NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

I'm grabbing Monroe over 16.5 from the Play, but honestly—if you want something a little more solid, I guess maybe go with Washington +4.5 from wiredcanyon39☕

Granger under 19.5 at 1.70
-this line is just way too high if you think about it, I mean, in the two matchups they've had this year he's only put up 9 total buckets, and his shooting was absolutely pathetic lately—we're talking 3-of-17 from inside the arc and 2-of-10 from deep, so why would he suddenly explode?
Kaman over 12.5 at 1.85
-man, he's been feeling it lately, he's getting about 15 looks per game and usually converts around 15 shots, he only dropped 10 the other night because he just didn't get enough volume, but look, his field goal percentage is sitting north of 50% right now, so he's due
Boozer over 15.5 at 1.85
-after hitting a bit of a slump, he's gone over in the last two games, and honestly, his last performance was freaking legendary with 26 buckets, plus you gotta realize Deng, CJ Watson, and Hamilton are all out, so he's gonna have to step up big time and carry the load for the guys🤷
Gay over 19.5 at 1.85
-his average is hovering right around this line, but he's such a reliable guy to bet the over on, especially when they're playing on the road where he consistently clears 20, and since Randolph is sidelined, he's gonna have all the green lights in the world to just let it fly
Nash under 13.5 at 1.85
-the old fox is definitely leaning more into his playmaking lately, focusing way more on those assists than actually attacking the rim, and at home recently he's barely taking 7 or 8 shots, he's only cleared this number twice in his last 12 outings, it's an easy call☕

Wall over 17.5 at 1.85
-we've heard it a million times already, the guy is an absolute beast at home, averaging around 20 buckets when he's playing in front of his own fans, yeah, he had a rough night shooting 1-for-8 last time, but who can blame him against that Lakers defense? I'm telling you, he's due for an over today
Westbrook over 22.5 at 1.85
-he's an incredible player who can drop 30 whenever the mood strikes him, my only real fear is them pulling him if there's a blowout, but honestly, with the line set this low, I'm taking him regardless
Nowitzki over 20.5 at 1.70
-he hasn't been himself the last two games, both went under, but that's mostly because he was taking 5 fewer shots than usual, he seriously needs to redeem himself because the team is spiraling right now, I think they've lost 4 straight on the road, and if he doesn't step up, who else is going to?
Rose over 22.5 at 1.85
-everything I just said about Boozer applies to him too, he's got that same energy
Lee over 17.5 at 1.85
-with Curry out, he and Ellis are the obvious go-to options, so I'm expecting him to get at least 15 looks, this line is way too low considering he's been averaging 18.9 buckets a game
Scola over 15.5 at 1.85
-Lowry is banged up and Martin is playing like he's stuck in mud, so Luis is gonna have to show out, this line is basically just his average from the last 10 games or so
Rubio under 11.5 at 1.85
-this line is just ridiculous for him given how bad he's been shooting lately, like, he was shooting around 30% recently, and he even dealt with a little injury in the last game, so even if he plays, he won't be forcing anything

6/7 system, standard HL stake☕
good luck everyone today, let's get this bread and leave the haters in the dust

hmmm

The Rockets moneyline looks pretty tempting without needing a spread.
Anyone heard anything about the specifics of Deron Williams' injury?
I see the line is set at 24.5; I guess the oddsmakers know something we don't. Especially since they might be accounting for whether he actually suits up. We've seen them post player props before only for the guy to never even step on the court.

If Williams is out, the two is a lock. If he plays and is actually 100%, then the two isn't exactly a sure thing, but it still looks solid.🤷

The odds jumped on the Wizards hitting a hat trick at 2.70

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1130/deron-williams

Deron Williams is out tonight.

Interesting...😁

Take advantage while you can. 😁

stormyseal9 man, you see how it works when you actually want it to? I was cruising right past Smith yesterday, just straight up stood him up at 21, and then there was Crawford ☕

I was honestly torn between taking the over on Scola or Martin, but I ended up leaning toward Martin. He’s been a bit inconsistent lately, but if his coach actually gives him decent minutes—which hasn't really been happening recently—I think he could easily clear 17 points. Because of that uncertainty, I'm only rating this bet a 4/10, though it's definitely possible they both go over. I put some money on Houston at 1.45 odds on SS.

