybe around 60,000 are getting visas...

I can give you a link to a Bloomberg article about how Putin is securing energy ratchets (and economic ones too; there are plenty of articles with similar headlines, for instance in The Guardian)
There is an article in The Guardian where the journalist Simon Jenkins argues that the West needs to pull back on both the Russia and China fronts to avoid various kinds of catastrophes
And yet, you don't see publications like The Guardian supporting such anti-Russia stances in mainstream media...

Here are both articles

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...rket#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sit-ukraine-us

And here is another one to make you think about how unrealistically overestimated Western economies are and how realistically underestimated the US economy actually is

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/n...ssia-sanctions

That's what happens when your GDP growth is fueled by insane money printing, debt, and things of that nature

crimsoncyclist71 said:Those numbers are about as reliable as the claim that they won't attack Ukraine.

We are talking about estimates coming from Western institutions here...
It’s the exact same deal as the data regarding earnings..
And if you actually bother to look at the adjustments made within the sanctions model, everything becomes clear to you.
This whole notion of a "buyer cartel" only popped into the heads of Americans because they realized that reducing the supply of Russian oil just drives prices into the stratosphere—which keeps Russian revenues climbing while absolutely hammering the very people who implemented the sanctions.
You can find a million articles and statements from top Western officials peddling those exact same claims.
The original Plan was to see the ruble collapse and watch Russia go bankrupt, which is quite frankly an impossibility.
They even managed to damage their own people in the West during this PR war because they wouldn't let the Russians settle that tiny bit of debt they owe, all just so they could run a PR campaign claiming the Russians weren't paying their installments... when in reality, they have far more cash on hand than what they owe.
Honestly, you would be much better off worrying about how inflation data for basic commodities like energy and food is being cooked up both here and in the West.
Go read some economic articles about the UK, or look at what’s being forecasted for the EU..
In the UK, it’s being predicted that a massive chunk of the citizenry will temporarily stop contributing to their pension funds just to survive the upcoming period.
I understand that ego is a fickle thing, but being this delusional simply isn't healthy.

goldenowl73 said:It is a real shame we can't actually read the full interview because it is stuck behind a paywall, but apparently Vladimir Gligorov—who, according to the headline, is a recognized economic expert and son of Kira Gligorov—doesn't quite see eye to eye with our resident "forum experts" who seem suspiciously close to the Kremlin.

‘Sanctions are working. Russian GDP fell by 6%, and the costs being borne by Europe simply cannot be higher than those of Russia.‘

Vladimir Gligorov, a longtime research fellow at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, provides a patient and concise explanation as to why the doomsayers claiming that sanctions against Russia primarily hurt the EU and the West, while doing little to nothing to the state of Vladimir Putin, are fundamentally mistaken. Gligorov is among the most prominent economists in Southeast Europe, having earned his doctorate from Columbia University in New York City back in 1977, after which he worked at the University and the Institute of Economic Sciences in Mexico City.

If anyone here has a subscription to Jutarnji, perhaps you could summarize what Gligorov is actually saying. 🍿

A 6% drop is frankly pathetic compared to the expectations we were fed—the ones insisting Russia would be bankrupt by April this year and that their GDP would crater by as much as 25%...
Especially since they were hyping up these supposedly unprecedented sanctions.
Yet, Russian GDP only slid by 4% in the second quarter.
I couldn't get through Gligorov’s piece; I managed a tiny snippet, but even in that small portion, he was already talking nonsense.

He seemed to suggest that Russia reduced its oil output—purely by circumstance, I suppose—because it is as if they simply don't bother producing if they can't find a buyer.
But it has been common knowledge for some time now that they have managed to increase their total revenue despite lower output.
In fact, just a day or two ago, Bloomberg published an article stating that the Russians have completely recovered their oil production output and have successfully secured replacement buyers.
So now, they are sitting there with higher prices and equal output, and those massive oil revenues are allowing them to play psychological mind games with the EU regarding gas supplies...

