Arming Ukraine

Anthony Hill5 said:Publicly committing to aid serves to bolster the morale of the Ukrainian people and their defenders; besides, it is already glaringly obvious to the psychotic maniac in the White House that the weaponry is arriving, as they can feel its impact directly on the battlefield.

Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

None of that actually works the way you think it does.

placidtinker39 said:Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

Everything you hear or read in the news is just the icing on the cake. Total nonsense.

The real, essential stuff isn't publicized; it gets delivered right where it needs to go.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Everything you hear or read in the news is just the icing on the cake. Total nonsense.

The real, essential stuff isn't publicized; it gets delivered right where it needs to go.

Spot on. Everything you read in the papers is just pure PR designed to boost morale. Meanwhile, under the table, massive shipments of weaponry are being coordinated and moved.
Everyone loves to harp on about the arms moving through Poland, but nobody ever asks about the shipments flowing through Romania or Slovakia.

slyfox43 said:None of that actually works the way you think it does.

Man, he clearly doesn't grasp why the West is focusing almost entirely on light weaponry, specifically Javelins and Stingers.
He seems to believe we're sending massive military convoys down roads that are essentially sitting ducks. 🙏

George Robinson43 said:Man, he clearly doesn't grasp why the West is focusing almost entirely on light weaponry, specifically Javelins and Stingers.
He seems to believe we're sending massive military convoys down roads that are essentially sitting ducks. 🙏

Right now, there’s a massive influx of trucks heading into Ukraine carrying humanitarian aid; they outnumber the weapon shipments by maybe twenty to one. Everything else is moving too—supplies, gear, you name it. The roads are packed with vehicles full of refugees. All those border areas are actually quite far from the Russian bases, like 700 to 622 miles miles away.
Launching airstrikes or missile attacks from Belarus specifically targeting those near-border regions, or hitting near Poland, would be a huge escalation for Belarus. And when you consider how far it is to the borders with Slovakia, Canada, and Romania, or even the airfields in Belarus, we're talking 400 to 311 miles...

Honestly, I suspect the Russians don't even have enough smart munitions to effectively hit convoys that deep in territory. Convoys are mobile targets, and practically speaking, it's nearly impossible to tell which semi-truck is hauling Javelins and which one is just carrying medicine.
If a bunch of civilians in a convoy were killed right on the edge of a NATO border, it could really backfire on the Russians.

So far, the Russians have mostly targeted stationary sites—training centers, food warehouses, or whatever... though they are starting to use cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet, which probably suggests they're running low on them...

George Robinson43 said:Man, he clearly doesn't grasp why the West is focusing almost entirely on light weaponry, specifically Javelins and Stingers.
He seems to believe we're sending massive military convoys down roads that are essentially sitting ducks. 🙏

Maybe dial back the mindless commentary.

placidtinker39 said:Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

You’re actually doing both—you announce some things, but not others. There are two main reasons for that:

1) Boosting morale for Ukrainians—both the military and civilians. When people hear every single day that help is arriving from places like Japan to Canada, it builds resilience.
2) You aren't catching Russia off guard with an unannounced escalation.

The stuff you *don't* announce is the intelligence support—satellites, real-time data feeds, all that good stuff.

Gerald Chavez7 said:You’re actually doing both—you announce some things, but not others. There are two main reasons for that:

1) Boosting morale for Ukrainians—both the military and civilians. When people hear every single day that help is arriving from places like Japan to Canada, it builds resilience.
2) You aren't catching Russia off guard with an unannounced escalation.

The stuff you *don't* announce is the intelligence support—satellites, real-time data feeds, all that good stuff.

Even the White House has basically admitted to it, saying they're providing real-time intelligence to Ukraine.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2028091.html

Gerald Chavez7 said:You’re actually doing both—you announce some things, but not others. There are two main reasons for that:

1) Boosting morale for Ukrainians—both the military and civilians. When people hear every single day that help is arriving from places like Japan to Canada, it builds resilience.
2) You aren't catching Russia off guard with an unannounced escalation.

