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Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion
Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion
Started by James Taylor3 · · 👁 23 views · 2.6K replies
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#2482 ·
Gerald Carter53 said:You think they hand out awards based solely on stats?
Of course it’s not just about the numbers. But you really think stats aren't part of the equation?
Especially when the guy actually has a better save percentage and way more saves than anyone else.
Just a few more minutes until we see what they decide. Personally, I don't think Lloris deserves an award after a blunder like that in the final.
#2483 ·
Courtois took it. Honestly, given how Lloris and Subasic performed in the final, he didn't really have any other choice but to walk away with the win.
#2485 ·
Rough Sunday, massive slate of games 🍿 but it always ends up being a bust and totally misses the mark, so you might as well skip following 🕺
Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC
Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 Bet365
Liverpool absolutely choked in the Premier League; nobody saw that 2-0 loss in New York City coming, but today they face the perfect opponent to rebuild some confidence before the international break.
Under Jokanovic, Fulham FC plays an open game, but their defense is a total sieve. They’ve got a pathetic 1-2-8 record so far. Their only away point was a 2-2 draw at Brighton; otherwise, they've leaked 3 goals against Tottenham Hotspur, Everton FC, and Manchester City, and even gave up 4 to Cardiff City.
They even managed to lose to Huddersfield Town 1-0.
I’m expecting a casual 3 or 4 goals for the home side against Fulham FC, and Jokanovic is likely getting sacked after this round.
FC Barcelona vs Real Betis
Both teams to score @ 1.78 Marathon
Barca isn't playing great, but they're still sitting at the top. Real Betis plays decent football, but they're stuck down in 15th place.
Barcelona kept clean sheets in the first two rounds, but since then, all 9 of their opponents have managed to find the back of the net against them.
Under Quique Setién, Batistuta plays aggressive, possession-heavy football. They've struggled with finishing, but they have enough talent to exploit a Barcelona defense that tends to have total blackouts mid-match.
Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC
Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 Bet365
Liverpool absolutely choked in the Premier League; nobody saw that 2-0 loss in New York City coming, but today they face the perfect opponent to rebuild some confidence before the international break.
Under Jokanovic, Fulham FC plays an open game, but their defense is a total sieve. They’ve got a pathetic 1-2-8 record so far. Their only away point was a 2-2 draw at Brighton; otherwise, they've leaked 3 goals against Tottenham Hotspur, Everton FC, and Manchester City, and even gave up 4 to Cardiff City.
They even managed to lose to Huddersfield Town 1-0.
I’m expecting a casual 3 or 4 goals for the home side against Fulham FC, and Jokanovic is likely getting sacked after this round.
FC Barcelona vs Real Betis
Both teams to score @ 1.78 Marathon
Barca isn't playing great, but they're still sitting at the top. Real Betis plays decent football, but they're stuck down in 15th place.
Barcelona kept clean sheets in the first two rounds, but since then, all 9 of their opponents have managed to find the back of the net against them.
Under Quique Setién, Batistuta plays aggressive, possession-heavy football. They've struggled with finishing, but they have enough talent to exploit a Barcelona defense that tends to have total blackouts mid-match.
#2486 ·
Manchester City - Manchester United 1&3.5 Under @ 2.25 (PSK)
It’s pretty obvious that Manchester City is the massive favorite here—maybe even more so than in previous derby matchups—so I suppose a win shouldn't be much of an issue. Then again, I have this nagging feeling it won't be quite the total blowout people are expecting. I guess.
It’s pretty obvious that Manchester City is the massive favorite here—maybe even more so than in previous derby matchups—so I suppose a win shouldn't be much of an issue. Then again, I have this nagging feeling it won't be quite the total blowout people are expecting. I guess.
#2487 ·
Finally getting around to this topic...
Chievo Verona - Bologna FC
over 2.5
2.49
Pinnacle
Chievo is a bit stingy lately—but they usually find a way at home. Averaging 2.17 goals per game, and their last 6 matches have all hit the 2.5 mark.
Bologna was stuck in a one-goal rut for the first 4 rounds, then they finally opened up. They could easily bag two, Chievo probably grabs one, and boom—we’re looking at an over.😬
Chievo Verona - Bologna FC
over 2.5
2.49
Pinnacle
Chievo is a bit stingy lately—but they usually find a way at home. Averaging 2.17 goals per game, and their last 6 matches have all hit the 2.5 mark.
Bologna was stuck in a one-goal rut for the first 4 rounds, then they finally opened up. They could easily bag two, Chievo probably grabs one, and boom—we’re looking at an over.😬
#2488 ·
The thread's gone dead.
