Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

I might try my luck today with two small odds plays.
UEFA Champions League, 8:45 PM

AC Milan vs Atletico Madrid (Under 1.5 goals in 1st half) @ 1.35
I'm expecting a physical match.
Atletico Madrid is arguably the better side right now, so I suspect the Milan squad will try to stifle the tempo.
I think both sides would likely be content with a draw; I don't see a goal fest here, so this seems like a reasonable bet.

Arsenal FC vs Bayern Munich (Goal in 1st half) YES @ 1.30

On the other hand, I expect attacking football from both teams in this one.
Arsenal FC simply isn't a defensive-minded team, and they tend to play an open style, especially at home.
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich is powerful enough to dominate on any pitch at the moment.
I anticipate more goals in this matchup, but rather than taking over 1.5 goals at 1.15, I’ll opt for a goal in the first half for the better value.

Giroud isn't starting,

He’s on the bench again... he'll probably just get tossed in for the last 15 or 20 minutes, and honestly, I don't see him finding the back of the net much of a chance.

Mario Balotelli (idg)-AC Milan vs Atletico Madrid (19.02. 20:45) yes@2.90-Super Mario is one of those rare players who can conjure a goal out of thin air, a knack he quite clearly demonstrated during the last match against Bologna FC. He’ll undoubtedly be the most dangerous threat for Atletico Madrid tonight; his nose for the goal is sharp, and he genuinely loves testing things from outside the 20-yard box...
AC Milan vs Atletico Madrid (19.02. 20:45) 1@3.80-Following three consecutive losses, Atletico Madrid managed to brush aside Real Valladolid with a 3-0 win, though I have a nagging feeling they are starting to slip behind FC Barcelona and Real Madrid as the season progresses. As for Milan, their form hasn't been particularly stellar, but since Clarence Seedorf arrived, you can see a noticeable shift in quality... They also brought in Adel Taarabt, who has integrated seamlessly and stepped up nicely to fill the gaps left by Stephan El Shaarawy and Robinho; he seems to be clicking well with both Kaká and Mario Balotelli. Even former Milan manager Carlo Ancelotti mentioned he had a chat with Seedorf, noting that he's rooting for them and even shared some "tactical guidance" on how to handle Atletico Madrid.
AC Milan (zžk4,5)-Atletico Madrid (19.02. 20:45) more@1.60-The referee is Portuguese, and looking at his recent track record, he's handed out a staggering 24 yellow cards across his last four matches as the primary official. Unfortunately, Riccardo Montolivo and Sulley Muntari are sidelined today due to yellow card accumulation, which will certainly leave a void in terms of discipline, though on the flip side, we have Juanfran and Raúl García coming in to step up—I'm personally hoping they each pick up a yellow card themselves... Of course, Milan still has the aggressive Frenkie de Jong and the perpetually high-strung Mario Balotelli to contend with...

Ajax Amsterdam - Salzburg HL (ss is 1.80) (0-3)

We already know the deal with the Dutch—total attacking fanatics. They play high-octane football where everyone is just gunning for goals; their league is basically an Over machine, and you can bet your life that an "Over 2.5" line on them sits at around 1.55 half the time... What actually caught my eye, though, is Salzburg. I haven't followed them much in the past, but they jumped off my radar when they absolutely smoked Bayern Munich 3-0 in a friendly (and missed a penalty to make it 4-0, mind you—and that was against a Bayern side playing mostly starters). Salzburg is playing insane this season; they’ve put 73 goals into their domestic league in just 23 rounds. That is a ridiculous 4.0 goals per game average! Plus, they’ve dropped 24 goals in their last five matches alone. Neither side is likely to come out swinging wildly from the first whistle, but even if we see a 0-0 deadlock at halftime, I don't buy for a second that Ajax will play it safe. They’re going to throw everything at the wall—they know better than anyone that coming back from an away leg with a 0-0 draw isn't exactly a winning strategy.

