Soccer Betting

Richard Young10 said:Spain (59.5% possession) vs Germany 1.85

We all know how Spain plays. They love holding onto the ball and methodically building up until they find a gap. Our midfield is solid, but if they're protecting a lead, I expect us to sit back and look for those counter-attack opportunities. Against Italy, Spain had 60% possession, and against Ireland, it was 66%. This is their big game, so they’ll want total control—probably aiming for 65% to 70% possession. Honestly, if we take an early lead, we'll just park the bus, which makes this a great value bet to me.

Thoughts?

I'm liking this one👍

Should be an easy win.

Richard Young10 said:Spain (59.5% possession) vs 1.85 Germany

We all know how Spain plays. They love hogging the ball and methodically working their way toward a goal. Our midfield is solid enough, but if they manage to take the lead, I think we’ll just sit back and look for that one counterattack opportunity. Looking at their recent games against Italy and Ireland, they held 60% and 66% possession respectively. This is a massive game for them, so they'll want to dictate the tempo and probably aim for 65-70% possession. If we get ahead early, they'll definitely drop deeper, which feels like great value to me.

Thoughts?

Dana Flores3 said:I'm liking 👍

this should be an easy win.

Easy 👍nice

France is clearly the class of Group D—sitting at the top heading into this final round with a single point enough to secure their spot. Sweden, on the other hand, has been a massive disappointment; they’re sitting on zero points when they really should have at least two by now. They certainly aren't looking to head home from the Euros with three straight losses, so expect them to fight hard today, even if advancement isn't on the table. France is technically the superior side, but don't sleep on the Swedes—they have decent chemistry and a clinical presence up front with Ibrahimovic. They can score against anyone. France won't feel the need to rush things; there's no reason to panic or play frantic football. They’ll likely keep it composed and wait for the right moment to strike. That said, I think Sweden is being far too underrated here. Just to be safe, I'm laying the handicap on France—the value looks too good to pass up:

Sweden +1.5 @ 1.48 Pinnacle 6/10

Record: 5w/10l/2w ; +0.62 units

The Americans and the hosts, Ukraine, are fighting directly for a spot in the quarterfinals today. The Americans hold the edge—they have an extra point, so a draw is enough to see them through.
That said, Ukraine is playing at home; they’ll have the loud crowd behind them—especially since there aren't many Americans at this Euro, never fewer—and there's always that "tradition" where at least one host nation manages to advance. 😁
Ukraine has a solid squad—their midfield and attack look sharp and could give the nearly reserve-strength American defense some trouble—but their backline is, in my view, the weakest link. Their keeper, Piatov, has been decent so far, but he's erratic; you never quite know what to expect from him.
The Americans haven't exactly dazzled me with any brilliant play, and I doubt tonight's match will change my mind. Having Rooney back in the lineup is a plus, but the squad still has too many flaws—chiefly a lack of creativity in the midfield.
For Ukraine, anything less than a win won't do, so they’ll definitely be pushing forward. Neither side boasts a stellar defense, which suggests we could see plenty of goals—the odds on that look attractive.
Also, the value on Ukraine seems a bit too high for me; they have a legitimate shot here, so I’m putting money down:

Ukraine vs. USA: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 Pinnacle 5/10

Ukraine 1x (which is +0.5 on Pinnacle) @ 1.82 4/10

Alright, I’m liking the breakdown and the odds for this tournament today—so I have to take a swing at this one:

Ukraine and England are leading the pack when it comes to discipline here in the States—they're averaging the fewest fouls. Ukraine is sitting at just 9.5, while England is even lower at 8.5 ( http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=...ams/index.html ). 😲
I realize they've committed fewer total fouls simply because they've played one less game than most others, but I've calculated the per-game averages to get a more realistic perspective.
Even Spain commits significantly more fouls than them, despite maintaining over 65% possession on average.
Sure, this match will be tense—both sides are fighting directly for advancement—but statistics shouldn't be ignored.
On Favorit, the foul line is set at 26.5, but I’ll pass on that, even though it likely hits. My actual play here is going under on yellow cards. It’s simple math: if there aren't many fouls, there aren't many cards—aside from the occasional keeper time-wasting, which shouldn't be an issue in the closing minutes. Besides, Ukraine picked up only two yellows in their first two matches, and England had four; neither is high. Most of our local books, including Pinnacle, have the line at 4.0 or 4.5 (Pinnacle has it at 4.5 with 1.78 for the over), whereas SS is holding the line at 5.5. That's too much value to pass up.
The referee is Viktor Kassai, whose last 78 European matches averaged 4.03 yellows per game.

