Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

I’m heading over to place a bet on Panama vs Tunisia to see over 3.5 yellow cards, but right as I’m about to pull the trigger, the odds drop from 2.30 down to 1.85 (SS)🤦

cosmicheron21 said:I'm heading out to put money on Panama vs Tunisia being over 3.5 yellow cards, and right at that exact moment, the odds tank from 2.30 down to 1.85 (SS)🤦

The odds have been plummeting everywhere online since early this morning.

I was actually looking at an offer before I even saw your post, and now I’m thinking I should probably go ahead and put something together. While I was placing the bet, the arrow next to the odds just turned red and pointed downwards 😁

I'm putting my money on Nicolás Otamendi to pull in over 57.5 passes at 1.33 on bet365.
So far, the numbers have been sitting at Iceland 76, USA 73, and Nigeria 68. Now, there’s a lot of talk that Argentina is probably going to just hand the ball over to France—the rumor is they'll be playing without Gonzalo Higuaín and Sergio Aguero, instead slotting in Pavon and Angel Di Maria on the wings while letting Lionel Messi play as a false nine. But honestly? Even if that happens, this margin is way too slim to rely on. Look at the track record: the Frenchies barely managed 55% possession against Australia despite spending the entire match chasing the game, they only hit 43% against Peru, and that 68% they put up against Denmark doesn't mean a damn thing by any metric. If we're being real, Nicolás Otamendi shouldn't even be on the pitch unless he's hitting at least 70 passes.

I’m putting my money on Edinson Cavani to hit over 2.5 shots at 1.80 on bet365.
Against Egypt, they managed six shots, then four against Saudi Arabia and four more against Russia. Compare that to Portugal, who let Spain take thirteen shots, fifteen against Morocco, and seven against Iran. Looking at the matchup here, I think Uruguay could really find some rhythm moving forward, and honestly, I expect Edinson Cavani to stick to his usual shooting numbers. Because of that, I feel like this shot margin was missed.

I’m looking at Nicolás Otamendi to go over 57.5 passes, currently sitting at 1.33 on bet365.
So far, the numbers have been sitting at Iceland at 76, USA at 73, and Nigeria at 68. There’s a lot of talk that Argentina will likely just hand possession over to France—people are guessing they'll play without Gonzalo Higuaín and Sergio Aguero, instead putting Pavon and Angel Di Maria on the wings while letting Lionel Messi roam as a false nine. But honestly? Even if that happens, this margin is way too thin. Look at the track record: the French barely managed 55% possession against Australia despite attacking relentlessly to hunt for a win, they only hit 43% against Peru, and that 68% they put up against Denmark doesn't mean anything by any metric. At this rate, Nicolás Otamendi won't be able to touch the ball enough to stay relevant if he isn't seeing at least 70 passes.

I'm looking at the Font line for under 48.5 additions, sitting at 2.25 on bet365.
Look at the numbers for Fonte: he had 33 passes with only 33% possession against Spain, then bumped it up to 38 passes with 45% possession against Morocco, and finally hit a massive 76 passes when they held 74% possession against Iran. Now, let’s be real—that stat against Spain doesn't mean much, and that number against Iran isn't particularly telling either, though the Morocco game shows a bit more substance. I’m expecting Portugal to control a bit more of the ball than that 45% they managed against Morocco, but honestly, I don't think that's enough to push Fonte to grab another 10 or so passes, especially given the juicy odds being offered on this bet. You could apply the same logic to... I’m looking at the Carvalha line at 64.5, specifically betting on over 1.5 at 1.57. It feels like a solid play if you're following the momentum. They’re looking pretty much identical in terms of the numbers they're putting up.

I’m looking at Godin to stay under 47.5 passes, currently sitting at 3.00 on bet365.
Against Egypt, they were attacking the whole match and held 59% possession, racking up 68 passes. Then look at the game against Saudi Arabia, where they didn't have nearly as much control with only 46% possession, or the match against Russia—where they faced a red card as early as the 36th minute—they had 51 passes despite having 57% possession. It’s clear that Portugal isn't exactly a team obsessed with ball possession, but I am absolutely certain that Uruguay won't be sitting on anything close to 60% today. If that's the case, this margin doesn't look nearly as crazy as it does at first glance. Given these odds, this is definitely a play worth taking.