Here are the results from the most recent matches for both squads:

http://pokit.org/get/?d051a18338d6c7...6f028450f4.jpg

http://pokit.org/get/?54b3124ab77046...e4ae3b84f0.jpg

14:45 Lekhwiya SC vs Lekhwiya SC total goals over 2.5 @ 1.50 ss (1-1)

Honestly, this looks like another gift from the books that you just have to take. In this lower-tier league, goals are flying everywhere—over the last six rounds, both sides have been hitting massive overs in almost every single match. When they play each other, it’s almost always a high-scoring affair. The home side is the most clinical team in the league; they score whenever and wherever, so I expect at least two or three against an away side sitting at the bottom of the table. Sure, the visitors are struggling, but they're still a decent offensive unit with an average of over a goal per game. It wasn't quite on the level of Linfield FC or Danac yesterday, but I'm pretty confident we're looking at a goal fest here. Lekhwiya SC will get their job done, and I don't see this staying under today.
Good luck, everyone!

A quick little run—nothing too heavy since my bankroll isn't exactly overflowing—just some classic casual picks:

Everything comes from the PSK

Portland Timbers-Orlando City SC 2 @ 1.70 (1:3)

The home side coasted through the group stage, though they probably had their sights set on fighting for that 3rd spot. They aren't really in competitive shape right now—honestly, they’re struggling at the bottom of the MLS, so this tournament feels more like a chore than an opportunity. Fiorentina isn't exactly playing like world-beaters lately either, but they are significantly better than the hosts, and I suspect they'll be knocking on the door of qualification even while playing away. Just a gut feeling here, but I'll throw a little something on a 1:2 scoreline.

Dynamo Kyiv-Valencia CF 2 @ 2.30 (0:2)

After a rough start back in 2014, Valencia has finally found their footing—they haven't tasted defeat in five matches. They even pulled off a massive upset against FC Barcelona at Camp Nou, so I think they can pull off a win over in Cyprus (since security concerns mean they aren't playing in Kyiv). Kyiv isn't a bad side, but in my eyes, they're just middle-of-the-road, especially given they're currently out of rhythm.

Ajax-Red Bull Salzburg—Salzburg to score @ 1.30 (0:3)

I’d almost go straight for the away win, but the odds have been squeezed quite a bit. Salzburg has been playing phenomenally and absolutely dominates their league—they're 17 points clear of second place, boasting a goal difference of 73:14, which basically means they're averaging over three goals a game. Ajax isn't bad, but they have a habit of conceding goals, even against the weaker teams.

Juventus-Trabzonspor 1 @ 1.20 (2:0)

The biggest "sure thing" of the day. You've got Juventus marching through the Italian league facing a side from the middle of the Turkish league that hasn't known a win in nearly two months.

Plzen-Shaktar over 2.5 @ 1.80 (1:1)

Two attacking sides that both seem to have somewhat shaky defenses. Both teams are averaging well over three goals per match.

Maribor-Sevilla FC—no red card in the match @ 3.60

Sevilla matches tend to be pretty high-strung, usually seeing plenty of cards on both sides—they've actually seen six red cards in their last nine games. Meanwhile, the Maribor natives will likely try to compensate for their lack of technical quality with sheer aggression, so I wouldn't be shocked at all if a red card pops up.

Thor Akureyri - Akureyri over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 (2:1)

Icelandic League Cup. Generally speaking, there's a lot of scoring in their matchups. In their last six games, four of them went over the 2.5 mark (one was a 4:0 blowout), and only one game stayed under four goals (that one ended 1:0).

Jeremy King4 said:14:45 HT Lekhwiya-Al Wakar over 2.5 goals at 1.50 odds

In my estimation, this is yet another gift from the bookmakers—one that simply must be seized. In this lower-tier, high-scoring league, goals are raining down from every direction; looking back at the last six rounds, both sides have seen almost all their matches end in heavy overs. When they face one another, it’s almost always an over. The home side is the most clinical squad in the league, scoring whenever and wherever they please, so I expect them to net at least two or three against a struggling visitor sitting at the bottom of the table. While the guest is indeed at the bottom, they still fall into that category of relatively efficient away teams, averaging well over a goal per match. They aren't quite in the same class as Linfield FC or those Danes from yesterday, but I am quite confident we are looking at a goal fest here. Lekhwiya will do what they do best, and I find it difficult to imagine this matchup staying under today.
Good luck to everyone!

this second pair from the Qatari league that just kicked off should also go over. both pairs have live betting available... there might be something worth grabbing here🙂 thanks for bringing this to my attention🙂

EDIT:
Al Sadd-Al Kor 3:2 HT
Lekhwiya-Al Wakra 1:1 HT

Smooth, very smooth.

