Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

It appears Zenit hasn't stepped onto the pitch for an official match since early November.
I suspect they are intentionally sitting out just to manipulate the betting lines; if you wager on 'HSV loses to Dortmund,' the bookies shut you down, and if you try to play it smart with 'Dortmund loses to HSV or Zenit,' they pull the plug on that too. 🙂 It’s a complete double-cross involving Dortmund. 🙂

They’ve been running through some heavy-duty friendlies over the last two weeks against teams like Shakhtar, Metalist—who finished second in their league—and CSKA Moscow. Their prep work has been intense, seriously. So, looking at this, there's no way this is a guaranteed win. I wouldn't even bet on a matchup like Hulk's Zenit because, honestly, I think Dortmund is a step above them. But hey, I'll give them a fighting chance if things get messy and someone picks up a red card—that's really the only way I see them pulling this off.

Nicholas Patel52 said:They’ve been playing friendlies over the last couple of weeks against teams like Shakhtar, Metalist—which was basically the runner-up over in Ukraine back then—and CSKA Moscow. Their prep work has been solid. So, honestly, I wouldn't call this a sure thing. I wouldn't even bet on them if you paired Hulk with Zenit, because I think Dortmund is significantly stronger than Zenit. But hey, I'll give them a fighting chance if they can somehow draw a red card—that's really the only way I see this swinging their way.

Picture this: in the opening attack, the keeper gives up a penalty, gets tossed with a red card, Hulk steps up and buries the penalty, and then—boom—Dortmund catches them on the break and wins the rest of the match.😁

Zenit vs. Borussia Dortmund: Zenit to score 1 goal (2-4 goals total)
Zenit vs. B. Dortmund: Home Win (2-4 goals total)
The first leg of the Champions League Round of 16 is finally here. We’ve got last year's finalists, Borussia Dortmund, going up against Zenit—a team that somehow scraped through the group stage after burning through a mountain of cash, finishing with a measly 5 points (honestly, nobody's ever pulled that off before). Even though Zenit looked absolutely unconvincing in that "group of death" alongside Porto, Atletico, and Red Bull Salzburg, I actually see a real opening for them today. My reasoning? It all comes down to current form and the specific squad stepping onto the pitch for this away trip to St. Petersburg. Dortmund is currently sitting a massive 20 points behind Bayern Munich in the league, and they just got absolutely dismantled by Hamburg in a 3-0 thrashing over the weekend. They’re struggling against teams that are significantly weaker and "softer" than what Zenit brings to the table. In their last 25 matches across friendlies, domestic play, cups, and the Champions League, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet 20 times! Their defense today looks like a total disaster zone with Friedrich and Sokratis pairing up, especially since Subotic and Hummels are both sidelined with injuries. On top of that, they're missing Gundogan, Blaszczykowski, Bender, and likely their absolute superstar, Lewandowski. Now, look, Zenit isn't exactly match-fit because their domestic league is still on hiatus, meaning their last competitive outing was that loss to Salzburg back on December 11th. But I really don't think that lack of rhythm will hurt them nearly as much as the odds suggest. Zenit found the net against Porto both home and away, they scored against Atletico, and even managed one against Salzburg on the road. They love to attack, and that's pretty much how they play every single game. I don't see Dortmund walking away from this without conceding, and they'll probably struggle to walk away with all three points too—though honestly, for the Germans, just not getting blown out might be a decent result heading into the second leg.

Stjarnan vs. Haukar - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 (5:0)

What is there left to say about these teams besides expecting a shootout... This is a cup match—they played a different cup just last month and ended up with a 3:4 scoreline. It’s being held at the same venue as that previous game—some kind of gym/warehouse setup in a suburb outside of Seattle—but the pitch is standard size, artificial turf. You see plenty of these setups in the States for winter games... both sides tend to play high-scoring matches in these conditions. Stjarnan's five recent outings went 2:1, 3:4, 3:2, 3:1, and 2:2, while Haukar saw 2:1, 4:3, 0:2, 2:5, and 7:1. All things considered, expect plenty of goals...

