Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

The previous suggestion regarding the over 3.5 goals was an easy win.

United Arab Emirates
On Rez.com, they have Al Jazira vs. Al Wahda listed with odds of 1 at 2.50 and 2 at 2.30.
Looking at the screenshots (PSK), Al Wahda vs. Al Jazira shows 2.50 (2.55) for the first option and 2.30 (2.30) for the second.

It is possible this match is being played at a neutral site, which would explain why the team order seems flipped while the actual odds remain consistent. I don't feel like spending too much energy dissecting this, but the spread looks promising; I am leaning toward the over...

Edit: It appears both the screenshots and PSK have updated the odds.
PSK is now sitting at 2.35–2.60.
SS has moved to 2.40–2.50.

If anyone is looking for a single leg from the slip to satisfy a parlay requirement, they could always just play Ronald. Of course, that assumes the slip includes some sort of inside tip straight from the club headquarters.

http://www.realmadrid.com/en/news/20...gainst-sevilla
Ronald isn't playing.

Sevilla has their own share of absences, but I'd say taking the 1.50 odds on him to score should be a solid move...

Gerald Carter53 said:The stuff above—over 2.5 goals looks like an easy win.

United Arab Emirates
On Rez.com, they have Al Jazira vs. Al Wahda listed with odds at 1-2.50 and 2-2.30.
My screenshots (from earlier) showed Al Wahda vs. Al Jazira at 2.50(2.55) - 2.30(2.30).

Maybe since it's being played at a neutral site, the home/away order doesn't matter—it just looks like the odds got swapped. I don't feel like messing around too much with the math, but the spread looks solid... definitely an over.

Edit: Okay, the screenshot and my previous note were wrong—they actually updated the odds.
Previous: 2.35-2.60
Current SS: 2.40-2.50

It was played at a neutral venue.

Yes, they did release the updates later on. However, the odds were completely inverted at the time. It was a 6:0 spread favoring the underdog.

Wwin has put together some rather sophisticated betting cards for the Bilbao-Barça match. When you actually sit down to analyze the spreads, you’ll find that the various conflicting predictions seem to balance themselves out perfectly. 😉

Eric Fox7 said:The game was played at a neutral site

I was actually just browsing through the DraftKings app, and it looks like they ended up losing 6-0. I tried to get a refund since they didn't mention it was a neutral venue and they even messed up the kickoff time on my slip, but no luck—they wouldn't budge on anything.

Burgan from the Kuwaiti league is playing today. The odds for over 2.5 goals are a bit low, but you’d expect at least three to drop, if not more.

The matchup between Stanraer and Alloa has the over 2.5 line at 17/20.
It strikes me as odd that they're offering 1.85-1.85 on the over/under, especially considering how these lower Scottish leagues tend to play.

Looking at Sociedad vs. Sevilla, there's usually plenty of yellow cards in their head-to-head matchups. Even generally speaking, these teams rack them up quite often. The referee seems decent, though he doesn't seem to have much patience for this kind of physical play. Taking the over 4.5 yellows feels like a very solid bet.

Sampdoria has managed to find the back of the net in 8 out of their 9 away matches so far. They conceded twice against Rome, but just one goal against everyone else. Their current away goal differential sits at 9:16. The only team that has kept them scoreless is Bologna.
Napoli, on the other hand, has been scoring at home in all 9 of their fixtures. They've conceded in 5 of those 9 matches, leaving them with a home goal differential of 22:11. Looking back at their head-to-head matchups in Naples, we saw a 2:2 draw and a 4:2 victory—though, admittedly, those dates back to 2015. Still, the last three times Napoli traveled to face Sampdoria, goals were guaranteed.
And here is the most critical factor: Napoli is currently missing three key defenders. Personally, I see plenty of value in a 1.70 bet for Sampdoria to score. Given the strength of Napoli's attack, taking the over on total goals—something like over 3—seems like a very reasonable play.

Gerald Carter53 said:Standard-Alloa head-to-head is at 17/20 with odds of +300.
I find myself quite puzzled by the 1.85 line on the over/under, especially considering this is just a lower tier in the American soccer pyramid.

To my mind, this is absolutely a value play from every possible angle; I had fully anticipated a major regional derby or perhaps one side being on a significant unders streak.

Furthermore, the weather conditions seem unusually favorable given what we have been experiencing lately:
http://www.bbc.com/weather/2636719

Consequently, I am struggling to wrap my head around it—the odds really ought to be sitting somewhere around 1.6 to 1.65.

It occurs to me that we might be overlooking some sort of insider information, though I confess I have no idea what that might entail.

neonviper8 said:that this represents undeniable value from every conceivable angle; I had fully anticipated a major league derby or, at the very least, one of the clubs being on an unders streak.

Furthermore, the weather conditions are uncharacteristically favorable given our current climate:
http://www.bbc.com/weather/2636719

Consequently, I find myself perplexed; the odds ought to have been hovering somewhere in the 1.6 to 1.65 range.

