NBA Betting: Vol. 2

I knew they weren't going to show up on DEFENSE, but this? This is just straight-up pathetic what they're doing here 🤮

I doubt there’s any significant money on the line here; this feels more like an exhibition game 🙂

Ethan Kern11 said:I expected them to ditch the defense, but this? This level of negligence is just laughable. 🤮

They’ve really tightened things up late in the game, sitting at 149:152.

Look, they aren't—obviously, this was some massive, high-stakes parlay, so of course it hurts.

But whatever, at least I got some entertainment out of watching the game. ☕

Andrew Hall46 said:They’re really tightening up right at the end, sitting around 149:152

🤣🤣🤣

Right? I mean, they actually managed to shut down two straight possessions! 🙏

Heh, well, look at that. Unbelievable.
The second quarter absolutely destroyed us. We managed a decent enough 67 in the first, then suddenly we're sitting at 90. 🤦🙂
Why does it feel like we just play the exact same way every single time? 🤷

graniteotter6 said:Heh, look at this mess. Absolutely unbelievable.
The second quarter completely screwed us. We were holding our own with a 67 in the first, then suddenly it's 90. 🤦🙂
Why does everyone play the exact same way every single time? 🤷

We ride together, we die together 🙂

Can't wait for the rest of the NBA season to kick off ☕

Anyone seen the odds for tomorrow? 😲

Indiana-Golden State W. 1 1.35
Chicago-New Orleans Hornets 1 1.05
Houston-Toronto Raptors 1 1.25
Milwaukee-Washington Wizards 1.25
Dallas-New Jersey Nets 1 1.10
LAC Clippers-Minnesota 1 1.25

No way in hell they all hit. 😁

This Milwaukee squad is really starting to grate on my nerves; I can already see them heading straight for a massive slump against the spread 😁.

Maybe if you're looking at the matchup between the Detroit Pistons and the Philadelphia 76ers, there's some value in taking the 76ers at 1.50. I mean, it's probably a solid play, but who knows? Things change fast in this league. Just my two cents.
8/10
The 76ers have been looking absolutely locked in defensively this season—seriously, they’re easily one of the elite squads in the league right now when it comes to stopping people. It feels like whenever they face anyone on paper who isn't a heavy hitter, they just handle business pretty effortlessly. On the flip side, Detroit is struggling big time lately. They’ve got some major issues, especially with Will Bynum being listed as probable tonight given his injury situation. There's also some uncertainty around whether Elton Brand will suit up, but I guess there's a decent chance he might actually play. Honestly, though, Iggy is playing out of his mind right now; he's basically a defensive nightmare for whoever he's guarding. He's been killing it on offense too, usually dropping around 12 points and constantly hovering right on the edge of a triple-double. Since Andre Iguodala was the only one from this group making an All-Star appearance, I don't think fatigue is going to be much of an issue for the rotation. Philly is finally heading back home after a rough road trip through the West where things went sideways, but I've got a feeling they’re going to get back in the win column tonight.

I’m looking at the Dallas Mavericks vs. New Jersey Nets matchup, specifically thinking about that Over 188.5 line sitting at 1.85. Honestly, I feel like we might see some serious scoring here. Both teams have enough offensive firepower that if they get into a rhythm early, this could easily blow past that number. I guess it depends on how the pace settles, but I'm leaning towards a high-scoring affair. Maybe it's a bit of a gamble, but I'm feeling optimistic about the total points.
5/10
I’m thinking about taking the plunge on Dirk Nowitzki over 24.5 points at 1.85. I mean, honestly, he's been looking pretty lethal lately, so maybe it's a solid play? I guess we'll see if the magic is still there tonight.
4/10
The Nets are finally starting to look like a real team, which is a massive change from how they looked at the start of the season. I mean, watching Deron Williams play is just pure talent on display right now. And Morrow? He’s just casually draining threes like it’s nothing. Plus, having Brook Lopez back in the lineup is huge for them. This Nets squad definitely has enough firepower to put up around 100 points, but man, their defense is a total mess—they just give up way too many buckets. On the other side, Dallas is finally finding their rhythm, mostly because Dirkules is absolutely cooking. He’s playing like he did during last year's playoffs, and he's been consistently going over his scoring lines these past few games. Now, there's a bit of a question mark for tonight since Kris Humphries might not be available, and without him to help shadow Dirk alongside Brook, things could get dicey. There's a pretty good chance the Mavs will pull off another win using those wings. The biggest issue for Dallas is that the roster is getting pretty old; they really need a generational shift soon. As for this season, they’re offensively aggressive, averaging about 99 points per game while giving up roughly 97. I went with these picks because the lines feel a little low to me—I'm leaning toward the over for the total game score.