Someone in the NHL betting circles actually highlighted the matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Real experts, right? ☕

The full Analysis Inc. breakdown will be available once Livingston finishes up. 🥳

shadowjackal27 said:The odds on the Houston Rockets look pretty tempting without even needing a spread.

shadowjackal27 said:Deron Williams is out tonight.

Hmm...😁

Grab it while you can. 😁

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Taking Houston at 1.45 on the sportsbook.

I grabbed them at 1.7; actually, I think I just copied someone else who pointed out that Lopez isn't playing either. There are a few other Williams players on the roster, but they aren't quite on that level. When you're fighting for positioning in the West, you have to take these. Regardless of how they're playing right now, this feels like one of those locks. It has to 🙄, I suppose.😁
These kinds of public bets usually slide through perfectly, but good luck to us.

Generally, I try to avoid betting on non-playoff teams, but I think the Detroit Pistons look like a solid play against the Toronto Raptors today. The odds might be a little too generous, but I took it. They managed to beat both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Atlanta Hawks in their last two games—both close ones—so where could the poor Raptors go? In my opinion, the momentum is definitely with Detroit, and you should ride teams like that while they're 🤷 moving.

I also put money on the Memphis Grizzlies, even though the under on the total points looks like a safer bet. The Phoenix Suns seem to trend toward the under most of the time, or at least they did a few days ago, and Harrison's defense is practically sacred.
Usually, these "suspicious" picks at 1.8 odds tend to clear easily without much trouble.

Carlos Boozer played great against the Orlando Magic; he really racked up some numbers alongside Dwight Howard (especially since Joakim Noah is in terrible shape lately). 14.5 feels like an absolute steal.

Anyway, that's my slip for today. I might just end up listening to some old country music tonight instead.

graniteotter6 said:Carlos Boozer played incredibly well with the Orlando Magic; playing alongside Dwight Howard, he really held his own (Joakim Noah is in terrible form), so 14.5 feels like a total undersell.

Anyway, that’s my parlay for today. I might just break out the acoustic guitar and play some country songs tonight.

Regarding the bolded 😕

We all agree on Boozer, but we should probably mention that the Utah Jazz is his former team.🙂

graniteotter6 said:I took it at 1.7. Honestly, this is just recycled sentiment from someone pointing out that they don't even have Lopez. Sure, there are a few other Williams players on the roster, but they aren't in that same tier, and when you're fighting for positioning in the West, you have to take these. Regardless of current form, this is a lock that needs to be played. It has to 🙄, I know.😁
These kinds of public bets always walk through thorns, but good luck to us.

Generally, I avoid betting on non-playoff teams, but I think the Detroit Pistons look like a solid bet today against the Toronto Raptors. Maybe the odds are slightly inflated, but I took it. They knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers and the Atlanta Hawks in their last two games—both close ones—so where would the poor Toronto Raptors go? In my view, the momentum is with them, and you take teams like this while they're riding a wave.🤷

I took the Memphis Grizzlies as well, even though the under on points looks tempting. The Phoenix Suns are usually trending toward the under; at least that was the case a few days ago, and Harrison's defense is legendary.
Usually, those "suspicious" 1.8 picks slide right through without any friction.

Carlos Boozer played great with the Orlando Magic; he really stacked up points next to Dwight Howard (especially since Joakim Noah is in terrible form). 14.5 feels like a drop in the bucket.

So, that’s my slip for today. Maybe I'll just blast some country music tonight instead.

I also mentioned yesterday that Lopez is out. But everyone has known that for a while now.

And if Al Horford starts instead of Williams, hm...🙄

I don't know, I just don't see how the Brooklyn Nets can avoid losing against a decent Houston Rockets squad without two crucial players. Considering Deron Williams is practically half the team.🤷
The only scenario where the Nets pull this off is if they suddenly sink about 15 three-pointers at the end of the game.

How are you going to handle tonight without Lowry?