I see people asking for analysis—which is fine—rather than just dropping a pick without any context. Though, honestly, I’m no literary critic.
I can offer this, at least:
Just pure stats here. The table on the left shows the probabilities for goal counts (for example, there's a 23.65% chance Augsburg scores twice and a 26.82% chance for Eintracht Frankfurt, which puts the odds of a 2:2 scoreline at exactly 6.34%).
The part below doesn't really need an explanation.
On the right, you've got the odds table, just to make it easier to spot where the bookies are off.
As for the method itself—well, let's just say I took 53 different game elements from OPTA, weighed how much they actually impact the final score, adjusted my initial goal projections accordingly, and then fed everything to Mr. Poisson.
All data is strictly based on the current season.
I don't ever bet solely based on these tables. They lack that "human touch"—you know, the stuff raw data can't process, like actually watching the game live, feeling the team's energy, and all that extra stuff.
But, it has saved my skin plenty of times by planting a seed of doubt or nudging me to take the opposite side.
Sure, it's screwed me over a ton too, but like I said, this is just either the first or last step before putting money down. Everything else is up to you—whether you follow your gut or whatever.
Americans say numbers don't lie, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do—and when they do, they mess up the numbers. 😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable. 🤣
The model goes up to a 6:6 result or 8 total goals, so occasionally, if I plug in a team like Paris Saint-Germain that's on a tear, it starts spitting out absolute nonsense percentages that make zero sense given how many goals they're pumping in.
Usually, I just ignore that.
Unless it's an isolated weirdness, like FC Köln going 8:1 last week, or if a team is legitimately unstoppable. 🤣
It might help some people, and it'll wreck others. At the end of the day, everyone decides for themselves when to "pull the trigger." 😍
The wildest part was when I gave a buddy a tip and he took it as gospel. He's like, "This is it, the table says 2:1 is a 10% shot," without even stopping to think about how tiny 10% actually is—or how unpredictable this game is, where things go sideways 90% of the time. 🙏
Basically, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data every weekend (sometimes I miss it, damn, but usually I get it done), so if anyone wants a screenshot of a specific match, just ask.
If this doesn't belong in this thread, feel free to delete me, mods. 🙂
I see people asking for analysis—which is fine—rather than just dropping a pick without any context. Though, honestly, I’m no literary critic.
I can offer this, at least:
Just pure stats here. The table on the left shows the probabilities for goal counts (for example, there's a 23.65% chance Augsburg scores twice and a 26.82% chance for Eintracht Frankfurt, which puts the odds of a 2:2 scoreline at exactly 6.34%).
The part below doesn't really need an explanation.
On the right, you've got the odds table, just to make it easier to spot where the bookies are off.
As for the method itself—well, let's just say I took 53 different game elements from OPTA, weighed how much they actually impact the final score, adjusted my initial goal projections accordingly, and then fed everything to Mr. Poisson.
All data is strictly based on the current season.
I don't ever bet solely based on these tables. They lack that "human touch"—you know, the stuff raw data can't process, like actually watching the game live, feeling the team's energy, and all that extra stuff.
But, it has saved my skin plenty of times by planting a seed of doubt or nudging me to take the opposite side.
Sure, it's screwed me over a ton too, but like I said, this is just either the first or last step before putting money down. Everything else is up to you—whether you follow your gut or whatever.
Americans say numbers don't lie, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do—and when they do, they mess up the numbers. 😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable. 🤣
The model goes up to a 6:6 result or 8 total goals, so occasionally, if I plug in a team like Paris Saint-Germain that's on a tear, it starts spitting out absolute nonsense percentages that make zero sense given how many goals they're pumping in.
Usually, I just ignore that.
Unless it's an isolated weirdness, like FC Köln going 8:1 last week, or if a team is legitimately unstoppable. 🤣
It might help some people, and it'll wreck others. At the end of the day, everyone decides for themselves when to "pull the trigger." 😍
The wildest part was when I gave a buddy a tip and he took it as gospel. He's like, "This is it, the table says 2:1 is a 10% shot," without even stopping to think about how tiny 10% actually is—or how unpredictable this game is, where things go sideways 90% of the time. 🙏
Basically, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data every weekend (sometimes I miss it, damn, but usually I get it done), so if anyone wants a screenshot of a specific match, just ask.
If this doesn't belong in this thread, feel free to delete me, mods. 🙂
#2489 ·
Morgan Booth70 said:...
