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NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Started by Arthur Hill2 · · 👁 36 views · 663 replies

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Participants Arthur Hill2wiredcanyon39James Taylor3Bradley Kern6Eric Fox7stormyseal9Nicholas Chase34Brandon Clark5ruggedgull32Lawrence Castillo76Joshua Gonzalez33shadowjackal27Kevin Barrett52Edward Gonzalez36Robert Sanders2Chloe Smith11swiftowl3Drew Palmer66silentskipper3placidranger19Christian RuizKenneth Baileygraniteotter6Steven Barrett8 …
Brenda Bishop74 Brenda Bishop74 Newcomer
1 message
joined Jan 2012
#101 ·
Drew Palmer66 said:New York (h-10.5) - Detroit 1 1.85
Houston - Dallas 2 2.30
oh it's on 😉

New York lost by nearly 20 to Toronto recently, and honestly, they look like they might just spiral back into a total black hole right about now, so that 10.5 spread actually feels pretty massive to me.☕
graniteotter6 graniteotter6 Member
49 messages
joined Jan 2016
#102 ·
Lipi my thoughts:

Atlanta
NY
Spurs
Nets
I'm planning on playing the basics here, without any handicap.

So, either kick out the intruder or give me a blessing.
I'd appreciate any kind of feedback.
stormyseal9 stormyseal9 Member
20 messages
joined Oct 2011
#103 ·
Wall over 17.5 at 1.85? Are you kidding me right now?! You really think he’s hitting that mark? I don't know, man, I just can't see it happening!
Lin over 14.5 at 1.85—are you kidding me right now? You seriously telling me we aren't jumping on this? It’s such a steal! How can anyone look at those numbers and not see exactly where this is headed? I mean, come on, just look at the momentum! Is anyone actually going to sit there and try to tell me he won't smash through that line? I don't think so! This is basically a gift wrapped up in a bow, so why even hesitate? Get on it!
Bargnani under 19.5 at 1.85—man, I’m telling you right now, just take the under! Seriously, why would anyone even think about betting the over here? Does anyone actually believe he’s going to hit twenty? It just doesn't make sense when you look at how he's been playing lately, so I'm jumping on this one with everything I've got!
Chris Kaman under 17.5, at 1.85? Seriously? Are we even watching the same game right now? I mean, come on! You really think he’s hitting that over? It feels like such a massive reach, like, who actually looks at those numbers and thinks, "Yeah, that's a lock"? I don't know, man, I just can't see it happening!
Jennings under 18.5 at 1.85? I'm telling you guys, just take the under and run with it! Seriously, who actually thinks he's hitting that over? Does anyone really believe he’s got that kind of gas left in the tank to blow past that number? It feels like such a trap, honestly. You look at the matchups and the pace, and it just doesn't add up, right? I've been staring at these lines all morning and my gut is screaming at me—he’s staying under, easy. Why would you even risk the over when the math is clearly leaning this way? Just grab the Jennings under 18.5 and let's get this win!
Evans under 18.5 at 1.85? Man, I don't know, is anyone actually seeing this? You really think he's staying under that number? I mean, look at the matchup, just look at it! Why would anyone bet against him hitting the over when he's playing like this lately? It feels like a total trap to me, honestly, just one of those lines that looks tempting but makes you want to throw your remote at the TV because it's just so obviously off. Are we really doing this? Is this what we're calling a "smart play" now? I'm telling you, if you're riding with Evans under 18.5, you better have a damn good reason, because I am not buying it for a second!
Granger over 18.5 at 1.85—are we seriously still debating this? I mean, come on! Is anyone actually looking at the matchup here or are we all just throwing darts blindly? This has "lock" written all over it if you actually pay attention to how the rotation is shaping up. You really think they're going to keep him on the bench after he's been tearing it up lately? No way. He's getting his minutes, he's got the green light, and honestly, I don't see how he doesn't clear that line. Why would you pass on this kind of value when the momentum is clearly on his side? It’s almost insulting to suggest otherwise!

