NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Jerry Grant51 said:Miami really should take this one—though they don't seem to be playing at full capacity lately. They keep coasting. Against Boston, that young kid Cole absolutely tore them apart, and last LeBron and Bosh were struggling too. Dwyane Wade is playing terribly. I was actually thinking about leaning more into LeBron today—matching up Rose against Wade

Looking closer, though, Wade is still scoring enough against these guys, so I’ll pass on that move for now. For the moment, I'm calling a Miami win and an Atlanta win on one leg; the second leg will be LeBron on the over, and I'll likely add a few more props to each.

It's LeBron—not "lebrone."

Also, there were some rumors floating around about Wade being injured.

James Taylor3, what’s your take on Dallas, Boston, and Atlanta playing in a high-stakes matchup?

What’s even the point in rooting for Dallas? It's obvious that Chandler still hasn't found his rhythm yet.

Emily Sanchez11 said:Thoughts on Miami? And which of these matchups look tight enough to maybe hunt for a contra-bet?

Looking at Minnesota vs Miami, honestly... I think there's some value in trying to play halftime/fulltime 1/2—DraftKings has it sitting at @5,50. Minnesota had a bunch of home games last season where they basically kept their opponents on the ropes for two, sometimes even three quarters, before everything just falls apart... and they collapse. Miami, on the other hand, is coming off a rough road trip in Charlotte where they were barely hanging on until the final buzzer. Even with a day of rest, you have to wonder if that grind leaves a mark... probably not enough to make them lose outright, but they might come out sluggish. Also, wouldn't be surprising if Miličić finds himself in early foul trouble after like... 30 seconds of play. 🤷

Confidence level 2-3/10.

Games played today

High stakes:

Orlando
Dallas
Boston

$1.75:

Philadelphia
Hornets
Minnesota/Miami (108.5) - Miami under
Atlanta/New Jersey (81.5) - New Jersey over
Jamison A (-17.5+) - under
Steve Nash (-13.5+) - over
Jennings B. (-20.5+) - under
Derrick Rose (-24.5+) - under

GL HF 🙂

Mmmmm, I'm feeling quite good about the Bulls @1.96 today. 🙂
The Clippers are playing their first home game after beating the Warriors—who had a desperate finish and struggled from deep—and then suffering a fairly convincing loss to the Spurs. Their starting five is high quality but lacks cohesion, and the bench feels thin; only Mo Williams can be considered a truly useful backup. Defensively, they look porous. While Michael Jordan provides decent rim protection when he's on the floor, the defense collapses once he sits. The Bulls, however, boast a strong starting lineup supplemented by solid bench depth in Asik, Gibson, Watson, Brewer, and Korver. They are undoubtedly the superior defensive unit, though I am slightly concerned by their high turnover rate in recent games. Looking at the matchup, Derrick Rose holds a 4-0 edge over Chris Paul, which isn't insignificant; I suspect the visitors will react better in a tight fourth quarter. So far this season, the Bulls lead in rebounds and assists per game, so in my view, they should be favorites by 2-3 points.

*I'll join in keeping my own tracker. Currently, I'm sitting at 1-1 (Pacers, Warriors). Stakes will be one unit unless noted otherwise, making my current standing -0.05

Today's parlay

Ludwigsburg vs Miami over 66.5 at 1.82
Miami under 107.5 at 1.82
Augustin under 19.5 at 1.85
Johnson over 17.5 at 1.85
Howard under 22.5 at 1.85
Indiana vs Cleveland spread -9.5 at 1.85
ps. just ignore that first couple of picks🤷

Charles Long63 said:James Taylor3, what's your take on Dallas, Boston, and Atlanta for a high-stakes play?

In my view, all three bets should hit—but as for playing them for a massive stake... 🤷
Three separate plays feels like too much exposure for one big bet; I’d stick to two. That's my move, at least.

Dallas hasn't found their footing yet—last night was a disaster. Carter hit a three to put them ahead with just 1.5 seconds left, only for Durant to sink a buzzer-beater to give Oklahoma the win. Dallas has depth—maybe not quite as deep as last year, but still enough—and they should be plenty strong against Toronto, who is easily one of the worst squads in the league right now.

Deron Williams looks completely off his game, which explains why the Nets are struggling this much. Plus, Atlanta absolutely dismantled them in New Jersey a couple of days ago. Atlanta started the season with two convincing wins. Sure, the competition has been weak, but let's be real—the Hawks have a solid roster with decent strength distributed across all positions.
All signs point to them beating the Nets again tonight.