This is awesome, honestly one of the better posts we've seen on here in a while 👍👍
#2490 ·
driftingotter47 said:This is great. Honestly one of the better posts we've seen lately. 👍👍
I’d actually put this in the top 5 posts of this thread since July 15th. 😬
:troll;
#2491 ·
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Barcelona
both teams to score @1.61 Bet365
Barcelona is completely lost right now. That rock-solid defense that defined Valverde’s era? Yeah, it's gone. They've been leaking goals everywhere—only managed to keep a clean sheet against Leones in the cup and Inter Milan in the Champions League. They haven't won in three matches either. They scraped a 1-1 draw in Milan, choked at home in a 3-4 thriller against Real Betis, and barely clawed out a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid at the death. To make matters worse, they're missing Arthur Melo, Jasper Cillessen, Luis Suárez, Thomas Vermaelen, and Rafinha tonight due to injuries.
PSV, true to form, live for the attack. Out of 23 games this season, they've only failed to find the net once—and that was a 4-0 blowout at Camp Nou.
Everyone is locked in for tonight, and I don't see them passing up a chance to exploit MATS if it comes their way. Given how shaky the Barcelona defense looks lately, it's practically a guarantee.
both teams to score @1.61 Bet365
Barcelona is completely lost right now. That rock-solid defense that defined Valverde’s era? Yeah, it's gone. They've been leaking goals everywhere—only managed to keep a clean sheet against Leones in the cup and Inter Milan in the Champions League. They haven't won in three matches either. They scraped a 1-1 draw in Milan, choked at home in a 3-4 thriller against Real Betis, and barely clawed out a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid at the death. To make matters worse, they're missing Arthur Melo, Jasper Cillessen, Luis Suárez, Thomas Vermaelen, and Rafinha tonight due to injuries.
PSV, true to form, live for the attack. Out of 23 games this season, they've only failed to find the net once—and that was a 4-0 blowout at Camp Nou.
Everyone is locked in for tonight, and I don't see them passing up a chance to exploit MATS if it comes their way. Given how shaky the Barcelona defense looks lately, it's practically a guarantee.
#2492 ·
Morgan Booth70 said:The thread has gone quiet.
I see people asking for analysis rather than just dropping a pick without any context, which is totally fine by me. Honestly though, I’m no literary critic.
I can offer something like this instead:
It's pure statistics. The table on the left shows the probabilities of how many goals each side will score (for instance, the chance of Augsburg scoring 2 goals might be 23.65%, while Eintracht is at 26.82%; in the table, that would mean the probability of a 2:2 scoreline is 6.34%).
The stuff below that doesn't really need an explanation.
On the right side, there's a table with the odds, just so it's easier to spot where the value is compared to what you'd find at a local sportsbook.
As for the method itself, I won't get too bogged down, but basically, I used 53 different football metrics (from OPTA) to see how much they influence the final result. I then used those to adjust my initial goal projections before feeding everything into Mr. Poisson's formula.
All this data is strictly tied to the current season.
Now, I never rely solely on these tables when placing bets. They lack that "human touch" that raw stats just can't replicate—you know, like actually watching the game live, feeling the momentum of the teams, and all that extra stuff.
But, I have to admit, they've saved my skin plenty of times by giving me a reason to doubt a play or nudging me to bet against the grain.
Of course, they've also burned me more times than I care to admit! But like I said, this is either the very first step or the very last one before money actually goes down. Everything else is up to you—whether you follow your gut or your own logic.
Americans say numbers don't lie, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do, and when they do, they mess up the numbers. 😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable. 🤣
The model can sometimes spit out wild results, like a 6:6 draw or a total of 8 goals. This happens when I plug in teams like Paris Saint-Germain or other heavy hitters in peak form, and the math starts throwing out ridiculous percentages that just don't make sense given how they've been tearing through defenses lately.
Usually, I just ignore those outliers.
I'll occasionally check to see if it was just a freak occurrence—like if FC Köln went 8:1 last weekend—or if the team is genuinely just unstoppable right now. 🤣
It might help some people, and it might wreck others. In the end, everyone decides for themselves when it's time to "place the bet." 😍
The craziest thing was when I gave a tip to a buddy of mine, and he took it way too literally. He saw the table saying there was a 10% chance of a 2:1 score and thought, "That's it!" He didn't even pause to realize that 10% is actually quite low, or that soccer is such an unpredictable sport where anything can happen 90% of the time. 🙏
In short, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data together every time before the weekend kicks off (sometimes I can't get to it, damn it, but usually I do), so I don't mind grabbing a screenshot if anyone is interested in a specific matchup.
If this isn't the right place for this, moderators, please feel free to delete it. 🙂
Which sites are you pulling that data from?
#2493 ·
Morgan Booth70 said:The thread has gone quiet.
