Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Everything for tomorrow

+2.5/Panama - Spain 1.55
The odds on just Spain felt too low, so I'm hedging it this way. They're definitely going to bury at least three goals here.

Both Teams to Score YES/Netherlands - Germany 1.55
Both sides have found the net in at least their last ten outings, and they rarely stay quiet. Expect at least one apiece.

Gabon - Portugal 2 1.55
They might be missing Ronaldo, but let's be real—they're playing Gabon. They need to fix their goal differential after those last few rough games.

Saudi Arabia - Argentina 2 1.25
Last time these two met was back in '92 and Argentina took it, but in today's game, the winner is pretty obvious. Saudi Arabia keeps dropping games to teams weaker than Argentina, and they just got dismantled 5-0 by Spain.

Brazil - Colombia 1 1.60
Brazil is clearing the path ahead of them. Plus, with the game being played in New York, they’ll definitely put on a show.

Both Teams to Score YES/Sweden - England 1.70
This one feels a bit dicey, but I think it's a solid possibility. After what Sweden pulled off against Germany, and considering England isn't exactly known for staying scoreless, I see it happening. Sweden only failed to score once in their last ten matches—against Brazil—while England has scored in every single game.

Total odds 12.66
Bookie FAVORITE

Kevin Hall51 said:Brazil vs. Colombia 1 1.60
Brazil is leading the pack right now, and since they’re playing in New York, you can bet they’ll put on quite a spectacle

But will Oprah be hosting them? 😬

And who exactly was Brazil crushing lately? In their recent friendlies, they picked up wins against South Africa, China, and Argentina—though both those squads were mostly comprised of players from various domestic leagues
, while on the road, they managed to beat Sweden without Ibra and several starters, along with Japan.
The last two matches Brazil played here in the States back in June actually ended in losses: a 3-4 thriller against Argentina and a 0-2 defeat to Mexico.
As for Colombia, last year in Madrid, they dropped a 0-1 decision to Spain, even though Spain was fielding their strongest lineup; Falcao and Rodriguez (from Porto) weren't even in the mix.
Over the past two years, Colombia has played five friendlies on American soil, coming away with victories over Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, and Ecuador, while drawing against the home team.
Colombia is coming in with a full squad, they're in great form, and they have that specific hunger to pull off an upset against a heavyweight. Honestly, looking at the odds at DraftKings, betting on them to score a goal at @1.55 feels like a much smarter play than backing a straight win for Brazil.

Thomas Stewart87 said:Wait, who exactly was Brazil beating? In their home friendlies, they picked up wins against South Africa, China, and Argentina—and keep in mind, those Argentinian squads were mostly just league players
—while away from home, they beat Sweden without Ibrahimovic and a few other starters, plus Japan.
Then you look at the last two matches Brazil played here in the States back in June: they dropped one to Argentina 3-4 and another to Mexico 0-2.
Last year in Madrid, Colombia lost 0-1 to a full-strength Spain side, even though Falcao and Rodriguez (from Porto) weren't even on the pitch.
Over the last two years, Colombia has played five friendlies in the US, taking wins over Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, and Ecuador, while playing to a draw against the home team.
Colombia is coming in with a full roster, they're in great shape, and they have that chip on their shoulder to take down a giant. Honestly, getting odds @1.55 for them to score a goal at DraftKings feels like a much smarter play than betting on a Brazil win.

I’m with you there. Going up against a squad featuring one of the top three strikers in the world—especially when the payout is that pathetic—just isn't worth the risk.

Given the friendly match lineup on today's schedule, I thought I'd propose a little experiment:
Messi to score @1.45 — he’s looking to chase down Gerd Mueller's record, so he'll be hungry.
Dzeko to score @2.30 — honestly, who else could step up when we have a diamond like him on the field?
Huntelaar to score @2.30 — word on the street is RVP is sitting this one out, which puts the entire offensive burden on his shoulders.
Falcao to score @2.70 — all eyes are on him to break through what is, frankly, a rather lackluster Brazilian defense.
Suarez to score @2.70 or perhaps Lewandowski... I am still weighing my options there.

