Soccer Betting

Keith Moore21 said:It doesn't change much, though Emery did coach teams like Sevilla and Valencia before... he’s never actually managed Barca... 😉

Of course it was a typo, thanks for pointing that out... 🙂

Celtic vs. Benfica: 2-1

Why though?
Is there really a difference between a matchup like LA Galaxy vs. Porto or Celtic vs. Braga?
If so—what actually sets them apart?
Well, the Galaxy played behind closed doors—no fans at all—but Celtic’s stadium is going to be packed and the atmosphere will be electric. That’s a huge factor right there.
Anything else?
Is Porto actually better than Benfica? Hard to say. Especially without Hulk in the lineup. We saw last night that Jackson just isn't anywhere near his level.
Benfica has an incredible squad—honestly, they're at least on par with Porto, maybe even better. I wouldn't be surprised if they take the title this season.
So, Celtic or LA Galaxy? I’m not convinced Celtic is significantly better than the Galaxy—if they're even better at all.
The gap in quality between yesterday's pair and today's is pretty slim.
So why wouldn't a Benfica win be considered good value?
Of course it is!

Cheers and good luck! 👍

lonetiger17 said:Celtic vs. Benfica 2

But why exactly...
Is there really any difference between a matchup like Seattle Sounders vs. Porto or maybe Celtic vs. Braga?
If there is, what actually sets them apart...
Sure, the Sounders played in an empty stadium yesterday, whereas Celtic's place will be packed and the energy will be electric, so I get that. That’s a massive factor.
But beyond that?
Is Porto actually better than Benfica? It's debatable, especially without Hulk in the lineup. We saw last night that Jackson isn't even in the same league when it comes to pure quality...
Benfica has a fantastic squad, at least on par with Porto, if not better, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them take the title this season.
So, Celtic or Seattle? I'm not entirely convinced Celtic is significantly better than Seattle, or if they're even better at all...
The gap in quality between yesterday's match and today's pair sits somewhere in the middle...
Given all that, why shouldn't a Benfica win be considered good value?
Of course it should be!

Good luck to everyone! 👍

What else do they have in common? Well, neither Porto nor Benfica managed to pull off a win in their last three away trips against either Seattle or Celtic... I can't say for certain about Benfica, though; they didn't even manage to find the back of the net in those three games, and you can't underestimate how much the home crowd matters. Seattle had zero atmosphere yesterday because the stands were empty, but Celtic is going to have massive support behind them. I'm just not sure if that constitutes as much "value" as everyone seems to be claiming... if it truly were that much value, Benfica would have a 55-60% chance of winning here, which means they'd win three out of every five matches... In my view, the odds are pretty realistic; neither Porto nor Benfica are such massive European giants that they should be overwhelming favorites whenever they travel... Good luck!

Richard Young10 said:They also have this in common—neither Porto nor Benfica managed a win in their last three away games against Dinamo—well, actually, let's say against Celtic... I'm not totally sure about Benfica, since they couldn't even find the back of the net in those three matches, and the fans really matter. Dinamo didn't have any kind of home-field advantage yesterday, whereas Celtic is going to have massive crowd support. I'm not convinced there's as much "value" here as everyone claims; if that were true, Benfica would have a 55-60% chance of winning, which basically means winning three out of five games. To me, the odds look fair—neither Porto nor Benfica are such massive giants that they should be overwhelming favorites when playing away in Europe. Good luck!

The Celtic squad from last year or even six years ago isn't the same team we're looking at now. That’s why digging up old head-to-head stats doesn't make sense—it's just the same name on the jersey, but two completely different rosters playing in totally different environments.
Celtic only made it into the Champions League because of how the Scottish coefficient works and because Rangers hit such a massive financial slump. Last year, they wouldn't have even seen the Europa League if UEFA hadn't kicked Sion out—and Sion totally outplayed them.
Benfica played brilliantly in the Champions League last season.
This season, if Benfica wants to advance, they absolutely have to pick up points here.
It's a similar situation to Porto.
They've got Spartak in the group (Porto has Kyiv) and Barca (Porto has PSG)—teams they'll be fighting with to move forward. If Barca is a lock, then it comes down to Spartak.
Anyone who slips up against Celtic will likely fail in the overall standings.
Just like anyone who slips up against Dinamo Chicago will end up failing overall.

My take isn't a call to bet or anything—I'm just trying to help out and share what I'm personally leaning towards...

Good luck! 👍

I suppose I’m feeling "confident" about just two picks tonight...