Perhaps we are overlooking some sort of insider information, though I remain entirely unsure as to what that might entail.

It could be player absences. To be perfectly honest, I lack the inclination to engage much today. For those who prefer betting on lower odds, the 2+ options have actually been quite decent lately, considering how those specific odds usually look in this league...

Gerald Carter53 said:It might just be the player absences. To be perfectly honest, I don't quite have the energy to debate this today. For those betting on the underperformers, hitting a 2+ line felt reasonable given how those odds typically settle in this league...

I personally think we shouldn't get too hung up on player absences. When you're looking at over/under bets, that information often turns into nothing more than a chaotic mess of conflicting reports.
In my view, the truly decisive factors are the weather conditions, the players' mindset, and their tactical formations.

Gerald Carter53 said:Burgan is playing in the Kuwaiti league today. The over 2.5 line is a bit low, but I expect at least three goals to drop—likely even more.

The head-to-head matchup between Stanraer and Alloa sits at 17/20 for the over 2.5.
It strikes me as odd that the over/under is priced at 1.85-1.85, considering this is a lower-tier Scottish league.

As for Sociedad vs. Sevilla, there are usually plenty of yellows in their matchups. Even generally speaking, these teams rack them up. The referee is decent, though he lacks much patience for games of this temperament. Taking the over 4.5 yellows feels like a very solid play.

Kuwaitis 2:1
Scots 1:2
Spaniards 5 yellows

Gerald Carter53 said:Sampdoria has managed to find the net in 8 out of their 9 away matches. Rome scored twice, while everyone else managed one. That leaves them with a 9:16 goal difference on the road; Bologna was the only side to keep them quiet.
Napoli has scored at home in 9 out of 9 matches. They conceded in 5 out of 9. Their home goal difference stands at 22:11. Looking back at the last two head-to-heads in Naples, we saw scores of 2:2 and 4:2, though those dates back to 2015. Regardless, the last three times Napoli traveled to Sampdoria, both sides found the back of the net.
Most importantly, Napoli is missing three key defenders today. Personally, I find 1.70 to be a reasonable price for Sampdoria to score. Given the strength of Napoli's attack, an over/under 2.5 goal line also looks attractive...

2:1

Today, Villarreal vs. Barca looks like a prime candidate for yellow cards. The referee has a reputation for being quite active with the cards. The 4.5 threshold should be cleared easily. One could wait on Wwin to catch a better live coefficient.
Even pushing the line to over 5.5 seems plausible; their recent head-to-head history has been card-heavy.

I am leaning toward Milan today. My only hesitation is the inevitable risk of a stumble when the entire betting public expects a victory. They seem to have found their rhythm after a solid performance against Juve in the Super Cup. They really ought to handle opponents like this. Cagliari isn't exactly a formidable threat.

Lately, I have been spending some time looking into the African national teams, especially with the Africa Cup of Nations drawing near. It honestly surprises me sometimes when I see which players end up representing certain nations. 🙂
Today, we have a friendly match between Morocco and Finland taking place in Abu Dhabi. Given the location, the pitch conditions and weather should be perfectly fine. However, Morocco is dealing with a few key absences due to injuries, which has somewhat disrupted their training camp preparations. I have been scouring the official websites of both the Moroccan Federation and the Finnish federation, along with their respective sports portals, reading through all the announcements and statements from the players and coaching staffs. Naturally, the Moroccans are placing all their focus on the upcoming tournament, treating these friendlies merely as stepping stones. They aren't necessarily playing with a "must-win" desperation today, though they remain heavy favorites according to the bookmakers. On the other hand, the Finns are brimming with motivation and enthusiasm. You see these types of quotes everywhere... stuff like, "We have studied Morocco extensively, we know their weaknesses, and we plan to pressure them from the opening whistle..." Honestly, it’s almost laughable, as if they were preparing for a World Cup final. That seems to be the mindset one encounters lately. 🙂 Of course, the Finns aren't bringing their strongest lineup, as their major tournament concluded quite some time ago.
To give you an idea, just yesterday we saw matchups like Ivory Coast vs. Sweden and Uganda vs. Slovakia, where the African sides walked away with victories. They are in peak competitive form, whereas the European sides often arrive with depleted squads. I don't see much value in backing Morocco at 1.40 odds today, but I am currently attempting to find a reliable stream so I can watch how the game unfolds; perhaps I can find a more interesting opportunity for a live bet. 🙂 It goes without saying that Morocco are the favorites and ought to win. To bolster support, the Moroccan Federation has decided to grant free entry to all Moroccans in attendance...

USA League 4. Jan 14th
Newport-Colchester 2 @ 2.30 SS (1-1)
2/10

Man, Newport is in a total rut right now—two draws and eight losses in their last ten games? They’ve completely fallen to the bottom of the table, sitting four points behind the previous spot, and things are getting messy! They actually cut two players from the roster yesterday, and just last week they brought back four guys on loan. Talk about a revolving door!
On the flip side, Colchester is absolutely crushing it lately—seven wins and one draw in their last eight matches! They’ve officially punched their ticket into the playoff zone.