What does the rest of the community think about these picks?
Thanks,

Thomas Stewart87 said:And who exactly was Brazil crushing? In home friendlies, they beat South Africa, China, and Argentina (both squads were just league players)
, while away, they took down Sweden without Ibrahimovic and several starters, plus Japan.
The last two games Brazil played in the States back in June were losses: 3-4 against Argentina and 0-2 against Mexico.
Last year in Madrid, Colombia lost 0-1 to Spain when Spain fielded their strongest lineup; Falcao and Rodriguez (from Porto) didn't play.
Over the last two years, Colombia has played five friendlies in the US, beating Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, and Ecuador, with one draw against the home team.
Colombia is at full strength, in great form, and hungry for an upset against the giants. Betting on them to score a goal @1.55 at DraftKings offers better value than betting on a Brazil win.

Look, in their last 10 friendlies over the past 6 months, they’ve had 2 losses and 8 wins—including a 6-game winning streak. Out of their last 20 matches, they conceded in 9, but in 6 of those, they only let in a single goal. Now that you've pointed this out, maybe try mixing that bet differently with the rest of the board just to be safe.

Eric Fox7 said:Agreed. Going up against a squad featuring one of the top three strikers in the world for such pathetic odds is a losing move.

Falcao, Martinez, or Gutierrez?
edit: probably Falcao 😁

Kevin Hall51 said:Falcao, Martinez, or Gutierrez?
edit: probably Falcao 😁

It’s Falcao, obviously. I mean, the guy’s got 18 goals in 18 official appearances this season. Just pure efficiency.

The only ones even remotely in the conversation are Stakor—who’s sitting on 26 goals in 27 matches—and Kristina, who's right up there with 19 in 20.

I’ve been looking at Brazil vs. Colombia, specifically eyeing the Over 2.5 goals market. It feels like a safe bet that both sides will find the back of the net, and with squads this talented, I don't see them sitting comfortably at a 1-1 deadlock. There's usually a late surge or a breakthrough with these types of teams, pushing it past that second goal. The odds are sitting at 2.05 on the favorite. What’s your take on this?

MLS Final Round - Sunday 6:00 PM

LAFC vs. St. Louis City SC Over 1.5 goals @ 2.45

LAFC has already locked their spot for next season, so they might just cruise through this one without much intensity—you know how it goes. On the flip side, St. Louis is fighting for their lives here to avoid the relegation playoffs. It reminds me of what happened recently in the USL when teams in similar spots snatched away away wins in the final stretch. Plus, St. Louis actually pulled an upset against a top-tier side recently, so they’re clearly hungry to stay relevant in the league!

Brazilian Serie A - Sunday 8:00 PM

Fluminense vs. Cruzeiro Cruzeiro to score @ 1.50

It's the classic post-championship slump, right? Once you've secured the trophy, everyone tends to chill out—especially with that laid-back South American vibe. But hey, Cruzeiro actually needs these points to secure a spot in the Copa Sudamericana, so they might have some actual motivation left!

Northern Ireland Premiership - Friday 7:45 PM

Ballinamallard Utd vs. Donegal Celtic Home Win @ 1.45

Man, Ballinamallard Utd is having a massive year! They're playing in the top flight for the first time ever, and after 15 rounds, they’re sitting pretty in second place. They’ve become a total sensation in their tiny little town of about 1,300 people! Now they're facing Donegal, who is currently bottom of the table and just lost their manager—talk about bad timing, right?

Total Odds: 5.32

Injury Report:
Portland Timbers vs. Colorado Rapids
Portland: Burgstaller (12/0 d), Pitter (3/0 d), Kuljic (12/2 f), Barragán (8/0 d)
Colorado Rapids: Taschwer (0/0 m)

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders: Koloušek (10/3 m), Tecl (11/10 f), Mešanovič (0/0 f), Marek (0/0 m), Masopust (14/0 m) (doubtful), Jungr (13/1 m)
Portland Timbers: Řepka (10/1 d)

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC
LA Galaxy: Kure (8/0 d), Nørregaard (11/0 m), Skhirtladze (8/1 f), Vatsadze (5/1 f), Eckersley (14/1 d), Devdariani (12/3 m)
LAFC: Sise (0/0 f), Parkhurst (13/2 d), Mtiliga (13/1 d)

Atlanta United vs. New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United: Ecuele Manga (1/0 d), Coutadeur (1/0 m), Mareque (6/0 d), Traoré (9/4 m), Barthelmé (11/1 m), Robert (0/0 f), Touré (0/0 d)
New York Red Bulls: Mendes (6/1 f), Béria (7/0 d), Martin (9/0 m)

Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew: Horvath (1/0 d), Jeż (10/2 m)
Orlando City SC: Ma. Mak (3/0 m), Mi. Mak (2/0 f), Nowosielski (0/0 m), Kosowski (9/0 m), Lacić (7/0 d), Budziłek (0/0 g)

Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC
Inter Miami CF: Ujfalusi (2/0 d)
Nashville SC: Ünal (0/0 f), Seric (10/0 d), Jahic (7/0 d), Uçar (3/0 d), Shelton (8/2 f), Söylemezgiller (7/0 m)

Portland Timbers vs. FC Cincinnati
The whole MLS is looking pretty balanced this season—really anyone can win on any given Sunday.
It’s honestly getting tough to call a winner most weeks because even the big dogs like Inter Miami struggle to pull away, whether they're playing at home or grinding out a road win... it just goes to show how much parity there is right now.
Teams are playing way more aggressively than in years past. Maybe Portland and maybe Columbus Crew (who are dealing with some serious budget issues lately) are the outliers—they play lower scoring games and tend to hit the "under" more often—but most other teams are just ripping goals and constantly hitting the "over."
Basically, 7 teams in the league have been leaning heavily toward the "over" this season, while only 5 are sticking to the "under."

Fans are loving it, though; you almost never see these guys settle for a boring 0-0 stalemate.
Today we’ve got two sides that have been staples in the league for a long time.
Portland isn't quite the powerhouse they were two or three seasons ago since they let some of their top talent walk—so don't expect them to be fighting for the Supporters' Shield this year, unless they catch a lucky break in the playoffs or a cup run.
They usually stick to a 4-3-3 with a sharp front three of Daly-Russell-Skcel, which means they find the net a lot, especially when they're playing at Providence Park.
Out of their last 6 home matches, 4 of them ended with 3 or more goals.

Cincinnati has a really solid squad, specifically that attack—that Irish duo of C. Sheridan and P. Heffernan has been absolutely tearing up defenses lately. They’ve accounted for a third of all Cincinnati's goals.
Add Borja Lopez into the mix along with midfielders like Harkins and Kelly... Cincinnati also runs a three-man attack:
Sheridan-Heffernan-Borja Lopez.
No major injuries to worry about on either side, both teams know each other inside out, and both prefer an attacking style—which means they score plenty, but they also give up plenty.
Goal differential for the home side is 13:15 over 12 matches, while the visitors sit at 20:15 over 13 matches.
Portland has scored in their last 6 outings. Cincinnati has found the back of the net in 12 of their last 14 matches, and they've seen the "over" 10 times and the "under" only 4.
The best play here is Both Teams to Score at 1.70. Both sides are capable of producing—Russell is a massive threat for Portland, and midfielder Mackay Steven is in peak form, having bagged goals in the last two matches for United.
The visitors are efficient too; aside from that one blowout loss in Miami where they went down 0-2, they’ve had a string of 4 "over" games, consistently scoring and conceding.

There's great value on the "over" at 1.90, and personally, I think it's a much safer bet than the "under."
Last season's matchups between these two were high-scoring too, and the season before that? More goals and more overs.
Their first matchup at Cincinnati's stadium this season ended in a 3-1 win for the visitors.
I'm hoping for the same trend today—lots of goals and another over.

08/25/12, Cincinnati - Portland Timbers 3 : 1

02/21/12, Portland Timbers - Cincinnati 4 : 0
12/17/11, Cincinnati - Portland Timbers 1 : 1
07/24/11, Portland Timbers - Cincinnati 1 : 1

01/22/11, Cincinnati - Portland Timbers 1 : 1
11/13/10, Portland Timbers - Cincinnati 1 : 1
10/02/10, Cincinnati - Portland Timbers 1 : 2

01/30/10, Cincinnati - Portland Timbers 4 : 4
Weather in Portland tonight looks partly cloudy with no rain expected, so conditions should be perfect for fast play.
I'm banking on goals...