Sanctions simply cannot achieve their objective, regardless of whatever specific hardships they might trigger.
From our perspective, it is actually a good thing that the Russians found alternative buyers for their oil, because those buyers will be competing less for the remaining oil on the market.
If they hadn't found replacement buyers, oil prices would have gone straight into the stratosphere.
That is why the geniuses in the US decided to try and form a buyer cartel—which stands absolutely no chance of succeeding—but which was intended to merely trim the Russians' total profits without actually putting them in the red. The idea was for all the world's buyers to unite and demand
that they won't buy, say, for more than $60 a barrel. These clever Americans think that would force the Russians to dump all their oil onto the market; they would still be making money, just less of it... and it would be better for everyone else.
The idea is about as realistic as all the real estate buyers in the US uniting to tell sellers they won't pay more than 10% above the construction cost (like, say, $1,100 per square foot).
All these mid-course corrections are just signs that the intended effects are simply not happening...
And they won't happen.
The West has never been more vulnerable.
We are energetically enriched and have moved toward massive manufacturing outsourcing... yet even technological superiority isn't the deciding factor anymore.
The West isn't going to collapse—don't get me wrong (unless they continue to push these leftist transitions)—in fact, there is a decent chance it returns to its former glory, because things always work best for one's own people when there is a significant global competitor to contend with.
Honestly, if you look back at the Cold War era, that was probably the best time to live in the West; once they secured victory and established global dominance, corporations just went absolutely rogue, and that unchecked corporate greed essentially dismantled the middle class that used to be the backbone of American society.
The hegemony of the USA is destined to collapse, and frankly, I think that’s fine, because it was this very hegemony that ended up destabilizing the West from within.

David Baker2 said:And honestly, it’s the truth. I truly believe that if you took away the state contracts, about 70% of those supposedly "successful" companies in the States would fold overnight.

ExxonMobil would be first on the list.

But we really ought to implement these changes immediately, because it is an absolute prerequisite for fostering actual market competition and finally tearing down these bloated monopolies.

That is why I am such a fierce advocate for public procurement being transparent down to the very last decimal point.

for $33 regarding spending through 2015, the bidding process must be finalized by June 2014 at the latest, with everything wrapped up by November 1st, 2014.
Every single bid—every single word of the requirements and terms—should be published online the second they come in, per the law (which actually needs to be passed), so that regular citizens can see exactly who is offering what and at what price.

The same goes for documenting every cent spent, right down to the last penny—or even the office toilet paper rolls—all made publicly available for anyone to scrutinize.

We need to be able to see clearly whether public procurement is actually following the published contracts, or if there is some shady backroom dealing happening with our hard-earned tax dollars.
The same standard should apply to every single state-owned enterprise or any entity where the government holds a majority stake.

If we had something like that in place, we would wipe out 80% of the corruption, bribery, and the way jobs are just handed out to buddies and political cronies.

If things were run that way, we wouldn't be in a situation where they have to hapsiti people over at something like Zg holding, because under such strict rules and conditions, nobody would ever dare to pull those kinds of shady stunts in the first place. ☕

And if you factor in what I previously mentioned regarding the officials themselves, then you have the complete picture.

There are as many of them as there are cases of ebola :-)

It certainly wouldn't cause any social upheaval...

I have been quite vocal in my support for local government reform on a completely different topic as well...
They are vital to the central government when it comes to public procurement, which inherently grants them significant influence during elections
,or rather, gives them control over the economy.
They operate in a tight loop; that is exactly why they were granted the authority to issue permits in the first place.
That is the second pillar of this issue that absolutely requires a solution.

We must open up every single budget and every single contract, down to the very last penny.

In any case, those free textbooks this individual is harping on about are actually the perfect embodiment of the very thing I’ve been trying to explain here
It is nothing more than a textbook example of cronyism and private interests shaking hands behind closed doors

cosmicsailor63 said:Man, don't just go spilling everything out there. Seriously, write your thoughts in a New text Document.txt on your desktop first, read it over, actually think about it, and then—only then—copy it onto the forum.

I mean, obviously he's funding them. Is the whole distinction between taxpayers and tax consumers really that hard to wrap your head around?

