Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Daniel Foster59 said:It sounds tempting, Lester, but unfortunately, we won't know the actual starting lineups until just before kickoff. Take yesterday, for example—Mourinho decided to play games with his defensive line, and they conceded two goals with almost zero effort, which ultimately cost me my double chance bet on the X2. I'll probably wait it out until the very last second, but even then, I'll likely just take the two-goal spread with a small stake..

True, but Man City held the advantage from the first leg, and besides, this is a cup where the prestige sits a tier below the FA Cup. Plus, Man City simply has much more depth to work with. Today is a winner-take-all scenario; a replay only happens if they draw.

In my opinion, the FA Cup is easily the most intense tournament in England, mostly because it’s where you see the wildest upsets. For someone like Mourinho, every single win feels massive right now since his results have been hovering around Moyes levels—which isn't ideal, especially after he dropped hundreds of millions on new players. It just goes to show how much pressure there is. I remember back in December, there was this classic FA Cup matchup between Wimbledon from League 1 and Curzon Stanley from the National League North. Curzon actually held a 3-0 lead until about the 80th minute, which I think put their odds at around 10 to 1 for a win. Of course, Wimbledon pulled off a miraculous comeback to take it, but it just goes to prove how unpredictable these cups can be.

An English club wins either the Champions League or the Europa League @ 2.90 FAVBET
4/10

Look, compared to tennis, these kinds of long-term bets actually feel way more reasonable to me—mostly because you aren't betting your entire afternoon on whether one single player stays healthy, right? So, I’m not really sweating the Manchester squad's status through the end of the season... honestly, I'm more worried about whether FAVBET will even still be around by then!

Bottom line? They have zero chance in the Champions League. Between Leicester, City—who haven't looked like anything all year—and Arsenal facing an almost impossible wall at the next level, they're out.

But in the Europa League? Man United and Tottenham are miles ahead of the pack. And unlike previous seasons, they’ve actually got some skin in the game since winning this guarantees a spot in the Champions League, which is a massive grind to fight for in the Premier League alone.
I mean, it’d probably be easier to push through a match against Gent, Genk, Ajax, Copenhagen, or Schalke
than to spend another 16 rounds wrestling with Liverpool, City, and Arsenal.

Plus, one of their two biggest threats—Villarreal or Roma—is likely to get knocked out in the very first round anyway.

So, we're looking at either Tottenham or Man United at 2.9.

Tuesday, 01/31/2017.

20:45 Nottingham - Rotherham 1 (2-0)
The home side is sitting just 5 points above Wigan and the relegation zone. They haven't exactly been playing great lately, so this match feels pretty critical for them.
Fortunately, there isn't a better way to scrape some points than taking a win against a half-dead team struggling at the bottom of the table.
Rotherham is arguably the worst team in the league right now, and they've been terrible on the road with a 0-1-13 record.
On top of that, I checked a few sites and it looks like they're missing a couple of key players tonight.
Good luck to anyone following 👍

Betting House: Wwin
Odds: 1.74
Stake: 7/10

+5.18

How on earth are we seeing odds of 1.74 for Nottingham then?
That is certainly a question worth pondering.

Based on the analysis you just laid out, I would have expected those odds to sit somewhere between 1.40 and 1.50 at most.

http://mobile.themillers.co.uk/news/...d-3546993.aspx

neonviper8 said:Then how is it 1.74 for Nottingham?
That's something you should probably be asking.

Based on what you wrote, it should be at most 1.40 - 1.50.

How would I know? I just listed the odds exactly as the Betting House offers them.
And look, Nottingham is basically useless once they're just fighting to stay in the league; they'll play like that because of it.

neonviper8 said:So how is it 1.74 on Nottingham then?
That’s exactly what you should be asking.

Based on what you just wrote, the odds should realistically be sitting around 1.40 - 1.50 max.

Look, when you stumble upon odds at some Betting House that are higher than what you think the actual probability should be, that’s what we call 'value.' That is exactly what you bet on—there's honestly no other way to make money. There's nothing to overthink here; if your intel is solid, you just load up on a Type 1 win or even take the handicap.

Nottingham’s been looking pretty rough this season too, which is probably why the odds aren't super low, but I’m with you—Rotherham should take this one.

The analysis here is also quite solid.

http://www.freesupertips.co.uk/previ...-betting-tips/

http://www.gazetaesportiva.com/botaf...onato-carioca/

So, let's see who’s going to come for me today? I'm feeling pretty motivated. I was just reading through this recent piece about the current state of things at Juventus, and honestly, it really gets you thinking about how much a club can change when the pieces on the board start shifting. You know that feeling when you’re watching a game and you realize the strategy isn't just slightly off, but fundamentally broken? It feels like that's where we are right now. There’s a lot of talk about the tactical setup and whether the squad actually has the depth to compete at the highest level in Europe. It’s one thing to have big names on paper, but it’s another thing entirely to have them clicking on the pitch. I remember back when I used to follow local college ball, there was this one coach who thought he could win just by recruiting the biggest players, ignoring the fact that they didn't play well together. He ended up losing every home game because nobody could find a rhythm. It’s funny how those patterns repeat themselves, even at the professional level. The article touches on some of the individual performances too—looking at how certain players are stepping up while others seem completely lost in the shuffle. It makes me wonder if the management needs to stop looking for quick fixes and instead focus on building a cohesive identity. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype of a single transfer window, but long-term stability is what actually wins championships. Anyway, I'm curious to hear what you guys think. Are we looking at a temporary slump, or is this indicative of a deeper issue within the organization? Is it time for a complete overhaul, or should we stay patient? Let's chat about it. Looking at this betting slip, I can't help but wonder sometimes if I’d be better off just sticking to the Lotto.


