analoghound21 said:I’ve got a gut feeling that Amar'e isn't going to play a massive role tonight; I’m expecting some light minutes while he just sort of gets his rhythm back with the squad before the playoffs hit, so they probably won't take any big risks
So, here is my play for today...
Boston Under 85.5 @ 1.85 Looking at how they matched up earlier this season, we saw Atlanta beat Boston 79-76 and then a 84-84 tie (which ended up being an 88-86 win for Boston in overtime) It honestly feels like the Celtics have kind of checked out for this one🤷 With guys like Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, KG, Ray Allen, and Rasheed Wallace all sidelined, it's just too much talent to lose if they want to cover a spread like this; I’d actually grab Atlanta +8.5 if it were sitting at @1.85 (but it’s not 😁), because you'd need the Hawks to really dominate to make that work, but even with that thought, I still see value here and I'm sticking with the under I'm looking for a decent showing from Bass and Bradley, but nothing crazy enough to push them past 85 points against an Atlanta team that really needs this win
Golden State Under 93.5 @ 1.85 They’re still missing about half their roster—and I mean the heavy hitters, too 😬—so if the current champs let themselves fall below a margin this low given the circumstances, they honestly shouldn't be called champions anymore☕
We’re basically on opposite sides of the fence regarding Golden State; even though they're shorthanded, the core group is pretty solid. Their offense will likely run through a small-ball lineup, so I'm picturing a style similar to the old Rockets era—lots of quick strikes since most of their scoring comes from the backcourt. To me, this line feels way too low; I was personally expecting something closer to 95.5 or 96.5. Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see who called it right 😍
I’m really feeling Griffin over 20.5 points @ 2.20 odds
I mean, look, the Suns basically have the worst interior defense in the league right now; guys like Frye, Lopez, and Morris just aren't cutting it defensively, and they're pretty much relying on Gortat to bail them out in the paint.
Even though Griffin hasn't been totally lighting it up lately, he hasn't even crossed this line in his last six games, so I see this as the perfect setup for him to boost those averages given who they're playing against.
Honestly, this specific line is really just a byproduct of how he's played over the last couple of outings, so I think it's worth taking a little swing at it with a small unit. If I were picking a safer number, I'd say 21.5 at 1.85/1.85 odds would be the move.☕
It looks like Kevin Love might be sitting this one out against the Clippers tonight.
Kevin Loveis downgraded to expected to miss Thursday vs. the Clippers.
Honestly, I feel like it’s about time the Clippers finally get a win over the Timberwolves, especially since Minnesota has already knocked them around three times this season—but man, I really doubt they’re going to sweep the floor with them if they're missing Love from the starting lineup.
There’s even a chance we see Mo Williams back in action for the visitors. Mo Williamsis upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Minnesota
The Clippers haven't suffered through four straight losses to Minnesota since that brutal nine-game slide stretching from mid-January 2003 to late December 2004, so they’ll definitely be hungry to snap this streak and grab their 10th win in the last 12 games.
Los Angeles (35-23) is still holding onto that slim half-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies for the fourth seed and that sweet home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, following their tight 100-98 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday.
Paul sat out their first matchup against Minnesota, but he usually brings the heat, averaging 21.3 points against the Timberwolves, which ties for his third-highest scoring average against any team in his career.
Nicholas Chase34 said:Watch out for those Celtics!! 🧐
They played a total grind of a game last night against the Miami Heat, shooting a massive 60% from the field, so I honestly think this is the perfect setup for a classic letdown performance on their end. Usually, the Celtics are 6-11 ATS when they're playing back-to-back, which is a pretty huge red flag that they struggle to find their rhythm the day after a big outing. This is actually their fourth game in just five days, too. On top of that, they've got five games coming up in the next six days, which is definitely going to have Doc Rivers scratching his head about rotation management. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks are coming into this one feeling super fresh since they had three full days off, which is a luxury given how crazy busy the schedule has been lately. I know most people are probably riding with Boston today because they've been looking so sharp, especially after crushing it last night, but my gut is telling me something else. I really think Atlanta is going to put up a hell of a fight, so I'm going to side with DJ Augustin and the crew here—they've shown a few times recently that they can definitely hang with the big boys.☕
They had a massive grind against the Miami Heat last night, shooting an incredible 60% from the field, and honestly, that feels like the perfect recipe for a total letdown tonight. If you look at the numbers, the Celtics tend to be 6-11 ATS when they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back, which is a pretty clear signal that they struggle to find their rhythm right after a big game. This is actually their fourth game in just five days, too. Plus, they’ve got five games lined up over the next six days, so I bet Doc Rivers is really sweating the rotation right now. On the flip side, Atlanta is coming into this one feeling super fresh since they actually had three full days off, which is huge given how hectic the schedule has been lately. I know most people are going to jump on Boston today because they've been looking unstoppable, especially after that win last night, but my gut is telling me something different. I think Atlanta is going to put up a serious fight here, so I'm going to follow the lead of guys like Johnson and the crew, who have shown a few times recently that they can definitely hang with the big boys.☕
Alright folks, here is the updated plan for tonight! Orlando (spread -8.5) vs. Detroit 2 @ 1.85 Memphis vs. L.A. Clippers 1 @ 1.55 Indiana vs. Toronto Raptors 1 @ 1.20
Here is my little parlay combo to chase some wins: Griffin B. (DK) vs. Lee D. 2 @ 1.85 Minnesota (KI) vs. Phoenix Suns 2 @ 1.62 Utah vs. San Antonio Under 209.5 @ 1.70 Milwaukee vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 2 @ 1.70 Let's aim for 3/4 or even a clean 4/4!