Ajax-RB Salzburg 1 @ 2.40 PSK, Germany (0-3)

The odds on Ajax have jumped from an initial 1.8 to 2.4, so I'm taking them. It’s too good to pass up.
The stadium is sold out. De Boer basically admitted he has a choice to make—he'd much rather grab a Europa League trophy than a fourth straight domestic league title. You can't question the motivation here.
Sure, Red Bull looks impressive lately with their scoring run, but let's be real: Ajax has been playing at a higher level. They were fighting for a Champions League group spot until the very last second, and they even managed to beat FC Barcelona at home.
Expect a tight one. Maybe I'm being a bit biased toward Ajax, but whenever I see the top team from the Netherlands facing off against the leaders from Austria at these kinds of odds, I'm putting my money on the Americans.

Seattle Sounders-Wellington Phoenix odg3+ @ 2,20 (1:4)(PSK, HL sigurno daje više)

The defending champs haven't exactly hit the ground running this season—they're actually stuck in a pretty nasty slump right now after dropping three straight. This matchup feels more like a warm-up for their Asian Champions League clash coming up this Tuesday in Seoul, and they’ll be heading into it without three key players due to suspensions. On the flip side, the visitors from New Zealand have been looking sharp—well, if you ignore that total meltdown in the last round where they let in five goals—and they’ve pulled off three wins in their last five outings. Even though the head-to-head history hasn't exactly been leaning my way, I’ve decided to go with both teams to score and at least three goals in the match. The visitors will be itching to make up for that embarrassing loss last week, while the home side is desperate to secure a better seed before the playoffs, so I'm expecting an open game. The Sounders have seen three of their last four games go over, while Wellington—who averages about three goals per game this season—has seen the over in five of their last six matches (actually 6 of their last 7).
I might also take a shot at the halftime/fulltime 2/1 @ 27 (SS) (1/2) because the visitors definitely have the firepower to cause trouble, whereas the hosts have enough quality to pull a comeback—though I suspect they might start slow since part of their minds will already be on that Champions League match.

Tampines-Home United +3 at 1.80 (PSK, HL definitely offers more) (1-0)

Tampines—led by the legendary Đurić (that 43-year-old guy who’s actually a Canadian-born Mexican who even played for the Singapore national team)—is heading into their title defense against the runners-up (who had a rough first half of the season, which is why Home United snatched the trophy from them) and the cup winners, Home United. Usually, Singaporean football is known for being high-scoring, though when these two specific clubs meet, things tend to get a bit tighter than that.
But hey, it’s the start of the season—there's nothing to lose yet, and I'm pretty sure both sides will come out swinging offensively. For a perfect season opener, I'm thinking about doubling up on both transfers 2/1 @ 31 and 1/2 @ 29 (SS) (X/), just going off a gut feeling, obviously.

FC Eindhoven vs. FC Dordrecht 8:00 PM
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals - YES - 1.75 (3-2)




If you just glance at the standings, you pretty much have your answer. There are going to be plenty of goals here, if not even more than we expect.
Eindhoven hasn't exactly been playing like world champions lately, but I suppose even a losing streak has to end eventually; they’ve dropped their last three, yet somehow managed to find the back of the net in each one. Meanwhile, the visitors seem to be leaking goals like a sieve, so I'm banking on that trend continuing tonight.
The odds aren't exactly massive, and honestly, looking at how the home side is struggling, it might actually be the smarter play to just bet on an away win. But nothing in life is ever certain—not even whether I'll make it to my dinner reservation by 7:30—so I think I'll just stick to the goal totals instead.

Schalke vs. Mainz, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75

The home manager, Keller, is making sure everyone knows he isn't sleeping on Mainz, even though he’s pretty damn aware his Schalke squad is hitting their stride right now.


It feels like forever since they pulled off five straight wins back in the 2001/02 season, but looking at how things are moving, we might actually see a repeat today. Keller seems genuinely happy with the grit the guys are showing in practice, Draxler is finally back in the mix after being sidelined, and honestly, the vibes in the locker room are just solid.

The visitors aren't exactly pushovers either, though they'll likely be feeling the absence of Joo-Ho Park on the pitch today.