Southampton vs. West Ham kicks off at 4:00 PM.
ODG - DA, 1.85 SS (1-3)

After that absolute disaster against Manchester City, Bilić and his crew are heading out to face Southampton. Honestly, this is a classic mid-table scrap between two sides that are neck-and-neck right now. If West Ham actually wants to make a serious run for the upper echelon of the standings, they can't afford anything less than three points here. They have to go for the win. Looking at the stats, West Ham has been a bit of a sieve on the road lately, giving up nearly two goals per match on average. On the flip side, Southampton hasn't exactly been a fortress at home either; they’ve dropped points and let in goals against much weaker squads like Watford and Sunderland earlier this season. Both teams have plenty of depth in their rosters, so even with a few guys sidelined by injury, there's enough firepower on the pitch to keep the scoreboard moving. It feels like a high-scoring affair is on the cards—I mean, looking at West Ham's last five away games, four of them ended exactly like that. I'm leaning towards a goal-fest. Log 4/10

AZ Alkmaar - PSV (2-4) 19:45
2 - 1,80 SS

This should be the big derby of the Eredivisie round. Honestly, PSV has been playing better on the road this season than they have at home, which makes them the clear favorites to walk away with all three points here. They’re sitting in third place right now, trailing Feyenoord by eight points—and let's be real, Feyenoord is that team that just waits for Ajax or PSV to slip up so they can swoop in and snatch the title. There isn't much room for error for PSV moving forward. They have a tough trip to face Feyenoord later on, and looking at the schedule, the current leaders actually have a much easier run through the rest of the season compared to what PSV is facing. On the bright side, PSV always seems to have AZ Alkmaar's number; they've won the last six matchups between them. Plus, their defense has been solid on the road, conceding only five goals all season, while AZ Alkmaar has been struggling to keep things tight at the back lately. Log 4/10Anyway, I’m also looking at that match on my second betting slip—I'm definitely considering picking an option there too. Yes. po 1,60 u SS I'm sorry, I didn't quite catch that! It looks like you might have sent a partial message or just a quick typo. What's on your mind? I'm all ears if you want to chat about sports, share a story, or just vent about something. Just let me know! 3/10.

+6,66

02/04/2017, Saturday

20:45 Valencia - Eibar 1 + Both Teams to Score (0-4)

This season, Valencia has seen both sides find the net in 84% of their matches, rising to 88% when playing at Mestalla. They’ve managed to score in their last 16 games straight.
Looking at Eibar, 89% of their away fixtures have gone Both Teams to Score, so they are certainly capable of scoring tonight.
Their main issue is the defense, which is conceding an average of 1.78 goals per game.
In seven away trips against teams not fighting relegation, they've only picked up 3 points.
Valencia has improved significantly under Vor and will definitely be hunting for a win here.
It's far from a lock, but given the stats and the attacking potential of both squads, it might be worth a shot because of the solid odds.
Good luck!

Betting House: WWin
Odds: 3.46
Stake: 3/10

-3

Rough patch 🤦

Monday, February 6, 2017

8:15 PM Stuttgart - Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 (2-0)
The home side currently sits in third place solely due to goal difference, despite having recorded the most wins in the league.
This should be a solid opportunity to break into first place against a mid-table team that hasn't secured a win in five matches.
Fortuna started 2017 poorly, losing 0-3 at home to Sandhausen.
Prior to their loss against Hannover, Stuttgart was arguably the best home team in the league (6-0-2), coming off a five-game home winning streak before the winter break.
Additionally, Fortuna hasn't managed to score in their last four away games.
Given how important this match is for Stuttgart, we should also consider the incredible form of their top scorer—the league's second-highest scorer—Simon Terodde (11/16), who has netted 7 goals in his last 4 home matches.
Good luck.

Betting House: Pinnacle
Odds: 1.62
Stake: 6/10

+3.72

Lazio - Milan (1-1)

Lazio enters this matchup largely intact, riding the momentum of two consecutive wins, to face a Milan side that looks absolutely battered and demoralized. While Lazio managed to squeak past Inter in the cup, let’s be honest: they benefited heavily from Inter’s complete lack of clinical finishing and some questionable officiating. I’d say they deserved the progression, but only because Inter squandered an absolute mountain of opportunities. Their recent league performance was decent enough, though that single match isn't exactly a definitive benchmark for what's to come.
On the flip side, Milan finally scraped together three points after their recent slump, even while playing with a man down. They aren't playing poorly per se, but they certainly left points on the table that they should have secured easily...
The injury report for them is frankly absurd. They’re missing center-back Paletta and midfielder Kučka due to suspensions, while their fullback situation is a disaster with De Sciglio, Antonelli, and Calabria all sidelined. In the midfield, they're without Montolivo and Bonaventura. To make matters worse, Romagnoli has picked up a new injury and will likely be out, which means we'll probably see Gomez and Zapata tasked with anchoring the defense. With a crisis of this magnitude hitting Milan, seeing the odds for a Lazio win sit at around 1.60 actually feels somewhat reasonable.