I’m hearing Duncan probably won't see any floor tonight, since Gregg tends to lean heavily on resting his veterans during those back-to-back stretches, likely saving him up for Wednesday's matchup against the Lakers. Honestly, Jazz's backcourt is one of the rougher units in the league—they really got dismantled by Parker and Ginobili last night. It’s not exactly shocking when you consider they're running guys like Harris and C.J. Miles, who are pretty much bottom-tier defenders when it comes to isolation plays or pick-and-roll coverage; Alec Burks is basically the lone bright spot on the defensive end. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a total repeat of how much damage the Spurs' guards did last game, so I'm feeling good about taking Parker's over 17.5 @ SS ☕
Monroe under 15.5 @ Favorite (facing Howard, playing away, they've been stuck under that mark in their last three matchups, hitting 4, 7, and 10 points respectively)
So, we finally wrapped things up over at the DraftKings sportsbook: Derozan I'm thinking we're looking at something under 17.5. Evans It looks like we're looking at numbers north of 16.5 now! I haven't seen any posts from Jamison yet! Man, if you're looking at anything over 17.5, you're definitely playing in the big leagues now. Pierce I'm thinking we're looking at a number somewhere under 20.5, probably. 😲 Man, I'm honestly just glad I caught that before it was too late.
The boundaries are actually laid out pretty perfectly. 😁
Pierce under 19.5 (he was rolling pretty high against the Warriors last time out, but I’m feeling a totally different vibe this time around)
Jamison over 17.5 (with Kyrie sitting this one out, he’s definitely going to have to carry more weight, especially since the Nets are pretty much a sieve when it comes to defending the post)
The Celtics are in a total mess right now. Tomorrow they will play without Giannis (final 11 p), James (15p +1 final goal), Chavez (def 19p), Wait (final 6p), Johnson (def 14p), Sobolewski (mid 7p), Boguski (6p +1 att goals). Doubtful is Durant (15p +3 att goals). Some rumors are even floating around that Dud Biton (23p +11 Topscorer goals) won't suit up either. Basically, the Current Champions of USA play without any motivation. It feels like most of players has knowledge that they will not play in next season in Lakers, so they really have nothing to play for in the NBA. Plus, in few days they will play more important match in the Cup against Bulls, which is their absolute last chance to gain Champions League next season. As for the home side, the coach is dealing with a couple of holes in the lineup tomorrow too: Frankowski (att 22p+12gol topscorer) and Porebski (def 10p+1gol)
I'm leaning towards a home win, but honestly, since they're missing their top scorer and both teams tend to play such a gritty, defensive style, we could easily see an under here.
07.04. 18:00, Portland Timbers vs. Atlanta United, tip: 2 @ 1.90, FanDuel
So, looking at the Portland Timbers right now, they’re basically staring down the barrel of relegation with just 13 points under their belt, sitting at a shaky 2-4-16 record and a goal differential of 17:44. They’re trailing behind teams like Austin FC, who are currently holding onto those spots that lead into the relegation playoffs. Honestly, it feels like Portland might just be outclassed for this level, and if you ask me, dodging the drop to a lower division is going to be an uphill battle, though there’s still plenty of games left on the calendar to see if they actually have the grit to stay up. Looking at their recent run, they’ve stumbled through seven losses in their last eight matches, with their lone win being a gritty 3-2 victory over Austin—one of their direct rivals in the fight to stay afloat. Most of their points come against bottom-tier squads, usually resulting in nothing more than a draw. On the flip side, you’ve got a pretty steady Atlanta United squad hanging out right in the middle of the pack with 40 points, boasting a 12-4-6 record and a respectable 34:28 goal difference. They’re about 7 points away from those European qualification spots, so while the math makes it a bit of a long shot, hey, hope springs eternal, right? They’re pretty balanced regardless of where they play, picking up two more points at home than they do on the road (21/19), and their away record sits at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. They’ve been playing decent lately too, grabbing two wins and a draw in their last five outings, despite two slips along the way. They’re a solid outfit that generally handles teams at the bottom of the table, like Portland, with ease. Just a little heads-up, Major League Soccer tends to favor the heavy hitters quite a bit; the top eight teams almost always take care of business against the bottom eight. If you crunch all the numbers—their current form, home versus away splits, and overall season stats—you’d figure Atlanta is about a 62% favorite to walk away with the win, which would normally put the odds around 1.61. But since we’re seeing a juicy 1.90 on them here, I just have to jump on it, especially since the odds for an away win seem to be sliding down already.