Possible line-ups:

Schalke: Fährmann - Höwedes, Felipe Santana, Matip, Kolasinac - K.-P. Boateng, Neustädter - Farfan, Meyer, Draxler - Huntelaar

Mainz: Karius - Pospech, Bell, Noveski, Junior Diaz - Geis - Moritz, Malli - Koo - N. Müller, Okazaki

The big offshore books are already slashing the odds on this one, so I wouldn't be surprised if our local lines follow suit pretty soon.

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Chicago Fire 1 @ 1.50 (2-1)
USL Championship, 5:00 PM

There’s only one spot available for promotion to the top flight, and honestly, it’s going to be either Vaduz or San Jose.


I’d much rather see them facing someone sitting comfortably in the middle of the pack, mostly because I have a personal vendetta against playing teams that are just fighting for survival. But then again, maybe that 30-point gap in the standings actually means something regarding the quality of these sides, so I'm hopeful they stay focused enough to pull off a win at home. San Jose managed 2-1 and 1-0 wins in their last two outings, and if they can replicate that kind of grit today, we might be in for something interesting.

Real Sociedad - Barcelona 1x 2.50 (3-1)


Everything feels pretty much the same as last time, from the odds to how much these teams actually care about the result. Barca knocked Real out of the cup (2:0, 1:1) and since then they’ve been tearing it up, crushing Vallecanos (6:0) and taking down Man City (2:0). Meanwhile, Real just scraped by Malaga on the road with a 1:0 win.
The odds on over 2.5 goals seem a little too thin for my liking, so I think I'll just stick to my usual guns and back the home side.

Wolfsburg vs. Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score - 1.95 (3-1)

This is my last one for today; I suppose I should give everyone else a chance to get their thoughts down, even if I could probably fill three whole pages just listing all the absolute nonsense I’ve wagered on lately 🙄.

2. Leverkusen 21 14 1 6 38:22 43
6. Wolfsburg 21 11 3 7 35:25 36

The Wolves are starting to find their footing again, though I don't trust them quite enough yet to bet on them outright. Both sides seem to have plenty of firepower, but they also can't seem to keep a clean sheet to save their lives.

Probable lineups Wolfsburg:
Benaglio – Ochs, Naldo, Knoche, Rodriguez – Luiz Gustavo, Medojevic – Arnold, de Bruyne, Perisic (D.Caligiuri) – Dost

The Leverkusen crew seems to realize that chasing a Champions League spot might be a bit too ambitious right now, so I suspect they'll put their energy back into the domestic league. They really need to defend that runner-up spot—especially since Dortmund will likely cruise past a struggling Hamburg side today—and I doubt they want to suffer another back-to-back loss like that 1-2 stumble against Schalke.

Probable lineups Bayer Leverkusen: Leno – Hilbert, Wollscheid, Toprak, Boenisch – L. Bender, Reinartz, Castro – Sam, Kiesling, Brandt

Both these teams make for an interesting matchup, and here is how they've fared against each other:

11:45 AM BK FREM-BRONSHOJ BK Over 2.5 @ 1.40 ; Under 1.5 @ 1.50 ; Over 3+ @ 1.85 (PSK (2-3))

Another funny one on the slate. I'm taking the over since it looks solid, though I'll play the other options a bit more cautiously. Not much to dissect here—this could easily go sideways like that random exotic league game last time, but I feel better about this one. It's just a friendly match involving the Danes, so I’m expecting at least 4 or 5 goals. For me, it’s the over of the morning. Odds are slim, but plenty good enough for my taste.
Good luck, everyone!

Arsenal(h0:1)-Sunderland X2 @ 1.80 (4-1)

Arsenal is absolutely gutted right now—no Walcott, no Ramsey, and Gibbs is still out from the last match. To make matters worse, Ozil is totally out of sync and constantly clashing with his own teammates, plus Giroud is a complete mental mess after that breakup. They’ve been grinding through four games in twelve days—facing Liverpool, United, Liverpool again, and then Bayern Munich. That last one against Bayern was brutal; you have to run your lungs out just to keep up with a squad that hogs possession like that. They are exhausted, plain and simple. On the other hand, Sunderland isn't bad at all—they're actually on a hell of a run. They rarely lose by more than a goal, if they even lose at all (only one loss in their last ten matches).

