NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Shooting 2-for-21 from two-point range during the second quarter

Kevin Durant at 11—tough luck, he’s probably not hitting 30 by the end...

64 points on the board at halftime in Chicago-Atlanta. 🙏

Live betting action

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks (Jan 4, 01:55 AM)
2
4.80

🙂

+Utah and St. Louis

Everything seems to be going my way right now, and honestly, I’m just crossing my fingers that the universe keeps things moving in this direction. 😁

crimsonangler1 said:I'm also waiting on Chicago.

Which betting site has Derrick Rose at 22.5? I'm feeling that.

DraftKings

William Price66 said:Pau Gasol (DraftKings) vs Boozer -1
Chicago-Atlanta (97.5) - Under
Lakers-Rockets 1
US odds: 3.84
Lower/medium stake

Past 😁

There are just way too many 26.5 point margins on Derrick Rose at DraftKings right now.

He logged 44 minutes yesterday, playing through the entire second half, and I honestly think his job will be much easier today since he won't have to fight his way back from a 19-point deficit.

A few days ago, just for the hell of it, I decided to flip a coin to guess if a player would go over or under their point total—and I actually nailed it. The coin hit 9 out of 11 times 🙄
Last night I ran the "experiment" again. Out of 20 players, 2 were canceled, 6 missed, and 12 landed perfectly 🙂
Unknown if I should start betting this way 🤣

What kind of odds are international betting sites offering for player over/unders? Because what we've got here is a joke—they just rob you blind. They’ll give you 1.85 and then slap on another 5% in hidden fees. 🙂

Tony Parker over 17.5

I actually think there's something positive about the fact that the stats aren't really backing this up right now... It's a bit of a trap because he's sitting at 0-5 against this specific line this season, but I see it as an opportunity since he hasn't finished a season averaging under 16 PPG in his career, and seeing as he's currently sitting at 13.2, those numbers are bound to climb back up eventually... My main reasoning here is that with Manu Ginobili out for a while, someone is going to have to step up and absorb those extra 10 shots and 20 points he usually provides, plus they're facing the Golden State Warriors who haven't been looking particularly stout on the defensive end lately, and honestly, I remember a similar situation a few years back where Parker just exploded for massive games, like back in that 08/09 season when San Antonio was playing without Manu for large stretches and he ended up averaging 22 PPG, which was a huge jump from his usual 17 or 18... So, I feel like things could easily trend upward in the coming days now that Ginobili is out long-term, so I'm going to try and grab this before the trend fully kicks in and we see how it plays out

Arthur Hill2 said:There are just way too many 26.5 point lines on Derrick Rose at DraftKings right now.

He played 44 minutes yesterday—basically the entire second half—so I’m thinking he might actually have an easier job today instead of trying to dig himself out of a 19-point hole.

If I remember correctly, he dropped 21 points in the final stretch and tacked on maybe 4 or 5 assists. He was playing out of his mind. It'll be tough for him to see that much floor time again today, though if he can handle it, we all know what he's capable of.

shadowgardener10 said:How high are the player over/under odds usually at international betting sites? Because what we have here is terrible—they basically rob you. They offer 1.85, then tack on another 5% in manipulative fees. 🙂

It depends—the lines fluctuate quite a bit there, but they start out much higher than our local 1.85. At DraftKings, I think the opening is around 1.953, give or take.

Dallas -8

It’s high time we actually back some favorites and live them up, and honestly, I’ve been looking forward to a matchup like this all week... Phoenix just isn't hitting their stride right now, and even when they were playing decent ball, they usually ended up dropping these games by double digits. Dallas is sitting at 2-4 after a pretty rough start, so there’s absolutely no room for complacency here... They managed to take down Oklahoma City in their last outing and had a nice day of rest to recover, plus having guys like Vince Carter, whoever else is on that rotation, and Baron Davis on the bench gives me enough confidence that we won't see a scary backdoor cover, which is my biggest worry since they have a massive Texas derby coming up tomorrow... hopefully, Phoenix doesn't fall apart in the final quarter and let the other side sneak in a +10 win at the buzzer... either way, if you ask me, this looks like a classic blowout scenario, and -8 feels like it might be about 3 or 4 points too low...

Denver -xy

The spread hasn't dropped yet, but whatever it ends up being...
In the end, the shooters missed yesterday, Memphis covered -6.5 and everyone was hoping the Sacramento Kings might pull an upset to set things up for a comeback today, but man, those guys just got crushed by 20 points... so now they're sitting there with two blowout losses on the road, and they have to deal with a back-to-back in Denver, way up in the mountains, so I really think they're going to get rolled again big time...

Phila around 1.75-1.80

New Orleans is really struggling with the injury bug lately, and they've been playing without Ben Gordon so far, but now Luis Ariza is also dealing with something, making both of them questionable for tonight... Ben Gordon will probably suit up, but even if they both play, I still think these odds are solid... if they don't, the line will probably drop down to 1.35 on most sites😁... nobody seems to have posted it online yet, so I'll just hold steady at 1.80 while others are hovering around 1.75, so let's see how it unfolds...

Terry Rogers57 said:Dallas -8

It’s about time we actually see some favorites live up to the hype—I've been waiting a week for a matchup like this. Phoenix is weak; even when they were decent, they usually left here with a backdoor loss. Dallas is sitting at 2-4 after a miserable start, so there's no room for complacency now. They beat Oklahoma City last game, had a day off, and having Vince Carter, Odom, and Baron Davis on the bench provides at least some security against a backdoor cover—which is my main concern since they have a tough Texas derby tomorrow. Hopefully, Phoenix doesn't fall apart again and give up +10 in the final quarter. Regardless, this looks like a classic blowout to me; -8 feels like it's 3 or 4 points too low...

