#141 ·
graniteharbor502 said:If you take a look at the lap times from the first stint, it’s pretty clear: Kimi Räikkönen was running faster than Fernando Alonso. To be specific, Kimi put down three separate laps that were quicker than Alonso's absolute best.
http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?p...nando%20Alonso
Look, it’s common knowledge that overtaking in Monaco is practically impossible. If you're the driver in front—in this case, Kimi Räikkönen—you dictate the pace entirely. Kimi is far too seasoned to burn through his tires in the opening laps, so I disagree with the prevailing theory here. Kimi was simply managing his rubber to prepare for one final push before his pit stop. If you actually look at the final laps leading up to the Safety Car, it's clear that Alonso's pace began to drop as well, and the gap between him and the Finn was steadily shrinking. Kimi held a 17-second lead over Kevin Magnussen, a margin that was consistently widening. In just a few more laps, he would have had plenty of breathing room to pit and rejoin the track ahead of the Dane. To put that in perspective, when Massa pitted for the first time, he held a 14.3-second advantage over Kimi, yet he emerged from the pits only 2.7 seconds behind.
After that drop in position following Chilton's blunder, comparing pace becomes a bit of a headache. Kimi was stuck behind Kobayashi and then trailing Gutiérrez. Meanwhile, Ricciardo pulled away from Alonso, leaving him with nothing but clean air ahead. However, if you factor in that Gutiérrez spun out on lap 60 and Kimi was already glued to Button's gearbox by lap 68, we can actually get a decent comparison of the Ferrari pace between laps 61 and 67: Kimi clawed back 3.1 seconds of Alonso's lead. And let's not overlook Kimi Räikkönen's fastest lap. Statistically speaking, only Michael Schumacher (and maybe Alain Prost, depending on how you count those fastest laps following other drivers' disqualifications) stands above Kimi in the fastest lap records. Personally, though, I'm not exactly thrilled. Primarily because it looks like the podium has just vanished into thin air. All the rest of it is secondary. That said, Kimi isn't the one to blame for any of this.
If you’re looking strictly at the lap times, sure, it looks like Massa is outperforming Bottas on those older tires. But you have to look at the actual track position. Massa has clear air in front of him, while Bottas is stuck trailing right behind Jenson Button. You can't possibly know how fast he would be if he actually had the space to breathe. As for Alonso, his pace was dropping on the old rubber—he clocked a 1:21.8 on that last lap before the Safety Car came out. Then just look at his pace on the softs once the Safety Car pulled in. By the third lap—right when Daniel Ricciardo gave him a bit of breathing room—he was already running eight-tenths faster than that. The "undercut" has become a staple of the modern era; basically, whoever hits the pits first gains the advantage by running on fresh rubber. Given all that, I have no idea where you're getting your optimism that Alonso can actually jump Kimi Räikkönen. 🤷
Finally, some actual logic. I’ll concede this point, mostly because I admitted in my opening post that I hadn't factored in exactly where Kimi would emerge or the kind of traffic he’d be hitting. I also made it clear—both in that first post and several times since—that while Daniel Ricciardo would likely overtake him, Fernando Alonso would have a much harder time doing it. It isn't impossible, of course, but apparently, for certain people, a gap of 3.3 seconds is basically a lap ahead.
I’m sticking to my guns on this one: Alonso's pit exit was incredibly close to being perfect, and honestly, it's a shame it didn't pan out the way it should have.
On another note, Kimi really earned that podium in Monaco (assuming the race had actually wrapped up by lap 26). His start and restart were nothing short of flawless.