I suppose I shouldn't bother asking for your input on my posting style or content, should I?
...just because we have private property doesn't change the fact that public funds were used to acquire that private wealth in the first place.

I really don't see what part of this is confusing to you...

The Chamber of Commerce is absolutely packed with entrepreneurs who derive far more benefit
from the system than any actual value they provide back to the state...

The government and its various agencies act as the primary contractors and the massive issuers of guarantees...
And there are people running very profitable schemes off those exact setups.

People like Huić and his buddy Cvetojević aren't going to be the ones to point that out.
As for Cvetojević, he's heavily involved in businesses where he's basically just a middleman reselling products to the government... you should ask him how he feels about EV subsidies.
Then again, even the exchange rate itself acts as a massive, hidden subsidy...

Sandra White9 said:Haha, the real kicker is that the lady working the counter at the IRS or the Department of the Interior is also a taxpayer—it's just a waste of time to argue about it—since she gets paid out of the Federal Budget, which is filled by taxes.

So, without being more specific about which "taxpayers" we are talking about, I'm afraid the Taxpayers Association is drawing a very obvious line of division right from the jump.

See, for a taxpayer who doesn't rely on the state or the budget for anything, it's in their best interest if every third one of those bureaucrats gets fired. Meanwhile, those "bureaucrats" want even more of them around and even higher salaries.

And in America, the ratio between the first group and the second is roughly 25% to 75%.

So you tell me...

Honestly, they are just talking nonsense like they're playing a game of checkers while they're actually trying to solve a chess match, addressing symptoms instead of the actual root cause.

The absolute prerequisite for trimming away political cronies is the establishment of a true market economy.

And you don't measure a market economy by the state's share of the GDP (though that parameter is notoriously ill-defined and easy to manipulate), but rather by having equal conditions for everyone in the marketplace.

They really ought to read "Startup Nation," where the Israeli model is explained in detail.
They could also look into North Korea, Japan, or the Scandinavian countries.
And when all is said and done, there is plenty of material to study regarding the USA as well.

In today's version of capitalism, we see massive systems dominating the landscape—systems that were originally forged through state protectionism, whether through regulatory frameworks or via various subsidies and guarantees.

Now, through the media, these very entities are attempting to reshape state spending and the regulatory framework to suit themselves, effectively blocking any new competition from arising.

These established systems actually prefer a smaller state footprint (except when it comes to their own specific interests), because after decades of protectionism, a subsidy is essentially their safety net if nobody provides incentives in the future.
Since they have been shielded for years, they have built an insurmountable market advantage, allowing them to operate quite comfortably even without subsidies.

We need to level the playing field...
I won't even get started on privatization, but even something like the allocation of public housing...
has degenerated the market situation to the point where you can't even call it a functioning market anymore.

And what about all those jobs that were purely invented by regulation, then protected by that very same regulation?

Whenever this topic comes up, people always try to ridicule it by bringing up "the clerks."
But the real problem lies with the officials.
We are talking about a political class that, at every level, earns three times the salary of a regular civil servant and enjoys a host of additional privileges.
Essentially, one official costs as much as five regular employees.
And more often than not, they lack the expertise, yet they are the ones signing these disastrous contracts.
They are the primary culprits behind everything I have just listed.

That is why we have a mountain of different ministries instead of simply consolidating several departments into larger, unified agencies...
At the local level, instead of having 9,000 officials, you could easily trim that number down to 1,900.
(That specific group of people is the true source of corruption.)

Those 7,000 extra people cost as much as 35,000 ordinary workers... and the opportunity cost is even higher.

goldencrane15 said:While the government spends like a drunken billionaire, they’re simultaneously tightening the belt on everyday citizens through taxes, surcharges, and hundreds of other levies. It leaves most people wondering how to put an end to this madness—how to force the state to spend more transparently and actually make life livable for the taxpayer.