Denver -xy

No spread set yet, but whatever it ends up being
Last night, the shooters missed and Memphis covered -6.5, hoping the Kings might pull an upset today, but instead, they just got dismantled by 20. That means they're 0-2 on the road with two blowouts under their belt, and now they're facing a back-to-back in Denver, high up in the mountains. They're likely going to get crushed again...

Phila around 1.75-1.80

New Orleans is struggling with injuries. They played without Ben Gordon until now, and now Luis Ariza is out too—both are questionable for tonight. Gordon will probably play, and if both suit up, those odds are solid. If not, the line will probably drop to 1.35 online 😁...nobody has posted it online yet; one guy is holding firm at 1.80, while others are at 1.75, so let's see

Odom, Carter, even Baron Davis are in terrible shape; their shooting percentages are abysmal—they can't hit anything. 🤷
Then again, who else is going to take it easy on the Suns? 😁

Man, why on earth do you use so many English loanwords? 🤷

Nothing personal, I just have an allergy to that kind of phrasing. 😉

James Taylor3 said:Man, why on earth are you using so many English words? 🤷

Nothing personal, I just have a bit of an allergy to that kind of phrasing... 😉

Honestly, I don't really know, maybe it's just because American feels a bit lacking when it comes to specific sports terminology... 😕

Deron Williams will not play on Unknown.

Terry Rogers57 said:Honestly, I have no idea—mostly because English just handles sports terminology much more naturally. 😕

Deron Williams will not play on Unknown.

There are enough expressions if you actually use your imagination.

Especially when dealing with "questionable" status or betting odds. 😁

Instead of saying "big time," you could always say "total blowout." 😁

I didn't realize Deron Williams was out today. This could easily be a blowout—a massive win for the Boston Celtics. 😬

Boston-New Jersey first quarter winner @ 1.4
Ray Allen under 17.5 points @ 1.85
@ 2.59 Unknown

Unknown ☕

I’m thinking Derrick Rose goes under 26.5 points. I don't know, maybe he lands somewhere around 24 or so.

3w/2l (-3,4 units)

#6
San Antonio(h-13,5) - Golden State Warriors 2 1,30
8/10

San Antonio just looks lost whenever Manu Ginobili isn't on the floor, struggling equally on both ends of the court... Last season, they missed him for three games and dropped all three. If Lee returns to help out the Golden State Warriors, I don't see them blowing anyone out by 14 or more points...

#7
Boston-New Jersey Nets 1/1 1,33
7/10

Boston is steadily making up ground after those games where Paul Pierce was sidelined, picking up wins against Detroit and twice against Washington. A win tonight would actually put them above a .500 record for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the New Jersey Nets have dropped five straight, and they're missing Brook Lopez and Kris Humphries—they might even be without Deron Williams tonight. They've lost seven of their last eight trips to Boston, including both matchups last year. Anything other than a smooth Boston victory would be a massive shock...

#8
Denver-Sacramento 1/1 1,42
7/10

Denver hasn't tasted defeat at home yet this season (3-0), and Sacramento hasn't managed a single win there in their last five attempts. The Nuggets also come in with an extra day of rest, whereas Sacramento played last night (a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies) and they're stuck playing again tomorrow night...

#9
Washington under 88.5 points 1,85
5/10

Here we go again with my obsession with Orlando, though frankly, I only follow this because of how much I despise the Washington Wizards and Madison Square Garden... The Wizards have lost six straight to Orlando, and over the last 19 seasons, their record against them is a dismal 6-33. Orlando remains undefeated at home this season, and the Wizards' shooting has been pathetic lately. They're averaging a mere 85.2 points per game, and John Wall is shooting a miserable 31.7%...

6w/8l ; +1.10 units; ROI: +1.86%

Boston-New Jersey
Pick: Boston -12.5

Odds: 1.85

Betting site: Unknown

Stake: 8/10

Boston is an experienced, battle-hardened squad. With Paul Pierce back from a minor injury, the Celtics can finally breathe a little easier. Rajon Rondo has come out of the gates this season looking sharp—he’s playing high-level ball and even finding his rhythm from beyond the arc.
The Celtics are formidable at home—they rarely drop games there—and their home defense is particularly aggressive and disciplined. They'll be missing veteran center Jermaine O'Neal today, but they’ll slot in the rookie Unknown, who has looked quite capable over his first few outings this season.

As for the New Jersey Nets, they entered the season already shorthanded, losing their primary center and effectively their second-best player, Brook Lopez, who isn't expected back for another month.

To make matters worse, they're heading into this matchup without their best player and one of the premier floor generals in the league, Deron Williams.

Deron Williams told reporters at this morning's shootaround that he will not play in the Nets' game tonight against the Celtics.

He is their engine—averaging 17.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game.

On top of that, the Nets are also without their third-leading scorer, power forward Kris Humphries (12.4 points and 10.0 rebounds).

Starting power forward Kris Humphries will be alongside Williams on the bench tonight, DJ Augustin also said at shootaround.
Humphries was hoping his sprained left shoulder would heal in time to play tonight, but he will miss his second straight game.

The Nets are struggling—badly. They’re averaging a meager 85 points per game, and with a 1-5 record, they're currently losing by an average of 13.8 points. Aside from their lone win earlier this season, they've dropped five straight. They’re missing three of their top players today, and frankly, the rest of the roster is bottom-tier (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/roster/_...ew-jersey-nets). I don't see them keeping it close against a solid Celtics team, so I'm going with a high stake here after a bit of a dry spell.

I'm also taking:

Boston (-19.5) - New Jersey 1 3.30 3/10

That isn't an unreasonable call. The Nets have been losing by massive margins all season even when Deron Williams and Kris Humphries were actually on the floor.