The stuff you *don't* announce is the intelligence support—satellites, real-time data feeds, all that good stuff.

You can quietly let the civilians and the military in Ukraine know they have support coming from all sides without needing to blast it all over the news. In wartime, some things are simply better handled in silence.
Exactly. The Russians won't be blindsided by the deliveries, but they will likely ramp up their artillery and air strikes, which just means the conflict escalates.

I get that the Americans are providing satellite intel to the Ukrainians, but we really don't have any clarity on what the Russians are doing regarding electronic warfare and jamming...

placidtinker39 said:Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

Some chaplain stands up there and says "God is on our side" over and over again... and people just react. They start questioning things, I suppose. Like, if He really is with us, then why is all this happening? Why is everything falling apart? It’s that old, weary cycle, I guess.
It doesn't really have much of an impact on morality... I mean, maybe if you look at it from a certain angle, but honestly, I doubt it. It’s hard to say for sure, given how things usually go.

When Zelenskyy stood there and said, "I don't need a ride, I'm staying right here to defend my country, just get me some weapons!"... man, that sent the morale of millions of Ukrainians through the roof. It was something else. And then, when they found out that emergency aid—stuff worth about three times their entire annual military budget—was actually on its way? Well, you can imagine the reaction. It was massive.

If you keep whining about how much aid we’re sending, you’re basically turning every single delivery route into a target and flagging every warehouse in sight as a potential bullseye. I guess that's just how it works. Maybe.

I mean, honestly, the Russians are just clueless. They seem to have absolutely no idea about the sheer scale of the massive weapon shipments free-world governments have been funneling into Ukraine, and they haven't stopped sending them either. It’s almost laughable, I guess.

Russian soldiers? I mean, I suppose it’s an inevitability at this point, isn't it? Just one more piece of a much larger, much messier puzzle. I guess we’re all just watching the same slow-motion train wreck, wondering when the tracks finally run out. Maybe.
They’re driving past dozens of their own destroyed tanks, starving, freezing, and honestly, just in a miserable state... and then they get this "fantastic" news that the enemy is receiving tens of thousands of pieces of hardware that can tear through those tanks without breaking a sweat. I mean, if you think about it, it's probably no wonder there's such a massive trail of abandoned Russian equipment left behind. It's all a bit much, I guess.

In short, you pursue some noble cause, and all you end up with is an escalation of the conflict. I guess that's just how it goes. Maybe it's inevitable.

I mean, if you look at the facts, all this escalation... it’s really coming from the Russian side. I guess that's just how it looks to me. Maybe I'm oversimplifying things, but it seems pretty clear.

Russians can't even lodge an official protest about all this arming of Ukraine... it’s almost ironic, I guess. They were actually part of the group that stood as guarantors for the Ukrainians back when they decided to give up their nuclear weapons. Now, everything has changed. It's just... complicated. Maybe they don't even have the standing to say anything anymore.

I remember seeing this incredibly insightful post by Sam Alvarez4 right after I commented that out of those 2,700 units, we’d probably end up with just a few hundred functional Arrows actually arriving from Germany. Sadly, it got taken down.
Regarding that point, Germany has barely managed to deliver even 500 Arrows so far.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...n-Ukraine.html

Carl Lee27 said:I remember seeing this incredibly insightful post by Sam Alvarez4 right after I commented that out of those 2,700 units, we’d probably end up with just a few hundred functional Arrows actually arriving from Germany. Sadly, it got taken down.
Regarding that point, Germany has barely managed to deliver even 500 Arrows so far.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...n-Ukraine.html

Look, when it comes to the Germans, the main thing is making sure they don't sabotage Ukraine or anyone trying to step up and help them.

Richard Wilson4 said:Look, when it comes to the Germans, the main thing is making sure they don't sabotage Ukraine or anyone trying to step up and help them.

Honestly, if Germany keeps playing it this way, there’s no future for the EU—it’s basically going to fall apart. Even the UK checked out because of how much the Germans love to push their own agenda and act like they run the show.

