Posts by stormyharbor13

Saturday, July 18th.

20:30 MLS Matchup: Seattle Sounders vs. FC Cincinnati 1 SS@1,50 (1-2)
The league leaders kick off their season at home against Cincinnati, who finished 8th last year.
Following their recent win, Seattle can probably afford to stay composed and push for all three points here. A strong start matters, especially since last season featured a long, drawn-out title race involving LAFC and Columbus Crew.
I wouldn't call this a lock, given they’ve drawn three of their last four matches, but they have the better squad and the home advantage. It seems worth backing Seattle for the season opener.

21:00 LA Galaxy vs. LAFC 1X SS@1,50 (1-1)
The Galaxy looked like a decent side in their match against Portland.
They managed a 0-0 draw and didn't just park the bus as many expected.
LAFC lost their home game against Atlanta, so they might struggle to find a win here as well.
After that first round result, where they were arguably unlucky, the Galaxy seem to have some confidence. I guess they are closer to a victory than a defeat today, and I don't see them losing.

Total slip: 2.25

3/7 ; 1.467

Europa League Qualifiers, 2nd Round
Thursday, 07.16.

16:45 Kairat Almaty - Alashkert 1 SS@1,30 (3-0)
Even though the Armenian side pulled an upset against the Scots in the first round, Kairat is an ascending club with significant investment and a large budget, making them heavy favorites in this matchup.
Their stands were packed during the match against Red Star, and I expect similar turnout today; a comfortable win seems likely.

19:00 Koper - Hajduk Hajduk scores a goal SS@1,25 (3-2)
Frequent defensive lapses and instability might make this one unpredictable, but Hajduk looks decent moving forward; they managed a goal in the derby and scored six previously in their away fixture.
There will be plenty of traveling fans providing strong support here.
I won't commit to a straight win, but I expect one or two goals from the visitors against the Canadians.

19:00 AIK - Shirak f+2 SS@1,50 (2-0)
Shirak barely scraped through against Zrinjski, narrowly avoiding a loss after trailing 2-0.
AIK is a much more serious outfit with high ambitions in these qualifiers, especially when playing at home.
I anticipate at least 2-3 goals from them, which should be enough for the handicap.
The visitors might end up like how the Swedish sides performed in the league last weekend.

20:30 Vojvodina - Spartaks 1 SS @1,25 (3-0)
Vojvodina dominated their series against MTK, putting on a great performance away after a scoreless draw and then coming back at home to score three goals following an early deficit.
The Latvian side Spartaks knocked out Podgorica, but clubs from that region have been known for poor performances lately in this stage of competition.
I expect a 2-3 goal margin here, but to be cautious, I'll stick with a straight win, which shouldn't fail.

21:00 Rijeka - Aberdeen 1 SS @1,50 (0-3)
The odds have climbed nicely to 1,50, so it's worth a look.
Rijeka isn't fully synchronized yet, but the Scottish league starts later, and the Scots looked very weak in their matches against Skendija—essentially second-division level. They progressed after two lackluster draws.
The visitors will probably try to play defensively to grind out a draw, but I doubt they can pull it off.
I expect total dominance from Rijeka; perhaps not a blowout, but a victory, even if just 1-0.

Total slip: 4.57

3/6 ; 1.467

Champions League Qualifiers, 2nd Qualifying Round
Wednesday, 07/15.

19:00 Malmo - Zalgiris 1 SS@1.25 (0-0)
I guess I’m hoping the favorites' odds were already drained by some upsets in this qualifying round yesterday. 🙂
Malmo is a very strong side; they play an aggressive, attacking style of football.
Zalgiris isn't exactly bottom-tier, but they are realistically much weaker than the Swedes. Anything other than a straight win would be a massive surprise.

19:30 BATE Borisov - Dundalk 1 SS@1.45 (2-1)
In my view, there's a very decent value on the home win here.
I might even look at a handicap in this one.
BATE has struggled occasionally in qualifiers lately, but they usually handle tougher opponents through sheer routine and experience.
The Irish side might offer some resistance, but they are ultimately outmatched.
The goal for the Americans remains Champions League qualification, and this hurdle should be relatively easy to clear.
They have already built up a comfortable lead at the top of their domestic league as well.

