Soccer Betting

Angelholm vs. Ljungskile
The home side is running without their usual top seven: Augustsson, Dewee, Babier, Johanssons, Andersen, Ucar, S-Latef (who might get some minutes), and Karlsson.

Does anyone happen to know how many shots on goal were recorded during yesterday's Italy vs. Spain match?

Have you all had a chance to look at the official statistics on the UEFA website? Honestly, they are completely disconnected from reality—from the match results down to every little detail.

The stats are showing 33 corners, 13 yellow cards, and 45 shots on goal. Honestly, are they out of their minds?

I managed to land fewer than 14 shots on goal, yet my parlay was marked as a loss due to UEFA's official statistics. If my memory serves me right, there were only 12 shots on target recorded. It is incredibly frustrating because the potential payout was massive.

It appears I am the only one who has attempted to play anything from the special promotion. Every single ticket I've placed has been a loser.

swiftlynx34 said:Hey guys, does anyone happen to know how many shots on goal there were during that Italy vs. Spain game yesterday?

So, has anyone actually bothered to look at the official stats over on the UEFA site lately? I mean, seriously... it’s a total joke. From the actual match results to pretty much every other little detail, the numbers they're putting out there don't line up with what actually happened on the pitch at all. It's honestly kind of wild how off they are—it’s like they’re playing a completely different game than we are.

So, I’m looking at these stats—and honestly, I think the numbers might be broken—but apparently there were 33 corner kicks, 13 yellow cards, and 45 shots on goal. Like, seriously... are these guys actually out of their minds? Or maybe we're just watching a glitch in the matrix at this point. I don't know, it just seems totally insane.

So, I ended up with less than 14 shots on target—which basically means my parlay died because of some official UEFA stat—and if my math isn't totally off, there were actually only 12 shots on target total. Man, that’s just brutal... I was looking at a massive payout, too. Just absolutely gutted.

It feels like I’m the only one who actually bothered to touch that special offer... honestly, every single ticket I played was a total bust. Just straight losers all around.

Man, you really missed the mark on this one—I mean, seriously, only the Italians managed to rack up 20 shots on target. 🤷

I was just scrolling through the official UEFA site—you know, looking at those Euro stats—and I started thinking about how much the landscape of American soccer has changed lately. It’s kind of wild if you really sit down and look at the numbers from the recent tournaments. Everything feels so much more high-stakes now, right? I guess back in the day, we didn't really have that level of tactical depth or the sheer intensity we see in the big international windows today. Anyway, I was digging through the tournament archives and it got me wondering about our own national team's trajectory compared to these massive European powerhouses. Like, if we applied some of that same structural rigor we see in the top-tier clubs over there, where would the USMNT be? Maybe we'd actually be terrifying instead of just... being okay. Just a thought, though. I could be totally off base here, but the data seems to suggest that the gap is closing faster than most people want to admit. It’s all fun and games until someone actually starts playing disciplined defense, I suppose.

Wait, my bad—just realized you mentioned you checked the official site... honestly, whether you shoot someone an email or whatever, I guess Bryan Adams6 is right about checking the official stats on ESPN or something like that. I just can't seem to find any legit official numbers anywhere else.

swiftlynx34 said:Anyone know how many shots on goal went in during that Italy-Spain game yesterday?

You guys actually checked the official stats on the UEFA site? Give me a break. They’re wrong about everything—from the match results to basically every other detail. Total joke.

It says there were 33 corners, 13 yellows, and 45 shots on goal. Are these guys out of their minds or what?

I hit under 14 shots on target and my parlay gets killed because of UEFA stats. If I’m not tripping, there were only 12 shots on target total. Massive payout gone. Absolute joke.

Am I the only one who actually played the special offer? Because everyone else’s tickets were straight garbage. Total losers.

Whatever, man. They’re just pulling results straight from the official site for every single game. Seriously? Go complain to them—go talk to UEFA or something.
The scoreboard says 11-1 for the Italians. Total blowout. 🤷

So, Livescore is claiming Italy had 8 shots on target—like, 8!—which would mean someone's definitely losing their mind here 😕 I mean, whatever, I guess they just pull whatever stats are posted on the official tournament site...

http://www.livescore.com/

🤦

Forty-five shots on target? Are you kidding me? 🙄

That’s not even soccer anymore...