Projected Lineups:
Lazio
Marchetti, Radu, Hoedt, De Vrij, Basta, Milinković-Savić, Biglia, Parolo, Keita, Immobile, Felipe Anderson

Milan
Donnarumma, Vangioni, Zapata, Gomez, Abate, Pašalić, Locatelli, Bertolacci, Delofeu, Lapadula, Suso

While the lineups might shift slightly, the trend I'm seeing is that these two sides have historically known how to play against one another. Currently, the attacking units for both teams seem much more cohesive than their defensive lines. Honestly, looking at those Lazio odds feels a bit ridiculous—it’s almost as if they’re playing a bottom-tier side like Palermo. If I were forced to take a risk, I'd rather lean toward Milan. Perhaps that last victory could serve as the spark they need to finally find their rhythm.

Draw or Lazio @1.77 6/10 Wwin
X2 @2.30 2/10 Wwin

+7.22

Haven't posted in a minute, so here's one, even if the odds already dropped:

RNK Split - Hajduk Split 2 1.44 @ betfair (1-1)

The Split squad is looking pretty gutted, honestly. Their season has been a total disaster—only 8 points in 20 games. They didn't even land the coach they actually wanted; just some random replacement stepped in at the last second.
On the flip side, Hajduk is killing it in preseason. All wins, great vibes under the new manager. Fighting for that 3rd place spot against Osijek adds some nice spice, plus they'll be looking for payback after the cup. Defense took a hit losing Simic and Kalinic, but the attack is lethal right now. I think Hajduk takes this.

Confidence: 10/10

For a smaller play (1/10), maybe try F+2 2.30 @ss

-11

Manchester City vs Monaco | 2 - 6,10 SS | Feb 21, 8:45 PM (5-3)

We’ll likely see even better odds tomorrow. Honestly, Monaco is playing some incredible football right now—they might actually be the most clinical squad in all of Europe at this moment. They’re currently sitting pretty at the top of their league, holding off a powerhouse like PSG. This trip to Corsica is their first real stumble in quite a while, though. In the group stages, they managed to secure first place, including a win against Tottenham in England. Meanwhile, Manchester City finished second in their group—which was expected given Barca took the top spot—but they still finished ahead of much weaker sides like Celtic and Borussia M. While City is also on a solid run and looks sharp, I can't help but feel their defense is looking a bit too porous lately. I really think Monaco is going to carve out plenty of opportunities.

The odds here are definitely a value play; it feels worth a shot. My stake would be 3/10.

-3

Kashima - Ulsan 1 @1,60 Wwin 5/10 (2-0)
Kickoff is just twenty minutes away. I’ve been sitting here waiting on the starting lineups to drop. For those who don't follow the Japanese league closely, they might recall how Kashima performed during the Club World Cup. They are a solid outfit even when stepping outside their domestic borders, and they've actually bolstered their roster recently. Their ambitions remain sky-high; they just picked up the Japanese Super Cup a few days ago. On the other side of the pitch, Ulsan finds themselves here after Yeonbuk was disqualified—a sudden, unexpected opening that landed them in this spot. It forced them to cut their current training camp short, and they managed to scrap through the qualifiers by beating a Hong Kong side on penalties. While Ulsan is a side known for playing a defensive game and prioritizing the backline, that doesn't bother me much given this bet. Kashima plays an aggressive style and possesses superior individual talent across the board. They really shouldn't be letting a slip-up happen here. I'm expecting a routine victory.

+3

02/26/2017 Sunday

18:30 Athletic - Granada 1 (3-1)

Following that shocking exit against Apoel and last week’s loss to Valencia, Bilbao really needs this win to redeem themselves.
Now they can finally focus on La Liga and chasing a spot in Europe.
They are one of the stronger sides at home; honestly, the only team to really break them was Barca.
A victory is mandatory here. They're facing a side that hasn't managed an away win yet, and their goal difference over the last four road trips is a dismal 1:14.

Odds: 1.54
Betting House: WWin
Stake: 6/10

15:00 Chievo - Pescara 3+ (2-0)

It's enough to say that Zdeněk Zeman is back in charge of Pescara after last week.
Which means, I guess, we should expect more goals.
Pescara has conceded 55 goals so far, which is the most in any of the top five leagues.
They gave up 21 goals in just their last three matches.
They desperately need points, so they'll likely play aggressively. Coming off that 5:0 blowout against Genoa, they might be feeling confident enough to go for it, so we could see plenty of action on both sides.

Odds: 1.64
Betting House: WWin
Stake: 5/10

-1.76