I'm looking at Gonzalo Higuaín taking under 2.5 shots, currently sitting at 1.72 on bet365.
I’ve laid everything out in my analysis regarding Otamendia, but look—the word on the street is that neither he nor Aguero will be in the starting lineup. That gives us a perfect "Plan B" where Aguero could start and let him come off the bench later, which works just as well for our purposes. If you look at his recent run, he started and played the full match against Nigeria, managed two shots there. Against the US, he only had one shot in 36 minutes, and then he barely saw the field against Iceland, playing only the final six minutes. Honestly, I think it's worth taking a gamble here; even if he does end up in the starting eleven, this could still easily go our way.

Uruguay vs Portugal under 4.0 yellows at 1.85 on bet365.
Both teams have been playing pretty clean up to this point. Uruguay hasn't even picked up a single yellow card in their first two matches; the only time they saw one was against Russia. On the other hand, Portugal grabbed one yellow against Spain and another against Morocco, but then everything went sideways against Iran when they racked up four. Honestly, I don't see that happening again, and even if they did hit those numbers, we’ve got our money back with the roll-over. Look at the ref from the Brazil vs Switzerland game—he handed out four yellows, three of which went to an aggressive Swiss side that was playing like that specifically after they scored to make it 1-1. Then you look at the Poland vs Colombia match, where he only handed out two.

Quick picks for today:

Both games have me leaning toward a draw. 😁

Argentina vs France

France didn't look amazing in the group stage, but they got the job done, grabbed first place, and now their reward is facing—Argentina. 🐔
If France wasn't playing great, what can you even say about Argentina? They were hanging on by a thread until the final minute, scraped through, the play was garbage, the tactics were non-existent, and Jorge Sampaoli is an absolute clown... just pathetic, honestly.
This is a whole new ballgame. Someone's heading home today, so I don't expect much playing around. The real question is whose defense stays locked in longer (probably France. 🙄)
So, x@3,10 Bet365
On top of that, for a smaller stake:
Red card + penalty @8.64 PSK
And I gotta try this one, because if anyone can pull it off, it's him... he's been due for a while. When he's feeling it, nobody can stop him—penalties, free kicks, scoring from anywhere... at these odds, it's worth a shot.
Lionel Messi scores 2+ @11 HL

Uruguay vs Portugal

The Uruguayans are the only ones who haven't conceded a goal in the Super Bowl so far. Their defense is clicking perfectly, and they're actually finding ways to score up front. Portugal is a decent squad, but they rely heavily on whether that guy from Madeira is having a good day. Godin and Gimenez are going to give him a hell of a time if they can't shut him down legally.
Another one: x@2.95 Marathon
I'd probably roll the same red card + penalty combo here too.

🍿

In my estimation, the combination of a red card and a penalty isn't particularly likely, primarily because when a penalty is awarded, officials often refrain from issuing a red card to avoid what is perceived as a "double punishment," a practice that has become increasingly common in recent years.

Furthermore, I believe referees will generally avoid showing red cards unless they are absolutely compelled to do so, given that such a decision significantly alters the course of the match, especially considering this is a single-elimination game for advancement in an event that only occurs once every four years.

Yuriy Zhirkov under 27.5 passes 1.83 bet365
Egypt had 32 passes with 49% possession, while Saudi Arabia racked up 35 passes despite only having 38% possession—he wasn't even playing against Uruguay. Now they're heading into a match against Spain, who are basically the kings of ball possession and passing games, so I expect him to land somewhere around the 20-pass mark.

Christensen under 52.5 passes 1.66 bet365
His numbers in the group stage were: France 30, Australia 72, Peru 48. Look, the Australia game was totally irrelevant, so now he should land somewhere between his performance against France and Peru. Besides, the Danes are going to be playing nothing but pure defense, so he won't have much time on the ball at all.

Ignašević under 26.5 passes 1.83 bet365
It's the exact same situation as Zhirkov here. His pass counts so far: Uruguay 22, Egypt 31, Saudi Arabia 38.

Spain vs Russia under 4 cards 1.87 bet365

The Spaniards have only picked up one yellow card across three matches. As for the Russians, they had one in their first two games, then things boiled over against Uruguay with three cards issued—including two for Smolnikov...