Both Teams to Score @ 1.70, 7/10 confidence
3+ (Over) @ 1.90, 5/10 confidence

GL

1 Kaiserslautern vs. Cottbus: Over 3 goals @ 1.80
Both these squads are absolutely ripping it lately—they're sitting right at the top of the table, fighting tooth and nail for those promotion spots to get back into the big leagues... they really want that top-tier status back.
The home side is basically built for high scoring games; they play most of their matches with a massive amount of action. They’ve put up 26 goals while letting in 16. That averages out to a wild 3.2 goals per game over these first 13 rounds.
The third-place team is currently sitting in the second division tier. Their frontline is lethal—guys like Idrissou and Bunjaku are tearing it up, racking up 15 goals between them. Honestly, they’ve got the best offense in the league right now.
Cottbus is hovering just one spot below Kaiserslautern, having scored 20 and conceded 12—averaging about 2.3 goals per match.
For them, Sanogo has been a beast this season, already bagging 8 goals.
One thing you can't ignore is that Cottbus has found the back of the net in every single one of their 6 away games. They've got a solid road record too, sitting at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss with an 8:8 goal difference on the road.
As for the home team, they haven't failed to score once all season. With the most efficient attack in the league and a dominant head-to-head history against Cottbus—where they've actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings—they have the edge.
Looking at their last 5 games, the scoreboard has been absolutely lighting up.

I’m expecting another wide-open game today... both offenses are primed and ready, so I'm looking at plenty of goals.

Austin FC vs. LA Galaxy - 2
It’s a local derby in the second division, and honestly, after that aggressive start to the season, the visitors are really starting to find their rhythm. With those final rounds coming up, there isn't a better moment to flip the script and grab some momentum, especially if they can pull off a win against their hometown rivals.
Lorient vs. Lille - 2
The visitors just seem to have more gas in the tank right now, combined with a higher level of individual talent on the pitch, plus the home side is dealing with some notable absences in the lineup.

Roger Phillips said:I can't believe I'm even sitting here typing this out—honestly, my blood pressure is through the roof right now... just watching that absolute disaster of a match between the Portland Timbers and Austin FC. It was painful. Just straight-up painful to watch. You’d think after all the hype surrounding these two sides, we might actually see some decent tactical discipline, but nope. Instead, we got ninety minutes of pure, unadulterated chaos and zero cohesion. The midfield battle? Non-existent. It felt like watching two groups of guys running around aimlessly in a parking lot in downtown Chicago rather than a professional pitch. Every time the Timbers tried to build any kind of momentum, they’d just throw the ball away like it was a piece of trash—which, honestly, at times, it felt like it was. And don't even get me started on the defense. It was like leaving the front door wide open in a bad neighborhood in Detroit... anyone could just walk right in and take what they wanted. I mean, seriously, how do you let a team like Austin find that much space in the final third? It’s embarrassing. At this level, you simply cannot afford those kinds of lapses in concentration. One minute you're thinking you have control, and the next, you're staring at the scoreboard wondering where it all went wrong... It’s just frustrating because you can see the potential in some of these players, but the execution is just... nowhere to be found. Total mess.

Both sides are absolutely cooking right now—both teams are finding the back of the net... I’m putting my money on both teams to score at 1.70 odds. Honestly? A solid 7/10 for me.
Honestly? I’d give that a solid 3 out of 10... maybe even a 5 if you’re feeling generous—but let's be real, it's barely scraping by...

Full Time: 3-3.

Roger Phillips said:I’m looking at this matchup between Kaiserslautern and Cottbus—betting on over 3 goals here at +180 odds... honestly, it feels like a total no-brainer if you actually watch these teams play. Both sides have been playing such chaotic, wide-open soccer lately that you can practically guarantee someone's defense is going to fall asleep at the wheel... it's just begging for a high-scoring blowout. I don't care what the pundits say, the defensive lines are basically revolving doors right now... so yeah, let's ride with the over... it's gotta happen.

Full time, 1-0. Honestly... what a grind. Just absolute chaos out there on the field today.