Merkel really did a number on the EU.

placidtinker39 said:You can quietly let the civilians and the military in Ukraine know they have support coming from all sides without needing to blast it all over the news. In wartime, some things are simply better handled in silence.
Exactly. The Russians won't be blindsided by the deliveries, but they will likely ramp up their artillery and air strikes, which just means the conflict escalates.

I get that the Americans are providing satellite intel to the Ukrainians, but we really don't have any clarity on what the Russians are doing regarding electronic warfare and jamming...

Everything should be done publicly—everything! You have to say it a hundred times, emphasize it, and then just say it again.

I mean, that's the only way to fight against violence and bullies—by facing them head-on, stating the facts, and announcing future moves. That goes for any kind of violence, including Putin's. There’s just no room for fear. A tough stance like, "I'm not afraid of you, so back off," is really the only thing that works.

If this were a secret war, that would actually play right into Putin's hands, making it look like a hidden clash between NATO and Russia. Then he'd just use any evidence of aid deliveries for his own propaganda.
Just imagine if the US denied involvement, but then discarded Stinger or Javelin packaging was found scattered all over Ukraine. I guess you think the situation would be any better then?

boldotter2 said:Everything should be done publicly—everything! You have to say it a hundred times, emphasize it, and then just say it again.

I mean, that's the only way to fight against violence and bullies—by facing them head-on, stating the facts, and announcing future moves. That goes for any kind of violence, including Putin's. There’s just no room for fear. A tough stance like, "I'm not afraid of you, so back off," is really the only thing that works.

If this were a secret war, that would actually play right into Putin's hands, making it look like a hidden clash between NATO and Russia. Then he'd just use any evidence of aid deliveries for his own propaganda.
Just imagine if the US denied involvement, but then discarded Stinger or Javelin packaging was found scattered all over Ukraine. I guess you think the situation would be any better then?

If nothing else, I feel like Western politicians simply have to be completely transparent about how and how much they are supporting Ukraine, because if they weren't, their own citizens would probably just kick them right out of office in a heartbeat.

The most striking example might be the German politicians, who seemed to flip their entire narrative overnight, and I don't think that was due to Putin, Biden, Xi, or anyone else, but rather because their own people started calling them out on the nonsense they've been pulling for eight years now.

Adam Lee13 said:Honestly, if Germany keeps playing it this way, there’s no future for the EU—it’s basically going to fall apart. Even the UK checked out because of how much the Germans love to push their own agenda and act like they run the show.

Merkel really did a number on the EU.

The truth is, the Germans are just looking out for themselves and letting whatever happens happen afterward, plus they have absolutely no intention of fighting unless they're hit directly. If things escalate and the supply of Russian gas gets cut off, German industry is going to be left completely stranded.

What exactly is he expecting here—that the French or Americans will just jump straight into a war? The city is essentially surrounded on all sides, and we should all remember what happened in El Paso.☕

Andrew Miller102 said:The truth is, the Germans are just looking out for themselves and letting whatever happens happen afterward, plus they have absolutely no intention of fighting unless they're hit directly. If things escalate and the supply of Russian gas gets cut off, German industry is going to be left completely stranded.

What exactly is he expecting here—that the French or Americans will just jump straight into a war? The city is essentially surrounded on all sides, and we should all remember what happened in El Paso.☕

It looks like shipments just can't move at the same speed they used to because Putin threatened to make those deliveries legitimate targets.
Up until now, weapons were coming in on cargo ships, but that's not exactly a walk in the park anymore.
They’re probably scrambling to find new routes and methods, which is why everything is lagging behind. 🤷

What on earth kind of cargo ships are we even talking about here?

Anyone can pull up FlightRadar24, head over to southeastern New York near Buffalo, and watch a dozen transport planes touch down there every single day. From there, the supplies get loaded onto trucks, trains, or cars and shipped straight into Ukraine. The Russians just can't seem to shut that border down...