Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

brick9 said:Hey... does anyone actually know why that game between the LA Galaxy and Zenit got called off??

The home crowd started throwing firecrackers and stuff everywhere... total chaos.

Brasileirao

Coritiba-Vasco 1 1,70
The visitors are showing up seriously gutted—missing 10 players—so while they’ve got some starters, I really think Coritiba takes this one.
They're missing: Juninho P. Felipe, Douglas, Dede, Carlos Alberto, Alecsandro, Rodolfo, Eduardo Costa, Eder Luis.
Basically every single key player for the away side is out:

Their defense is starting with a duo that’s only played about five games all season, Thiago Feltri and Fabricio. Fullbacks are Renato Silva and Jonas, both with just 12 appearances this year.
So yeah, the visiting defense is basically just a bunch of benchwarmers.
Midfield's looking thin too—John Cley has two appearances, Marlone’s also only got two.
The only experienced guys, the actual staples who have over 20 appearances, are Nilton and Wendel.
And they don't even have a real striker available.
Coritiba looks way better, though they aren't perfect either—most importantly, their attackers, Deivid and Rafinha, are actually playing.
In the midfield you've got Gil and Lincoln, plus Vinicius and W Farias coming off the bench.
Home defense isn't exactly complete either—their fullbacks are guys who barely play, maybe 10 appearances max.
Defense is Escudero and Luccas.
Vasco has lost three straight on the road.
The visitors are bringing a much weaker squad; honestly, there are only like three or four guys who have seen any action this season.
Coritiba is looking solid compared to them, running a 4-4-2 against the visitors' 4-5-1.
1,70 is decent value in my book—looks like a lock, maybe 60% chance for the home side. 5/10.
First matchup this season:
08/17/12, Vasco da Gama - Coritiba 2 : 2
Last season at home:
06/05/11, Coritiba - Vasco da Gama 5 : 1
GL

edit:
Hey admins, can you move this to the Football thread? I don't know how I messed up, but I swear I thought I was posting in the Football section... damn...

Daniel Watson9 said:Record: 4W/0L (21.05 units)

Analysis No.: 4
Match: Hamburg vs. Mainz 05
Pick: 1
Odds: 2.40
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Time: Nov 17, 2012 / 3:30 PM
Stake: 3/10

As I mentioned last week, Hamburg is playing increasingly impressive football lately. They possess a quite solid roster, and I suppose they are starting to position themselves near those European qualification spots for next season. They really do have the talent for it. Perhaps the only thing they are currently lacking is a true clinical finisher—someone who can just step in and convert all those good build-ups into goals. They haven't won their last two home games, but I don't think that should necessarily prevent them from taking care of Mainz today, who play like a typical road team. Mainz has only managed to pick up 5 points on the road out of the 17 they've earned overall this season, so it might be an uphill battle for them.

Missing:

Hamburg: Ivo Ilicic (MID 5/1), Petr Jiracek (MID 5/0), Slobodan Rajkovic (DEF 0/0), Jacopo Sala (MID 5/0)

Mainz: Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (ATT 5/0), Niko Bungert (DEF 7/0)

Final Score - 1:0
👍

Record: 5W/0L (+25.25 units)

Daniel Watson9, maybe stick to the SPAT thread from now on
Welcome aboard 👍

Roger Phillips said:Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough over 1.65 goals

FT 1:0

Roger Phillips said:Both teams to score in Eskisehirspor vs Fenerbahçe at 1.65

FT 1:1

Roger Phillips said:Cercle Brugge vs Racing Genk 3+ goals at 1.65—pretty solid 7/10 bet,
(maybe even 4+ goals if things get crazy) 4/10

FT 3:1

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC, Sunday, 7:00 AM
1@1,60
4/10



The Galaxy are absolute beasts at home. Only one loss in their last 10 home matches—they've won the rest. 🙏
The visitors just joined the MLS this season, and they've only managed two wins in six rounds. They grabbed a win against the Reds at home, but lost to the Rovers on the road. 🙏

The home side is missing their captain, but Smeltz is back from international duty. On the flip side, the visitors have their big star, Shinji Ono. Honestly? I think the Galaxy are the better squad. At home, they can hold their own against anyone. I’m feeling a comfortable three points for them tomorrow.

Plus, the fans are planning quite the welcome at the stadium now that they've expanded the capacity.