Like Dallas, Boston is still looking for their first win. Detroit is the perfect target here—a team that’s essentially stagnating and slowly falling apart after last season. The Celtics are the more talented side and they really ought to start winning, assuming they aren't planning on sweating their playoff positioning until the final week. This season is shorter than usual, after all. I'm not sure if Paul Pierce is back in the lineup tonight, but even without him, this should be a home win.

Thanks, I think they'll play
Hornets?

I think the Bulls should take the win against the Clippers tonight. The Clippers still haven't quite found their rhythm, and their defense looks incredibly disjointed right now.

Griffin should probably go over the total as well. To be honest, he’s facing Carlos Boozer on defense, and that's a matchup where Boozer just doesn't provide much resistance.

The odds on Atlanta at 1.15 and Boston at 1.25 just don't offer any real value, I suppose, unless you are absolutely 90% certain about a victory—and let’s be honest, that’s never the case because someone always chokes these days...
If we were looking at 1.30 and 1.45, then maybe we could actually have a conversation about placing a significant wager.
In my view, putting down large sums on such minuscule coefficients is essentially long-term suicide. You should only do that when you are completely sure of the outcome, which happens perhaps a few times a month, rather than just blindly picking random scraps from today's NBA slate.

Atlanta over 93.5
Miami
Dallas
+I need one more player... LeBron James or Mavericks right now? 🤷

In my book, the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics are locks. They’re both looking to snap a losing streak while playing at home, so they should take care of business. Also, the Atlanta Falcons should handle a weak Brooklyn Nets squad easily.

Charles Long63 said:I'm calling it now: Dallas and Boston are locks. They're both winless and playing at home, so they've gotta pull it off. Also, the Atlanta Falcons should take care of those weak Brooklyn Nets.

100%? In the NBA? 😍

The Atlanta Falcons play in the NFL, not the NBA. ☕

Alright, Atlanta☕

I honestly don't get why everyone's betting against the Timberwolves this season—you know they aren't winning it all, yet people are practically begging for them to lose by more than 8 points 🙂

I'll drop a list tonight of which matchups you should bet against if you really want to make some money!🤣

3w/4l ; -1,31 units ; ROI: -5.46%

Dallas Mavericks - Toronto Raptors
Pick: Dallas -9.5

Odds: 2.13

Stake: 7/10

Last year's champions have had a miserable start to the season, sitting at 3 losses. They’ve surrendered over 100 points in all three games—something that wasn't exactly common for them last year. It's clear the roster turnover has taken a toll, both on their rhythm and their morale. I’d specifically point to the loss of Tyson Chandler; he provided much-needed grit in the paint. This year they're running Haywood at center, who isn't anywhere near Tyson's level.
Furthermore, the offense lacks the fluidity and cohesive playmaking that defined them last season. The newcomers, Vince Carter and especially Odom, haven't integrated well—Odom, in particular, has put up miserable numbers and pathetic shooting percentages over these first three games.

The Toronto Raptors remain one of the worst teams in the league this year. If there's anyone worth watching on that roster, it's just DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, and the solid rebounder Amir Johnson. Most of the rest of the roster consists of European players who lack significant depth. The Raptors are defensively soft—especially Bargnani—and they are particularly bad on the road. Sure, they managed to beat a similarly lackluster Cleveland team earlier this season, but that doesn't change the fact that they aren't a team anyone wants to face on the road.

Dallas boasts much more depth, superior individual talent, home-court advantage, and likely a massive chip on their shoulder—after all, they are the defending champs and the media is currently having a field day mocking them. All those factors favor Dallas over the Canadians.
I think this matchup is the perfect opportunity for the Mavericks to grab their first win of the season. After that dramatic finish against Oklahoma last night, a convincing victory would help wash away the bitter taste of this sluggish start—both for the team and their fans. That's why I'm leaning in with a higher stake by my standards.

1.44 makes Atlanta Falcons the favorites to take this quarter. If I'm not tripping, the Brooklyn Nets have been choking after the first 12 minutes of every game, even the one where they actually managed to beat Washington
Plus, when these two teams last faced off, Atlanta absolutely dismantled them in the first quarter, winning it 28-11.

my picks
Indiana-Cleveland 1
Boston-Detroit 1
Atlanta-New Jersey 1
Minnesota-Miami 2
Washington-Phoenix 17,5
LA Clippers-Chicago Bulls 1
Derrick Rose-less than 24,5

might actually hit