Zenit vs. Borussia Dortmund LIVE on ESPN

Both teams to score: NO (57 min.) (2-4)

1.55

Basically one half-chance the whole first half.

edit - unbelievable 🤮

goal immediately

I managed to process a payment of roughly 3 bucks without any hiccups through Steam, Microsoft, or Apple. However, once I tried hitting that 7 dollar mark later in the evening, things went south and I couldn't get it through 🙂

Robert Wright4 said:Stjarnan vs Haukar, Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85

What profound insight can one truly offer regarding Icelandic football beyond the inevitable expectation of a high-scoring affair? This is a cup competition, and just last month, they played another tournament match that ended in a 3:4 thriller. It’s being held at the exact same venue where today's match takes place—some sort of makeshift arena or warehouse facility over in Kopavogur, though the pitch itself maintains standard dimensions and features artificial turf. You see plenty of these setups in Iceland for winter fixtures; both Stjarnan and Haukar have established a pattern of high-scoring matches in these specific conditions. Looking at the data, Stjarnan's five matches this year resulted in scores of 2:1, 3:4, 3:2, 3:1, and 2:2, while Haukar's run saw 2:1, 4:3, 0:2, 2:5, and a massive 7:1. All things considered, an offensive blowout seems almost certain...

Where on earth did you find that they played a 3:4 game??

Gerald Carter53 said:Where on earth did you get the idea they were playing a 3:4 formation??

Man, the transition happened way too fast...😁

Seattle Sounders vs. LA Galaxy, total goals under 3.5 @ 1.80 (DraftKings) (2:2

Looking at the last three matchups between these two sides, they’ve only managed a single goal combined.
Plus, both teams boast two of the most airtight defenses in the league, having conceded just 15 (D) and 19 (R) goals over 22 matches.
For Wednesday's match, it looks like the club's top scorer and league leader, Benko, likely won't be starting since he traveled overseas to sign with a club in China. But honestly, whether Benko is on the pitch or not, Seattle is stuck in a massive creative and offensive slump. They’ve only found the back of the net twice in their last three games—and let's be real, those were against much weaker opponents. One of those two goals was scored by Benko himself. His likely replacement will be Krstanović, at least to start things off.
Their defense is definitely where they shine. I’d normally point to Bertoša as their weakest link, but he’s actually been one of the standout players over the last few matches, which is a huge plus.
LA Galaxy has a better scoring record, but they’ve shown throughout the season that they struggle against highly organized defensive setups. In their last head-to-head, they barely created any quality chances and only managed to break through Seattle's resistance in stoppage time during the second half, despite dominating possession the whole game. That dominance will be even harder to replicate on the road, especially playing on a less pristine pitch than what they have at home.
Realistically, I’m expecting a dull 0-0 draw or a narrow win for one side.

Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid, Schalke +2 @ 2.30 (Sportsbook) (1:6)

This isn't some wild gamble. While I think there are two "sure things" on today's slate, this one feels pretty solid too.
Real Madrid is clearly the superior squad, and they are in incredible form right now. They’ve climbed to first place in the league, and they haven't failed to cover the handicap in nearly a month.
Schalke is doing fine in their domestic league, but they just aren't in the same stratosphere as the Madrid giants. In their two Champions League outings against the only truly elite opponent in the group, they’ve been outscored 6-0 (losing 0-3 to Chelsea both times). I suspect we might see a similar story unfold tomorrow.

I am currently looking at http://www.espn.com/soccer/match/UN...#omjer;overall and I find myself perplexed, as it does not explicitly state 🙂

Gerald Carter53 said:I had no trouble depositing about $30 into DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM. But once I hit the $70 mark, everything just locked up on me. 🙂

Yeah, I fell for that Dumbaz bet too—honestly, I’m still debating whether to take the Lew and Hulk goal + penalty combo, though my gut says don't touch it. After that, I tried to find something similar for this second game, but I only managed to land the penalty and red card leg; the rest of the parlay didn't pan out. 🤷

Gerald Carter53 said:I was checking http://www.espn.com/soccer/...#ratio;overall but it doesn't show 🙂

ESPN is honestly trash—sites like futbol24.com and soccerway.com absolutely run circles around them.