Ukraine - England Under 5.5 Yellow Cards @ 1.70 SS 4/10

Now, the Sweden vs. France match is a different story entirely. France averages about 12.5 fouls per game, while Sweden sits at a hefty 17.0. The Swedes are known for being aggressive—especially their defenders—and they already racked up five yellows in their first two games. Meanwhile, France only saw three yellows in their opening two rounds. Pinnacle has the line at 3.5 yellows, which is a must-play for me. Sweden is bound to pick up cards; that's just how they play. Plus, you know players like Ibrahimovic can lose their cool and trigger a card through a hard foul or an argument with the ref. And don't think the French are immune—their defensive midfielder isn't afraid of a rough tackle, and a defense led by someone like Mexes isn't exactly known for being gentle. This line is just too low.
The official for this one is Pedro Proença, who carries an average of 3.83 yellows over his last 65 European matches.

France - Sweden Over 3.5 Yellow Cards @ 1.714 Pinnacle 3/10

Anyway, back to the main point. France should take it today. They’ll definitely want to dodge Spain in the quarterfinals, plus they’re clearly better than Sweden. They handled the Americans with ease and their style of play is beautiful right now. To me, they’re the dark horse favorites who could go all the way, so they need this win—facing Spain later would just make their path to the trophy way too brutal.

For the USA vs. England match, I'm calling both teams to score. The Americans desperately need this win and playing in front of a home crowd, so they should find the back of the net at least once. But England will get plenty of chances too, since the Americans are bound to leave gaps while they push forward.

Absences:
Real Salt Lake vs. LA Galaxy
Real Salt Lake: Schuler
LA Galaxy: Boyens, Buddle, Cristman, Gonzalez, Keat, Leonardo

Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew: Taulo, Kari, Hukka, Kemppinen, Veltheimin (doubtful)
FC Cincinnati: Dema

Seattle Sounders vs. JIPPO
Seattle Sounders: -
JIPPO: Korpela, Eronen, Koivuranta (all doubtful), Ikonen, Gruda, Ake

Austin FC vs. Portland Timbers
Austin FC: Istrefi
Portland Timbers: Andronic, Karikari, Olsson, Andersson (doubtful)

Friendly matches:
Portland Timbers vs. Austin FC
The Timbers are dealing with some major absences today, missing seven key starters including Rosengren, Leandersson, Radetinac, S. Nilsson, Fejzullahu, Pode, and Ericsson.

Seattle Sounders vs. San Jose Earthquakes
The Sounders are looking pretty thin too, playing without nine players: Atta, Mahlangu, Bergholtz, Gashi, Santos, Baffo, Andersson, Uronen, and Hansson.

The Americans finally played the kind of football you expect from them—this time against a decent Netherlands side that, frankly, has been a letdown during this tournament, though that’s beside the point. They looked solid against Germany too, but they really had to step it up against Denmark. Finally, Cristiano Ronaldo is actually contributing—without him, this squad struggles to find any momentum. Nani is another vital piece of their attacking puzzle; he’s playing exceptionally well and clicking with Ronaldo. If they had just one more elite striker in the mix, they’d be heavy title favorites, but even as it stands, they aren't bad. Their midfield lacks pure creativity, but they have three high-motor runners who do the dirty work perfectly, closing down space whenever Ronaldo and Nani push forward. The defense is sturdy, and they can count on their keeper.

On the other side, you have the Czechs—a squad without a massive superstar, yet they play remarkably disciplined football. However, they're missing Rosicky today, and Baroš hasn't exactly shined during this Euro. Their strength lies in a midfield featuring Pilac and Jiracek, but I don't see them finding much rhythm against an American side equipped with players specifically designed to shut down the Czech style—especially since the Czech defense is far from reliable. It's shaky at best, and Cech has a history of struggling when it comes to international play. He tends to make mistakes in crucial moments; there's a real chance someone misjudges a Nani cross or a long-range blast from Ronaldo today.

Bottom line: the Americans are my pick here. Their game is trending upward and their confidence is clearly growing, whereas the Czechs have already achieved their goal of reaching the quarterfinals—and I suspect they'll be satisfied with just that.