6/7 system? Seriously? You guys really think you can just walk in here with a 6/7 setup and expect the universe to hand you a win on a silver platter? Are we actually doing this right now? It’s like watching someone try to drive a tank through a Starbucks drive-thru—it’s messy, it’s chaotic, and honestly, it makes absolutely no sense! How does anyone even look at those odds and think they've cracked the code? It’s pure madness, I’m telling you! ☕☕
Laura Morris4 Laura Morris4 Member
12 messages
joined Aug 2007
#104 ·
Duncan over 14.5 SS 1.85

-Over the last 13 games, he’s consistently hit at least 14 points—he only fell under that mark three times, and even then, he finished right on the line with exactly 14.
-When facing New Orleans this season, he’s been averaging about 23.5.
-Kaman is a bit of a question mark here.
-In the last two outings, they leaned heavily on him; he was taking a record amount of shots this month, hitting 18 and 19 attempts, mostly because Tony wasn't in the rotation, and he's still looking uncertain today.
Joseph Lewis13 Joseph Lewis13 Member
24 messages
joined Dec 2011
#105 ·
Laura Morris4 said:Duncan over 14.5 at 1.85

-Over his last 13 games, he's hit 14 or more points virtually every single time—he only dipped into the under three times because he landed right on 14.
-Against New Orleans this season, he's been averaging about 23.5.
-Kaman is a bit of a question mark.
-In the last two games, they leaned heavily on him; he was taking a record number of shots this month—18 and 19—mainly because Tony was out, which remains an uncertainty today.

Parker is definitely in the lineup... he's starting, but they're missing Ginobili, who is sitting this one out to rest.
Gregory Cooper5 Gregory Cooper5 Member
26 messages
joined Jun 2007
#106 ·
Wait, did Kaman actually join the game?!?
wiredcanyon39 wiredcanyon39 Active Member
74 messages
joined Jul 2020
#107 ·
Gregory Cooper5 said:Did Kaman actually get into the game?!?

Chris Kaman NWT - Illness
Gregory Cooper5 Gregory Cooper5 Member
26 messages
joined Jun 2007
#108 ·
So how am I supposed to calculate the matchup then? Is the coefficient just 1?!? :/
wiredcanyon39 wiredcanyon39 Active Member
74 messages
joined Jul 2020
#109 ·
Gregory Cooper5 said:So how am I supposed to calculate this matchup, odds of 1?!? :/

Yeah, let me just toss those 1.00 odds out the window then.
Joseph Lewis13 Joseph Lewis13 Member
24 messages
joined Dec 2011
#110 ·
With Jason Thompson sidelined—who’s been putting up a solid 17.6 points and 13.6 rebounds over the last five games—the Kings are looking a bit lost. Their shooting has been absolutely abysmal lately, and I have a nagging feeling the Warriors are going to absolutely light them up from deep tonight.
Drew Palmer66 Drew Palmer66 Active Member
54 messages
joined Feb 2012
#111 ·
Drew Palmer66 said:New York (h-10.5) - Detroit 1 1.85
Houston - Dallas 2 2.30
oh it's on 😉

Parsons🙂 what a joke... pfft
Joseph Lewis13 Joseph Lewis13 Member
24 messages
joined Dec 2011
#112 ·
Joseph Lewis13 said:Sacramento is playing without Jason Thompson (who’s been averaging 17.6 points and 13.6 rebounds over the last five games)... Honestly, the Kings' shooting looks pretty desperate right now—I have a feeling the Warriors are going to absolutely drown them from beyond the arc.

111-108 🙂
Arthur Hill2 Arthur Hill2 MemberOP
20 messages
joined Jul 2009
#113 ·
Arthur Hill2 said:Chicago (h-12.5) - Toronto (March 25, 01:00)
2
1.85

Chicago is still playing without Rose and Hamilton. Toronto absolutely tore through the Knicks last night. My only hesitation is seeing Calderon log over 45 minutes of play, but even so, a 12-point spread feels excessive to me. The Bulls have had three days of rest; they could easily come out looking sluggish or just completely unmotivated tonight.

EDIT: DeRozan and Bayless are injured. Forget what I said. It’s better to take the under 85.5 for Toronto.

🙂

Changing your mind sucks. 🙂
stormyseal9 stormyseal9 Member
20 messages
joined Oct 2011
#114 ·
What is even going on lately? Has everyone just given up on the NBA, or are we all just taking a breather because these scores have been absolutely insane?🤷

I’m breaking the ice today.😍

Bynum over 17.5 at 1.85
-Honestly, that line feels way too low considering how he’s been playing; he was actually putting in work again the other night, and if you look at his last matchup against this same opponent, he dropped 37 points along with 16 boards! He’s basically carrying the squad right now.
Wade over 23.5 at 1.85
-Since LeBron hasn't really been at his absolute peak lately, most of the heavy lifting falls on Wade's shoulders, and he’s stepping up big time—but let's be real, he needs some help from guys like James and Bosh to keep this pace. That said, he’s averaged 28.6 over the last seven matchups, and just two months ago, he went off for 32.
Jefferson under 21.5 at 1.85
-Utah is on an absolute tear right now with six straight wins, and a huge chunk of that credit goes to their center. After coming back from that two-game break following his grandmother's passing, he put up 23 and 26 points, so I guess that's why the margin is set where it is,🤷but I’ve got my doubts about him repeating that kind of magic. I rarely see him blow past these numbers when they're facing tough teams, especially on the road.
Love over 25.5 at 1.85
-What can you even say about him? After that career game on Friday where he torched OKC for 51 points, there's no way he's scoring half that against Denver, a team whose defense has never really bothered him. Plus, with Pekovica out, he’s probably going to soak up some of those extra shots. He’s been sitting at a 30.3 average over his last ten.