Russell Westbrook under 24.5 @1.85
Monta Ellis under 23.5 @1.85
Carlos Boozer over 14.5 @1.85
LaMarcus Aldridge over 20.5 @1.85

@11.71

Hoping for a total blowout for R.W., plus Luol Deng isn't bad on defense. Taking Ellis since Stephen Curry is moving back into the starting lineup and he's averaging around 22. Going with Boozer because they're missing Luol Deng and Rip Hamilton, and the Utah Jazz are struggling against forwards. Aldridge because the Washington Wizards don't defend the four very well—if he could drop 22 against KGA, he can definitely do it against a weak Washington squad. Plus, this looks like a 200+ point game.

Is there anything specific we should be looking at regarding John Wall and Greivis Vasquez?
Wall was pretty much a ghost last game—only dropped four points. On the flip side, Vasquez actually looked solid; honestly, one of the better players on the Detroit Pistons right now.
I’m thinking both of them might actually hit their over tonight... maybe...
But then again, I feel like I might be missing something crucial here that I just haven't caught onto yet.
I think someone mentioned these two earlier in the thread, what was the final call on them?😁 🤷

Since I haven't shared my thoughts yet, allow me to offer my own predictions for today's action:

Monroe over 16.5 - 1.85
Danny Granger under 18.5 - 1.70
Steve Nash under 13.5 - 1.85
Carlos Boozer over 14.5 - 1.70
Detroit 1X - 1.55
Chicago 1 - 1.15

Supersport

Wishing everyone the best of luck tonight!!!

I’ve been keeping a close eye on the numbers and placed a few individual parlay legs. Wishing everyone the best of luck tonight. ☕

Monroe (-16.5+)-Detroit-Toronto (11.03. 01:30)
Over
1.85
Danny Granger (-18.5+)-Miami-Indiana (11.03. 01:30)
Under
1.70
Russell Westbrook (-24.5+)-Oklahoma City-Chicago (11.03. 02:00)
Under
1.85
Monta Ellis (-23.5+)-Golden State-Dallas (11.03. 04:30)
Under
1.85
Carlos Boozer (-14.5+)-Chicago-Utah (11.03. 02:00)
Over
1.70
Washington vs Portland Trail Blazers (11.03. 01:00)
1
2.50
Steve Nash (-13.5+)-Phoenix-Memphis (11.03. 03:00)
Under
1.85

EXCHANGE RATE: 84.6301

One play looks solid for a high-stakes bet
+11.5 Washington - I think Washington covers this; Portland played yesterday and they aren't exactly playing great on the road.
+16.5 New Orleans vs Minnesota - Rubio is banged up and Kevin Love has back issues, so he probably won't push it too hard.
+9.5 Toronto - Detroit played a tough one last night while Toronto was resting, plus Toronto beat them by double digits recently.
=Total 2.08 in the parlay

It feels pretty pointless for me to even bother typing out what I played, considering you all have already picked it apart and analyzed everything anyway. 🙂

Just to keep it brief:

Danny Granger is the safer bet, in my opinion.
Carlos Boozer more.
Derrick Rose facing off against Russell Westbrook is what worries me most. If Westbrook starts playing out of his mind, it's going to be pure chaos—especially since Rose has been struggling through these last few games.

Arthur Hill2 said:Regarding the bolded part, 😕

We all agree on Boozer, though we should probably mention his history with Utah. 🙂

Honestly, ever since I first saw him play, I just haven't been able to trust the guy.
It’s hard to explain, but he just doesn't... click with me.
He played poorly on Thursday—really poorly.

Actually, I was looking up how he performed against Utah last year, but I couldn't find it.
Regardless, 14.5 seems way too low, and honestly, I'm glad it stays that way.😁

graniteotter6 said:Honestly, ever since I first saw him play, I just haven't bought what he's selling.
It simply isn't my thing.
He played poorly on Thursday—really poorly.

Yeah, I actually went looking for his stats from when he played against Utah last year, but I couldn't find them.
Regardless, 14.5 is way too low, and frankly, I'm glad it is.😁

Look, Joakim Noah is an energy player; he creates advantages through pure effort.

Unfortunately, Dwight Howard puts him in his pocket every single game, so you didn't exactly pick the best matchup here😁.

A 10/10 average for a center is fine, especially considering zero offensive plays are run specifically for him, and his competition for rebounds is a top-tier guy like Carlos Boozer.

EDIT: It looks like Noah won't be playing tonight:

Joakim Noah is ill and a game-time decision for Bulls vs Utah. Omer starts if Noah can't go.