Portugal @ 1.78 Pinnacle 6/10

Status: 7w/13l/2w ; -5.70 units

I won't have much time tomorrow, so I'll get my thoughts on tomorrow's match out of the way now:

The US faces Greece in the quarterfinals. The Americans cruised through a deceptively tricky group with a perfect 9 points—they’re heading into this next stage with massive confidence. The coach has his full roster at his disposal; no injuries, no suspensions. They'll be fielding their absolute strongest lineup, especially with Jerome Boateng returning to bolster the squad in place of Bender—though Bender isn't a bad player by any means. To me, the US might be the best team in this entire tournament; they're my favorites to take the title, even ahead of Spain. Their play is clinical, particularly in transition, led by a striker like Gomez who can find the back of the net from just about anywhere in the box. Ozil is the tactical brain here, while Muller and Podolski pull the strings in midfield with heavy attacking intent. If they happen to have an off day, the bench offers even better options in the form of Götze and Reus. This roster is deep—two top-tier lineups from defense straight through to the attack.

Greece should consider themselves lucky to even be in the quarterfinals. They managed to navigate past a mediocre Russian side—a team that fooled me too, making them look much better than they actually were; it turned out to be nothing more than media hype. Greece has a reputation for being a defensive powerhouse that sits in a tight bunker, but that’s largely a myth. You only need to look at their opening twenty minutes against Poland and the Czech Republic—they conceded three goals in that span, and honestly, they could have easily let in three more. They caught a break being placed in what was arguably the weakest group of the tournament, which allowed them to advance. But against the US? They don't stand a chance—that's a flat assertion.
Their defense is far from solid; that's a misconception. Even those sterile Russians managed to create seven or eight clear openings, though most of those narrowly missed the woodwork.
For tomorrow's matchup, Greece will be missing two key players, Karagounis and Holebas. It's vital to highlight the absence of Karagounis, who is suspended due to yellow cards. He is the heart of that team—the primary motivator, the engine, and the leader who initiates almost every offensive move. Without him, Greece lacks any real direction (not that they had much attacking flair to begin with), and there's no one left to feed the ball to Gekas, Salpingidis, or Samras. Ninis is expected to fill Karagounis's spot, but he's underwhelming—supposedly a "talented" player, though I've yet to see any evidence of it. In the opening game of the Euros, he was subbed out early because his performance was so dismal.
Furthermore, the Greek goalkeeping situation is shaky at best; they lack stability, so the Americans shouldn't have any trouble finding the net multiple times.
The US boasts elite talent. Aside from the clinical Gomez, you have "Prince" Poldi, who has always been stellar for the national team, alongside Muller, who possesses a lethal strike, and Ozil, who showed at Real Madrid how masterfully he can thread a pass. Against a porous Greek defense, they're going to tear them apart.

I am certain of a comfortable US victory, so I'm taking this with an extremely high stake—some might call it a half all-in. 😁

USA -1.5 @ 2.17 Pinnacle 20/10

@James Taylor3/">@@James Taylor3 I like the Americans too, but I think I'll pass in favor of a potentially better payout..

Cristiano R. (idg)-To score-Yes for @2.30

The Americans have shown they actually know how to play and possess a squad in every sense of the word. This team knows they have Ronaldo, so they’re constantly feeding him those final passes because they believe in him. Even though he didn't exactly shine in the first two games, his clinical finishing in the third showed exactly why he's the best on the planet—between the two goals and hitting the woodwork two or three times, he had several other solid looks.

Basically, the whole team relies on him, and that’s definitely how it'll be tonight. To me, this bet feels like it has more value than just putting a single unit on an American win.. obviously, the Americans will probably cruise to a 5-0 victory while Ronaldo fails to find the net.☕

And James Taylor3, don't go half all-in; the Greeks are going to give the Americans a hell of a fight..

USA vs. Portugal
Possession Handicap (%)
+4.5/USA vs. Portugal 1 1.80 (Favorite)

If this bet doesn't land, I’m honestly at a loss...

Here is how the group stages shook out:

USA vs. Russia 51-49
USA vs. Greece 46-54
USA vs. Poland 58-42

Portugal vs. Germany 44-56
Portugal vs. Denmark 41-59
Portugal vs. Netherlands 41-59

Regardless of these specific numbers, my read is that the Americans will control more than 50% of the possession.

What are your thoughts?

