Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

There are plenty of sites tracking odds movement—it's easy enough to find them, and you can also find them listed under the Links thread.

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/wor...gium-bLU1UIn5/

hiddenfox64 said:I'm honestly not quite sure where to turn for this information. Does Cristiano Ronaldo actually play in the upcoming matchup against Israel, or is he out? I’m asking because, if my memory serves me correctly, he’s already sitting on three yellow cards.

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/prelimi...hp_module_news

The Americans, who made it all the way to the FIFA World Cup semifinals last year but have found it difficult to truly dominate a fairly straightforward qualifying group, will be playing without several key players for the match with Israel in Lisbon.

Defenders like Virgil van Dijk and Shaun Adams are sidelined due to injury, and we won't see midfielder Tim Hardaway on the pitch either, while up front both key players are also absent.

There isn't anything mentioned regarding the CIA.

Ukraine vs Poland (11.10. 20:00) yes @1,85

This group is easily the most intriguing one; everyone is hovering around a similar level, which means anyone could realistically pull it off. In my view, Ukraine holds the edge, but you really shouldn't sleep on the Poles—especially with Lewandowski and Blaž in the mix. Those two have this knack for conjuring something out of thin air, so I’m leaning toward them finding the back of the net at least once. Expect plenty of action, too—goals, fouls, set pieces—especially given how the last match unfolded. Given they racked up six yellows in their previous outing, things might get a bit heated.

Ukraine (zžk4,5)-Poland (11.10. 20:00) over @1,85

Robin van Persie (idg)-Netherlands-Canada (11.10. 20:30) scores @1,80

Robin van Persie is currently tied with Edin Džeko for the top scorer spot in the qualifiers. Historically, matches involving the Canadians tend to be quite high-scoring affairs, so I'm fairly confident we'll see at least one goal from Robin...

Iceland - Cyprus 2 7.6
I'm putting a little something on this just for fun, mostly because Cyprus took the win in the first matchup, and honestly, Iceland isn't exactly playing at a level where it would be a total shock if they dropped this one too, so I’m grabbing this odds value on Cyprus; I don't really have the full scoop on how both squads are looking right now, but I figured I'd throw a bit down on an upset.

South Korea vs Brazil (10.12. 13:00) f+2@2,10
To be honest, I’ve only just had a chance to look over the odds... South Korea seems to be struggling lately, especially after that loss to us (bless them), so I wouldn't be surprised if Brazil completely runs circles around them by four or five goals. Brazil has been looking sharp in their friendlies; they aren't just playing around, they're actually putting in the work. When you look at the individual talent, Brazil is easily seventeen classes above. It really shouldn't be much of a contest... 😬

The most likely lineup for Brazil...
Jefferson; Daniel Alves, David Luiz, Dante, Marcelo; Luiz Gustavo, Paulinho, Ramires, Oscar; Neymar, Jo.

Rhyl vs TNS 3+ 1.55

Looking at the last seven matchups involving these two sides, they’ve consistently cleared the over/under line with at least three goals per game... total chaos out there.
And if you look at their last five outings, TNS has absolutely been running the show—winning all five and putting at least two goals on the board every single time.


Dumbarton vs Dundee FC 3+ 1.64

Dumbarton is playing some seriously high-octane football this season—they just don't know how to stop scoring.
Their average is sitting at a wild 3.9 goals per match... I mean, they've hit the 3+ mark in 7 of their last 8 games. That's insane.
The only outlier was their first meeting of the season against Falkirk, which ended in a 1:1 draw—the only "under" they've seen in a minute.

Now they're facing Dundee FC, a team they haven't crossed paths with yet in league play.
They did meet twice in cup matches though, and let me tell you, the more established side, Dundee, just dismantled them—winning convincingly with scores of 4:0 and 0:4.
That said, neither team is exactly looking dominant right now... Dumbarton has only managed one home win, and Dundee has been just as shaky, picking up only one win on the road.
At the end of the day, my money is on the goals here... hoping we see a few fly in.

Australian A-League | (06:00) Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar 2 @ 2.10

Bottom line: the home side is going to be shorthanded. They’re missing four starters due to international duty (Moss, Durante, Bertos, and Brockie), plus there's a good chance three more won't play because of injuries (Fenton, Italiano, and Ifill).
Keep in mind, we're only looking at the opening round here. Wellington finished dead last last season, while Brisbane managed a 5th place finish.

Costa Rica vs Mexico 2 @ 1.85

Costa Rica is already through, but Mexico? Man, they desperately need a point. Honestly, Mexico has been struggling for ages—but after that crazy, insane goal they scored yesterday, everything just clicked! Their morale is sky-high, the confidence is back, and you can tell they finally shook off that tension and fatigue. Plus, let’s be real, they’re just better than Costa Rica anyway... honestly, riding that massive wave of momentum, this should be an easy win!

I think we should grab the draw for Chile vs Ecuador; I was hoping they wouldn't slash those odds too much.
It seems pretty straightforward—both sides are likely heading to the FIFA World Cup regardless, so they won't have to worry about some potential Uruguayan upset against the Argentines, though even that's a bit of a toss-up.
As a long-time bettor, I’ve watched plenty of Serie A and Serie B matches in recent rounds where the odds for a draw were sitting around 1.6, and those usually hit. Compared to that, this current odd feels massive. I even remember a draw in an Osijek vs Cibalia match at 1.3 that went through without any trouble. It just doesn't make sense for this one to fail. So, my take is:

Chile vs Ecuador X @1.9 I've put it on SS and PSK; I haven't made up my mind on the others yet.

