Soccer Betting

posted this in the wrong spot, my bad mods

Believe it or not, you can actually delete it yourself

8:45 PM Germany vs. Greece - Klose scores 1st goal @ 8.00

I guess it might be worth a shot. Gomez is out, and Klose looks hungry for some goals. They're also missing Podolski and Müller, but I’m expecting the Germans to come out super strong here. Relying on their center forward to get on the scoresheet doesn't seem like such a huge risk given those odds. Maybe just a small wager, though.

edit: An offside call and Lahm kept it from hitting, but hey, still worth the try!

steelharbor9 said:8:45 PM Germany vs. Greece - Klose scores 1st goal @ 8.00

I guess it’s worth a shot, honestly. Gomez is out, Klose is absolutely starving for goals, and we're missing Podolski and Müller too. Since I'm expecting the Germans to come out strong and dominate early, playing through the center forward to open up the scoring doesn't seem like such a huge risk given those insane odds. Just a small bet, maybe.

edit: Offside and Lahm ruined it. Still, totally worth the attempt.

Man, where did you even find this three minutes before kickoff? No way. I found it on my lottery app like twenty minutes before the start and the odds had already dropped to 3.00.

Look, I was just playing defense with an X, but whatever—as long as we end up in the green, who cares...

For tomorrow, I’m eyeing Spain-France to be a scoreless first half (2.75). My gut says both sides are going to play it safe and stay cautious instead of throwing everything at the wall early on. Honestly, a draw at the end wouldn't surprise me one bit.

As for the second matchup, I’m taking under 2.5 goals for Naftan-Gomel. Looking at the numbers, Naftan’s goal difference is 9:16, while Gomel sits at 16:5 over 13 games. They recently played a cup match that ended 0:0, and most of their recent outings have stayed well under that 2.5 line. In their 13 league games, Gomel only went over four times, and Naftan 6th coefficient is sitting around 1.55-1.60. (Btw, this pairing isn't even listed on PSK, no idea why they left it out).

George Ward7 said:There's no way you found this three minutes before kickoff. Impossible. I checked the lottery just twenty minutes before the start, and the odds had already dropped to 3.00.

You're probably just betting on Klose scoring, but he's playing to get that firstgoal😉.

Ethan Jones5 said:You’re probably just watching because you want Klose to score, but he's actually playing to get that first goal in😉.

Facts. I just caught what he was doing now.

Injury Report:
Houston Dynamo vs. Columbus Crew
Houston Dynamo: Avelino, Licht, Santander, Martinez (questionable), Cahais, Yacob, Moreno, Pelletieri, Toranzo, Caballero
Columbus Crew: Cubero, Canteros, Zapata, Cerro, Velazquez

Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati
Orlando City: Neto (questionable), Clebinho, Mendes
FC Cincinnati: Bombinha, Washington, Gamalho, Joelson, Alvinho, Camilo (questionable)

Chicago Fire vs. Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire: Gibbs, Kinney
Columbus Crew: Heinemann, Hesmer, Marshall, Urso, Balchan, Duka, Mendes

San Jose Earthquakes vs. LA Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes: Ichiyanagi, Kondo, Sakamoto, Okazaki, Tanaka, Ishihara, Hattori, Kawamata, Honorio, Gonzaga, Kamijo
LA Galaxy: Sung Keun, Takasaki
Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders: Arata
Portland Timbers: Endo, Kobayashi, Shimomura, Igari

The matchup between Team USA and France is easily the most compelling quarterfinal in this tournament. The Americans are hunting for their third consecutive major title—a lofty goal—and today won't be a walk in the park. France boasts a stellar roster filled with elite talents capable of deciding a game with a single moment of brilliance. The Achilles' heel for the Americans remains the flanks; the fullbacks haven't looked world-class, a weakness exposed during the group stage when opponents sliced through them with ease. Similarly, even Iker Casillas—who is arguably the premier, most complete keeper playing today—has shown some vulnerability coming off his line on crosses. France has wingers who can exploit those gaps. The sheer creativity of Ribery paired with Debuchy’s technical skill should keep those American defenders on edge, especially since Benzema is such a physical threat in the air and will likely feast on any loose deliveries.
France has a decent foundation, but there isn't much else to say. They're also missing Mexes, their defensive anchor, leaving a massive question mark regarding how Deschamps will patch that hole. Hugo Lloris hasn't looked particularly sharp this season compared to previous years, which gives the Americans a distinct advantage. A trio like David Silva, Iniesta, and Torres would dismantle almost any defense in the world, let alone a depleted French backline.
Given these dynamics, I expect plenty of goals. Since we're in the knockout stages, if one side takes the lead late, they'll have to chase the game, which usually opens up more scoring opportunities.
The odds for the "over" on Pinnacle are massive—significantly higher than the global average of 2.41, while domestic US books are offering nothing. 🙄
DraftKings is sitting at 1.90 (effectively 1.81 without the vig), while FanDuel and BetMGM are at 2.00 (1.90 without the vig). Meanwhile, Bovada is lagging behind at 2.20 (2.09 without the vig).
None of them are even close to reflecting the true value here, which I'd peg at roughly 2.30. The discrepancy at Pinnacle caught my eye, so that's where I'm putting my money:

USA vs. France: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.58 Pinnacle 6/10

Record: 9w/13l/2v ; +22.38 units

Another bet for today's matchup:

Today’s referee is Italian Nicolla Rizzoli—not exactly known for handing out yellow cards. His average sits at just 3.69 yellows per game.
He already officiated one match for the French side earlier in this tournament during their opening round against the English, and he didn't issue a single card. Remarkable.

I took a look at his stats over the last two seasons involving Barcelona (using them as a proxy for Spanish clubs, since the Spanish national team plays similarly and most players are based there)
Rizzoli handled two Champions League matches for Barcelona in the last two seasons; once he gave them two yellows, the next time he gave none. As for Real Madrid, he gave them two yellows once and four the other time. Though, to be fair, Spain plays more like Barcelona—high possession, less grit than Real.
Both the Spanish and French sides have seen very few cards through the first three matches. Spain has picked up 5 yellows (1.66 per game), while France has only 4 (1.33 per game). Regarding fouls, neither side is particularly aggressive—Spain averages 12, France averages 13.
A significant number of players are facing suspension if they pick up a card today. For the Spanish, that includes Fernando Torres, Xabi Alonso, Jordi Alba, Alvaro Arbeloa and Javi Martinez, while for the French, it's Mathieu Debuchy and Jeremy Menez (the starters, according to the lineup). They'll likely play clean to avoid the bench.

USA - France: Under 4.5 yellow cards @ 1.85 (1.76 without insurance) SS 3/10

Note: Best to place this via SS. Aside from the better odds, they only count regulation time, whereas other books or Pinnacle will include extra time in the total.

I wouldn't bother worrying about the yellow cards. They clear them out after the quarterfinals anyway, so players aren't going to hold back much.🤷

Ethan Jones5 said:I wouldn’t bother obsessing over the yellow cards—they tend to get wiped clean after the quarterfinals anyway. Players aren't exactly going to hold back once that happens.🤷

That’s right—suspensions clear after the quarterfinals, but anyone handed one tonight is out for the semifinals if they even make it that far.

This only applies to players who already hold a yellow card and don't pick up another one today.

James Taylor3 said:Exactly, cards get cleared after the quarterfinals, but anyone picking up a suspension tonight is out for the semifinals if they make it that far.

That only applies to players who are already on a yellow and don't pick one up tonight.

Personally, I’m expecting more yellows. The French defense looks wide open aside from Debuchy, and both sides have lethal attackers paired with pretty shaky backlines.

The ref doesn't usually hand out many cards, but he might go heavy today, so we'll see. If you hadn't given me your "analysis," I wouldn't be thinking this way, but you've got me convinced.😉

Even if I end up losing my bet, this referee—Rizzoli, or whatever his name is—is the real deal. He calls the heavy contact, lets the guys actually play, and doesn't fall for any of that diving nonsense. In my book, he's the guy you want officiating the championship🤷

Ethan Jones5 said:So I lost my bet, but this referee—Rizzoli or whatever his name is—is the real deal. He only calls the heavy hits, lets the guys actually play, and doesn't fall for any of that theatrical diving crap. Honestly? I'm calling it now: he’s officiating the Super Bowl.🤷

If Italy doesn't make the finals, I'm gonna lose it. 😁

Absences:
Tigre vs. Independiente
Tigre: Maggiol
Independiente: Argancha, Velazquez, Assman, Gabbarini, Pizzini

IFK Lulea vs. Sirius (US Division 1)
IFK Lulea: Brannstrom, Westman, Ostlind
Sirius: Bjorkebaum (doubtful)

Atletico GO vs. Fluminense
Atletico GO: Bob, Pituca
Fluminense: Neves, Sobis, Fred, Moura, Diguinho, Valencia

Valerenga vs. Stabaek
Valerenga: Nordvik (likely out), Kone, Oussou, Leigh, Ogude, Pusic
Stabaek: Aase (likely out)

ita - eng t.r. 0-0

Two heavy-hitting defenses facing off in this first knockout round... honestly, I'm expecting a total grind with barely any openings for either side. Probably looking at our first 0-0 draw of the tournament. The stakes are massive, the talent levels are dead even, and let's be real—it’s high time we finally saw a scoreless game in this thing...