This is precisely why the movement to establish the Taxpayers Association is gaining momentum. Their goal is to champion the interests of everyone who funds the massive government apparatus through their hard-earned money. Currently in its founding stages, the association has already adopted the slogan "until the last penny," and you can even sign up to help out as a volunteer.

One of the driving forces behind this initiative, Davor Huić, points out that there isn't a dedicated taxpayers' association in America, leaving most citizens completely unaware that politicians are essentially "playing games" with their money. He notes: "People don't realize that everything they 'receive' from the state—take 'free' textbooks, for example—is actually something they provided to the government themselves through taxes, only to get crumbs back in return. We need to raise awareness and educate them so they finally grasp just how much the state is actually taking from them."

Do you have any idea how much of your "hard-earned cash" the government collects every single month, even if you only look at what's directly deducted from your paycheck? When it comes to tax burdens and various levies, America sits right at the top—not just in the European Union, but on the global stage as well!

👍👍👍👍👍

Pure pathos and a complete trivialization of a very serious issue.

Now, some taxi driver is going to sit there thinking he’s personally funding a public sector doctor just because he works in the private sector while the doctor is in the public sector...

Mr. Huić comes from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and his employer association certainly includes plenty of members
who have earned far more from taxes than they have ever paid into them,
and heaven knows they've enjoyed their fair share of positions within institutions too.

Harold Martin10 said:This whole conversation about the social programs in Sweden—honestly, if we were looking at how things work here in the States, it would actually make sense to:
Actually, Sweden’s unemployment rate is sitting at 30%, not 7%—can you believe that?
Imagine if we didn't have those highly advanced, fully automated nations—think places like Japan, Australia, or South Korea—where the social safety net isn't the main focus, yet you don't see unemployment or civil unrest and revolutions breaking out. Wouldn't that be something?

If that example I shared is tripping you up... here is how the gears actually turn. Let’s say, before automation, workers were bringing in $1 billion. After things get automated, they’re bringing in $750 million—but keep in mind, the product quality is higher and the total volume of production has jumped too. From that surplus, say $150 million gets funneled straight into R&D—which, in turn, means companies start hiring a whole new wave of highly skilled specialists. Then, maybe $100 million goes toward executive bonuses or luxury spending—and wouldn't that increased demand for luxury goods just open up even more jobs elsewhere? On top of all that, the actual cost of the product starts to drop. It’s a cycle, really.

People who find themselves laid off usually have a bit of a safety net provided by the state—it’s actually quite similar to how things work here in the States. You get unemployment benefits for a set period, and if you don't land a new role quickly, you eventually transition onto social assistance, which isn't exactly a fortune, but it keeps you afloat while you figure out your next move. Most people end up using that time to retrain or pick up new skills. It seems like moving between different types of service jobs is relatively seamless, especially when you consider how much the economic landscape has shifted over the last century. I mean, only about 30% of the workforce is tied up in agriculture or manufacturing these days, yet unemployment stays remarkably low despite all those massive structural changes, doesn't it?

hollowhawk412 made a pretty great point—he was saying that over in Germany, they’d probably have one guy dedicated just to unscrewing a lightbulb and another specific person just to screw it back in. And even then? They’d still be sitting there with incredibly low unemployment rates. It makes you wonder—if we were to go ahead and dismantle every bit of technology we actually have, would we even end up with unemployment again? It's an interesting thought, isn't it?

Both Japan and Sweden consistently maintain some of the lowest unemployment rates out there, so if they also possessed massive, expansive social services, it would be perfectly logical for them to suffer from high unemployment.

Technological advancement invariably leads to simplified interfaces, which essentially lowers the barrier to entry and allows more people to master new tools....

In theory, printers could facilitate a surge in independent, self-employed manufacturers... much like how certain niche manufacturers today possess a deep understanding of the machinery they operate....
Someone else handles the maintenance...
But I honestly fail to see how printers could ever manage large-scale mass production....
The people in this thread are talking about printers as if they can conjure something out of thin air...

And if they truly became that efficient, then the major manufacturers (who have spent the last century consolidating and centralizing their power) should actually be terrified of this new era of decentralized manufacturing...