Milwaukee-Washington
under 201.5 @ 1.85

The line feels way too high when you actually look at how these two squads play, especially since Washington has been struggling big time to find any rhythm offensively on the road, averaging just about 90.1 points per game. Milwaukee isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard like a powerhouse either, usually hovering around 97.8 points when they're playing at home.
When you look at the games where Milwaukee comes out on top, they tend to put up around 101.7 points while keeping their defense tight enough to allow only 92.5. Looking back at their head-to-head matchups, they haven't even cracked the 190 mark in their last six meetings, let alone hitting 200. Usually, one side just falls short, and more often than not, that's Washington. Thinking back to their last meeting in Milwaukee back in December, the total was set at 186.5, so seeing this massive jump feels a little suspicious to me. Still, there's definitely some solid value in taking the under here, because realistically, I don't see this total going much higher than 195.🤷

wiredcanyon39 said:The Dallas offensive engine is finally firing—mostly thanks to Dirkules, who’s channeling his old postseason magic and staying consistently over the mark lately. Given that Kris Humphries might be a question mark for tonight's matchup, leaving Brook to handle the interior alone is a risk. There's a solid chance the Mavs pull off another win with Dirk playing out on the wing. Their real issue is aging; they're going to need a generational shift eventually. They've been somewhat erratic offensively this season, averaging about 99 points per game while giving up roughly 97. I picked these lines because the spreads feel a bit tight—especially the over for the total score.

Where did you get that number for Dallas' points allowed?
I know they're one of the top defensive units in the league this year, so I double-checked—they're only giving up 90.82 points per game. 🤷

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortab...able1.html#top

Tip 1.
Balance 0.00

I decided to take Chicago -13.5 tonight against the Hornets. I won't list all my picks here since most of them are essentially random selections, but this one is solid. Rose is playing at an elite level right now. While the Hornets have been on a bit of a roll lately—picking up three wins in their last five games—I expect Chicago to cover this spread easily, likely winning by about 16 or 17 points. The Hornets will be missing their top guy, Gordon, which hurts. There's talk that Reggie Hamilton might return for the Bulls, though rumors suggest they might sit him to keep him fresh for the Spurs game tomorrow. In their last matchup, the Bulls dominated in New Orleans, walking away with a 23-point victory.

Unit Stake: 5/10

Odds: 1.85

(I've decided to start keeping my own independent log outside of the SPAT analyses. I want to track exactly how much of what I write on this thread actually holds water. 🤣)

James Taylor3 said:Hey man, what’s the deal with how many points the Dallas Mavericks are actually giving up?
I know they're supposed to be one of the elite defensive units this season, so I went looking for the stats—looks like they're only allowing about 90.82 points per game. 🤷

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortab...able1.html#top

Actually, if you check Hoop Data, it's closer to 96.
Oh, and by the way, I ended up taking Dirk 23.5 in my Hat Trick.

wiredcanyon39 said:If you check Hoop Data, it’s actually closer to 96.
I actually went ahead and took Dirk 23.5 for the hat trick.

See, that isn't just their average points allowed per game, it's actually their average points allowed per 100 possessions, which is basically what (Defensive Efficiency - the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions.) measures.

And if you look at the standings, the Dallas Mavericks are actually ranked super high in that category—they're sitting at third in the whole NBA. 🤷

Man, after taking four whole days off from the NBA, we’re finally back at it, and I am seriously hoping we kick off this new run with some massive wins instead of the usual headache😍

Jamison Dirk 23.5 1.85
Boozer over 15.5 1.85
Griffin over 21.5 1.85
Granger over 18.5 1.85
Evans over 17.5 1.85
Nowitzki under 24.5 1.85 SS☕

Paul Pierce over 18.5 1.85
Jennings over 18.5 1.85
DeRozan under 17.5 1.85
Williams Dirk 23.5 1.85
Jefferson under 19.5 1.85 HL🙂

I’m certainly not seeing any reason to get overly excited about the current offerings.
I think I’ll take today off; I’ll let them figure out how to breathe again after the All-Star break.
The only one worth looking at for me is Klay Thompson; everything else looks pretty uninspiring.
Maybe there’s some kind of pattern with those who didn't play in the All-Star game, though I guess we'll see.

What do you guys think about Iguodala hitting over 12?

My bad on that mix-up regarding the Dallas Mavericks, but honestly, I’m still leaning towards the over—as soon as I saw those odds, I was pretty much sold.

Evans over Dirk 23.5
New Jersey +10.5 or maybe just take the second half spread of -2
Indiana

☕