21:00 Dinamo - Fola Esch 4+ SS@2.00 (1-1)
Two years ago, Dinamo put five past a Luxembourg side, yet they only managed a casual 1-0 at home.
Now, it's the first home leg. The stands will likely be decently filled (though for different reasons this time), and the players are essentially playing for a host in a prison setting—disciplined soldiers under Krznar looking to prove themselves.
The difference in class is negligible, so I expect a total blowout.
Though, seeing how the Danes played yesterday, maybe everyone is playing high-scoring football today. I am picking this strictly because the odds look good compared to a standard handicap.

Total Parlay: 3.62

3/5 ; 1.467

I suppose it doesn't matter, but they probably shouldn't lose to Ventspils 🤷
Skenderbeu already lost at 1.60 odds.

Champions League Qualifiers, 2nd Qualifying Round
Tuesday, 07/14.

5:30 PM Ventspils - HJK Helsinki X2 Double Chance @1.25 (1-3)
Finnish clubs have been performing poorly lately.
Maybe HJK is the only one left with any dignity, and they might actually be worth something.
An away win is possible, I guess, but it seems safer to take the double chance.
HJK is a step above these weak Latvian sides; they probably shouldn't lose this away match.

7:45 PM Ludogorets - Milsami f+2 Double Chance @1.25 (0-1)
Ludogorets is making progress and growing as a club. They seem to be doing a decent job.
The goal this season is reaching the Champions League group stage, or at least the Europa League.
A weak Moldovan side like Milsami shouldn't be much of an obstacle on that path.
Ludogorets dominated their league, whereas Milsami finished level on points with Dacia and Sheriff.

8:00 PM Skenderbeu - Crusaders 1 @1.80 (4-1)
According to Transfermarkt, Skenderbeu is valued at $4.38 million, while Crusaders is only at $140,000.
It's a higher quality club from a better league. Plus, we know how intense the atmosphere gets in Albania and how much home advantage matters, especially now that they've brought in a talented player on loan from Rijeka.
In my view, the odds for a straight win are quite good before they drop.

8:45 PM Partizan - Dila Gori 1 @1.35 (1-0)
Word is Partizan has strengthened their roster; they are a more experienced and better squad.
Dila Gori isn't nothing, though; they've spent a few days in Belgrade to prepare properly for this two-legged tie.
I don't expect a blowout, just a tough game, but ultimately the superior Partizan should win.

Total Odds: 3.79

3/4 ; 1.467
I treated these as singles, since you posted before I announced I was starting the stats.

Europa League, 1st Qualifying Round
Thursday, 07.09.

18:00 Omonia Nicosia - Dinamo Batumi 1st half win @1.20 (2-0)
Omonia is arguably the superior side here—more experienced, deeper roster, and overall more expensive. They are heavy favorites, even though they lost 0-1 in a first leg where they actually controlled much of the play.
I guess I believe in a home win, maybe even advancement.

18:00 Nomme Kalju - Aktobe 1st half win @1.55 (0-0)
In the opening match, Aktobe had over 30 shots, with 10 on target, yet still walked away with a 0-1 loss.
American investors are pouring more money into soccer lately, and this matchup is significant for them.
With that level of dominance and missed opportunities, I suppose it eventually has to pay off.

18:00 Elfsborg - Lahti 1st half win @1.30 (5-0)
During the game in Finland, Elfsborg was clearly better. They led twice but conceded quickly both times, resulting in a 2-2 draw.
They are a class above an average Lahti side. I expect a win via handicap.

19:00 Seattle Sounders - Sillamae Kalev +2 spread @1.70 (6-2)
Too much overthinking, unnecessary solo plays, and a "we've already won" attitude cost the Sounders the first leg. They head back to their home stadium sitting on a slim 1-1 tie.
It will be a different story here. Home field advantage, the atmosphere, and a squad hungry to prove themselves... I suspect the visitors might concede at least 3 or 4 goals.

20:30 Chicago Fire - Domzale 1X 1st half win @1.16 (0-0)
The Chicago Fire could have settled this two-legged tie during the first half of the match in Canada.
They tightened up toward the end, allowing Domzale a chance at a draw, but the visitors showed they are currently the more organized club. They shouldn't blow a 0-1 lead; I'll take the double chance just to be safe.

21:15 St. Louis City SC - Balzan +2 spread @1.35 (1-0)
The modest visitors didn't manage a single shot on goal against St. Louis in the first leg.
I am expecting a blowout tonight. At 1.35, the odds seem decent given the massive gap in quality.