Eric Fox7 said:Hey, maybe in the future you could stick to the main discussion thread on the official site.
Welcome 👍

Thanks!
I suppose I'll head over there then. I really hope I can be just as productive in that section. 🙂

Injuries & Absences:
Louisville City FC v Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC: De Pauw
Indy Eleven: Losada, Stijnen, Veselinovic (doubtful), Galešić

Atlanta United v Orlando City SC
Atlanta United: Cañete, Fabrício
Orlando City SC: Ronaldo Alves, Marlon, Elicarlos, Dadá

Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders: Fritz
Portland Timbers: Bruno Soares, Malezas, Fink, Schahin

Philadelphia Union v New York City FC
Philadelphia Union: van der Struijk
New York City FC: van den Meiracker, Sno, Palsson, Conboy, Breuer, Cmovs, Rieks, Loen

Austin FC v FC Dallas
Austin FC: Keko (doubtful), Augustyn, Sciacca
FC Dallas: Squizzi, Papp, Cruzado, Frey, M. Rigoni, Cesar, L. Rigoni

Minnesota United v Colorado Rapids
Minnesota United: -
Colorado Rapids: Hirschfeld, Koné, Næss, Ogude, Suleiman (doubtful), Fellah

San Jose Earthquakes v LA Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes: -
LA Galaxy: Sergio Alejandro, Sellés, Pepe Mora, Arbilla, Braulio, Escassi

Roger Phillips said:Lakers vs. Warriors 1 1.70

Final score 1:2

(didn't catch the game live, but honestly? looks like a classic case of someone completely sleeping on the underdog... or maybe just some shady business going down out there)
😢

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC 1 2,20
The Galaxy are absolutely feeling it right now—they’re looking to play with some actual pride and pull off a win in front of their home crowd, plus they’re desperate to climb as high as possible in the standings before the season wraps up...
The Galaxy haven't lost in 6 games. They're riding two wins in a row, and honestly, their roster is way healthier than the visitors right now.
See, LAFC basically fell out of the big leagues last season—they've been playing bottom-tier ball lately. Maybe they want to finish the season with some dignity, but man, they are gutted today... too many suspensions, players are exhausted from the pressure and the sheer pace of the schedule... it's a mess.
Daniel Carvalho, Marcos Assuncao, Thiago Heleno, Joao Denoni, Patrick Vieira, Wesley, Fernandinho, Valdivia, Betinho, Leandro, Leandro Amaro and Luan.
The midfield is basically just benchwarmers at this point—Thiago Real, Correa, Mazinho, and then your "regular" guy Marcio Araujo who’s only got 26 appearances under his belt.
The vibes and motivation levels couldn't be more different between these two squads. The Galaxy have a much stronger lineup, though they're missing Liedson upfront—Hernane is stepping in, but he hasn't seen much action this season, just 11 starts and 3 goals... nothing special.
I like the value here, so I'm putting my money on a home win for the Galaxy.

----------------

Houston Dynamo vs. FC Dallas Both Teams to Score 1,80
Both sides are rolling out their heavy hitters today, so you can bet both offenses are going to be fully unleashed.
Houston hasn't been playing their best lately because they were running a depleted squad—which resulted in them dropping a game without even finding the back of the net.
They’re almost at full strength today, only missing young striker Dagoberto and left back Kleber (honestly, pretty minor losses if you ask me).
As for the visitors, they don't have any injuries to worry about—they’ve got a lethal attack led by P Guerrero and J Martinez. Their matchups usually turn into goal fests, and since they're coming in with everyone available, I don't see what could possibly stop them from playing a great game.
The visitors have a better winning record overall, sitting at 23 wins compared to Houston's 15... with 19 total draws between them.
Houston has a slight edge historically, but the visitors are definitely the ones in better form with a solid run going—Dallas is currently on a 4-game unbeaten streak. Neither team is really going to catch the top 4, but they're both fighting for those spots in the continental playoffs.

10/23/11, Houston Dynamo - FC Dallas 1 : 1
09/26/10, Houston Dynamo - FC Dallas 3 : 2
08/20/09, Houston Dynamo - FC Dallas 1 : 2
07/02/09, Houston Dynamo - FC Dallas 2 : 2

Jacob Torres21 said:Absences:

LA Galaxy vs. FC Cincinnati
LA Galaxy: Fritz
FC Cincinnati: Bruno Soares, Malezas, Fink, Schahin

Escassi

Regarding the Cincinnati lineup, I suppose the absence of Oliver Fink might be the most significant factor here. He’s a midfielder who has appeared in nine matches so far, scoring one goal, and he really seems to be the engine that drives almost everything the team does on the pitch.