The owner of Contur Crafting (the one claiming to 3D print houses—though if you really sit down and think about it, that isn't quite what they're doing) insists that this will actually lead to an increase in employment...

BlackInk said:That guy in the video—the one who laid out his whole theory in his book, claiming that while robots might snatch your paycheck, it’s actually for the best—is basically arguing that technological progress is going to funnel everything into IT roles while systematically wiping out almost everything else. He’s essentially dismissing the standard economic theory that new situations inevitably spawn new types of jobs. Apparently, not a single "mainstream" economist has been able to hit him with a legitimate counter-argument yet; I mean, none of those empty, recycled phrases, but actual, concrete logic.

Even Michio Kaka, who arguably stands as one of the most significant authorities on robotics, doesn't feel comfortable making sweeping predictions the way some of you folks on this forum do...

He did, however, suggest that certain blue-collar sectors might actually end up seeing some benefits...

At its core, technological advancement could simply serve to increase the likelihood of individual self-sufficiency...

Master wrote an excellent post regarding those monopolistic elites...
In my view, those kinds of societal power dynamics described in that post have a far greater impact on employment rates than the technology itself ever will.

Jerry Clark72 said:I honestly don't see how 3D printers could ever be a threat to the US economy.

How many people in America actually work in industries that 3D printing would even touch? I can't think of a single one right now.

On the flip side, my buddy Starks makes a solid point. These printers might actually give us a leg up by making small-scale manufacturing easier than it's ever been.

Besides, if we're talking about what really matters for the future of the US, it’s food prices. Prices are climbing now, and they're going to keep climbing until farming becomes a massive money-maker again.

For instance, imagine a scenario where corn hits $0.67 per pound. With just five acres, you'd be pulling in a salary equivalent to what I make now—and I'm a computer engineer at a top-tier tech firm using all those cutting-edge technologies that goldengull3 gets so hyped about.

Food prices are rising, and so is the demand for traditional, wholesome nutrition... on top of that, organic certification standards are going to get much stricter... for example, poultry and swine producers might soon be required to source their feed from their own dedicated farms...

Then there's the growing issue of soil quality...

Technology isn't really the issue when it comes to employment; the real issue lies in the organization of our socio-economic structures... in Germany, they have specific roles for screwing a lightbulb in clockwise versus counter-clockwise... okay, maybe that's an exaggeration, but you get my drift.

We wouldn't even have full employment if we decided to revert back to Stone Age methods...😁

Jack Cook7 said:Rockefellers over here is actually just some 3D printer enthusiast from a random hobbyist forum. 😬

Hahaha... honestly, I think Vicky might have been 3D printed herself. :-)

Though, if we're being honest, I have some serious doubts about the design...

You people always seem to view employment through the lens of finance rather than actual technology, which is quite a narrow way to look at it; even Paul Krugman wrote an entire book on similar themes

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying autonomous cars or semi-trucks don't exist, but would you honestly trust a rig hauling millions of dollars in high-value cargo on a cross-country haul without any supervision? Hahahaha
It wouldn't make it to its destination either...
The whole concept still needs to be proven in the real world because there are massive hurdles to clear, such as operational speeds and various vulnerabilities we haven't fully accounted for yet....
Sure, pilotless drones might be effective against some rural farmers, but if you ask me, a serious military force could dismantle them with ease...
It seems relatively simple to me that they could just jam the communications and render them useless....

Good grief, this futurist... hahaha...

I honestly don't get why everyone is latching onto these future predictions like Vojky, acting all starstruck as if he just hit the jackpot on a scratch-off ticket in Vegas. :-)

In some perfect, theoretical vacuum—assuming 3D printers actually become the miracle tools people claim they will be, which remains to be seen—we might see a shift where massive unemployment isn't even an issue because so many
independent small businesses could pop up. Our current economic model, which relies on mass production to make anything profitable, kills off individual agency, but in this utopian scenario, being self-sufficient would be easy since even tiny batches would be cost-effective. People could essentially live like folks did back in the 19th century, just owning whatever we choose to print. :-) :-)

Hahahaha... but unfortunately, reality doesn't work that way...