Hopefully that's enough for ya ☕

Charles Doyle6 said:I hope this provides enough material. ☕

Word count is irrelevant—any idiot can churn out five pages of pure nonsense.

It matters that you explain your reasoning for picking a specific matchup—whether you take five sentences or twenty to lay it out.

Here are my picks for today:

Tonight we find out who takes the final spot in the semifinals. It’s a heavyweight matchup between England and Italy—and frankly, the Italians have looked far superior throughout this tournament. To be blunt, the English side hasn't impressed me at all. They scraped by France with a scoreless draw, mostly just sitting back and defending without actually doing much of anything. Their performance against Sweden was decent enough, though they still conceded two goals. Against Ukraine, they were lucky to walk away with a win—a narrow result aided heavily by the officiating. Ukraine outplayed them for large stretches; they controlled the tempo and created chances, they just lacked that one clinical striker to finish the job. Italy, on the other hand, has Balotelli, Cassano, and a very solid Montolivo anchoring things from the midfield. They played well in the group stages—not that anyone needs a recap of those matches, given how closely everyone watched them. They play an attacking brand of football and create plenty of openings. I don't see England being able to contain Balotelli, Cassano, Pirlo, and Montolivo tonight. England seems set to run the same lineup they used against Ukraine. There are no changes, which makes little sense to me—why insist on Milner when Lennon would clearly be a more dangerous option in the starting eleven? Looking at the roster, only Gerrard and Rooney offer any real offensive threat, and that likely won't be enough to break down a disciplined Italian defense. Italy does have some injury concerns—Chiellini is out, so expect his Juventus teammate Bonucci to step in. It looks like Motta might be missing as well, but Montolivo is a capable, penetrating player who should handle the defensive duties just fine.
The Italians are my pick tonight—I’m putting money on them.

Italy — @ 2.84 Pinnacle — 5/10.

Current standing: 10 wins, 15 losses, 2 draws; up by 9.10 units.

The Americans will struggle against that Italian attack—I suspect they’ll concede more than just one. While the Italian defense has been solid so far, today might be the day they finally crack. This is the quarterfinals; the stakes are too high for reckless play, so expect a much more cautious approach than we saw in the group stages. However, if Italy manages to find the net in the first half, the remaining 45 minutes will turn into pure chaos—especially those final 20. The odds on the over are too good to pass up, so I'm taking them:

England vs. Italy — over 2.0 goals @ 2.07 Pinnacle — 4/10.

Note.If we end up with exactly two goals in this match, my stake comes back.

Today’s match will be officiated by American referee Pedro Proenca—whose average in European competitions and international fixtures is... 3.82 Yellow card. Last season, he officiated 12 games involving them—and his average was... 5.17 Yellow cards. In just three of those twelve matches, he handed out fewer than five. The Italians have been aggressive—clocking nine yellows in their first three games, an average of 3.00 per match—whereas the Americans have played a much cleaner game, picking up only five in three matches, averaging 1.67. To be fair, several players on both sides—names like Oxlade-Chamberlain, Young, Milner, Cole, and Gerrard for the Americans, plus Maggio, Balotelli, Bonucci, Motta, Montolivo, Buffon, Balzaretti, and De Rossi for the Italians—have to watch their step. A single yellow here means a suspension for the semifinals. But even though we saw a similar high-stakes scenario yesterday with the Spanish and French teams, I’m looking at this through a different lens today. If things go south, players from both squads will get more aggressive—lots of dissent toward the ref, likely leading to some late cautions. Conversely, if the Italians find themselves in the lead, we all know the drill: tactical fouling, time-wasting, the usual antics. I suspect the Portuguese referee won't have much patience for that. One silver lining for my bet is Mario Balotelli; he rarely finishes a match without a card and has a knack for baiting opponents. Then there’s Terry, Parker, and Rooney—none of them exactly known for their saintly composure. Since this is a knockout stage, extra time is always on the table—and those additional 30 minutes can only help my card count. So, I'm taking:

England vs. Italy — Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 1.901 Pinnacle 3/10

James Taylor3 said:Word count doesn't mean squat... any idiot can churn out five pages of pure garbage...

I mean, I get what you're saying, but if I had just written "Russia wins" because they’re clearly the better team and that's who I'm betting on, the whole damn post would've just vanished...

Data isn't everything. Sometimes you just gotta trust your gut and take a swing... 😛