-2

Coppa Italia.

Lakers - Celtics (sš) 1 (3-2)

@ 1.55 SS 6/10

This matchup and the odds honestly look pretty tempting to me, especially since Juventus has been playing so well lately. Even though Bonucci, Alex, and Alves are sidelined with injuries, the Juve roster is deep enough for any top-tier Italian side to just plug those holes without breaking a sweat. I’m also thinking Pjaca might be returning from his injury soon, so he could potentially make the lineup. Looking back at the history here, the last time Juventus actually lost to Atalanta was way back in 2004—and that was in this very cup. Since then, they've only managed a draw twice; everything else has been a win for Juve. It seems like Atalanta is just one of those teams that Juventus always finds a way to handle. My only real question is how heavy they'll go with the starting lineup, but considering Juventus holds the record for most cup wins, I expect them to field a strong squad and hunt for the win. If you're looking to round out a parlay, I think this is a solid addition.

If you're looking for fewer legs or maybe a single bet, I’d personally eye Juve +2 at 2.15 on SS with a smaller stake, maybe a 2/10.


How can you even list an odds line from SuperChance? 🤷

The actual odds were 1.45

+0.04

St. Paul is currently playing against Chinese sides, and in just five matches, they face Basel. Meanwhile, their reserve squad is facing off against Dortmund's reserves. To top it all off, their star striker is away competing in the Africa Cup semi-finals. I honestly have no clue how they expect to piece this whole schedule together. Perhaps there's a chance for an unexpected draw... though, if I'm being honest, a Basel victory seems more likely.

Gerald Carter53 said:St. Paul is playing some Chinese side now. Then they face Basel in five. Their reserves are busy playing against Dortmund's reserves. Even their main striker is away at the Africa Cup semi-finals. How do these people even try to piece a lineup together? Maybe just pray for a bad draw... Basel might take it.

Basel is definitely the favorite here. St. Paul is missing a few guys, including their top scorer, but they’ve got three senior squads to pull from, so depth shouldn't be an issue. Since the second string is facing the Chinese team, Basel will likely show up with their full starting XI.

Brazil and Colombia face off in a friendly tonight. I'm putting everything on: http://selecao.cbf.com.br/noticias/s...a#.WIjEfcso_qB

The heavy hitters playing in Europe won't be showing up for this one. Now, if this turns out to be a mere exhibition match, we could see a total goal fest. Personally, I have my doubts about how "friendly" this actually is, but even at their worst, South Americans play with a certain flair you just can't ignore. Hmm...

FA Cup, Friday Jan 27th 8:55 PM Lions - City X2 @ 1.45 SS (2-2)
Betting unit 9/10

This coefficient is an absolute joke! Leicester is still playing brilliantly, they just haven't had a shred of luck with the results. They aren't any worse than they were last year—in fact, they’ve brought in some seriously heavy hitters (Mendy from Nice for €15.5M, Mus from CSKA for €19.5M, Slimani from Sporting for €30M, Kapustka 9 m, Amartey 6.6M). Their only major exits were Kante and Kramaric. Ranieri is still at the helm, and he's a top-tier strategist—one of the best out there. They didn't just plummet to the second division overnight. They topped their Champions League group and are playing in the Round of 16 right now! Statistically, they look incredible—and statistics don't lie. Look at that recent 0-3 loss against Chelsea; they actually looked like the better side... Meanwhile, Derby is sitting 7th in the second tier. They barely scraped through to the next round of the FA Cup by beating WBA with these exact stats (!):


Leicester is clearly a tier above WBA, and since their league standing has been a total disaster, everything rests on the cups and the Champions League now. Any talk about "bad vibes" in the club is nonsense—there won't be any drama as long as they're playing in the Champions League. I'm expecting a win, but honestly, I can't even fathom them losing to Derby, especially since Leicester's bench alone is deep enough to be the favorite against them... This Derby side is barely keeping its head above water in the other league; they look inferior in every single matchup, so a victory for the visitors is a lock. In my book, this is the biggest mispricing of the odds we've seen in months. The X2 should be around 1.10, and a straight win for Leicester shouldn't be more than 1.70 max...

2 @ 2.65 betting unit 3/10

I don't know why I can't bring myself to just take the straight win for the favorites. Maybe it's because I'm already satisfied with the X2 so I'm slapping it on all my tickets, or maybe it's just a gut feeling that despite all the dominance, it ends in a 0-0 draw.

+0.06

That sounds tempting, Lester, but unfortunately, we won't know the actual starting lineups until right before kickoff. Take yesterday for example—Mourinho decided to play games with his defensive line, and they ended up conceding two goals way too easily. That one little slip-up totally killed my double chance bet. I’ll probably wait until closer to the whistle, but even then, I might just stick to a small wager on the away win...