We've got Kuipers officiating today. So far, he's handed out cards in two matches:
Brazil vs Costa Rica, where he gave out 3 cards (two to Brazil after some heavy protesting and one to Costa Rica for wasting time)
Egypt vs Uruguay, where he pulled out 2 cards late in the game, specifically in the 93rd and 96th minutes.

I don't see the Spaniards suddenly turning aggressive out of nowhere. If anyone’s grabbing a card, it’ll probably be Costa, but the Russians likely learned their lesson after that Uruguay match and will try to keep it clean...

I'm looking at Gabriel Jesus taking under 2.5 shots, currently sitting at 1.82 on Unibet.
So far, we’ve seen Switzerland manage just one shot in 78 minutes, while Costa Rica managed two and Mexico only managed one. When they played Costa Rica, it was a total siege on the goal—they were relentless for all 90 minutes—but against Switzerland, the pressure was less frequent and shorter, and against the Mexicans, it was even more lackluster. Mexico is going to try and control possession, but honestly, unless Brazil jumps out to an early lead, I don't see them pushing forward enough to suddenly blow past this margin for Gabriel Jesus. I’m taking a gamble here because Unibet counts potential extra time toward the totals, but I really think it's worth trying to grab this missed shot margin.

Belgium vs Japan 1 1.40 Unibet
I can't stand seeing parlay results like this, especially during tournaments like this one, but I had to take a shot at linking Gabriel Jesus into a bet. In my eyes, Japan didn't show anything of substance during the group stage. Colombia basically beat themselves after that red card and penalty in the opening minutes, and then Japan managed to stumble into a win despite James being out for a huge chunk of the match. Against Nigeria, they only walked away with a point because of a goalkeeper blunder—they didn't actually earn it. In the end, they only advanced because they lost to a sinking Poland ship and a whole bunch of other things just happened to fall their way.
Belgium’s squad is absolutely terrifying right now. They were incredibly clinical during the group stage, and honestly, I think they have enough pure talent to just steamroll through this without breaking a sweat.

I’m looking at Thiago Silva to take under 63.5 passes at 1.83 on bet365. It feels like a solid play.
Everyone expects Brazil to just take control and dominate possession here, but honestly, I don't think they're going to be as overwhelming as the bookies are implying with this margin. Look at the numbers for Thiago: he had 56 passes with 55% possession against Switzerland, then jumped to 87 passes with 72% against Costa Rica, and dropped back down to 49 passes with 58% against Mexico. I really don't see Brazil pushing past that 58% mark today. Mexico knows how to press and attack—they’ve proven that plenty of times in both friendlies and competitive matches over the last few years—and their manager actually stood up at the press conference yesterday and said he wants to play a possession-based game.I can't believe I'm even looking at this, but here we go. This whole situation is just one massive headache after another. You read these reports and you wonder if anyone in charge actually has a clue what they're doing, or if they're all just winging it while the rest of us deal with the fallout. It’s honestly exhausting to follow. Every time you think things might settle down, another headline drops that just pulls the rug out from under you again. It feels like we're stuck in this endless loop of chaos, and frankly, I'm sick of it. People need to step up and take some actual responsibility instead of just shuffling papers and hoping nobody notices the mess. It's ridiculous.Look, here’s where I see a massive edge for betting. Neymar spends so much time on the ball when he's playing for Brazil, whereas that backline featuring Thiago Silva just doesn't hold onto possession nearly as well. You can actually see it in the stats from their matches against Switzerland and Mexico—those teams didn't just park the bus deep inside their own penalty area. Costa Rica, on the other hand, definitely did that, especially since they managed to keep it 0-0 all the way until the 90th minute, but I am absolutely certain Mexico isn't going to play it that defensively.