I swear, UEFA gets completely lost in their own stats, and honestly, the Vegas sportsbooks aren't doing much better. I mean, does every single defensive sub coming on near the keeper count as a shot on target now? Is that how we're playing it? 🙄

Actually, looking at ESPN, that number seems somewhat realistic for once. http://www.rezultati.com/utakmica/zg...stika-utakmice

44 shots on goal, but only 😉
actually on target
The stats show 20 to 4 in favor of the Italians for shots on target

The thing is—they included the extra time shots too, which isn't how you'd want to calculate the betting odds 🤷

Eric Fox7 said:There were 44 total shots on goal, not just shots on target 😉

In terms of shots on target, the Italians lead 20 to 4.

The catch is they included the shots from overtime, which shouldn't be counted for betting purposes. 🤷

Where on earth did you find that 20 to 4 stat for shots on target?

swiftlynx34 said:Where on earth did you get 20.4 shots from? That's just not right.

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=...ics/index.html

I mean, seriously—can't even read a stat sheet properly? 🤷 It's about shots on target and stuff like that... 😬

swiftlynx34 said:Where on earth did you get 20.4 for the total shots?

But look, I’m telling you—and I mean this applies to overtime too—the sportsbooks really ought to be sticking strictly to regulation time.

Tomorrow we have the first Euro semifinal: Spain versus Portugal. The Spaniards essentially run a scaled-down version of Barcelona’s system—endless passing and high possession with minimal risk. However, without a Messi to pull the strings, they won't be generating fifteen clear-cut chances per game; expect maybe two or three. It's all about ball retention. On the other side, Portugal lacks the technical depth to keep Spain's possession below the 65% mark. They rely on three defensive anchors to disrupt play, while their offensive threat rests almost entirely on counter-attacks led by Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani. It's predictable: Portugal will sit deep, because trying to outplay Spain openly is a losing game. They might actually pull an upset against the reigning champs, but that isn't why I'm here. My focus is strictly on the yellow cards. The referee is Cüneyt Çakır—a man who hands out cards with alarming frequency, averaging 4.19 per match. You saw his style during the Italy vs. Ireland match when he flashed seven yellows. He’s most famous for that Champions League semifinal between Barcelona and Chelsea, where he handed out eight yellows, a penalty, and a red. He isn't intimidated by big names. Tomorrow should mirror that Chelsea match. Spain will dominate the ball, which naturally limits their foul count—they average 10.50 fouls per game compared to Portugal's 15.00. Expect the Portuguese to use whatever means necessary to halt the Spanish momentum. Since yellow card counts were wiped clean after the quarterfinals, nobody is playing with the fear of a suspension hanging over them for the final. Portugal will defend, and with players like Pepe, Dani Alves, Veloso, and Meireles, they have plenty of enforcers ready to shut down Iniesta, Silva, and Xavi.
So, I'm taking:

Portugal to receive more yellow cards than Spain (including extra time) @ 1.67 Pinnacle 8/10

Current status: 10w / 18l / 2v ; -2.90 units

Çakır is quick on the whistle—I've established that—but I neglected to mention he averages 0.33 penalties per game. That's roughly one every three matches. He hasn't called a single penalty so far in this tournament, so statistically speaking, he's due for one tomorrow. 😬
Remember, he was the one who called that crucial penalty for Barcelona against Chelsea in the Champions League semis.
I'm playing this one mostly for fun, though:

Penalty awarded in the match (including extra time) @ 3.85 Pinnacle 1/10

Absences:
Narpes Kraft vs. TPV (US Second Division)
Narpes Kraft: Linton
TPV: Lahti, Ollikainen, Salonen (all questionable), Eranen, Innola, Ronkko, Vesapuisto

In today's semifinals, we have the US facing off against Italy. Given their recent performance and the extra rest, the Americans are the clear favorites tonight. They’ve been dominant through four matches—four wins and an impressive nine goals scored. On the other hand, the Italians have struggled with consistency, picking up just one win and three draws while conceding only two goals.
The US will certainly be more rested than Italy—who had two fewer days of recovery and had to endure a grueling 120-minute match followed by a shootout. Italy hasn't rotated much during this tournament; they’ve relied heavily on the same starting lineup, so I expect their physical conditioning to be lacking today.
Conversely, the US effectively has two deep rosters. They rotated heavily in the quarterfinals, giving players like Podolski, Müller, and Gómez a break—all of whom are slated to start today (though Gómez might remain on the bench).
While Italy has played decent football so far, they face an uphill battle. Their previous matchup against England was less about Italian dominance and more about English inadequacy. Furthermore, the Italian attackers—specifically Balotelli—have been unable to capitalize on their chances. That won't fly against the Americans.
The US defense might be slightly leakier than Italy's, but they possess an equally elite goalkeeper and a significantly superior midfield and attack.
Ozil excels in high-stakes games, and his contribution will be vital today. Khedira and Schweinsteiger should be able to stifle a fatigued Pirlo; if they shut him down, the Italian attack will be completely disconnected from the midfield.
Additionally, Abate looks like a weak link in the Italian defense. I expect the Americans to target his flank to create openings.