Club Brugge vs. Racing Genk – Over 2.5 goals feels like a solid bet here, maybe a 7/10 confidence level...
(though if things get crazy, Over 3.5 could be an option) 4/10.
Brugge has been riding a massive wave lately—six straight games going over the total. They’re finally finding their rhythm, playing better, and actually putting the ball in the net. In those last six matches, they've been pumping out a crazy ratio of 10:13 goals. Honestly, they’re desperate to avoid the relegation scrap, and if they keep this momentum up, staying in the top flight shouldn't be an issue at all...
Genk, on the other hand, is one of those powerhouse teams right at the top of the table. They’ve been scoring on the road, sure, but they've also been dropping points in draws and letting too many goals slip past them.
The home side's defense is basically a sieve—they're giving up upwards of two goals per game on average. And let's not forget Genk's defense; they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their away trips lately.
Brugge might take some heart from that 2:2 draw against Gent at home last week, but Genk is rolling into town with massive confidence. They completely flipped the script recently with a blowout 5:1 win over Mons. Before that, they even snagged a 1:1 draw in Lisbon during Europa League play. There might be some value on the visitors, but you can't sleep on the home team—if you look at the standings and their recent form, they aren't actually that bad... it was just a nightmare start to the season, and I expect them to secure their spot in the league comfortably by the end...
I'm looking at an open, high-scoring affair. The home guys have the firepower, especially since they swapped out their manager recently, which seems to have worked. Still, the visitors are the favorites—stronger, deeper, and coming in hungry for points.
The trio of Rudy, Gudjohnsen, and Bakenga should definitely find the back of the net against Genk. Meanwhile, Genk’s attack, led by guys like Vossen, De Ceulaer, Plet, Bard, and Buffel, practically guarantees goals.
Their last three matchups:
07/29/12, RC Genk vs. Club Brugge 3 : 3 (this season)

12/26/11, RC Genk vs. Club Brugge 4 : 2
08/20/11, Club Brugge vs. RC Genk 3 : 2

Cardiff vs. Middlesbrough - Over 1.65 goals
Look, Cardiff is an absolute beast at home—they’re incredibly convincing and basically 100% reliable, easily the toughest team to visit in the Championship.
Out of their last 8 home games, 7 of them smashed the over... so we're looking at a 7-game streak of high-scoring matches at their place.
They kicked things off this season with a 1-0 win against Huddersfield at home. They tend to struggle more on the road, but even away from home they play wide open—only two of their away matches stayed under, back on August 21st against Brighton (0-0) and Millwall (0-2).
Last week they dropped a wild one, losing 5-4 away at Charlton. Seriously, over 80% of their total matches this season have gone over the goal line.
Their opponent is Middlesbrough, which is easily one of the elite squads in the league. They’re actually the second-best traveling side right now, sitting just one point behind the leaders, Crystal Palace.
The firepower here is insane—Boro's got guys like S. McDonald, M. Emnes, Jutkiewicz, and Ishm. Miller... while Cardiff is packing heat with Bellamy, Helguson, J. Mason, and T. Smith.
I honestly don't get how a matchup between teams like this doesn't end with a mountain of goals. You've got three top-tier, high-octane teams with lethal strikers... trying to pick a winner is just a fool's errand, nobody can call this one reliably.
Because Cardiff is such a powerhouse on their own turf, I'll give them a tiny edge, but man, Boro is a nightmare to play against when they're on the road.

----------------------------------
Eskisehirspor vs. Fenerbahçe - Both Teams to Score (BTTS) @ 1.65
Eskisehir has some legit weapons upfront—Necati Ates and Dioumansy Kamara are the main men... those two alone have netted 11 goals, which is basically half of the team's total 21 goals this season.
The home side has been stellar this year, sitting in 4th place and trailing Fenerbahçe by only 2 points.
At home, they've been dominant with a 4-0-1 record and a massive 14:5 goal differential.
Fenerbahçe, on the other hand, hasn't looked nearly as convincing on the road. They haven't been happy with their away form so far—sitting at 1-3-1 with a 4:5 goal difference.
But Fenerbahçe still boasts serious talent with Sow, Kuyt, Bienvenu, and Stoch... they're riding a 3-game winning streak and I'm betting they're coming to Eskisehir to grab some points.
Looking back at previous meetings where Eskisehir was the home team, they almost always went over the goal limit—the home side usually scores, and Fenerbahçe usually finds the net too. Plus, in Fenerbahçe's last four away trips, they only managed to walk away with a win once.
It won't be an easy stroll for them today either, but I'm expecting goals. The result could swing either way since these teams are wildly unpredictable and defenses tend to fall apart constantly...
Simply put, the attacks on both sides look and play much better than the defenses. And considering that massive slip-up by Galatasaray last night, Fenerbahçe has a golden opportunity to close the gap at the top of the table.