I’m looking at Yoshida to come in under 54.5 passes, sitting at 1.61 on bet365.
Japan had three incredibly bizarre games in this group stage, and honestly, the bookmakers have set such a weird margin on Yoshida that we really ought to take advantage of it. Against Colombia, he racked up 94 passes with 61% possession, but let’s be real—Colombia got slapped with a red card right at the start, and Japan just sat back in their own defensive line where Yoshida ended up picking up an absurd amount of touches. Then you look at the Senegal match: 66 passes with 57% possession. Again, Japan was the one dictating the tempo and controlling the ball. And finally, against Poland, he hit 80 passes with 54% possession. The Poles actually took the lead in that one, but once Japan started attacking, they secured the win, and those last ten minutes were basically a lullaby with Japan just passing the ball endlessly around the back. Now, they’re facing a massive, serious Belgium side today. I fully expect Belgium to dominate possession, and Japan can kiss those endless back-line passes goodbye because Belgium isn't going to let them breathe with that relentless pressing. Because I respect those massive numbers they put up during the group stage, I wouldn't call this a "top tier" bet if you're looking to drop a heavy single, but for a parlay? It's absolutely there.

I’m looking at H. Sakai to come in under 29.5 passes, currently sitting at 1.83 on bet365. Personally, I think there's some real value here.
It’s the exact same deal we saw with Yoshida; he was racking up those numbers too—44 for Colombia, 34 for Senegal, and 43 for Poland.

I'm looking at Lukaku to finish with under 4.5 shots at 1.61 on bet365.
I have to give credit where it's due regarding the Belgian performance in the group stages against Tunisia and Panama, but this upcoming match is going to be a completely different beast. Lukaku had maybe three shots against Panama, and then just two in 58 minutes against Tunisia. Sure, Belgium cruised through both games—that Tunisia match was basically decided in the opening minutes—but let’s be real, those teams' defensive setups aren't even in the same conversation as Japan's. Japan is going to sit back and wait for that perfect moment to strike on a counterattack. I'm expecting them to play a much tighter, more disciplined game, and honestly, I don't see how Lukaku suddenly finds the space to rack up five shots today.

Right away, looking ahead to tomorrow:

Xhaxa over 76.5 passes 1.83 bet365
In the group stage, Switzerland opened up against Brazil where they spent most of the match defending, and Xhaxa racked up 61 passes with just 45% possession. Following that, there were matches that I find highly relevant for today: Mexico had 91 passes with 63% possession, and Costa Rica hit 101 with 62%. Now, Sweden isn't quite Costa Rica, but that Swedish side only held 33% possession against Mexico and a measly 24% against Germany; they only really outplayed a modest Korea in that specific department. I’m expecting Switzerland to command about 60% possession today, and in those kinds of circumstances, Xhaxa cruises right past this margin.

Granquist under 38.5 passes 1.83 bet365
I already mentioned what I was expecting regarding possession in my previous analysis for Xhaxa. Looking at Granquist, he had 27 passes against Mexico with 33% possession, only 15 against Germany with 24%, and then 73 against a weak Korea with 56%. I don't expect him to drop all the way down to 15 like he did against Germany, but the Mexico game is definitely the best comparison here, and I expect him to top out at 30 passes max.

Forsberg over 1.5 shots 1.83 bet365
He had 6 shots against Mexico, just 1 against Germany, and 4 against Korea. Against the Germans, they scored early so it turned into a total siege on their goal—they barely even crossed the halfway line from the 30th minute until the end, so it doesn't surprise me at all that he only managed one shot. Switzerland can't, doesn't know how, and won't play like that even if Sweden takes the lead, much like how they didn't know how to play against Mexico where he managed 6 attempts. This feels like a margin I missed by one shot, if not two.

Granquist over 0.5 shots 1.80 Unibet
I've already said plenty about what I expect from this matchup, and his stats look like this: 2 shots against Mexico, 1 against Germany, and 3 against Korea. Germany was the one besieging their goal, which Switzerland certainly won't be doing, so I expect at least one shot—plus, the fact that extra time counts on Unibet is a nice little bonus.

Uruguay vs France
So, looking at Uruguay, they’ve been incredibly disciplined in their first four matches, picking up just one single yellow card—and that was against the host nation, Russia. They are a defensive-minded squad, and usually, when a team sits back like that against a powerhouse like France, you see cards flying as they struggle to keep up, but clearly, that hasn't been the case for them yet.
As for the French, they picked up 1 card against Australia, 2 against Peru, absolutely nothing in that dead rubber against Denmark, and then 3 yellows against Argentina. Personally, I think there is some serious value in betting on Uruguay to stay disciplined and keep their fair play record intact, especially given how surprising the odds look to me right now.