Roger Phillips said:Flamengo-Palmeiras 1 2.20

Internacional-Corinthians both teams to score at 1.80

Flamengo ended 1:1 while Internacional couldn't even find the net—FT 0:2🙂

---------------------------------------------------------------

Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow Over 2.5 goals at 1.90
Both these squads are playing absolute garbage right now.
They both desperately need a win just to snap these pathetic losing streaks...
The home side hasn't seen a win in 7 games—and let me tell you, their defense is basically a revolving door, one of the worst in the league—they've got decent strikers but even they've been totally toothless lately.
They haven't managed to score a single goal in their last 4 matches.
Look, guys like Caballero, Kornilenko, Zeballos, and Delkin aren't bad players—they can definitely find the back of the net against anyone, especially when they're playing on home turf.
They’ve put up 15 goals but surrendered 29, averaging 2.9 per game. It's a young squad too—only 4 players are over 30, including two keepers, and the veteran midfielders Grigoryan and Koroman are the oldest at 34.
Lokomotiv is sitting on a 6-game winless streak, though honestly, they aren't nearly as disastrous on the road as they are at home.
For example, looking at their last three away trips, they were only really disappointing at Rostov with a 0:0 (should've won that), and before that against Zenit, they definitely earned more than just a single point—they played incredibly well despite being down to 10 men.
Their last away game was against CSKA and they lost 2:1 because of a goal right at the death...
Against Anzhi, they had a ton of chances and walked away with a 1:1 draw. If they pull off another performance like that today, we should be looking at a high-scoring affair.
Lokomotiv seriously needs to start finishing their plays, especially since they have talent in the attack like:
N'Doye, Pavlyuchenko, Caicedo, Obinna...
Both teams are fighting for survival here—home side has a shaky defense but a better attack, while the visitors have a heavy-hitting lineup that creates plenty of opportunities every match.
I'm expecting goals in this one.
An away win is a bit of a stretch, but the "Over" on goals offers way better value, and in my book, the chances of seeing goals are just as high, if not higher...

Roger Phillips said:Samara Lokomotiv vs. Moscow 3+ at 1.90

FT 0:1
--------------

Moscow Spartak vs. Barcelona 3+ at 1.50 - 4+ at 2.15
Let me just get this out of the way right at the jump—it’s honestly kind of a freak occurrence seeing Moscow Spartak stuck in an "under" streak for three straight games... they lost 2-0 in Lisbon, grabbed a 2-0 win, and then just limped to a 1-1 draw in their last league match.
Playing at home, Spartak definitely has a real shot at finding the back of the net against Barcelona—doesn't matter which one, really—they managed to score twice away once, even putting two past Celtic in Glasgow.
The offense is legit, they've got some high-end strikers and they play an aggressive, attacking style... plus, this game is huge for them, so you can bet the motivation and the hunger are through the roof...
But man, that defense? It's a disaster. They make these massive, ridiculous mistakes—just total mental lapses that a powerhouse visitor like Barcelona is going to feast on.
The home side has to push forward, not blindly running into walls, but they can't just sit back and play defensive ball either... if they lose this, they're completely dead in the water for the Round of 16.
Then you look at Barcelona—their defense gives up way too many goals, they're scoring left and right, and Messi is absolutely starving for goals... Barca wants to wash away the bitter taste of that loss in Glasgow, and they aren't about to risk dropping more points... honestly, they could easily put three past that Spartak defense.
So, anything less than a few goals in this match would be a total shocker...
Also, betting on Barcelona to score 3 or more is a seriously strong play.

Wed 19 Sep Barcelona 3 - 2 Moscow Spartak
Wed 16 Mar Barcelona 5 - 1 Moscow Spartak 1993/1994
Wed 02 Mar Moscow Spartak 2 - 2 Barcelona 1993/1994

3+ 1.50 8/10
4+ 2.15 5/10

Galatasaray @2,00

It honestly feels like a missed opportunity not to back Galatasaray tonight—especially given the roster Ferguson brought over to Istanbul... Even if these guys sometimes struggle when the pressure mounts, I think they have enough quality to scrape a win against this United side over 90 minutes. Having Elmander back in the lineup should be huge too—he looked sharp in the second half against Karabukspor—so expect their attack to be much more dangerous tonight...

United Lineup: Sam Johnstone, Anders Lindegaard; Rafael, Alexander Buttner, Phil Jones, Tom Thorpe, Marnick Vermijl, Scott Wootton, Michael Carrick, Davide Petrucci, Larnell Cole, Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher, Anderson, Nick Powell, Ashley Young, Ryan Tunnicliffe, Javier Hernandez, Joshua King, Danny Welbeck, Federico Macheda.