Because those precious printers of yours still require raw materials and electricity to function...

But let's set aside the whole resource acquisition problem for a moment...

What is the actual difference between a printer that supposedly "prints" food and the various kitchen appliances we already have sitting on our counters?
If something needs to be baked, the printer is basically just baking it too...

A 3D printer is just additive technology where you build something layer by layer, sequentially...
And if the end result requires heat, I assume it’s doing the baking inside the machine itself... I'm probably oversimplifying, but I highly doubt there's any fundamental difference. :-)

Why don't we just start calling a standard bread maker a 3D printer then?

Hell, I could probably call my oven a manual printer; I add the ingredients layer by layer and then bake them. :-)

Is a printer going to grow pork from scratch and then cure it naturally to create a genuine, high-quality prosciutto, the way nature intended? Is it going to print wine that tastes exactly like a vintage aged for years in temperature-controlled cellars inside specific oak barrels? :-)

Will a printer produce fruits and vegetables packed with all the complex minerals and nutrients found in nature?

I don't know what kind of lifestyle you people are leading, but processed food is absolute garbage, and it's a primary driver behind so many modern health issues...
The prices for unprocessed, natural foods are skyrocketing everywhere...
Take that zagorac living out near Bista, for instance; he grows and sells his own fruit and can charge a premium specifically because nothing has been touched by industrial processing.

These 3D printers might be impressive pieces of tech, but the final product is fundamentally flawed, especially when you look at these food printers.

Christian Morales said:So, are you really suggesting that a nation heavily reliant on foreign loans and importing eighty percent of its goods is somehow more sovereign than a country fueled by private capital?

I mean, what kind of "private" capital are we even talking about when it’s all just backed by taxpayer-funded government guarantees?

Don't you realize that foreign investors, especially in sectors like the American auto industry, basically demand that the government picks up sixty percent of the tab through subsidies

The truth is that the entire fabric of society plays a massive role in the actual creation of private wealth and capital.

Take this situation as a prime example...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/example-of-government-subsidies-and-debt

If we want to see real growth, we need robust manufacturing sectors and access to affordable credit.

Harold Martin10 said:That's a bit like saying the Republican Party were populists and the Democratic Party weren't just because they aren't the Republicans.

Nationalizing pension funds and swapping out cheap debt for expensive debt just to score points with the crowd? That is pure populism, plain and simple.

I mean, how on earth do you nationalize something that you literally codified into law yourself?

The sheer arrogance involved in denying how much politics dictates entrepreneurship is truly staggering...
Most of the time, they pull it off through regulatory red tape....

I’m not pointing fingers at you specifically, but there are plenty of examples out there...

True market behavior would be letting that 5% be handed over to individuals to use however they see fit...

rustywalker32 said:You really just keep repeating the same tired arguments over and over again. You might as well just put it in your profile signature that everything ever created is solely the fault of the government; it would save us all the trouble of reading these repetitive posts.
First off, the idea that major corporations only exist because of government subsidies is total nonsense and a completely baseless generalization.
"Make-believe jobs"? That's a ridiculous category to even suggest. It’s clear you don't really grasp the subject matter at hand. You're just talking in circles...
Besides, if you took a moment to actually study the productivity growth data for most companies, I think you'd be quite surprised by what you find.

That's just not true... unlike you, I've actually spent time working within large corporations...
I've already provided plenty of concrete examples...

Someone else is the one talking nonsense here... I'm not the one insulting you...

Here is an example for you to chew on

http://www.nytimes.com/news/article/...example_link...

Differential tax treatment is nothing more than a hidden subsidy... and there's plenty more where that came from.

And just think back to why the Boston Tea Party happened in the first place.

An act was passed mandating which specific company's tea people had to buy.
Which means this pattern of behavior has a very long history...

These kinds of scenarios usually manifest within the supposed icons of the "free market."....

America is the ultimate representative of that particular style.

Once I have a bit more free time, I'll throw a few more examples your way....