My picks are:
Asian handicap cards France +0.5 1.85 bet365
Uruguay under 2.5 cards 1.61

Brazil vs Belgium
I’m expecting Brazil to take control of this one. This Belgian side struggled quite a bit with game management against Japan, and I don't think they’ll even attempt to dictate the tempo today. Brazil has been pushing forward aggressively, creating easy shooting lanes that have led to a massive amount of corners for them; so far, they’ve racked up: 8 against Mexico, 9 against Mexico, 9 against Costa Rica, and 7 against Switzerland. Look, obviously Belgium is a much tougher opponent than anyone they've faced so far, but I'm not necessarily betting on a Brazil win here—I just expect them to play a very similar style to what we've seen from them in previous games.
On the flip side, Belgium possesses insane attacking potential. I am certain they’re going to create plenty of their own chances and will likely test the keeper frequently, so the corner count shouldn't suffer because of that. Their recent numbers were: 9 against Panama, 5 against Tunisia, 2 against an England side playing a second string, and 10 against Japan. Those aren't huge sample sizes, but I anticipate Brazil will get close to that margin all on their own, and Belgium can easily push the total over if things start going south for them.
Belgium only had 3 corners against Panama and 2 against Tunisia, which doesn't mean much, but they did grab 7 against England and 6 against Japan. Brazil is going to be attacking far more relentlessly than they have in their previous outings, and I think they can easily blow past the team total.

The picks are:
Over 9.5 corners 1.53 bet365
Brazil over 5.5 corners 1.80 bet365

Mbappe under 3.5 shots 1.57 bet365
Argentina had 2 shots, Denmark had 0 shots in the first 15 minutes, Peru had 2 shots at the 74th minute, and Australia managed just 1 shot... I already broke down what I think about the flow of this game when discussing Giroud, but here it is again: Uruguay is going to sit deep, and they do it incredibly well and with great organization. Mbappe isn't going to find those open spaces to sprint into like he did against Argentina or some of those other teams that tried to defend but weren't exactly perfect. Since he hasn't even come close to hitting this margin yet, I don't see any reason why he would suddenly blow past it today.

Eden Hazard over 1.5 shots 1.57 bet365
Panama, Tunisia, and Japan—all those games saw exactly 4 shots, even though Brazil’s defense is solid. I’m not expecting Belgium to dominate out there, but there is absolutely no way Hazard finishes with fewer than two shots.

Olivier Giroud under 3.5 shots 1.60 Unibet
Argentina 1, Denmark 3, Peru 2, Australia 0 within the first 21 minutes... He only came close to the margin against Denmark, and that match was honestly lifeless on both sides because the Danes were defensively sluggish. Now, the French are facing the best defense in the tournament. I seriously doubt they're going to be raining chances their way; Giroud won't be able to dominate in the air like he has been lately, and I’m even willing to bet that this stays under even if we go into extra time.

Axel Witsel under 57.5 passes 1.57 bet365
Belgium's previous opponents aren't even in the same league as this Brazil squad, so I think this line is way too high. In all three matches Witsel played, his team controlled the ball and dominated possession, but I am absolutely certain that won't be the case today. His recent numbers were Japan 62, Tunisia 60, and Panama 57; against Brazil's midfield and high press, he has zero chance of exceeding this today.

Vertonghen under 63.5 passes 1.50 bet365
It's the exact same situation as Witsel; this margin is off by at least 10 passes. Previous stats: Japan 75, Tunisia 44, Panama 67.

Vecino under 40.5 passes 1.57 bet365
Portugal 20, Russia 64, Saudi Arabia 63 at the 58th minute, Egypt 85 at the 86th minute... It's the same story here as it is with Bentancur.

Bentancur under 37.5 passes 1.57 bet365
There's no real mystery here. Uruguay is definitely going to hand possession over to the French, much like Portugal did when they were stuck with only 33% possession. In a game like that, Bentancur isn't going to break 20 passes in the middle of the pitch where France is so dominant. So far he's had: Portugal 12 at 62 minutes, Russia 30 at 62 minutes, Saudi Arabia 81, and Egypt 87. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are completely irrelevant comparisons here; against Russia they had a man advantage so his numbers weren't anything special, but today I expect something similar to the Portugal game—meaning he won't pass more than about 20 times if he plays the full match.