Hey there, I'm new to the group. I've been lurking here for quite a while now, so I figured it was finally time to jump in and get involved. Here's what I'm looking at today:

FC Copenhagen vs. Shakhtar Donetsk 2
Honestly, I think Shakhtar is just a much higher caliber squad than the home team here. Copenhagen basically has zero chance of advancing unless the visitors pull off a win, which they absolutely have to do if they want to move on. They had a rough break against Chelsea last time, but they’re significantly better than the locals. Even though they're missing key defensive guys like Cigrinski and Hubshman, I reckon Willian and the rest can outscore whatever Shakhtar puts up. That said, an over 2.5 goals play also looks solid to me... should go through.

BATE Borisov vs. Lille 1X
Lille is pretty much out of the running already, whereas BATE is still very much in the hunt. Playing at home, BATE is always a tough nut to crack. Plus, Lille is showing up without some heavy hitters—De Mel, Cheadou, Mendes, Beria, and Balmont are all out. With BATE starting their best lineup, I don't see them losing this one.

Spartak Moscow vs. Barcelona Over 2.5
Spartak plays a really aggressive style; they score plenty but give up a lot too. They're facing a Barcelona side that’ll be fielding the strongest lineup Tito Villanova can muster. I think Spartak can definitely find the back of the net at least once. Barca's defense isn't exactly ironclad right now. Even with Puyol and Pique back, they don't look fully synchronized yet—we saw that against Zaragoza, and we saw similar issues with Mascherano and Bartra in previous matches. So, Barca likely concedes one but scores a few themselves. The over should hit here.

Good luck to everyone!

I don't even know where to start with this—it’s just one thing after another lately. Every time I think we've reached a breaking point with the sheer absurdity of how things are being handled, someone pulls a stunt that makes me want to put my head through a wall. It’s constant. It's relentless. We’re just spinning our wheels at high speed while everyone else watches from the sidelines, completely oblivious to the chaos. Honestly, if you aren't moving fast, you're getting left behind in the dust, and frankly, I'm tired of waiting for anyone to catch up. kaže:
Could you please elaborate on that just a little bit? Who exactly are we talking about, who is involved, how does this even work, and—more importantly—why should anyone care? Let’s be honest here—hardly anyone in this country follows the MLS, let alone some obscure minor league out in the middle of nowhere. 😕

Let me tell you exactly what I see here—and frankly, it’s a disaster. This club? It’s nothing more than a glorified social club at this point. The roster is absolutely pathetic. You look at the lineup and what do you get? A bunch of guys from the Midwest, a few locals, and maybe one talented minority player who actually shows some actual skill on the field—but even he can’t carry this weight. It’s all useless when you don't have a core of homegrown talent to back him up. Instead, you've got this disjointed mess of unproven youngsters mixed with a couple of aging veterans who are clearly past their prime. And don't even get me started on the stadium. Good grief, it’s embarrassing. You’ll see maybe 300 or 500 people showing up if they're lucky—and that’s only when they’re playing a big-market powerhouse like the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Yankees. Most of the time? Empty seats. It’s a joke. To top it all off, the whole organization was practically hemorrhaging cash at the start of this season due to massive financial instability. It’s a complete shambles.

Does anyone actually have the inside scoop on what's happening over at Alcoa? I’m completely in the dark here—it feels like they’re operating in total secrecy, and frankly, it’s infuriating. I've been trying to get a handle on their current situation, but there is absolutely zero transparency. Does anyone here actually know what the deal is with them? If you have any actual intel or even a vague idea of what’s going on behind those closed doors, please speak up. I need some real answers, not just more silence.

Honestly, whenever there’s a match involving the top tier of the MLS, I make it a point to check exactly who Mura is facing—and let me tell you, I am always betting against them. If they happen to be playing a squad that actually has some teeth, the odds are usually fantastic; I never see a line lower than 1.50 when I'm looking to back their opponent. It's just common sense at this point.