Eric Hernandez said:LA Galaxy-LAFC, total goals (-3+) under @ 1.80 (BetMGM)

Looking at the last three times these two have met, they’ve only managed one single goal combined.
Plus, you’ve got two of the toughest defenses in the league here—they've only conceded 15 (LA Galaxy) and 19 (San Francisco) goals in 22 matches.
For Wednesday's match, the club's top scorer—who also leads the league—Benko, probably won't be playing since he already traveled and signed his deal with a team in China. But honestly, whether Benko is there or not, San Francisco is stuck in this offensive rut. They've only put two goals past anyone in their last three games, and let's be real, those were against much weaker squads. And hey, one of those two goals was actually scored by Benko himself. His replacement will likely be Krstanović, at least to start things off.
Their defense is definitely their saving grace right now. Bertoša—who I’d normally point out as their weakest link—has actually been one of the better players on the pitch over the last couple of games, so that’s a plus.
LA Galaxy has the better offensive stats, but they've shown all season long that they struggle when they run into an organized defense. In their last head-to-head, they barely created anything worthwhile and only managed to break through the San Francisco resistance in stoppage time during the second half, despite dominating the game. That's going to be even harder to pull off away from home, especially in a stadium that isn't nearly as nice as the Rose Bowl.
Realistically, I’m expecting a boring 0-0 or someone scraping a tiny win.

Schalke 04-Real Madrid f+2 @ 2.30 (SS)

It's not exactly rocket science. I think a 2-goal spread is a lock, but even this is looking pretty solid.
Real Madrid is just a tier above, and they are in incredible form. They've snatched the top spot in the league, and they haven't failed to cover the handicap in almost a month.
Schalke is doing fine in their own league, but talent-wise, they aren't even in the same zip code as the Madrid guys. In their two matches against the only truly elite opponent in the Champions League, they’ve been outscored 6-0 (both games were 0-3 against Chelsea). I wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat performance tomorrow.

(a) I'd also add that a halftime draw (X) at 2.10 is very possible, considering Benko is gone and LA Galaxy hasn't been particularly exciting lately—it basically boils down to passing it back and forth between Soudani and Fernandes, or rather
individual skill ☕ goes toward: middle stake, goals under 2.5 -1.75 on bet365

(b) If this were Schalke two months ago, I would have gone all in. But given Schalke's recent run and that Spanish arrogance we saw in those early games (like against Dortmund last year), combined with a tactical Italian mindset and facing Atletico Madrid this weekend... yeah, I'll pass on this one. 🙂
On the other hand, Kristina's form has been climbing lately, so
Cristiano Ronaldo score goal anytime 1.53 (bet 365) middle stake

2 @ 2,00 <SS> (3:0)

Since both of my Champions League bets went south yesterday, I’m skipping the big matches today to focus on the land of premium chocolate and cold hard cash. The visitors are a solid squad, they're fighting for that top spot, and honestly, I think they can walk away with the points.


The home team hasn't been looking great lately. This whole month of them trying to find their rhythm has been nothing short of a disaster.


The younger guys are finding their stride though, and I'm feeling hopeful they'll pull off a win today.


Looking at the H2H, things don't look particularly bright for the visitors.
Sat 05/10/13 SUL Sion 2 - 2 Young Boys
Sat 13/07/13 SUL Young Boys 2 - 0 Sion
Sun 21/04/13 SUL Sion 0 - 0 Young Boys
Sun 17/03/13 SUL Young Boys 0 - 0 Sion
Sun 02/12/12 SUL Young Boys 3 - 1 Sion
Sun 19/08/12 SUL Sion 1 - 0 Young Boys

The last time YB managed an away win against Sion was back on February 12, 2012. Even though this whole situation feels like it might end in a draw, I feel compelled to bet on the visitors' current momentum. The odds are too good to pass up, and I'd probably just regret it if I let this one slide.

Both Sion and Young Boys are dealing with some serious roster issues right now. Sion is reportedly missing four starters from their usual lineup. It could actually be even worse, though—some reports suggest they might be down by as many as six players due to these absences.
As for YB, they’re heading into this without three of their regular starters.
Even so, if I were placing a bet, I’d still lean toward YB.

FC Cincinnati vs Louisville City FC 2 @ 5.5 (1:0)

Honestly, I think there might be some value in taking this one—mostly because the situation at Cincinnati is such a complete disaster right now... look, Louisville isn't exactly a powerhouse either, so it’s definitely a risky bet, but if you're playing with a smaller stake, it could be worth a shot. I've pasted the coach's statement below, and I found something similar over on ESPN

Gregg Berhalter has resigned from his post as head coach of "Cincinnati."