Look, even though I’m on board with the bet, it's just not true that those 1.5 draws always hit when you're looking at the Italian side—honestly, I’d go as far as saying they fail more often than they actually land. Once I have a moment to breathe, I’ll try to dig up a few specific examples to prove it.

JEF Utd vs Tokyo FC over 2.5 goals @ 1.75; over 2.5 goals @ 2.00

This Japanese Cup matchup features two sides that seem to have a mutual agreement to keep the scoreboard busy—it’s basically a goal-fest whenever they meet. The home side has seen at least three goals in 7 of their last 9 games, while the visitors have hit that same mark in 5 of their last 7. Even their head-to-head history is loaded with goals and some pretty wild momentum shifts, so I decided to take a swing at the halftime/fulltime market just for the fun of it (2/1 @ 35, 1/2 @ 25). Kickoff is right at noon, but you can catch it live if you're watching.

Barcelona vs Deportivo over 2.5 @ 1.75; over 2.5 goals @ 1.95

Neither team has exactly set the world on fire this season, though let's be real—Barcelona isn't looking to climb the ladder right now; they're just trying to ensure they don't slide down into the second division. On the flip side, Deportivo has no time to waste—they need to get their act together and push for a return to the top flight immediately. Looking back at their last two meetings, we saw scores of 2:1 and 2:3 (with the guys from La Coruña taking both), so I don't see any reason why today would follow a different script. Match starts at noon, but it'll be available for live betting.

Roger Phillips said:Jong Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard

http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/5609/Eerste-d...aar-KNVB.dhtml

Basically, Ajax is in a massive bind for this matchup; I can't even look at a decent lineup right now. Alfons Groenendijk filed an appeal with the KNVB, but they shot down the request to postpone the game.

For instance, if it's sitting at 2.60, there's a chance it moves, and you should definitely expect those odds to drop.

Ajax is going to have to field 5 players from the first team🙂

What do you guys think—can our boys take down the Americans today?
I reckon they can, regardless of how poorly we've been playing lately.

We have far too much individual talent and a clear edge over the Americans. Plus, there’s no pressure from recent results, and I'm sure the national team players are incredibly motivated to prove themselves after the whole country tore them apart.

The issue is that we have as many as ten American players facing potential suspensions ahead of the playoffs. Even Mandžukić and Modrić are at risk... So everyone might steer clear of aggressive plays—though we all know how those Scots tend to play. In any "normal" scenario, betting on the US at 2.40 would be a gift, but today, the circumstances are making things quite complicated...

Mandžukić?

I'm reading this on Index—not that they're exactly reliable, but let's hope they aren't making mistakes constantly:

- Modrić, Kranjčar, Vukojević and Jelavić are all on yellow cards and will miss the first game of the playoffs if cautioned against Scotland

Vedran Corluka, Luka Modrić, Mario Mandžukić, Niko Kranjčar, Nikica Jelavić, Gordon Schildenfeld, Ivan Strinić, Eduardo and Ognjen Vukojević are all on yellow cards and will miss the first game of the playoffs if cautioned against Scotland.

I picked this up from a few different news sites.

That’s basically the second lineup they're putting out for the Scotland match tonight. Honestly, is this just a gift from the bookies? Is the money sitting there waiting for us?

James Taylor3 said:What do you guys think, can our boys beat the Scots today?
I reckon they can, regardless of how crappy we've been playing lately.

We've got way too much individual talent and an edge over the Scots. We aren't feeling the pressure of the results, plus the national team guys are definitely fired up to prove they've still got it after the whole country tore them apart.

Are you kidding me? You actually believe that? 🤣

Total NO BET for me.
We were huge favorites back in Chicago, and we all know how that turned out... Scotland is a nightmare team at home, and knowing our players, nobody’s going to be mentally locked in tonight.
Add in that idiot on the bench and the fact that some players might be rested due to yellow cards... I wouldn't touch this with a ten-foot pole. There are plenty of better games to put on a parlay tonight. ☕

Bryan Adams6 said:Don't mess with me—you don't seriously believe this, do you? 🤣

A total NO BET for me.
We were huge favorites back in the States during that matchup, and we all know how that turned out... Scotland is a tough side at home, and knowing our players, nobody is going to be focused on tonight's game.
Add in that idiot sitting on the bench, plus the fact they'll likely rest guys due to yellow card issues... I wouldn't touch this with a ten-foot pole. There are much better games on the slate tonight to put on a parlay. ☕

Do you really think they aren't motivated?
It’s perfectly normal to me that they're fired up, considering how much everyone has been talking trash about them—they were used to being treated like superstars here in the US until just four or five weeks ago.
They're athletes; they're human beings. They want to show (or prove?) to the fans and the media that they're wrong.
Since the result practically doesn't matter for us, there's no pressure—which means they can play freely and potentially perform better than they have in their last few outings.

Norwegian (ibn)-Iceland 2 @1,85 SS

Given the current momentum and overall quality—it really feels like the right move to back Iceland here—if not for a straight win, then at least for this result... The Norwegians seem pretty deflated after that 0-3 loss to the Canadians, whereas these guys are playing the game of their lives. You’d almost expect them to make history tonight, if you catch my drift...