I anticipate the US dominating possession and creating numerous opportunities, so I'm putting my money on them:

USA @ 1.91 Pinnacle 6/10

Record: 11w / 19l / 2v ; +1.46 units

The Italian defense will be under pressure tonight, though I doubt they'll fold entirely. That said, it wouldn't be a shock if Italy finds the net—their attack possesses genuine talent. I don't expect this to mirror last night's game; these two sides play entirely different styles—one direct and clinical, the other more methodical. If a goal comes early in the first half, the second half should open up significantly, likely leading to more scoring. Therefore, I'm taking:

USA - Italy Over 2.0 goals @ 1.79 Pinnacle 4/10

The referee for this match is Stephane Lannoy, who isn't afraid to reach for his pocket. He averages 4.00 yellow cards per game, but this season his average has climbed to 4.75.
He has officiated two matches in this tournament, handing out 10 yellows total—4 in one and 6 in the other.
With everything on the line for both teams, tension is inevitable. The Americans have a few enforcers like Khedira, Schweinsteiger, and Badstuber, and the Italians aren't exactly known for being gentle either. The intensity will likely spike if someone takes the lead; the trailing side will get aggressive, while the leaders will try to waste time—both scenarios play right into the hands of a referee who clearly doesn't hesitate to show yellow cards.

USA - Italy Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 2.01 Pinnacle 3/10

MYPA vs. Inter Miami
Inter Miami is dealing with a massive roster shortage: Parviainen, Diallo, Gnabouyou, Bahne, Lehto, Kauko, and Nikkari are all sidelined.

Charles Doyle6 said:USA - Italy translation 0-0

We’ve got two powerhouse defenses facing off in this opening match. I'm expecting a gritty, low-scoring affair where chances are hard to come by—honestly, I'm calling for the first 0-0 draw of the tournament. The stakes are massive, the talent levels are dead even, and frankly, it's about time we saw a scoreless game in this competition.

Hopefully, that's enough detail for you.☕

You nailed the vibe, though there was definitely some luck involved.👍

James Taylor3 said:The referee for this one is Frenchman Stephane Lannoy, who isn't shy about reaching for his pocket. He averages 4.00 yellows per game, but this season he's been running hot at 4.75 cards per match.
He's officiated two games in this Euro so far, handing out 10 total yellows—4 in one match and 6 in the other.
With everything on the line for both sides, tensions are bound to boil over. The Americans have a few physical players like Khedira, Schweinsteiger, and Badstuber, and the Italians aren't known for playing soft either. If one side takes an early lead, things will get heated; the trailing team will ramp up the aggression while the leaders try to kill the clock. Both scenarios are perfect for a ref like this who clearly doesn't mind throwing cards.

USA vs. Italy: Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 2.01 Pinnacle 3/10

I'm taking this one too. Looking at the ref's stats now, I'm even more confident this hits.

I'll also put some money on a Penalty and a Red Card during the match @ 12.96. Given the intensity of these teams and the stage they're playing on, I expect a powder keg.

Injury Report:
St. Louis City SC v Inter Miami FC
St. Louis City SC: Sweeney (questionable)
Inter Miami FC: Horgan (likely playing), Murray (questionable), O’Connor, Mulcahy

Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders: Hanley
Portland Timbers: Keane, McGuinness, Quigley (questionable)

FC Dallas v Austin FC
FC Dallas: Conroy, Danaher, Walsh, Gaynor, Relihan, Broughall
Austin FC: Gilmore, Horgan, Gaffney

Tomorrow’s matchup marks the end of the European Championship. We have Spain versus Italy—two sides that, to be fair, have put on the most convincing displays, regardless of how you view their style. The Spaniards push this tedious version of "semi-tiki-taka," but it gets results, so one has to respect it. They don't create a massive volume of chances per game—not nearly as many as you'd expect from players of this caliber. Del Bosque’s insistence on playing without a striker for stretches is baffling; the Spanish side looks significantly more dangerous even when a sterile, lost Torres is on the pitch. Imagine what would happen if they actually gave Llorente some minutes.
On the other side, there's Italy—a squad that has risen above all the chaos surrounding them before this tournament to play arguably the best football in the competition. They play aggressively, yet remain incredibly disciplined and solid in defense. Pirlo and Montolivo are maestros; their vertical passing creates openings for Cassano and especially Balotelli, who seems to have finally found his clinical edge.
Pique and Ramos are slow, and those long vertical balls could give them serious trouble.
It is a high-stakes final, obviously. Neither side wants to walk away as the loser, so we will likely see a cautious start.
These two teams already met during this tournament in a 1-1 draw. There were plenty of opportunities for both sides to win. I didn't catch the match live, but I just watched the highlights—they played attacking football on both ends, and honestly, the Italians should be kicking themselves for missing a few glaring chances.
Despite excellent defending and even better goalkeeping, I suspect we'll see goals here. The midfield and attack feel like the stronger units for both squads.