Check out these shots from the Sunderland games:

http://pokit.org/get/?b27b75ca3ec7e6...15f55c72ac.jpg

AS Roma wins @ 1.5 (0-1)

Honestly, there’s not even much to say here—it’s pretty straightforward. Roma just needs to keep grinding and stacking these wins—basically just waiting for Juventus to trip up, since they're sitting 9 points behind them right now—but hey, Roma actually has a game in hand. They've got a 4-point cushion over Napoli, so they really need to protect that lead if they want to lock in that Champions League spot directly at the end of the season.

Marseille wins @ 1.75 parlay (1-0)

Looks like the home side finally pulled their act together, so things aren't looking too bad for them right now. They've climbed up to fifth place—tied with Lyon—and they're only 2 points behind St. Etienne, which puts them about 5 points back from third-place Lille. They just finished a match against St. Etienne where they basically threw away 2 points in the dying minutes—talk about frustrating. On the flip side, Lorient totally choked against Toulouse at home, losing 3-1. Lorient isn't exactly a squad you can count on when they travel, either; their record is 3-1-8, which basically means they either win big or lose big. I don't see them pulling off a victory here.

The two biggest stories for today—if you can even call them that.

The Dortmund spread (+2) at 2.10—on the parlay—is sitting at a weird spot right now given that they're trailing 0-3. Honestly, it feels like a bit of a gamble, but sometimes you just have to ride the momentum when things look this lopsided.

Handicaps are always such a headache to play—mostly because half the time, teams just don't care if they win by one or by three, right? But honestly, looking at the situation with the Hamburg squad this season... man, they are absolutely desperate. Especially lately. They’ve dropped five convincing losses in a row, and if you count the preseason stuff, that’s eight straight defeats. It’s grim. They haven't even tasted a league win in over three months, which makes them my top pick for getting relegated. On the flip side, you've got Dortmund, who are absolutely surging toward second place. They’ve gone undefeated in their last ten matches—nine wins and a draw—and haven't actually lost a game in two months. Now, look, I know Hamburg managed to pull off wins against them both times last season, but what we're seeing this year is easily the worst football I've watched in a long time. Remember that absolute blowout back in the fall where they got crushed 6-2 away at Dortmund? Yeah, that was rough. The odds are sitting around 1.8 to 1.9, but it feels like a total mismatch.

The betting lines for the matchup between Willem II and Helmond are sitting at +2.00—though if you’re looking at the HL spread, they’re offering @ 2.15. It’s currently tied up 1-1.

We’re looking at a total blowout league here—seriously, just pure chaos. You've got the home team sitting pretty at the top, averaging nearly three goals a game, though they aren't exactly a fortress since they tend to concede at least one every time they step out there. Then you look at the visitors, some mid-table squad that is playing absolute madness—they’re averaging close to four goals per match, which is just wild when you consider their goal differential is basically a wash at 51:54 over 27 games. It's all offense, zero defense, I guess. Looking back at their head-to-head history—they've met three times now—it’s been nothing but fireworks: a 4:1, a 3:3 shootout, and then a straight-up 7:0 slaughter. Expect more of the same.

If anyone’s looking to place a single bet, the odds on the underdog are massive in the Lottery—I mean, we're talking huge value there—but they're only offering about 1.85 on the handi for Dortmund, which just doesn't feel right.

Standard St. Louis vs. FC Cincinnati | 1 @ 1.50 (2-3)

Aside from my interest in Inter, I’m sticking strictly to the MLS today. The home side is on quite a tear, coming off five straight league wins without letting a single goal slip past them—they've shut out teams like Charleroi, Waregem, Cercle Brugge, Lokeren, and Oostende. They're currently sitting ten points clear at the top of the table.

Here is how the standings look right now:


On the other hand, Cincinnati just played to a 1-1 draw at home against Lokeren, and before that, they were stuck in two scoreless stalemates—one away in the league against Oostende and another in the cup against Waregem. Their last actual win came back on February 12th against Leuven with a 2-0 scoreline.

11/03/13 MLS Cincinnati Standard St. Louis 0 : 1
05/26/13 MLS Standard St. Louis Cincinnati 7 : 0
05/23/13 MLS Cincinnati Standard St. Louis 1 : 0
01/19/13 MLS Cincinnati Standard St. Louis 0 : 0

Looking at the head-to-head history, Standard has been the stronger side lately. The odds seem decent enough, and I have a feeling this one should land in our favor.