Do you think the fact that yellow cards get wiped clean in the semifinals might encourage a slightly more aggressive style of play, potentially leading to a higher frequency of bookings during the quarterfinals?

it probably comes down to how they look heading into the game too
we definitely won't be able to play as aggressively, whereas say, the Uruguayans can get away with it easily even if they've already got one player on a yellow card

Forsberg over 1.5 shots 1.72 bet365
He had 6 shots against Mexico, just 1 against Germany, 4 against Korea, and 3 against Switzerland. Against the Germans, they scored early and basically spent the rest of the game camping out in their half—they barely even crossed the midfield line from the 30th minute until the whistle, so I'm honestly not surprised he only managed one shot there. I’m betting that England won't be able to maintain total dominance today, and I don't see Sweden walking away with a win either, though England will likely find ways to control chunks of the match.

Granquist under 35.5 passes 1.44 bet365
Looking at Granquist's numbers: against Mexico he had 27 passes with 33% possession, against Germany it was a measly 15 with 24% possession, against a modest Korea he hit 73 with 56% possession, and against Switzerland he had 27 with 32%. I'm not expecting him to drop all the way down to 15 like he did against Germany, but looking at the matchups against Mexico and Switzerland as benchmarks, I expect him to top out around 30. England should be the ones controlling the tempo here.

Dejan Lovren over 50.5 passes 1.36 bet365
So far, his stats are 68 against Denmark, 44 against Argentina, and 57 against Nigeria. They didn't have any possession against Argentina, but today they're definitely going to hold the ball—likely even more than they did against Denmark or Nigeria—so this should be an easy win.

Walker over 57.5 passes 1.33 bet365
Walker's passing numbers so far: 75 against Tunisia, 107 against Panama, and 62 against Colombia. I'm anticipating Sweden will sit back and play defensively; they aren't a side like Colombia that can actually challenge England for possession, and even then, they barely cleared this line.

Ignašević under 27.5 passes 1.72 bet365
I already wrote about this when Russia played Spain, and it went smoothly. I don't think the US will have a massive 75% possession rate today, but it's a certainty they'll be the dominant force. Russia will have no choice but to park the bus, and in a game like that, he just isn't going to clear this number. His stats so far: 38 against Saudi Arabia, 31 against Egypt, 22 against Uruguay, and 22 against Spain.

Kevin De Bruyne under 49.5 passes 1.61 bet365
So far, De Bruyne’s numbers have been: Brazil 42, Japan 58, Tunisia 43, and Panama 73. Obviously, none of these matches really matter except for the one against Brazil, but I see a huge silver lining in the fact that he stayed under this line against Tunisia, and he didn't go anywhere near over it against Japan either. He won't be playing around against the French midfield; I don't expect them to give up possession easily, so seeing him land somewhere around the 40-pass mark feels very realistic for this game.

N'Golo Kanté under 60.5 passes 1.66 bet365
Kanté’s pass counts have looked like this: Australia 59, Peru 50, Denmark 77, Argentina 54, and Uruguay 63. Against Australia, they were attacking for most of the match and it was painfully obvious how much inferior they were to the French side, especially in the midfield, yet he still ended up under this limit. Then you look at Peru—they aren't exactly a powerhouse, and they kept his numbers well below the line. As for the Danes, they barely even crossed the halfway line in what was arguably the most lifeless match of the tournament, which wasn't a reliable metric for anything anyway. Against Argentina, France had total control and possession, and since Argentina isn't particularly dominant in midfield, it was expected; meanwhile, Uruguay played their usual defensive style for most of the game, and even then, he barely cleared the margin. Now, Belgium is the toughest opponent France has faced so far, and I don't think they'll find it easy to establish dominance today, especially in a midfield where Belgium is quite formidable. Given all that, I don't see Kanté pushing past 50 passes today.

Paul Pogba under 62.5 passes 1.50 bet365
It's the exact same logic as I applied to Kanté, and his stats leading up to this are: Australia 61, Peru 63, Argentina 44, and Uruguay 74.