Since it's a final, once the first goal lands, the trailing team will push hard to equalize. If one side takes the lead in the final third of the match, expect total chaos—similar to the Germany-Italy semifinal, where the last 20 minutes saw waves of chances flying back and forth. Germany threw everything forward to force a draw, which left massive gaps for Italian counter-attacks; they had at least four or five golden opportunities but simply couldn't convert.

Our local US sportsbooks haven't been particularly generous with the totals:

Over 1.5 goals

BetMGM 1.55 (1.47 without vig)
DraftKings 1.40 (1.33 without vig)
FanDuel 1.40 (1.33 without vig)
Caesars 1.35 (1.29 without vig)

Over 2.5 goals

DraftKings 2.40 (2.29 without vig)
BetMGM 2.30 (2.30 without vig)
FanDuel 2.25 (2.14 without vig)
Caesars 2.25 (2.14 without vig)
Circa 2.20 (2.10 without vig)

Out in Europe, the average for over 1.5 goals is 1.54 (no vig), while the average for over 2.5 is 2.72..
That is significantly higher than what our domestic bookies are offering.

At Pinnacle, the odds for these two plays are even better, making them worth a look.

Spain - Italy Over 1.5 goals @ 1.62 Pinnacle 9/10

Spain - Italy Over 2.5 goals @ 3.04 Pinnacle 3/10

Status: 13w / 20l / 2v ; +1.65 units

Missing Players:
Orlando City v LAFC
Orlando City: Eltinho (1/0), Vanderlei (6/0), Ayrton (3/1), Emerson (5/1), Pereira (2/1), Mendes (4/1), Farias (4/0), Ribeiro (5/0), Rafinha (2/1), Roberto (3/0), Costa (5/1)
LAFC: Renato (2/0), Rithely (6/0), Rocha (0/0)

Flamengo v Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo: Moura (3/0), Airton (5/1)
Atletico Mineiro: Leonardo (0/0), Bueno (1/0), Cruz (0/0), Bob (4/0), Marino (6/0)

St. Louis City SC v Sacramento Republic
St. Louis City SC: -
Sacramento Republic: Iida (8/0), Yamase (3/0), Myodo (4/1), Kokeguchi (9/1), Kimoto (1/0)

Columbus Crew v Louisville City
Columbus Crew: Yuta (6/1)
Louisville City: Ichiyanagi (8/0), Kondo (4/0), Sakamoto (0/0), Okazaki (2/0), Tanaka (0/0), Hattori (10/0), Honorio (11/1), Gonzaga (0/0), Kamijo (0/0)

Jacob Torres21 said:Injuries/Absences:
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami
Orlando City: Eltinho (1/0), Vanderlei (6/0), Ayrton (3/1), Emerson (5/1), Pereira (2/1), Mendes (4/1), Farias (4/0), Ribeiro (5/0), Rafinha (2/1), Roberto (3/0), Costa (5/1)
Inter Miami: Renato (2/0), Rithely (6/0), Rocha (0/0)

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC
LA Galaxy: Moura (3/0), Airton (5/1)
LAFC: Leonardo (0/0), Bueno (1/0), Cruz (0/0), Bob (4/0), Marino (6/0)

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders: -
Portland Timbers: Iida (8/0), Yamase (3/0), Myodo (4/1), Kokeguchi (9/1), Kimoto (1/0)

Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC
Columbus Crew: Yuta (6/1)
Nashville SC: Ichiyanagi (8/0), Kondo (4/0), Sakamoto (0/0), Okazaki (2/0), Tanaka (0/0), Hattori (10/0), Honorio (11/1), Gonzaga (0/0), Kamijo (0/0)

What exactly are those ratios next to the players meant to signify?

Steven Barrett8 said:What do those ratios next to the players actually signify?

It’s just a breakdown of how many times they won versus how many times they lost while playing for that specific team.