Just some fun picks made with a bit of 😬 intuition : Dallas vs. Portland going under 192.5 Bargnani to go over 20.5 San Antonio vs. New Orleans looking like an under 195.5 Milwaukee staying under 107.5 Westbrook vs. Nowitzki take the 1
4:00 PM, Watford vs. Blackpool, pick: both teams to score @ 1.70, DraftKings
Watford is absolutely rolling right now, honestly they haven't tasted defeat in their last seven outings, pulling off five wins in that stretch alone. They've been playing with such high energy that they've managed to claw back within six points of that playoff promotion zone. Right now, they're sitting at 11th place with a record of 15-12-13 and a goal difference of 48:55. What's cool is they play just as well whether they're at home or traveling. On the flip side, you've got Blackpool sitting in 5th, and while they haven't been looking too flashy lately, they just came off a massive 3-0 statement win against top-tier Southampton. Blackpool is definitely a different beast when they're playing in their own backyard compared to when they're on the road. Watford tends to play a really wide-open, attacking style at home—you can see that in the stats, since 12 of their 20 home games have gone over, whereas they've only seen 7 overs in their 20 away matches.
When they're playing at home, Watford almost always finds a way to concede, having kept a clean sheet only three times in their last 20 home matches. Meanwhile, Blackpool is basically the king of high-scoring games; out of their 20 away trips, a whopping 16 ended with over 2.5 goals. They're super consistent at finding the back of the net (scoring in 16 out of 20 games), but the trade-off is they give up chances constantly, failing to keep a shutout in all but two of those away games. In fact, right before they faced Southampton, Blackpool was riding a crazy streak of 14 straight games where both sides scored. Since both these squads love to play aggressive, offensive football and tend to leave gaps in defense—especially given the venue—and seeing how their head-to-head history is usually loaded with goals, betting on both teams to score feels like a total no-brainer.
8:00 PM, Troyes vs. Le Havre, pick: 1 @ 2.05, Pinnacle
So, Troyes is basically knocking on the door of the big leagues right now, sitting just one step away from promotion in fourth place with 47 points, trailing Clermont by just a single point. With eight rounds left on the clock, every little win feels like gold if they want to keep that promotion dream alive. What’s really cool about them is how much they own their home turf; they’ve pulled in more than half their total points (31) there, rocking a record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses with a pretty healthy +10 goal difference. Their recent form isn't exactly explosive, but they’ve been holding their own lately, picking up 2 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss over their last six outings. They'll be missing some key pieces though, as Blondel (GK), Outrebon (DF), Camara (FW, 3 goals), and Obbadi (MF, 3 goals) are all sidelined with long-term injuries.
On the flip side, you’ve got Le Havre, who are hanging out near the bottom of the table and fighting tooth and nail just to stay in this division. They’re currently sitting in 15th place with 36 points, which puts them three points clear of the relegation danger zone. When they play at home, they are absolute tanks—they’ve only lost once in 15 matches, tallying 5 wins and 9 draws—but man, they struggle when they have to travel. In those 15 away games, they’ve only managed 3 wins and 3 draws against 9 losses, leaving them with a shaky 10:18 goal difference. If you look at their current momentum, it’s looking pretty grim since they haven't tasted a win in their last six matches, which consisted of three home draws and three tough road losses.
Le Havre is going to be feeling the sting in their attack for this one because their two heavy hitters are totally out of commission, Ryan Mendes (9 goals) and Y. Riviere (7 goals), along with their third-choice striker Efoulou (2 goals), their starting keeper Boucher who has been out for a while, and midfielder Julien Francois (23 appearances). Honestly, losing those guys is a massive blow for the visitors. All things considered, Troyes seems to have all the right ingredients to pull this off—home-field advantage, better overall play, fewer major absences, and that huge motivation to climb into the top flight. Getting the home win at 2.05 feels like a sweet bit of value to me.
stormyseal9 said:Nene and Booker are sitting this one out today🤷,and honestly, that’s just how the game goes where you run into these random curveballs like an injury, some personal stuff, or just someone having an off night, but man, you just can't see those coming😕,it's been like that lately—you're either getting burned during the regular season or you're just white-knuckling it until the playoffs🤷
I haven't been checking in on the NBA as much lately, mostly just popping in when there's some big breaking news, and I've actually been shifting my focus over to MLB, which I'm planning to dive into a lot deeper from here on out.
Looking at the NBA slate today, there are some pretty solid picks floating around, like taking the over on Mel at 23.5 or hitting the under on Pierce at 19.5 🙂
Hey guys, just a heads-up on Monroe—only grab him if Nene isn't in the lineup. In that last game, a Brazilian player absolutely shut him down, and honestly, there's a real chance he gets caught up in foul trouble early on, much like what we saw during that match.