NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

Nicholas Chase34 said:Coach Mark Jackson mentioned that Stephen Curry might have actually suited up for Saturday's game, given that he was dealing with nothing more than a mild right ankle sprain. I guess we'll just have to see if Jackson's expectations for Curry hold up. To play. on Sunday. 🤷

Go to hell, play. 😂
On a slightly more serious note, I’m a firm believer in the "keep going while it works" philosophy—you don't just stop mid-stream because you feel like it. I'm talking about Al Jamison here, so my pen is still moving and the transcription continues.

graniteotter6 said:Screw you, play 😂
On a slightly more serious note, I'm a huge believer in riding the wave while it lasts—you don't just sit out because "one game might be it," right? I'm talking about Al Jamison here, so the logic holds up and everything is being noted down properly.

He got injured again yesterday, so I honestly don't think he's gonna suit up, and even if he does, we aren't going to see much of him anyway.😉

Honestly, today is just one of those days where thinking clearly feels impossible. It's a struggle to put together anything remotely intelligent.

New York vs Philadelphia

I don't see the New York Knicks hitting the over on 98 points against Philadelphia. Philly's defense is playing at an elite level right now, and I'm betting the Knicks end up landing well below that mark.

My pick: New York under 98.5

Orlando vs Indiana

Indiana had a brutal matchup against Miami last night. I think that overtime really took the wind out of their sails. Orlando looks rested, and they might just ride that momentum to steamroll a tired Indiana squad. With Turkoglu sitting out, they probably won't lean as hard on the three-point line and might focus more on feeding Dwight Howard. There's a good shot he goes over his total tonight, though I’m staying away from him—if they start chucking 30 or 35 threes again, he's going to get swallowed up.

My picks: Orlando vs LA

Los Angeles vs Boston

I don't know what's going on with LA lately. They can't seem to pull off a decent win to save their lives. Given how much they've been struggling recently, I'm thinking they won't beat Boston by more than 6.

My pick: Boston +6

The total odds are looking pretty weak, but I'm stuck on what to actually put money on. Anyone got a solid suggestion?

EDIT:

The New York under 98.5 was a total scam. Absolute trash.
I'm throwing in the towel for today.

Carmelo's just being silly, I guess...

Those pathetic Knicks... I'd say bet big against them, considering how many turnovers they're coughing up. Even Jeremy Lin had an off night. This whole "Linsanity" hype train is going to derail pretty fast once people realize he can barely find his way to the rim.

The euphoria hasn't really died down even after the Miami game. Look, he just can't produce against those heavy-hitting defenses. He isn't Rose 😢

Andre Iguodala does a solid job shadowing Carmelo Anthony, but still, those last 7 points coming from the free throw line... 🥳

Lucky me, just come to me 🙂

https://www.lottery.com/winning-results

I managed to land a single parlay yesterday, went through without any issues.
Not quite a full ticket, though; after two games went under the total, I decided to pivot to LA vs GSW.🙂
Today, Phoenix looks pretty solid to me. They tend to play exceptionally well at home against weaker teams and usually walk away with the win. Minnesota seems a bit lost right now, so...
For the rest of the board, I’d probably lean toward Wall under, given he's playing on the road and the margin at the sportsbook is 19.5. 😁
Also, the total for Charlotte vs New Orleans doesn't look easy to clear either (184.5). Both sides really need to find their rhythm and start scoring again (even if that goes against the whole "when it's working, don't change it" theory).
Generally speaking, I've noticed that most of the point totals this week seem to be leaning toward the over rather than the under.
Just sitting here with my pen ready—where are you guys leaning today? 🤷

graniteotter6 said:I placed a single parlay yesterday, and it went through without any trouble at all.
I'm not even looking at the lists anymore. After seeing two games in a row go under the total, I’ve decided to pivot my strategy. I'm putting my money on LA vs Golden State.🙂
Personally, Phoenix is looking pretty solid to me right now. They’ve been dominant at home, consistently handling business against anything less than elite competition. Meanwhile, Minnesota seems like they've completely lost their footing lately, so I wouldn't be surprised if this goes their way.
For the rest of the board, I’d personally lean toward the Wall under. Given he's playing on the road, the odds just don't feel right, especially since the margin in the HL is sitting at 19.5. 😁
I’m not entirely convinced that an over/under of 184.5 for the Charlotte vs New Orleans game is a safe bet. For that number to hit, both teams really need to find their rhythm and actually start scoring consistently—though I realize that goes against the whole "don't fix what isn't broken" theory of momentum.
I’ve been noticing a general trend this week: the over bets on total points seem to be consistently beating out the unders.
Sitting here with my pen ready. What's everyone up to today? 🤷

I’ve been sitting here weighing the matchup between the Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks, trying to make sense of it all. On paper, Chicago seems to have the edge simply because they had a day of rest to recover, which can be everything in this league. If you look at the stats, they technically look better, and they did manage to pull off a win in their last outing, though it was anything but convincing—a gritty, narrow 105-103 victory that left me wondering if they can actually sustain that kind of momentum. It was a razor-thin margin, and frankly, it makes me skeptical. I'm struggling to decide if that win was a sign of grit or just pure luck. I’d love to hear what everyone else thinks about this one; let me know your take. 😁

Another headache of a betting line today!

Just did a quick scan and saw the total for San Antonio is set at 109.5. Feels way too high to me, what do you guys think?