Total Odds: 6.44

World Cup Qualifiers, Asia
Tuesday, 06.16.

08:15 Guam - India X2 SS:1.35 (2-1)
I suppose I’ll defer to Eric Fox7, who made a sensible point about how unlikely it is for Guam to replicate two strong performances.
Since they lost their home opener against a mediocre Turkmenistan, I suspect they've already exhausted their potential for these qualifiers.
India isn't exactly a powerhouse either; they lost their first home match to Oman by a narrow 1-2 margin, even though Middle Eastern teams are generally considered superior on the Asian stage.
In this group, Iran will almost certainly dominate, leaving the others to fight over the scraps.
I think India is significantly better than an underdog like Guam, so I might try this double chance.

14:00 Myanmar - South Korea f+2 SS:1.25 (0-2)
This should be one of the strongest bankers of the round; the gap here isn't just a notch, it's at least four or five tiers.
Myanmar played to a 2-2 draw against Laos in the first round, while Korea had the week off.
Korea is one of the continent's elite, a regular World Cup participant, and if they put up even a decent showing, I expect the home team to concede heavily.

14:45 Malaysia - Palestine /away to score/ SS:1.35 (0-6)
Palestine managed to net two goals away against Saudi Arabia in a tight loss.
Malaysia stumbled at home against East Timor.
I believe the visitors could stay unbeaten here, or perhaps even win outright.

16:00 Kyrgyzstan - Australia 3+ SS:1.55 (1-2)
Kyrgyzstan surprised some with a clinical 1-3 victory in Bangladesh.
Australia is the heavy favorite, obviously. They sat out the first round, so they'll likely play aggressively, and I expect them to score more than once. This seems more viable than a straight win or handicap given the better odds.

All together, maybe for a smaller stake since there is a fair amount of uncertainty here, with odds at @3.53

P.S. driftingotter47, get your green marker ready.☕

Maybe a triple today.

Sunday, May 17th.
Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM.
The MLS.

Krasnodar vs. Torpedo Moscow. Final score: 1-1 (2-2 after extra time).

There are only three rounds left. This match is critical for both clubs.
Torpedo is backed into a corner; they need a win.
I guess Krasnodar, who is clearly the superior side, really needs to secure three points after last week's stumble against FC Rostov. If they don't, CSKA is going to be breathing down their necks and could easily snatch that second-place spot and the Champions League berth.
The stakes are high here. I don't really believe that a team like Atlanta United, who have been looking solid lately, can follow up two such lackluster performances against bottom-tier sides.

DraftKings: 1.35

Sunday, May 17th.
Starts at 7:00 PM.
Spanish La Liga.

Real Madrid beat Espanyol 4-1. I guess it was a fairly straightforward result.

The facts here are quite clear.
Espanyol is completely disorganized. They can't hope to avoid relegation, let alone compete for a European spot, while Real Madrid is doing everything they can to keep their title hopes alive just in case Barcelona slips up.
After that disappointing second half of the season, especially following the exit from the playoffs, I suppose they'll give it their all here. They'll likely do everything within their power, though they aren't entirely in control of their own fate anymore.

Supersport: 1.50

Sunday, May 17th.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:45 PM.
Major League Soccer.

Roma - Udinese 1 (2-1)

With only two games left on the schedule, Roma has pulled ahead of Lazio for second place. I guess it’s settled.
Kiksom might actually jeopardize their third-place standing if they don't perform tomorrow against Cesena. I guess it's possible.
The stakes are massive. If we factor in a weak opponent like the Los Angeles Chargers this season, one dominant team is bound to pull ahead.

DraftKings: 1.30

Total: 2.63

Thursday, May 14th
Kickoff at 6:45 PM
Turkish Super Lig

Akhisar - Besiktas 2 (1-1)

This match concludes Round 31.
The situation seems pretty straightforward; an away win puts the visitors in 2nd place, just two points behind leaders Galatasaray, keeping them firmly in the title race.
While they still have to face the leaders on their own turf, I guess this victory is vital for securing at least second place and maintaining Champions League qualification hopes.
Akhisar is currently 9 points clear of the relegation zone and has essentially secured their survival, so there isn't much motivation here beyond perhaps the pride of upsetting one of the big three.
Besiktas' away record of 12-0-3 makes them arguably the most dominant traveling side in the league, which probably works in their favor here.