Standard HL bet.

Jamison over 18.5 at 1.85
-Even though he’s burned me a couple of times recently, I’m still riding with him because the guy just takes a ton of shots, particularly at home. He dropped 23 in the last game against Phoenix, so why wouldn't he do it again today?
Pierce over 18.5 at 1.85
-He’s been in great form lately, and since Pietrus is sidelined, he won't be getting much rest, so hitting at least 19 seems like a safe bet.
Millsap over 15.5 at 1.85
-Since I’m expecting him to be the one to shut down Jefferson, I’m taking him as the logical substitute here. His last two games went under because he was shooting poorly, but if he finds his rhythm, he’ll clear this without breaking a sweat.
Durant over 27.5 at 1.85
-In a rivalry game between two top-tier teams, I expect everyone to bring their A-game. Especially since Miami is a matchup he loves; he’s been averaging 32.2 against them over the last five games. Meanwhile, his teammate can't seem to find any rhythm against the Heat and always finishes well below his average, which makes Durant my go-to pick.
Gasol p under 17.5 at 1.85
-I have no clue what they were thinking with this line given his recent performances, especially since he's taking even fewer shots now that Sessions is in the mix, particularly during home games.🤷

It's my favorite play; now we just wait and see if I'm right or if I'm crazy.🤷

Anyway, good luck to anyone else trying to chase a few winners today!😉
Thomas Cook54 Thomas Cook54 Member
41 messages
joined Jan 2012
#115 ·
Yesterday I cleared the Spurs and Atlanta 2-pointers, plus Dallas, one Nets, and Deng... maybe if Lin hits his #14.5 Linsational over, scoring 13 and then just disappearing before the end of the third, I'd be set.🙂
Christian Ruiz Christian Ruiz Member
28 messages
joined Mar 2012
#116 ·
Christian Ruiz said:Jeremy Lin under #14.5

Linsational, Linderella, Linsanity, Linspiration, super Lintendo, Mr Lincredible, Linvincible, The Linstigator... the whole linomania phenomenon really shook the NBA, serving up one of those classic American underdog stories. Of course, you can't chalk Lin's rise up to nothing more than media hype, but you have to admit—that kind of life story, going from total unknown to superstar, is something you really only see in the States. Lin became the first player in NBA history to put up at least 20 points and 7 assists in each of his first 5 starts. He was absolutely on fire during those weeks in January and February, averaging 22.5 points and 8.7 assists heading into the All-Star Break. But let's step away from the movie script details and get back to today's pick. The coach who originally gave Lin the keys to the show has stepped down. Many will probably say "FINALLY." It was pretty obvious that D'Antoni had lost the locker room, especially with some of the All-Stars on the roster, following an open conflict with Melo. Given the results and the team chemistry, this move felt like a logical progression. His assistant, Mike Woodson, took over the reins and immediately sparked a 5-game winning streak. The team started playing much better defensively, and even Melo—who isn't exactly known for his defensive hustle—started showing up more on that end. What interests me about this bet is the current state of the Knicks and their overall roster. To be clear, I'm not placing this bet because of Detroit or the specific matchup; the margin feels quite reasonable at first glance. The sheer number of ball-handlers in the Knicks' rotation is staggering, so it’s no surprise that Melo has been posting his lowest scoring averages in ages lately. While there's talk about him embracing a new role, I personally think that won't last long; it's just a matter of time before he gets back to his career norms. Most importantly, Baron Davis is back from injury. Even though it's too early to judge based solely on yesterday's game against Toronto, it seems to me that Lin is struggling with the reduced minutes. He's the type of player who needs rhythm and consistent time on the floor to find his numbers. With stronger names in the lineup, I suspect Lin's production might dip once Baron starts playing at full strength. This is a bet based on a gut feeling from watching last night's game. Maybe I'm wrong, but I expect flashes from Lin rather than consistent high-scoring output, especially once the roster is fully healthy. I'm hoping tonight isn't another one of those "Lin nights." We've seen enough madness in New York this year.