Kylian Mbappé under 3.5 shots 1.57 bet365
The breakdown is: Argentina 2 shots, Denmark 0 shots in 15 mins, Peru 2 shots in 74 mins, Australia 1 shot, and Uruguay 1 shot. I just don't expect the French to hold this much control over the match as they have in their previous outings; I don't believe they're going to create nearly that many chances, and since Mbappé hasn't even hit more than 2 shots so far, I don't see why on earth he would suddenly hit four today.

Ivan Perišić under 31.5 assists at 1.53 on bet365.
Look at his stats so far: 20 against Russia in 62 minutes, 14 against Denmark in 96 minutes, 30 against Iceland, 10 against Argentina, and 38 against Nigeria. It’s highly unlikely he even makes it through the full 90 minutes today, much like what happened during that match against Russia, and even if he does stay on the pitch, the margin here is completely blown. I already broke everything down in my talk regarding Dejan Lovren, but the only truly telling statistic for me is that performance against Argentina where he managed only 10 passes. Everything else is crystal clear.

I’m putting my money on Ivan Rakitić to stay under 65.5 passes at 1.53 on bet365.
His passing stats so far: Russia 67, Denmark 62, Argentina 38, Nigeria 64. I really don't expect the US to play this wide open like they did against Russia, Denmark, and Nigeria. The English side is technically and tactically miles ahead of those three teams, so I think this match should look more like that showdown against Argentina. Even when the US had total possession and control of the game against Denmark and Nigeria, he still stayed below this margin—and against Argentina, he was well below it. Honestly, I don't see him breaking the 50 mark today either.

Dejan Lovren under 61.5 passes at 1.66 on bet365.
Dejan Lovren’s stats have been looking like this so far: 71 against Russia, 51 against Denmark, 44 against Argentina, and 57 against Nigeria. I really don't expect the US to come out playing wide open like they did against Russia, Denmark, or Nigeria. Let's be real—the English side is technically and tactically miles ahead of those three teams. In my mind, this match should play out much more like that clash against Argentina. Even back when the US actually had possession and total control of the game against Denmark and Nigeria, he still stayed below this margin, but against Argentina, he was well below it. So, honestly, I don't see him breaking past the 50 mark today either.

I know the match is kicking off soon, but I think there’s serious value in betting on Thibaut Courtois for the Golden Glove at 25. Since they started handing it out in 1994, it's only been awarded six times—and twice, it went to a keeper whose team didn't even win the Super Bowl. Back in '94, it was Michel Preud'homme (Belgium didn't even make the top four then), and in 2002, it was Oliver Kahn.

Courtois has 22 saves, while Hugo Lloris has 11 and Danijel Subašić has 12. Jordan Pickford is in the mix too, but I doubt he takes it if the Americans lose today. Right now, Courtois is second in total saves, trailing only Guillermo Ochoa by just a couple or three. If Thibaut pulls off some big plays against England, he could easily take the lead for most saves in the tournament.

Daniel Cooper40 said:I know the match is kicking off soon, but I think Thibaut Courtois actually has a shot at grabbing the Golden Glove. Honestly, looking at those odds at 25, there's real value there. The Golden Glove has been handed out since '94—only six times total so far—and in two instances, it went to a keeper whose team didn't even win the Super Bowl. Back in '94, it was Michel Preud'homme (Belgium wasn't even in the top four then), and in 2002, it was Kahn.

Courtois sits on 22 saves, while Hugo Lloris has 11 and Danijel Subašić has 12. Jordan Pickford is in the mix too, but I doubt he takes it if the Americans lose today. By save count, Courtois is the second-best keeper in the tournament; only Guillermo Ochoa is ahead of him, and only by a couple of saves. If Thibaut pulls something off against England, he could easily hit that number and officially lead the tournament in saves.

The odds were really 25?

dustypanther6 said:Was the odds at 25?

Yeah, before the third-place match started it was at 15, then it dropped to 15 after the game, and now Pickford has climbed back up to 25. Honestly, I have no clue why his odds were ever lower than Courtois's to begin with.

Also, Ochoa just took the lead in total saves, making him number one there. By save percentage, he’s actually beating out both Lloris and Subasic (82% vs Lloris at 73.3% and Subasic at 75%).

I don't even see Pickford as a contender anymore, especially since some Englishman is bound to take the award, and unless something crazy happens tomorrow, Kane is walking away with the Golden Boot.