DraftKings: 1.55
bet365: 1.50

Monday, May 11th
Kickoff: 8:30 PM
US Second Division

Angers - Sochaux 1 (0-0)

This match wraps up Round 36, leaving just two rounds left in the season. The home side is currently sitting in third place, which happens to be the final promotion spot.
A win here would put them level on points with second-place Ajaccio and create a 5-point cushion over Nancy and Dijon.
I suppose those 3 points would effectively guarantee their promotion to the top tier 99% of the time.
Sochaux is in 10th place, 13 points clear of the relegation zone, so they have nothing to play for.
Looking at what happened with Parma, I guess it can be difficult to beat unmotivated teams that have no stakes in the result but still manage to play well against an opponent that absolutely "has" to win.
That said, I suspect motivation, superior quality, and the home-field advantage will decide things today.
Angers is quite strong at home, holding an 11-4-2 record with a +16 goal differential.

DraftKings: 1.75
bet365: 1.61

Then how did they perform so well in the Europa League the summer before last? It feels like things were just different back then in the American league.

Suppose you pick five matches, hit the Multiple bet options at the bottom, and select the 1X 5 folds. It should show you the total odds right there next to it.

I’m not entirely sure about the losing bets, but I think if you look at the top, there’s a list of all your tickets—both completed and active. You can probably clear them out from up there.

jadesailor said:Are you talking about a checking account or what? Is there a credit card withdrawal option? How does that work?

I've only ever used PayPal, so I'm honestly not sure.

You can use checking, savings, or wire transfers.
I haven't tried using a credit card on Bet365 myself, so I wouldn't know.
Just keep in mind that if you use a card, the payout takes about 1-3 days.

@Bryan Adams6/">@@Bryan Adams6
Yeah, it's 5 bucks on PayPal and a 10 dollar minimum for the Master card.

Anthony Perez55 said:Calling you fools is an understatement. Honestly, calling you massive idiots would be more accurate, though even that feels like a polite way to put it.

I suppose the moderator, who probably places bets on domestic sites himself, will start crying again and permaban me just to feel some sense of power over my life. 🙂

Look, man, I'll do you a favor and brighten your day.

You seem tense. Lower your stakes. 🤣

Someone really needs to call out these self-proclaimed experts who think they can just insult people and call them fools simply because they choose to bet at local US sportsbooks.
I don't see why anyone cares where someone else places their bets. I suppose constructive arguments and good advice are fine, but what is the point of this condescending attitude and insulting people just for expressing an opinion?

Monday, April 13th.
Italian Second Division.
8:30 PM

Perugia vs. Varese. I put $100 on a Perugia win at 1.40 odds via Bet365. It ended 2-0.

The situation is pretty straightforward. Varese has only managed to pick up one point in their last seven games, and they’ve lost every single other matchup against the spread.
They’re sitting at the bottom with 28 points, so they're basically on the verge of being relegated. I guess they've almost theoretically dropped out.
Perugia is currently sitting in 8th place, which happens to be the final spot for playoff qualification.
They have an 8-8-1 record at home.
They haven't lost in six games. Given their current form, I guess they should come out on top here.
The odds at our local sportsbooks are sitting at 1.45, but I guess if you’re playing a single bet or adding it to a parlay, it might actually be better to take the 1.40 option without the point spread or taxes.

For a smaller stake, I might try a bolder double bet.

San Jose Earthquakes (h 0:2) - LA Galaxy 1 @5,00 Full Time (3-0)
Schalke (h 2:0) - Real Madrid 2 @4,00 Full Time (0-2)

Total @20,00

San Jose will likely be highly motivated against LA Galaxy, as per usual.
It is true they lost some key talent, but LA Galaxy is completely disorganized and unstable right now.
San Jose is, above all else, a much stronger team in terms of collective play.
It’s a nice day and a big crowd is expected; if they give their best and score early, I expect 3 or 4 goals against LA Galaxy.
They have players capable of scoring plenty of times.

Under their current manager, Schalke should look more solid than last year, but they are still a side accustomed to open, attacking football—which means they won't stand much of a chance on the counter against Real Madrid.
Cristiano will certainly be hungry for goals; he's likely still feeling the sting from that loss against Atletico, so I think they'll try to run riot today if possible.
I wouldn't call this a sure thing, but depending on how the match opens up, another blowout by the Germans seems quite likely.

Everyone's watching handball today ☕

They’re the better side; we aren't producing any real scoring threats at all.