I see people looking for deep analysis here rather than just someone dropping a pick without any context, which is totally fine by me. Honestly though, I’m not exactly a literary critic when it comes to breaking down games.
I can offer something like this, though:
It's pure stats. The table on the left shows the probabilities of how many goals each side will score (for example, the odds of Augsburg scoring 2 goals might be 23.65%, while Eintracht sits at 26.82%, which works out to a 6.34% chance for a 2:2 draw).
I don't even need to explain the part below.
On the right, there's a table with the odds, just so it's easier to spot where the bookmaker's lines deviate from my numbers.
As for the method itself, let's just say I take 53 different football metrics (from OPTA) and weigh how much they actually impact the final score. I use those to tweak the initial goal projections before feeding everything into Mr. Poisson's model.
All this data is strictly tied to the current season.
Now, look, I never rely solely on these charts when placing bets. They lack that human touch—you know, the stuff raw statistics can't process, like actually watching the game live, feeling the momentum of the teams, and all that extra stuff.
But, man, it has saved my skin plenty of times by planting a seed of doubt or nudging me to go against the grain.
Of course, it's also screwed me over a ton, too. But like I said, this is either the very first step or the absolute last one before money goes down. Everything else—before or after—is up to you, whether you play it by gut or whatever your own style is.
Americans always say numbers are relentless, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do, and that's usually why the numbers get wrecked.😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable.🤣
The model sometimes spits out results like a 6:6 draw or an 8-goal thriller; it happens. Sometimes when I plug in a team like Paris Saint-Germain or other heavy hitters who are in scorching form, it starts throwing out these wild, nonsensical percentages that just don't make sense given how many goals they've been pumping in lately.
Usually, I just ignore that.
I might check to see if it was just a freak occurrence, like FC Köln going 8:1 last weekend, or if the team is truly just unstoppable.🤣
It might help some people, and it might wreck others. At the end of the day, everyone's just going to pull the trigger on their own "bet."😍
The craziest thing was when I gave a tip to a buddy of mine, and he took it way too literally. He saw the table saying there was a 10% chance of a 2:1 score and thought, "That's it, that's the play!" He didn't stop for even a second to think about how small 10% actually is, or how unpredictable this game is where a 90% favorite can lose any given night.🙏
In short, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data every time before the weekend kicks off (sometimes I don't get around to it, damn it, but usually I do), so I don't mind snapping a screenshot if anyone is interested in a specific match.
If this doesn't belong in this thread, feel free to delete it, mods.🙂
What site are you pulling that data from?
#2495 ·
Morgan Booth70 said:https://www.whoscored.com/
Do I actually need to be registered just to see the full table?
#2496 ·
Harold Moore98 said:Do I need to be registered just to see the full table?
I think you missed the point of my first post—there isn't actually a table there, just raw stats...
Morgan Booth70 said:that I used 53 different football metrics (via OPTA) to see how they impact the final score, then adjusted the initial goal projections accordingly before handing everything over to Mr. Poisson.
#2497 ·
I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned this here yet, but the Gorica vs Istra 1961 match was definitely rigged. 100%.
#2498 ·
Brian Collins45 said:I don't know if anyone's even brought this up here yet—but that Gorica vs. Istra 1961 game? That was 100% rigged.
?
#2499 ·
dustyviper8 said:?
I watched the game, and honestly, it was suspicious how poorly Gorica played against one of the worst teams in the league.
I was checking some odds today and noticed the lines for that match dropped from over 7 down to about 3 for Istra 1961, and several sportsbooks even blocked that specific parlay. Then, a few days later, Gorica faces Dinamo Chicago and they suddenly look like a legitimate squad again (they actually used the same starting eight players compared to the Istra match).
#2500 ·
Brian Collins45 said:I watched it, and honestly, it was suspicious how bad Gorica played against one of the absolute worst teams in the league.
I was checking some odds today and noticed the lines for that match—they plummeted from over 7.0 down to about 3.0 for Istra 1961, and several sportsbooks actually blocked that specific bet entirely. Then you look at Gorica playing Dinamo Chicago a few days later, and they suddenly looked like a legitimate squad again (using basically the same eight starters they had against Istra).
I have no clue how you reached the conclusion that the game was rigged.
Massive drops in odds happen almost every single day—it's not news. And if we’re looking at the actual stats, Gorica is a terrible home team while Istra 1961 is actually decent on the road (Gorica only picked up 8 points at home in 8 games, whereas Istra 1961 grabbed 10 points away in 8 games).
I remember that game clearly because I actually put money on the double chance for Istra for those exact reasons.
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