Chelsea vs. Juventus: Over 2.5 at 1.70 or Over 3.5 at 1.20
I don't really see how this could end with fewer than three goals, though I guess it’s hard to say for sure. I find it difficult to believe anyone would risk everything for just one more goal; it's better to play it safe. These teams are essentially their own biggest rivals, and honestly, a single point for either side feels like a decent result. Plus, both clubs tend to play quite defensively in European competitions, and when they face each other... well... even if Juventus caught me off guard this season, they are still such a pleasure to watch.

Bayern Munich vs. Valencia: Home Win at 1.50
After reading through Eric Fox7's analysis, I started to think that perhaps even Providence is on the side of the Bavarians, given their current statistics. One only needs to watch a single Bayern match to realize what kind of machine they truly are.

I might also consider adding Shakhtar and Manchester United.
The guys over at the local sports bar know that against these underdogs from Denmark, they really ought to secure all six points—meaning a home win is practically mandatory. Since you can't rely on anything when playing against Juve or Chelsea, especially away from home, those three points should be an easy grab. As for the English side, I suspect they'll be chasing glory tonight, trying to prove who the real powerhouse is after last season's disappointment. I also wouldn't mind looking at the over options for goals compared to the semifinals; maybe 1.5+ at 2.10 or even 3.5+ at 2.40.

Personally, I would try my best to avoid Braga, Benfica, and Lille...
Lilleif they win, it will likely be something tight like 1-0, which seems to be their style in Europe lately. At odds of 1.45, I suppose it isn't a bad way to spend the match.
Celtic vs. Benficais totally, completely unrealistic in my opinion. Anything could happen there, so a realistic coefficient might be closer to 2.90 or 3.00. Why Benfica is considered a hidden favorite is something only the analysts at ESPN would know, because I certainly don't. Now, while Celtic isn't exactly dominating the Scottish league, this isn't some random mid-season game; it's the opening round of the Champions League. A full stadium, intense atmosphere... Celtic has been preparing for a moment like this for two or three years now since they haven't been at the top level. But, well, we shall see.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Manchester United vs. Galatasaray: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.15
Look, Galatasaray is a powerhouse—honestly, they might even be the best squad out there from the last few seasons...
They’ve got that veteran experience, and their quality is pretty much deep across the board with some seriously elite talent. Right now? Their midfield and attack are absolutely cooking.
The Turkish Super Lig is a totally different beast compared to European competition, but in a group like this, Galatasaray definitely has a legitimate shot at finishing as runners-up.
If Erik ten Hag decides to rotate the squad, then yeah, the visitors have a real opening. But if he rolls out the heavy hitters? Man Utd is almost certainly dropping two or three goals on them. And let's be real, Galatasaray is good enough to find the back of the net at least once.
There's plenty of value here for the over and total goals—4+ looks like a solid play at 2.15 odds.
United has been absolute machines, scoring more goals in the Premier League through the first four rounds than anyone else.
Historically speaking, teams from Turkey always seem to end up getting absolutely shredded when they step foot into Old Trafford.

Oct 20, 1993, UEFA Champions League, Man Utd vs. Galatasaray 3:3
Dec 07, 1994, UEFA Champions League, Man Utd vs. Galatasaray 4:0
Oct 30, 1996, UEFA Champions League, Man Utd vs. Fenerbahce 0:1
Sep 28, 2004, UEFA Champions League, Man Utd vs. Fenerbahce 6:2
Nov 25, 2009, UEFA Champions League, Man Utd vs. Besiktas 0:1

Okan Buruk is telling everyone they're heading out there just to grab a result, though he’s clearly aiming to make history by being the third team from Turkey to actually pull off a win at Old Trafford.

People are really sleeping on Chelsea tonight. Sure, those Italian clubs might be dominating their own league, but they’re stepping into one of the toughest away matches in this tournament—especially after being out of the Champions League for a few years... that kind of absence definitely leaves its mark on a squad. Besides, Chelsea isn't struggling at all; they've been playing solid football, Hazard has leveled up the talent, and now we get a rested Mata back in the mix. At 2.50, that's a pretty sweet price for a single bet...

Checking out the Tottenham situation for tomorrow. They’re playing the injury card hard—it looks like the entire starting lineup is sidelined. Probably just going to roll out some benchwarmers against Lazio. I'd look into how Lazio is lining up and then maybe take the x2. Honestly, there aren't any smart parlays on the menu tomorrow. Maybe Athletic B, Levante, and Napoli. Everything else is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool trips up in Bern, too. If you've actually watched them this season, you know what I mean. Liverpool and Milan are basically carbon copies of each other.

brightviper173 said:I was just looking over the Tottenham lineup for tomorrow, and honestly, it looks like a disaster zone... they’ve got basically their entire starting eleven listed under "injuries." I have a feeling they’re going to roll out a bunch of benchwarmers against Lazio. If I were you, I'd take a close look at how Lazio is planning to line up first, then maybe aim for a quick x2 bet. To be honest, there aren't many smart parlay options on the table tomorrow. Maybe Athletic Bilbao, Levante, and Napoli could work, but everything else is just asking for trouble. I wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool trips up in Bern, too. If you've actually watched them play this season, you'll know exactly what I mean... Liverpool and AC Milan are practically carbon copies of one another at this point.