Phoenix should take down Minnesota; they won't have Rubio.

I've got my eye on the Clippers and Boston. Think Boston can actually show up and avoid losing to the Clippers by more than 6?

Thanks!

..thinking Ilyasov over 13.5 today...
Back on February 19, 2012, they played each other and he dropped 29 points. Today, Robin Lopez isn't in the lineup like he was then. Doesn't change everything since he doesn't play his exact position, but hey, one less big man under the rim helps...
He’s been playing solid lately. If Deron stays out, you could even look at the Milwaukee Bucks to win this one...

Edit
They've taken down the Brooklyn Nets in 4 of their last 9 games...

Taking it easy today with some picks I think might hit:

Al Maggette under 22.5
Wall under 19.5
Derrick Rose over 23.5

👍

ruggedgull32 said:..going over 13.5 for Ilyasov today...
Back on Feb 19, 2012, they played each other and he dropped 29 points. Robin Lopez isn't in the lineup for this one, which might matter—even if he doesn't play his exact position—since there's one less big man under the rim.
He's been playing well lately. If Deron isn't out there, you could even look at the Bucks to win...

Where are you getting these margins from?

In the lottery, Ilyasov is sitting at 20.5🤣🤣

Hey, what do you think about this:

Kevin Love over 25.5... without Rubio, their chances look pretty slim against Phoenix, so he's gotta step up big time, I don't really see anyone else doing it...
Jeremy Lin under 15.5... I honestly feel like Chicago's defense might be a bit too much for him to handle...

thanks in advance 😉 cheers

Look, I've got some stuff I gotta take care of today, so there won't be any deep dives or analysis from me right now🤷

Brooks vs Rose
Rose over 23.5
Jack over 16.5
Wall vs Rose
Millsap over 16.5
Love under 27.5
Chris Paul under 21.5

A 6/7 system play, just a little Favorite bet here

It's my first time using this sportsbook and man, I had no idea they have these ridiculous rules where you can't pick more than one player from the same team and mix them with other squads! Can you believe that? What kind of nonsense is that?🤷

Brandon Clark5 said:Hey, what do you think about this:

Kevin Love over 25... honestly, without Rubio, their chances look pretty slim against Phoenix. Love is really going to have to carry the load here because I just don't see anyone else stepping up to that level...
Jeremy Lin under 16... I've got a feeling the Chicago defense is going to be way too much for him to handle...

Thanks in advance 😉 cheers

Hmm... looking at it this way, Love without Rubio is going to miss out on a ton of those pick-and-roll opportunities where he usually picks up all his points. Even though Frye hasn't looked like a defensive powerhouse lately, he’s actually done a decent job keeping Love in check during the last few games. I'm not sure—if they were playing at home, maybe, but hitting that line on the road feels like a stretch to me.

As for Lin, he’s showing more and more that he doesn't really have that reliable perimeter shot; most of his production comes from easy layups. I just don't see that working against Chicago, since they protect the paint and the space under the rim so well. Plus, he's playing away from home without the crowd behind him, and we've already seen how Lin can struggle when he goes up against high-level players. 🤷

For today, those three plays I mentioned earlier are really catching my eye:
Al Maggette under 22.5(that line feels a bit inflated probably because he's been playing well lately, but I don't think he'll find much breathing room tonight against Luis Ariza, who's a solid defender, not to mention Maggette is on the road, enough said 😛),
Wall under 19.5(Wall is definitely one of those guys who thrives at home; he's easily about 30% less effective on the road. San Antonio is bringing their strongest lineup, and they might wrap this game up before the fourth quarter even starts, which could leave Wall riding the bench.
Derrick Rose over 23.5 (we saw what Sweet Lou did to the Knicks' defense—he could have easily cruised to +35, but he played a bit too relaxed and ended up stuck at 28, basically because the point guard defense was non-existent. Rose loves playing against the Knicks, so this should be another walk in the park for him, especially with Luol Deng being such a huge question mark right now).☕

shadowjackal27 said:Where on earth are you getting these lines from?

In the US Lottery, Ilyasov is at 20.5 🤣🤣

...so I see that's the line they have over there in the Lottery... but if you're betting live in America, the line is what I told you....🤷
The guys at the big US sportsbooks set their lines based on how players are performing right this second. They don't even bother looking at the actual season stats, like him averaging 12.5...

Phoenix vs Minnesota

With Rubio out, I don't think the Wolves' offense is going to be nearly as efficient. They probably won't hit that 97.5 mark, especially since Phoenix has been looking a bit sharper lately.

My pick: Minnesota under 97.5

Amare Stoudemire under 18.5

Against a solid defense like Chicago's, there's not much to look forward to here. I'm thinking he stays under 19 points. Jeremy Lin might be running alongside him, but even though he hasn't been much lately, I still think 16 points is a stretch for him.

Derrick Rose over 23.5

What else can I say? It feels like an easy one tonight. He should clear that line without much trouble.

Derrick Rose is a tricky one; he reads everything you guys post here and then plays the perfect counter

Arthur Hill2 said:Derrick Rose is such a wild card, man; he’s basically lurking in the shadows reading everything you guys post just so he can play the exact opposite of what everyone's expecting.

🤣 Derrick Rose, if you’re reading this, come on man, please tell me you aren't going to drop 24 points on the New York Knicks! 😂 😍