A commentary on a sports ownership controversy, noting that the new owner is far from a football man.

"I decided to resign. I didn't want to be a witness to this team falling apart. I hope I haven't offended the owner, but he just doesn't seem to grasp what the team is going through. I mean, no offense intended, but he's miles away from understanding football," — he said.

"In a week, the players are going to be free agents. I'm truly sorry—sorry this is happening, and sorry to the fans. I don't have any other choice; this has been dragging on way too long. The constant... the mounting debt is just too much to handle," — said Markiewicz.

According to the coach, this might trigger more resignations, and the club will likely follow suit.

"But things just can't go on like this. A sports idiom—you can't live on empty promises forever. I'm just fed up with it. It was a tough call, but it had to be made. Leaving the team to its fate like this... honestly, right now, they're just spinning their wheels," — he explained.

According to Gregg Berhalter, this marks the third month without pay, which gives the players every right to walk away as free agents.

"It was obvious something was wrong with the squad; we started dropping points left and right. But I couldn't just sit there and stay quiet—I couldn't ignore the truth. Now everything is out in the open, and I just couldn't keep it bottled up anymore. The season starts soon, and with all this debt, we've got nothing left to offer," — the specialist admitted.

"It's pretty clear the team is going to struggle this season. But it's going to be a completely different group moving forward. Only time will tell how they'll fare. It's a heavy thing to worry about, and I don't see a way out... maybe someone else will find a solution, and I'll be happy for them."

link from ESPN http://espn.com/soccer/article/...---324980.html

Postponed over in Ukraine

Lionel Messi scores @5 ss
I can hardly bring myself to believe he’ll actually find the back of the net 🙂 but I suppose I have to place this bet just to be safe...
Considering the sheer offensive firepower Real Madrid possesses, it isn't exactly surprising that Lionel Messi doesn't score frequently; if anything, his shot volume is quite low... Yet, when he does let one fly, it tends to be a dangerous strike that often results in a goal. It is perfectly clear that his primary responsibility is anchoring the midfield, dictating the tempo, and disrupting the opposition's buildup. The real reason I am pulling the trigger on this wager, however, is his recent comment about dedicating a goal to Basich (R. I. P.), the man who first recognized his potential. Lionel Messi was back in the States for the funeral. There is a significant difference between merely wishing for something and actually seeing it through, though I suspect he will be exceptionally motivated—perhaps even stepping up his shooting frequency a bit more than usual. Honestly, given how much of a fool I'd look like if I lost this, I won't be losing any sleep if it doesn't pan out 🙂

St. Pauli 2-Hannover 2 3+ 1,50 (1:0)

So many overs lately... tons of wild results popping up—some even pretty damn weird😁--especially those last three games;
3:4, 4:6, 7:0. Honestly, that's exactly why I'm jumping back on the over trend again...

Cristiano Ronaldo(idg)-Schalke 04-Real Madrid (26.02. 20:45) yes@1,65
-Having sat out three league matches, Cristiano Ronaldo is undoubtedly hungry for goals, and I suspect he'll be eager to maintain his scoring rhythm...

Schalke 04-Real Madrid (26.02. 20:45) f+2@2,30 (1:6)
-It seems to me that Real Madrid is two or three tiers above Schalke 04, especially considering Schalke 04 just played to a draw against Mainz. Real Madrid is in superb form, and with their full starting lineup available, they look far too strong for Schalke 04.
Casillas, Carvajal, Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Marcelo, Xabi Alonso, Luka Modrić, Angel di Maria, Cristiano Ronaldo, Bal, Karim Benzema.

Galatasaray/away-Chelsea FC (26.02. 20:45) yes@1,90
Galatasaray-Chelsea FC (26.02. 20:45) 1X@1,90 (1:1)
-I find myself rooting for Galatasaray; having seen what they were capable of during the group stages against Real Madrid, and witnessing the sheer intensity of their home crowd, it's hard not to be impressed. They are a solid outfit, bolstered significantly by their supporters. I expect Didier Drogba to be highly motivated, so he'll likely be the one to watch. While Chelsea FC hasn't exactly been in peak form over their last five or six outings, I still believe they can find the back of the net at least once, given they've managed to score in nearly all of their recent matches.☕