Word on the street is that Napoli might swap out their entire squad tomorrow as well, so definitely double-check that before you put any money down, because I can't say for sure...😉

brightviper173 said:Checking out the Tottenham game for tomorrow. They’re totally wiped—looks like the entire starting lineup is on the injury list. I bet they just throw a bunch of benchwarmers at Lazio. You gotta see how Lazio lines up first, then maybe hammer a 2x parlay. Honestly, there aren't any smart plays tomorrow. Maybe Athletic Bilbao, Levante, and Napoli. Everything else is a total joke. I wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool chokes in Bern. If you've actually watched them this season, you know what I mean. Liverpool and AC Milan are basically carbon copies of each other right now.

Tomorrow should have some decent action too. Two or three solid plays with good odds, but we'll see about that tomorrow. 😉

Tottenham and Lazio... neither team gives a damn about the Europa League. Though I think Lazio cares slightly less, so they might actually field a decent squad. We'll see once the lineups drop.

I wouldn't say Chelsea is being underrated; I think they’re just a very realistic contender here...
It seems unlikely the Italians will drop the ball tonight.☕
In my opinion, this is going to be a tough one—really hard to call.
Maybe
To me, Shakhtar and Bayern are easily the cleanest teams in the mix......................😛

Why is everyone acting like Juventus is a lock? They aren’t playing Southampton, and Chelsea is actually legit. To me, those 1.40 odds for a straight win feel like a total scam—like some old guy in a basement set them just to mess with us. 🙂

I put both teams to score on a little parlay. Odds are 1.70. This isn't that old-school Juventus from the Cannavaro and Thuram era where they could just shut everyone out whenever they felt like it. Chelsea keeps scoring plenty, but they’re leaking goals too. The odds look decent. Honestly, I'd rather bet on both sides finding the net than try to guess who actually walks away with the win.

Kenneth Ward said:Today's double:

Bayern vs. Valencia Home win, 1.5@SS
A lot of people have already weighed in on this matchup, but here’s my take. This year's German champions are looking even more formidable than last season, whereas Valencia, despite some smart signings, is currently struggling with a massive injury bug. The home side is only missing Gomez, but honestly, our local star center has stepped up and covered him perfectly. It is always crucial to secure a win in the first leg, and I don't see the Bavarians playing any games with this one.

Shakhtar vs. Nordsjaelland Home win, 1.3@SS
The Ukrainian champions are the clear favorites here. They have the Champions League experience, an objectively superior roster, and a serious chip on their shoulder after getting knocked out of the group stage last year—something they definitely didn't plan for. On the other hand, the Danes are making their debut. While they aren't dealing with major injuries, they do have a slight handicap: they lost a derby against Copenhagen last Saturday, blowing their lead in the final minutes. They don't exactly have a deep bench, so fatigue is likely going to start biting at them.

Bayern 2:1
Shakhtar 2:0
👍

wiredmarlin29 said:I wouldn't go so far as to say Chelsea is being underrated. It’s more like they're just a very realistic option on the table.
It’s hard to see the Italians losing tonight. Honestly, can you even imagine that happening?☕
In my opinion, that was a tough one. A real grind. Not exactly the kind of game you'd call "exciting," right?
Pure magic.

To me, Schalke and Bayern are just the purest teams out there...😛

It happened...☕
Chelsea X?☕

Did you see what Bate Borisov did? He basically crushed 90% of the bettors at the sportsbook. How does someone even pull that off? It’s wild.🤷

Yesterday was basically a payday for the sportsbooks everywhere...

Kudos to the Celtics for that gritty performance last night. They weren't really in the running, but they played some lockdown defense and didn't give Benfica an inch. Benfica had maybe two real openings, but that was about it.
You could really feel the energy from the home crowd—when a stadium is packed like that, it changes everything for the players. Man, I wish my local team had that kind of atmosphere.

What’s the consensus on Porto today? It’s Maribor vs. Porto, and the odds look totally even—I don't get it. Am I missing something? I caught the Maribor game, and they looked pretty rough. Porto just got knocked out by Malaga in the Champions League qualifiers. They lost 0-2 away and tied 0-0 at home. But since Malaga absolutely crushed Zenit, that probably makes Porto's loss look a bit better than it actually was.