I spotted a matchup where the odds just look completely skewed—honestly, it feels totally unrealistic:
Premier League action this weekend;

Seattle Sounders-Portland Timbers 2 @ 2.80 | DNB 2 @ 2.00
The home side is absolutely gutted for this one—just because of those suspensions from last week's match against Vitesse, they’re going to be missing:
Amieux in the backline, plus Palsson and Koolwijko in the midfield.
On top of the guys serving suspensions, they’ve also got a laundry list of injuries:
Conboy, P Cmovs, and m Breuer in defense, then you lose key midfielders Soren Rieks and E Sno, plus two less critical players, Loen and Meiracker.
Seattle Sounders have only managed one win at home so far, which was a 3:2 thriller against Heracles.
With a squad this depleted, they don't stand a chance against a gritty, powerhouse team like Utrecht. They're missing half their core—four midfielders, four defenders... honestly, there is massive value on Utrecht here, and I'm jumping on it before the odds inevitably drop over the next few days.
Utrecht has only dropped one away game, though they did suffer a shocking 4:0 blowout at Waalwijk last week😕.
In my book, they have a huge advantage here. The value on them is too good to pass up, so I'm following them—I'm feeling confident we can grab a win in Nijegen.
Granted, their matchups tend to be grinders; they've had three draws in their last six games, and Utrecht's two wins both came at home.
They've definitely had a much stronger start to the season than the Seattle Sounders, who are looking weak, shorthanded, and out of form... so I really believe the visitors can walk away with all three points in Nijegen.

04.03.12, FC Utrecht - Seattle Sounders 0 : 0
30.10.11, Seattle Sounders - FC Utrecht 3 : 1
27.02.11, Seattle Sounders - FC Utrecht 1 : 1
21.11.10, FC Utrecht - Seattle Sounders 4 : 0
07.03.10, FC Utrecht - Seattle Sounders 1 : 0
30.09.09, Seattle Sounders - FC Utrecht 1 : 1

2 @ 2.80 6/10 - DNB 2 @ 2.00 8/10.

GL

20:45 odds 1.65 SS (1.60 HL) JUVENTUS - Chelsea

In this group, anything can happen, really. Juve knows they absolutely have to take all three points if they want any shot at moving on, while Chelsea is probably just going to play it safe and try not to lose... though, let's be honest, pretty much everyone is calling it a Juve win. Personally, I feel way more comfortable betting on both teams to find the back of the net—it might even turn into a total goalfest...

20:45 2 1.35 (h1:0 1.80) NORDSJAELLAND - Shakhtar

Shakhtar has been playing out of their minds lately, and they seriously need an away win today to keep their knockout hopes alive. They're missing Chygrynskiy and Hubschman, which hurts, but I still think they pull it off. You can tell they've prepared top-tier for this one; the stakes couldn't be any higher...

I’m looking at 1.90 for an SS win against Juve in their matchup with Chelsea. Personally, I think the bookmakers have slightly undervalued Chelsea, even though they've been struggling lately—they haven't managed a domestic league win in four matches. That said, Juve hasn't exactly been dominant at home either, especially after that performance against Lazia in their own league. Neither side can really afford a loss tonight, though I suspect Chelsea wouldn't mind walking away with a draw. They'll be missing John Terry and Frank Lampard, and if David Luiz isn't fit to play, we might see Branislav Ivanović step in while César Azpilicueta moves into the center of defense.

X @ 4.10 3/10
X2 @ 2.10 6/10

Juventus-Chelsea x 3/10

This is going to be a tough one for both sides. Whoever loses today is out of the Champions League, so I’m expecting a pretty cautious match from both teams. Neither side has been playing particularly well lately, so the under 3 goals at 1.8 doesn't look like a bad shout either.

Roger Phillips said:Man, I’m telling you... Spartak Moscow-Barcelona is a total toss-up, but I’m leaning towards 3+ goals. Looking at the odds at 1.50, there's some serious value there if you actually know what you're looking at... It feels like one of those games where everything just explodes once the first goal hits. Just a hunch, but I'm feeling it...

-

Roger Phillips said:Man, if you aren't looking at Spartak Moscow-Barcelona to go over 2.5 goals, what are you even doing? Seriously... I'm seeing the lines sitting around 2.15 for the Over, and honestly, that feels like a gift from the universe. These two sides play such wide-open, chaotic football—it’s basically asking for a shootout. You look at the defensive gaps and then look at the attacking talent coming onto the pitch, and it just screams goals. It's one of those matches where nobody wants to sit back and play boring, tactical soccer—they just want to run through you. I've been staring at these odds for a bit now, and my gut is telling me we're getting a high-scoring affair here. Just a total blowout waiting to happen... definitely worth a look if you're feeling bold.

Final score: 0-3. Absolute disaster... honestly, I don't even know where to start with this mess. Just total garbage from start to finish.