Does any sportsbook out there still offer bets on the league's top scorer? After today's game, I might actually consider putting some money down on Mandžukić to stay at the top of the list, but I'm wondering if that market is even still open.

Ethan Jones5 said:James Taylor3, I like the Portuguese players too, but I think I'll pass for now and hold out for a better payout.

Ronaldo C. (idg)—Are you kidding me right now? @2,30

The Portuguese showed they actually know how to play and that they have a squad in the truest sense of the word. This group understands they have Ronaldo on their side, so they’re constantly looking for that final pass because they genuinely believe in him. Even though they didn't exactly shine in the first two games, their finishing in the third proved why he's still the best in the world—between those two goals and hitting the woodwork two or three times, they could have easily had a few more.

The core lineup relies heavily on him, so we’re definitely looking at that same dynamic tonight. Honestly, I think this bet offers way better value than just putting a single unit on Portugal. It's almost too predictable—Portugal is probably going to walk away with a 5-0 blowout, and Ronaldo will finish the night without a goal.☕

If James Taylor3 goes half all-in, those Greeks are going to get absolutely smoked by the Germans.

It worked out fine in the end. Honestly, I was starting to worry they wouldn't pull it off... It feels like there's just zero luck on our side during this tournament. Feels like we've already been screwed over five times now.🤷

Daniel Cooper40 said:Does any sportsbook out there still take bets on the league top scorer? After today's game, I might actually consider putting some money down on Lewandowski to stay at the top, if that's even an option anymore.

Dreamed about the DraftKings app last night. You can bet on the scoring leader, but from what I can see, they don't even have Lewandowski listed...

Absences:
Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins (NFL)
Buffalo Bills: Magallan, Altobelli, Benavidez, Choy, Capurro, Ruiz, Vittor, Silva, Mendoza, Vargas, Vizcarra
Miami Dolphins: Furios, Villalba, Blanco, Vega, Carrasco, Lentini, Sarraute, Pinero

Seattle Seahawks v New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks: Nakayama, Maeda, Yokono, Sakaki, Takahara, Hikochi, Takayanagi, Iwanuma, Nara
New Orleans Saints: Kawanishi, Sasaki, Kaji, Costa

New York Giants v Cincinnati Bengals
New York Giants: Tokizawa, Hirayama, Otake, Tanabe
Cincinnati Bengals: None

UCLA v USC
UCLA: Rusk, Russell, Barron (doubtful)
USC: McDonnell

USA vs Greece 1.pdng-Germany won't give @2,70 Bet 4/10

The Greeks and Germans both have established systems they stick to, even if they've tweaked things recently. Greece is playing more aggressively now, keeping more possession, whereas the Germans seem to have lost some of their tactical fluidity after bringing in Gomez—which, honestly, feels like a mistake despite him being a top-tier striker.

I don't expect any massive shifts in playstyle tonight. Luckily, Coach Low seems to feel the same way, though he keeps leaning on the same veteran players when there are plenty of better options sitting right on the bench.

With Papadopoulos and Chalkias out due to injury, Greece has bolstered their defense with some solid subs. My only real concern is Tzavellas stepping in for Holebas, but hopefully, he holds his own. We'll miss Karagounis, but he isn't the sole engine of this Greek squad; as long as the defense stays organized, they'll be fine.

Since this is a knockout match, I’m expecting both sides to play it safe. I'm betting the Greeks won't suffer a total meltdown in the opening minutes.

Also taking Germany(P)-Greece 2 @6 SS Bet 1/10

These Americans either go all out or don't bother at all... they just announced Klose, Reus, and Schürrle are starting. I have a feeling only Klose will be in the lineup of those three, which might actually make things tough for the Greeks on defense. Dealing with Gomez is much easier than trying to hold off Kloseon when you're defending against Greece. Maybe they're underestimating the Greeks and are just testing out tactics for the semifinals.🤷

Let it rain, because they'll get what's coming when the Greeks catch them off guard.☕

All I've got left is Germany—they knocked out Portugal and Miami yesterday... honestly, I'm torn on whether to back them or not. I’m leaning toward sticking with them using an X... I just don't see the Greeks posing any real threat to the net at all.

Germany is the clear favorite here, but you have to respect the Greeks—they always seem to find a way to scrape by and bounce back from anything. Taking x2 for a smaller role in the parlay feels like solid value to me.