I'd love to hear what you guys think about this matchup, and also how you're reading the rest of today's slate.

We've gotta pull off a win today to make up for yesterday! 👍

The squad's looking thin for Thursday's matchup against the Bern in the Europa League. Big names like Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Jose Reina, Glen Johnson, Martin Skrtel, Daniel Agger, Joe Allen, and Martin Kelly are all staying home.

Six key players are skipping the trip to Israel. Star striker Falcao, Arda, Gabi, Gudin, and Luis won't be there. Plus, Tiago is out on suspension.

Interesting.

Bryan Adams6 said:Interesting.

Honestly, guessing specific scores today is a waste of time. Just bet on both teams to score or whatever. Anyone hitting 4 or 5 outcomes today is a legend. Best move is probably looking at the German or Dutch leagues for some overs, maybe catch an Athletic Bilbao game too.

One aggressive pick:


And one slightly less aggressive 😁



Inter vs. Rubin X2 (Rubin to score)
Inter seems—well, let's just say they aren't taking this tournament seriously. Their loss against the guys from Miami (huge props to them, honestly, but still...) and that home draw against Vaslui says it all. It feels like the Premier League is their only real priority right now. Rubin is a bit hit-or-miss—very hot and cold lately—but I think they’re capable of walking away with at least a point, if not a goal, which is what I’m putting on my second slip.

Udinese vs. Anzhi 2 (X2)
Similar vibe to Inter here; I suspect Udinese is much more focused on their domestic league (which they started off in, frankly, a total disaster) than this Champions League stuff 😁
The big spenders from Makhachkala have a solid squad and have been playing pretty well—they're actually riding a five-game winning streak.

Bordeaux vs. Brugge 1 (1X)
My favorite French side—not exactly in peak form right now, but still—facing off against a mediocre Belgian team. Even though this smells like a draw to me, I feel compelled to play it (though I did cover myself with the draw on my other ticket)

FCK vs. Molde 1
Copenhagen is having a rough time. After years of being the big dogs, they missed out on the title and had a rather unfortunate exit in the Champions League qualifiers. This competition matters to them—they've got enough quality in their domestic league to reclaim the trophy and fight on multiple fronts.

Sporting vs. Basel X2 (Basel to score)

Basel was such a pleasant surprise in last year's Champions League, but they got knocked out this year by some very good Romanian sides. Now they're traveling to face Sporting, who have had an absolutely abysmal start to their season. A team that managed to knock Man United out of the Champions League last season should definitely be able to avoid defeat in Lisbon, or at the very least, find the back of the net (which is my play on the second ticket).

Twente vs. Hannover over 2.5 goals
Twente—21 goals in their last 5 games (averaging 4.2 per game)
Hannover—34 goals in their last 6 games (averaging 5.66 per game) 😲

Bayer vs. Metalist over 2.5 goals
Bayer—out of their last 7 games, 6 went over
Metalist—out of their last 6 games, 5 went over

Lyon vs. Sparta 1
At this point, it really just comes down to how the Lions are approaching this tournament, because there's no denying the gap in pure talent.

Bryan Adams6 said:intriguing

There is nothing particularly intriguing to be found here. Such developments are entirely predictable, especially considering Manchester United is hosting their local derby this Saturday; much like a chess player preparing for a major tournament, any sensible manager would prioritize accordingly. This is arguably the most critical fixture for Liverpool early in the season. In my estimation, betting today offers little value, as most teams are rotating heavily due to upcoming domestic clashes. If one insists on finding an edge, these are the only plays worth considering:

Napoli to win.
Liverpool under 2.5 goals.
Half the squad stays home to prepare for the Manchester United derby.
Athletic Bilbao to win.
The sheer quality of Bilbao makes it unlikely they wouldn't secure all three points, even with a secondary lineup.
Both teams to score.
I find it doubtful that Aston Villa will field their strongest XI; their primary focus this year is clearly the Premier League... and observing Tottenham's rather comical defensive line only increases my affinity for their opponent.
Leverkusen... both teams to score.
It is merely a feeling, as I have serious doubts about a Leverkusen blowout or even a straightforward victory. Metalist is a capable side; they can certainly find the back of the net.
Twente... over 2.5 goals.
lonetiger17 summarized the situation perfectly in his previous post.
Udinese both teams to score.
I view this as a reliable outcome, given Udinese’s disastrous start to the season and the fact that Anzhi is arriving with their premier squad. I suspect we might see a 1-1 or 1-2 result.
Newcastle... both teams to score.
A reserve squad facing an average side usually invites plenty of scoring opportunities.
And that is the framework. Nothing too heavy-handed.