J. Lin #13 pts
graniteotter6 graniteotter6 Member
49 messages
joined Jan 2016
#117 ·
I’m expecting a high-scoring affair in the OKC-Miami matchup. Both sides clearly realize this is a prelude to a potential Finals showdown, so they’ll likely be putting on a show—showing us certain things while keeping others in reserve. I’m anticipating plenty of points. 201.5 isn't exactly a small number, though it doesn't feel excessive either; if it were 210, I might hesitate. Then again, there's always the chance this could be a total decoy, leading to a surprisingly gritty defensive struggle like an 89-88 nail-biter. 😁
Total points over, Durant over, but I'll pass on the West (thanks to stormyseal9).
Wade over, Bosh UNDER, and so on... As for LeBron, I'm just not sure where his form is at right now, so I think I'll stay away from him.
Joseph Lewis13 Joseph Lewis13 Member
24 messages
joined Dec 2011
#118 ·
graniteotter6 said:I’m expecting a massive scoring explosion in the OKC-Miami matchup—both teams know this is basically the dress rehearsal for a potential Finals showdown, so they’ll likely show off a little. I’m anticipating a high-scoring affair. 210.5 points isn't a huge ask, though if we hit 210, I might have to double-check my math! That said, there's always that nagging feeling it could be a trap game where they catch us sleeping with a defensive grind like 89-88. 😁
Total points over, Durant over, but skip the West (shoutout to stormyseal9).
Wade over, Bosh UNDER, and so on... As for LeBron, I'm honestly not sure where his rhythm is at right now, so I'm staying away from him. .

He's in terrible shape... he's nothing... 🤣 Actually, LeBron is the one orchestrating the whole squad—he's running, jumping, playing lockdown defense, and scoring whenever needed. His point total isn't some reflection of "form" so much as it is just a byproduct of how many shots he takes and how the flow of the game dictates things.
vividbison47 vividbison47 Member
20 messages
joined Aug 2021
#119 ·
stormyseal9 said:Bynum over 17.5 @ 1.85
-I think this line is way too low given how he’s playing right now. He was solid again the other night, and just a game before that, he dropped 37 points along with 16 boards against the same opponent. Honestly, he’s carrying the squad at the moment.
Wade over 23.5 @ 1.85
-Since LeBron hasn't been playing at his usual level lately, most of the weight falls on his shoulders. He’s handling it well for now, but he really needs some help from guys like James and Bosh to step up. That said, he’s averaged 28.6 over the last seven matchups (he even put up 32 in the last one two months ago).
Jefferson under 21.5 @ 1.85
-Utah is absolutely rolling right now with six straight wins, and their center is a huge reason why. After returning from a two-game break following his grandmother's passing, he scored 23 and 26, which is probably why they set the line here.🤷But I’m skeptical he repeats that performance; I rarely see him blow past these numbers against tough teams, especially on the road.
Love over 25.5 @ 1.85
-What can you even say about him? After that career night on Friday where he dropped 51 on a tough OKC squad, he’ll probably score half that against Denver—a team whose defense hasn't really bothered him. Plus, with Pekovica out, he’ll likely soak up some of those extra shots. He’s been averaging 30.3 over his last ten games.

I've been following this one, and it looks solid. But man, the results have been totally wild the last few days. Really hoping this one hits tonight.👍
Nicholas Chase34 Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer
1 message
joined Sep 2011
#120 ·
Pierce over 18.5 @ 1.85 + Wizards +9.5 @ 1.85 Germany

Pietrus is likely sitting this one out, but Pierce usually shows up big against the Wizards, dropping 34 and 21 in his last two outings. That said, I don't see them absolutely demolishing Washington, especially since they've looked pretty solid lately after bringing in Nene. With Boston dealing with a mountain of injuries, it’s hard to imagine a total blowout happening in this setup.

Jamison over 18.5 @ 1.85 + Duncan under 15.5 @ 1.85 Germany

The Suns have been looking pretty shaky defending the post, which should be plenty for Jamison to hit the over, and considering he’s taking a ton of shots at a 40% clip, he ought to cruise past that line.
Since Duncan is on a back-to-back, Popp will probably try to manage his minutes a bit.

Batum over 13.5 @ 1.85 + Golden State +8.5 @ 1.85 SS

Golden State has been struggling quite a bit with covering spot-up shooters, and since Batum takes about a third of his shots from there, it feels like a great opportunity. Personally, I think Batum knocks down at least 10 points by halftime and finishes with something like 18. I also think GSW covers this spread because their style of play really meshes well against how the Blazers operate, and honestly, given how much Portland has been struggling recently, 8.5 feels like a massive cushion. ☕

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