02.25.12, Eskisehirspor - Fenerbahçe 2 : 1
04.09.11, Eskisehirspor - Fenerbahce 1 : 3
12.05.09, Eskisehirspor - Fenerbahce 2 : 1
11.01.08, Eskisehirspor - Fenerbahce 2 : 2

Roger Phillips said:Club Brugge vs. Genk, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 feels like a solid bet, maybe a 7/10...
(could even hit Over 3.5) at 4/10 odds.
Brugge has been hitting the over in six straight games. They're finally finding their rhythm, playing better, and actually scoring; they've put up 13 goals against 10 conceded over their last six matches. They’re desperate to avoid relegation, and if they keep this pace up, staying in the top flight shouldn't be an issue...
Genk is a powerhouse, and while they always score on the road, they tend to draw a lot and give up goals too.
The home defense is pretty leaky, giving up more than two goals per game on average. Plus, Genk’s defense has conceded at least once in every away match lately.
Brugge might take some confidence from that 2:2 draw at home against Gent last week, especially since Genk is heading into town feeling untouchable after crushing Mons 5:1. Before that, they grabbed a 1:1 draw in Lisbon during the Europa League. There might be some value on the visitors, but you can't sleep on the home side—looking at the standings and recent results, they aren't nearly as bad as people think... they just had a rough start to the season, and I expect them to secure their spot in the league eventually.
I'm expecting an open game with plenty of goals; the home team has potential, especially after the coaching change, but the visitors are the favorites—stronger, higher quality, and coming in hungry for points.
The lineup of Iachtchouk, Gudjohnsen, and Bakenga should find the back of the net against Genk, and Genk’s attack with Vossen, De Ceulaer, Plet, Bard, and Buffel practically guarantees goals...
their last three matchups:
07/29/12, Genk vs. Brugge 3 : 3 (this season)

12/26/11, Genk vs. Brugge 4 : 2
08/20/11, Brugge vs. Genk 3 : 2

so why not grab the over 3.5 at 1.95 if you're already betting all this stuff...

Jesse Brown12 said:and what about getting an extra $2k after you finish playing all this stuff?

honestly, it's a killer choice👍 total bang for your buck if you're looking at mid-tier roles😉>

Spurs at 1.35
They’ve scored in 11 of their last 12 games, so I don't really see how they miss today. Plus, Arsenal has conceded in 14 straight matches—sometimes giving up more than two. I’m pretty sure Bale, Adebayor, and Defoe will find the net at some point. I'm expecting Spurs to avoid a loss too, and honestly, the odds look great. 2

Record: 4W/0L (21.05 units)

Analysis No.: 4
Matchup: Hamburg SV vs. FSV Mainz 05
Pick: 1
Odds: 2.40
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Time: Nov 17, 2012 / 3:30 PM
Stake: 3/10

As I mentioned last week, I think Hamburg SV is playing some increasingly impressive football lately. They have a really solid roster, and it seems they are starting to find their footing in those upper-tier positions that lead to European competition next season. I suppose they truly have the talent for it. If there is one thing they seem to be lacking right now, it might just be a true clinical finisher—someone who can actually convert all those good build-ups into goals. They haven't managed a win at home over the last two matchdays, but I don't think that should stop them from taking care of Mainz today. Mainz has been struggling on the road; they’ve only picked up 5 points away from home out of the 17 they've earned overall this season. So, maybe a home win is more likely than people think.

Injuries/Absences:

Hamburg SV: Ivo Ilicic (MID 5/1), Petr Jiracek (MID 5/0), Slobodan Rajkovic (DEF 0/0), Jacopo Sala (MID 5/0)

Mainz: Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (ATT 5/0), Niko Bungert (DEF 7/0)

Napoli vs. Milan. Milan’s defense is a total mess right now—they’re actually playing a midfielder at fullback because they have nobody else left. Their offense, though? Surprisingly sharp lately. I caught the Napoli game against Genoa last time. They were down 2-1, just grinding away, then managed to flip it to 3-2 in the dying minutes. That final goal came on a breakaway while Genoa was scrambling to salvage a draw.

Given how things look...

There are two ways to play this. Both teams to score @ 1.75 or if you're feeling gutsy, Cavani to score @ 2.00 (guy has put up 5 goals in his last two outings)
.

Nuremberg vs. Bayern. Betting on Bayern feels like a waste of time given the odds, but look at the scoring trends. Bayern hasn't conceded a single goal on the road this season. Meanwhile, Nuremberg has been toothless at home, only finding the net three times. Honestly, I don't see them piercing through that Bayern defense.

So, Nuremberg to fail to score @ 1.90 is a value play I'm taking.